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Originally Published: December 8, 2011
The top 10 QB draft grades
Mel reveals his top QB prospect grades since 1979; where will Andrew Luck By Mel Kiper Jr.
ESPN Insider
Archive
Where do Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning rank on Mel's all-time QB evaluation list?
I put out my first draft guide in 1979. This was back when there were 12 rounds of picks. It was endless. That year, the Buffalo Bills took Ohio State linebacker Tom Cousineau with the No. 1 overall pick. Cousineau wasn't too undersized for that time at 225 pounds, but he was a bust given his draft position. He finished his career with just 66 total starts. It was a good reality check; the game is filled with an extraordinary amount of uncertainty, and you can spend thousands of hours on tape, talking to coaches, players and scouts, but you'll still be wrong a lot. There's no way around it.
Most people don't remember Cousineau, but they always remember the quarterbacks. When you're deemed wrong on a quarterback, it sticks, but it's just part of the business. With the buzz surrounding Andrew Luck, I was asked to rank the top 10 quarterbacks I've ever graded -- with a few stipulations.
1. This is a ranking of guys based on their final draft grade the day before the draft, and it only goes back to 1979, since I've been grading.
2. It does not at all reflect NFL performance. (See: Ware, Andre)
3. I was told to say where Luck fits in. I will reveal that.
So here are the top 10 guys in order of draft grades since I've been in the game and where I believe Luck will enter the list.
1. John Elway (No. 1 pick, 1983)
The thing I'll always come back to with Elway is the unbelievable arm strength. It's still the best I've seen. But Elway had more touch than people realize -- he could make all the throws. His mobility was fantastic, and he was an extremely smart player. It wasn't just the Stanford cliché, either. Elway is the son of a coach and read the game at very high level before he got to the NFL.
2. Jim Kelly (No. 14, 1983)
Did you know Kelly was actually recruited to Penn State as a linebacker? He was. Joe Paterno wanted him as a linebacker at the school known as Linebacker U. But Kelly flourished under Howard Schnellenberger at Miami. Kelly was very accurate, a true sharpshooter, was really clean executing in what we considered at the time a pro-style system (remember, the option was still flourishing in college football). He had good size and what I considered an extremely high floor.
3. Drew Bledsoe (No. 1, 1993)
A natural, Bledsoe had neither perfect mechanics nor much athleticism, but he could make any throw, saw the whole field and was just really advanced for his age, which we saw in his NFL career when he threw for over 4,555 yards (before everybody was doing it) at the age of 22. He was a college starter at 18, and had an effortlessness to his approach.
Not every QB on this list has a picture with the Lombardi trophy.
4. Peyton Manning (No. 1, 1998)
As has been discussed endlessly, it was Manning or the next guy on this list for No. 1 in 1998, and the Colts got it right. In my grades, I had Manning just ahead, but it wasn't by far. People should remember that Manning had arm strength, but he gained arm strength in the NFL too. And Manning had experience, but he'd lost some big games at Tennessee with forgettable performances. He was a superb prospect, but wasn't without questions. Size, arm, accuracy and intangibles were there, however.
5. Ryan Leaf (No. 2, 1998)
A new history has been written for Leaf, but I don't mind at all saying that he was a fantastic prospect. He had incredible size, a big-time arm and could throw the touch pass or launch huge throws downfield. We see a caricature of Leaf as a malcontent, but at Washington State he was a winner, a leader and flat-out willed his team to the Rose Bowl. If his pro career had gone differently, we'd talk about how Leaf fit all the clichés you'd expect of a No. 1 pick. But I was wrong. The funny thing is, if you saw that total package again, you'd make the same mistake. It didn't work out for Leaf, but this is where he was graded. His status as a prospect just wasn't a question. He was a fantastic college player, and a very good prospect. It just didn't work out in the NFL.
6. Vinny Testaverde (No. 1, 1987)
If you want a vision of a guy with picture-perfect mechanics, the release that scouts rave over and the look of a prototype, Testaverde was pretty close to it going into the draft. His release was up high, so he played taller than 6-foot-3. He was smart and could roll out of bed and execute an offense, part of the reason he kept getting the call into his 40s. The guy was just a pure talent.
7. Andre Ware (No. 7, 1990)
Today we take for granted the idea that you have to be really careful when evaluating QBs out of completely wide-open, pass-happy schemes. But at the time, what Houston was doing wasn't that common, and Ware was fantastic. He didn't have great size, but Ware had piles of great tape, was accurate and had an underrated arm. I think he perhaps could have been a better pro, but he really got off to a bad start. He held out, and I've spoken to players in that organization who told me Ware got behind and they felt it really cost him early in his career. He didn't have a good NFL career, but he really was a major prospect.
Aikman is the most accurate NFL quarterback Mel's ever seen.
