Are we Heading for another Lockout?

[tlance]

Players and owners each have an option to terminate the current CBA at the end of next season. Given how high the current salary cap has risen and the ludicrous contracts about to be awarded to marginal players, I am fearful that there may be another lockout. If not in 2017, then almost certainly in 2021 when the CBA expires.

When these work stoppages happen, the general public always seems to blame the "greedy players" who make too much money. Just watch over the next few days though. See what ridiculous contracts get offerred. There will be plenty.

Before blaming the players, however, remember that the out of control salaries in the NBA is 100% on the owners. If nobody were willing to offer DeMarr DeRozan and Hassan Whiteside 25 Million, they would not get that much. Those guys are good, but unworthy of a max contract that should be reserved for the truly elite players in the league.

If owners didn't overspend on guys like these and player contracts were relatively in line with player value, we would have no issues. A non elite all star like DeRozan might make $20 million. That would allow 3rd tier guys to fit in around 12-15 and key rotational role players to be more in the 5-10 million range.

Instead, everyone except the elite gets paid more than they are worth when they hit free agency. As tempting as it is to throw insults at these overpaid players, remember, it is the owners that are mismanaging their teams and offering too much money. It will also be the owners bitching about how they aren't making profits.

You can't have it both ways! Don't complain about out of control salaries if you can't show restraint when bidding on players.

 

[bksballer89]

Is there any doubt? I felt like we all knew this was coming since the last lockout

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

Yes, very little doubt.
I'll bet Gilbert is really looking forward to it.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Players and owners each have an option to terminate the current CBA at the end of next season. Given how high the current salary cap has risen and the ludicrous contracts about to be awarded to marginal players, I am fearful that there may be another lockout. If not in 2017, then almost certainly in 2021 when the CBA expires.

When these work stoppages happen, the general public always seems to blame the "greedy players" who make too much money. Just watch over the next few days though. See what ridiculous contracts get offerred. There will be plenty.

Before blaming the players, however, remember that the out of control salaries in the NBA is 100% on the owners. If nobody were willing to offer DeMarr DeRozan and Hassan Whiteside 25 Million, they would not get that much. Those guys are good, but unworthy of a max contract that should be reserved for the truly elite players in the league.

If owners didn't overspend on guys like these and player contracts were relatively in line with player value, we would have no issues. A non elite all star like DeRozan might make $20 million. That would allow 3rd tier guys to fit in around 12-15 and key rotational role players to be more in the 5-10 million range.

Instead, everyone except the elite gets paid more than they are worth when they hit free agency. As tempting as it is to throw insults at these overpaid players, remember, it is the owners that are mismanaging their teams and offering too much money. It will also be the owners bitching about how they aren't making profits.

You can't have it both ways! Don't complain about out of control salaries if you can't show restraint when bidding on players.

before when there was a lockout league revenues and the cap especially were pretty damn stagnant.

With the current explosion of revenue- and the money guys are getting- and the money owners must be making - is plenty to keep both sides happy I would hope.

it would be embarrasing to have a lockout/strike in a league so flush with cash and would prob look really really bad. I think Silver is more resolution oriented than Stern was- and the NBAPA actually has credible leadership for the first time in a long time. That should help things.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Yes, very little doubt.
I'll bet Gilbert is really looking forward to it.

say what you will about Dan G. but he wields a pretty damn big stick.

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

say what you will about Dan G. but he wields a pretty damn big stick.

Only when James is forcing him to.
That's FACT.

Like I just posted on the other thread, and in all seriousness, I doubt he'd be that upset if James left next year.
Both he and James are heroes forever.
You can only break the curse once.
My guess is the penalties for cap offenders will grow after the next lock out.
Maybe the owners next go round will try to find a better way to get the parity they wanted in 2010.

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

before when there was a lockout league revenues and the cap especially were pretty damn stagnant.

With the current explosion of revenue- and the money guys are getting- and the money owners must be making - is plenty to keep both sides happy I would hope.

it would be embarrasing to have a lockout/strike in a league so flush with cash and would prob look really really bad. I think Silver is more resolution oriented than Stern was- and the NBAPA actually has credible leadership for the first time in a long time. That should help things.

So you predict no lockout?

 

[WiggyRuss]

Only when James is forcing him to.
That's FACT.

