Annual upset prediction

[rmilia1]

So it's that time again. I looked at all thec13/14/15/16 seeds and used advanced as tats and the eyeball test to see who had the best chance to pull an upset. In 2014 I landed on Mercer over Duke ( happened ), last year called Belmont over UVA (narrow miss). This year there really aren't any 15 or 16 seeds that have much of a shot but there are 3! 13 seeds that have better than a 26% chance of winning and 1 14 seed with a 21% chance. In order

1. Hawaii 32% to beat Cal
2. Iona 28% to beat ISU
3. UNC-W 26% to beat Duke
4. UW-GB 21% to beat TAMU

I like at least 2 of these 4 to happen but Hawaii over Cal is my pick. Rainbows by 5.

 

[DHoey]

No Stephen F Austin love?

 

[rmilia1]

No Stephen F Austin love?

They have only a 12% shot according to my model. I was kind of surprised because I thought they'd have the best odds of any 14

 

[ericd7633]

They have only a 12% shot according to my model. I was kind of surprised because I thought they'd have the best odds of any 14

I'm guessing your model is just more impressed with WVU than TAMU? Because I think Stephen F. Austin is better than UW-GB.

 

[dcZONAfan]

I'm guessing your model is just more impressed with WVU than TAMU? Because I think Stephen F. Austin is better than UW-GB.

I'm sure part of it is matchups too. WVU is just a much more talented/tested version of SFA in many ways (at least from what I've heard. Haven't watched SFA this year and know they haven't played a tough opponent in like 2 months, which never bodes well)

 

[ericd7633]

I'm sure part of it is matchups too. WVU is just a much more talented/tested version of SFA in many ways (at least from what I've heard. Haven't watched SFA this year and know they haven't played a tough opponent in like 2 months, which never bodes well)

Yeah agreed. I really wish the committee would have paired A&M and Stephen F. Austin. Makes too much sense for them to do that though.

 

[Cave_Johnson]

Hawaii and Iona were the two that caught my eye. I don't think Cal can take advantage of Hawaii's weaknesses and Iowa State is just playing like garbage lately.

 

[Blaise Winter]

Hawaii and Iona were the two that caught my eye.

Out of the 4 listed above, same here. Would love to see the other two (eff Duke, go GB!), but they both seem unlikely to me. Never did any real "crunching" before my bracket, so it's nice to see it square up with rmilia's "research."

 

[rmilia1]

I'm guessing your model is just more impressed with WVU than TAMU? Because I think Stephen F. Austin is better than UW-GB.

Yep. I've got TAMU 23rd in my model overall while WVU is 9th

 

[DHoey]

Yep. I've got TAMU 23rd in my model overall while WVU is 9th

I probably read to much into the absolute dismantling of LSU, but I got A&M in the sweet 16

 

[rmilia1]

I probably read to much into the absolute dismantling of LSU, but I got A&M in the sweet 16

So do I lol. I'm not predicting TAMU to lose. Simply saying they are the 3 seed with the best chance to lose

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

I am predicting Yale over Baylor. It's the only 5-12 that I think has a shot. All the other 12s got horrible matchups.

I don't like any of the 13s or 14s. Although I think there is an outside shot Weber State could beat Xavier.

 

[VFL1995]

So it's that time again. I looked at all thec13/14/15/16 seeds and used advanced as tats and the eyeball test to see who had the best chance to pull an upset. In 2014 I landed on Mercer over Duke ( happened ), last year called Belmont over UVA (narrow miss). This year there really aren't any 15 or 16 seeds that have much of a shot but there are 3! 13 seeds that have better than a 26% chance of winning and 1 14 seed with a 21% chance. In order

1. Hawaii 32% to beat Cal
2. Iona 28% to beat ISU
3. UNC-W 26% to beat Duke
4. UW-GB 21% to beat TAMU

I like at least 2 of these 4 to happen but Hawaii over Cal is my pick. Rainbows by 5.

I have Hawaii in the Sweet 16 and Iona beating Iowa State

 

[VFL1995]

I am predicting Yale over Baylor. It's the only 5-12 that I think has a shot. All the other 12s got horrible matchups.

I don't like any of the 13s or 14s. Although I think there is an outside shot Weber State could beat Xavier.

I agree

 

[The Derski]

It's going to be awesome when Cal beats Hawaii by 20...

 

[dcZONAfan]

I am predicting Yale over Baylor. It's the only 5-12 that I think has a shot. All the other 12s got horrible matchups.

I don't like any of the 13s or 14s. Although I think there is an outside shot Weber State could beat Xavier.

I think history is important here. Very unlikely Baylor gets upset 2 years in a row imo. There will be no overlooking Yale this year, and no rj hunter either

 

[dcZONAfan]

It's going to be awesome when Cal beats Hawaii by 20...

Nah Hawaii is pretty good. While I think Cal wins, I also think it will be very close

 

[rmilia1]

I am predicting Yale over Baylor. It's the only 5-12 that I think has a shot. All the other 12s got horrible matchups.

I don't like any of the 13s or 14s. Although I think there is an outside shot Weber State could beat Xavier.

The best 12 percentage is Chattanooga. I give them a 37% chance to beat the Hoosiers but I don't use any seeds other than 13-16 for this thread

 

[The Derski]

Nah Hawaii is pretty good. While I think Cal wins, I also think it will be very close

People kept saying that about bellmont and Harvard against us. It seems like the popular upset pick is always against a pac12 team every year. It's the cool thing to do

 

[rmilia1]

People kept saying that about bellmont and Harvard against us. It seems like the popular upset pick is always against a pac12 team every year. It's the cool thing to do

First time for me my last 2 years have been ACC teams