Like I just posted on the other thread, and in all seriousness, I doubt he'd be that upset if James left next year.
Both he and James are heroes forever.
You can only break the curse once.
My guess is the penalties for cap offenders will grow after the next lock out.
Maybe the owners next go round will try to find a better way to get the parity they wanted in 2010.

first all of this is just so wrong.

forgive me- but i dont think you have really looked at this- or even smart enough in the first place to reason it out.

many of the new cba provisions- including the more punitive taxes- just recently came into existence- such that the repeater tax is not even an option-- on top of that- the cap is rising like crazy- with revenues- the penalties arent the problem- the problem is the cap rising so fast that teams are not at a level where they even need to contemplate lux tax payments for the most part yet.

what it comes down to due to the short amount of time and circumstance there is absolutely zero way to judge whether the changes to the cba will be effective in preventing "super teams" in the future of the league.

 

[WiggyRuss]

So you predict no lockout?

they wont miss any games....might there be a couple weeks where each side tries to use all the leverage they can and they take it to the farthest date they can before losing games and revenue? i think thats 50/50...but i think its highly highly unlikely any games are missed with how much cash is in the league.

when your cap is scheduled to go from 60 to about 110 in 3-4 years- it would be tough to sell it to the public that they couldnt come to an agreement to split that pie.

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

first all of this is just so wrong.

forgive me- but i dont think you have really looked at this- or even smart enough in the first place to reason it out.

many of the new cba provisions- including the more punitive taxes- just recently came into existence- such that the repeater tax is not even an option-- on top of that- the cap is rising like crazy- with revenues- the penalties arent the problem- the problem is the cap rising so fast that teams are not at a level where they even need to contemplate lux tax payments for the most part yet.

what it comes down to due to the short amount of time and circumstance there is absolutely zero way to judge whether the changes to the cba will be effective in preventing "super teams" in the future of the league.

You might be right.
We will see.
But , why would the penalties go down?
Aren't the Cavs paying $3.50-1 penalty next year?
Who knows what new type of penalties they are contemplating?


The cap rising just equates in pay raises for perceived lessor players because of % of cap space they can occupy, right?

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

they wont miss any games....might there be a couple weeks where each side tries to use all the leverage they can and they take it to the farthest date they can before losing games and revenue? i think thats 50/50...but i think its highly highly unlikely any games are missed with how much cash is in the league.

when your cap is scheduled to go from 60 to about 110 in 3-4 years- it would be tough to sell it to the public that they couldnt come to an agreement to split that pie.

I hope you are right

 

[lakersrule]

I don't know if it will last as long as to lead to a lockout, but the CBA will be renegotiated. The previous CBA was signed prior to the new multi-billion dollar TV deal. The owners were claiming that they were losing money and wanted to get some back from the players split. The players will want to get some of that back now.

 

[CitySushi]

Yeah I think there will be a huge fight on the new CBA, which could potentially lead to a lockout. It's not so simple as the Owners are making more and they will divide it up. It's about leverage. These owners are not stupid. They didn't make their billions by just conceding.

 

[Heatles84]

Players and owners each have an option to terminate the current CBA at the end of next season. Given how high the current salary cap has risen and the ludicrous contracts about to be awarded to marginal players, I am fearful that there may be another lockout. If not in 2017, then almost certainly in 2021 when the CBA expires.

When these work stoppages happen, the general public always seems to blame the "greedy players" who make too much money. Just watch over the next few days though. See what ridiculous contracts get offerred. There will be plenty.

Before blaming the players, however, remember that the out of control salaries in the NBA is 100% on the owners. If nobody were willing to offer DeMarr DeRozan and Hassan Whiteside 25 Million, they would not get that much. Those guys are good, but unworthy of a max contract that should be reserved for the truly elite players in the league.

If owners didn't overspend on guys like these and player contracts were relatively in line with player value, we would have no issues. A non elite all star like DeRozan might make $20 million. That would allow 3rd tier guys to fit in around 12-15 and key rotational role players to be more in the 5-10 million range.

Instead, everyone except the elite gets paid more than they are worth when they hit free agency. As tempting as it is to throw insults at these overpaid players, remember, it is the owners that are mismanaging their teams and offering too much money. It will also be the owners bitching about how they aren't making profits.

You can't have it both ways! Don't complain about out of control salaries if you can't show restraint when bidding on players.

Agree with everything you've said. A guy like Barnes should not be making around what Durant will be making next season. Same with Lebron - no one should be touching his salary. I also don't think Whiteside is worth $20+ mil per year. But the Heat are going to have to pay him that considering other teams like the Mavs and Lakers are going to offer him that figure.

 

[tlance]

Agree with everything you've said. A guy like Barnes should not be making around what Durant will be making next season. Same with Lebron - no one should be touching his salary. I also don't think Whiteside is worth $20+ mil per year. But the Heat are going to have to pay him that considering other teams like the Mavs and Lakers are going to offer him that figure.

It is a dilemma for owners for sure. All it takes is one schmuck to overpay and he market price is set. The Sixers have already said they are willing to give Barnes $22 million, which would be incredible dumb unless they view Simmons as a PG. any owner will have to go over 20 million to get a god player this year even if they know they aren't worth it.

Still though. It is the owners fault.

 

[Heatles84]

It is a dilemma for owners for sure. All it takes is one schmuck to overpay and he market price is set. The Sixers have already said they are willing to give Barnes $22 million, which would be incredible dumb unless they view Simmons as a PG. any owner will have to go over 20 million to get a god player this year even if they know they aren't worth it.

Still though. It is the owners fault.

Yeah, the market is going to make my team very average this season. Riley knows not to pay a vast majority of the guys what the market dictates, but he may be forced with someone like Horford - whom I can somewhat live with making close to $20 mil per.

As it relates to the 76ers - are we really surprised that they'd draft a guy like Simmons and then spend a max contract on Harrison Barnes? I could see them possibly plugging Simmons at the 4 given that he's 6'10. But yeah....bad moves all around.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Only when James is forcing him to.
That's FACT.

Like I just posted on the other thread, and in all seriousness, I doubt he'd be that upset if James left next year.
Both he and James are heroes forever.
You can only break the curse once.
My guess is the penalties for cap offenders will grow after the next lock out.
Maybe the owners next go round will try to find a better way to get the parity they wanted in 2010.

as far as parity goes-- was just listening to a pod cast---- the big markets? the Knicks- getting a meeting but FAR down Durant's list, LAL not getting a meeting, Brooklyn not getting a meeting, Washington not getting a meeting.

the favorites? OKC, SAS, GSW....

lately it seems that big free agents are not flocking to big markets, but flocking where they have the best chance to win- to teams that have the best situations on the court. I think thats what you want right?

 

[WiggyRuss]

Yeah, the market is going to make my team very average this season. Riley knows not to pay a vast majority of the guys what the market dictates, but he may be forced with someone like Horford - whom I can somewhat live with making close to $20 mil per.

As it relates to the 76ers - are we really surprised that they'd draft a guy like Simmons and then spend a max contract on Harrison Barnes? I could see them possibly plugging Simmons at the 4 given that he's 6'10. But yeah....bad moves all around.

i think Simmons is definitely a PF...

 

[True Lakers Fan]

Players and owners each have an option to terminate the current CBA at the end of next season. Given how high the current salary cap has risen and the ludicrous contracts about to be awarded to marginal players, I am fearful that there may be another lockout. If not in 2017, then almost certainly in 2021 when the CBA expires.

When these work stoppages happen, the general public always seems to blame the "greedy players" who make too much money. Just watch over the next few days though. See what ridiculous contracts get offerred. There will be plenty.

Before blaming the players, however, remember that the out of control salaries in the NBA is 100% on the owners. If nobody were willing to offer DeMarr DeRozan and Hassan Whiteside 25 Million, they would not get that much. Those guys are good, but unworthy of a max contract that should be reserved for the truly elite players in the league.

If owners didn't overspend on guys like these and player contracts were relatively in line with player value, we would have no issues. A non elite all star like DeRozan might make $20 million. That would allow 3rd tier guys to fit in around 12-15 and key rotational role players to be more in the 5-10 million range.

Instead, everyone except the elite gets paid more than they are worth when they hit free agency. As tempting as it is to throw insults at these overpaid players, remember, it is the owners that are mismanaging their teams and offering too much money. It will also be the owners bitching about how they aren't making profits.

You can't have it both ways! Don't complain about out of control salaries if you can't show restraint when bidding on players.

On the other hand, you have the greedy owners that wants to keep the salary cap at 62 million or 72 when in fact the NBA owners clearly have enough to spend two times that and still make an acceptable profit, so which set of greedy dogs do you root for? Screw them

 

[TheSnowdog]

Before blaming the players, however, remember that the out of control salaries in the NBA is 100% on the owners. If nobody were willing to offer DeMarr DeRozan and Hassan Whiteside 25 Million, they would not get that much. Those guys are good, but unworthy of a max contract that should be reserved for the truly elite players in the league.

And then the first thing the player's union would be yelling about is collusion

It is not all on the owners - players and the players union need to share part of the blame