8. Troy Aikman (No. 1, 1989)
This is going to sound crazy to some people, because Aikman isn't a big stats guy with some gaudy completion percentage, but Aikman is the most accurate NFL quarterback I've ever seen. I mean that. The Cowboys' offense of the '90s wasn't like the current passing offenses we're seeing, dominated by high completion percentage options that make huge QB numbers more rule than exception. Put Aikman in one and he'd put up massive numbers too. And Aikman had that coming in. He had a great arm, could drill the ball into tight windows and had great timing, composure and a very quick, effortless release.
9. Boomer Esiason (No. 38, 1984)
People may be surprised to see Boomer here because he wasn't a very high pick. But he was one player who, for some reason that year, I just had him graded a lot higher than most evaluators. It can go both ways. A talented pitcher too, Esiason didn't have a monster arm, but he had a great feel and would utilize numerous teammates.
10. Steve Young (Round 1 of supplemental draft, 1984)
Young was the rare guy who doesn't have the big arm or elite size but has good ball skills and serious athleticism. Young had legit 4.5 speed, and put great touch on the ball. BYU had a lot of great QB play back then, and Young is the finest example.
Where Luck stands
If I did this list and included Luck based on where I think his pre-draft grade will be, he'd be at No. 2 overall. I still have his prospect grade below Elway at this point, but he edges out Kelly and has the second-highest grade for a QB in the 32 years I've been doing this. That's the kind of elite company he is in.
Mel Kiper has been the premier name in NFL draft prospect evaluations for more than three decades. He started putting out his annual draft guides in 1978 and started contributing to ESPN as an analyst in 1984. For more from Mel, check out his annual draft publications or his home page. He can also be found on Twitter.
The top 10 QB draft grades
Mel reveals his top QB prospect grades since 1979; where will Andrew Luck By Mel Kiper Jr.
ESPN Insider
Archive
Where do Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning rank on Mel's all-time QB evaluation list?
I put out my first draft guide in 1979. This was back when there were 12 rounds of picks. It was endless. That year, the Buffalo Bills took Ohio State linebacker Tom Cousineau with the No. 1 overall pick. Cousineau wasn't too undersized for that time at 225 pounds, but he was a bust given his draft position. He finished his career with just 66 total starts. It was a good reality check; the game is filled with an extraordinary amount of uncertainty, and you can spend thousands of hours on tape, talking to coaches, players and scouts, but you'll still be wrong a lot. There's no way around it.
Most people don't remember Cousineau, but they always remember the quarterbacks. When you're deemed wrong on a quarterback, it sticks, but it's just part of the business. With the buzz surrounding Andrew Luck, I was asked to rank the top 10 quarterbacks I've ever graded -- with a few stipulations.
1. This is a ranking of guys based on their final draft grade the day before the draft, and it only goes back to 1979, since I've been grading.
2. It does not at all reflect NFL performance. (See: Ware, Andre)
3. I was told to say where Luck fits in. I will reveal that.
So here are the top 10 guys in order of draft grades since I've been in the game and where I believe Luck will enter the list.
1. John Elway (No. 1 pick, 1983)
The thing I'll always come back to with Elway is the unbelievable arm strength. It's still the best I've seen. But Elway had more touch than people realize -- he could make all the throws. His mobility was fantastic, and he was an extremely smart player. It wasn't just the Stanford cliché, either. Elway is the son of a coach and read the game at very high level before he got to the NFL.
2. Jim Kelly (No. 14, 1983)
Did you know Kelly was actually recruited to Penn State as a linebacker? He was. Joe Paterno wanted him as a linebacker at the school known as Linebacker U. But Kelly flourished under Howard Schnellenberger at Miami. Kelly was very accurate, a true sharpshooter, was really clean executing in what we considered at the time a pro-style system (remember, the option was still flourishing in college football). He had good size and what I considered an extremely high floor.
3. Drew Bledsoe (No. 1, 1993)
A natural, Bledsoe had neither perfect mechanics nor much athleticism, but he could make any throw, saw the whole field and was just really advanced for his age, which we saw in his NFL career when he threw for over 4,555 yards (before everybody was doing it) at the age of 22. He was a college starter at 18, and had an effortlessness to his approach.
Not every QB on this list has a picture with the Lombardi trophy.
4. Peyton Manning (No. 1, 1998)
As has been discussed endlessly, it was Manning or the next guy on this list for No. 1 in 1998, and the Colts got it right. In my grades, I had Manning just ahead, but it wasn't by far. People should remember that Manning had arm strength, but he gained arm strength in the NFL too. And Manning had experience, but he'd lost some big games at Tennessee with forgettable performances. He was a superb prospect, but wasn't without questions. Size, arm, accuracy and intangibles were there, however.
5. Ryan Leaf (No. 2, 1998)
A new history has been written for Leaf, but I don't mind at all saying that he was a fantastic prospect. He had incredible size, a big-time arm and could throw the touch pass or launch huge throws downfield. We see a caricature of Leaf as a malcontent, but at Washington State he was a winner, a leader and flat-out willed his team to the Rose Bowl. If his pro career had gone differently, we'd talk about how Leaf fit all the clichés you'd expect of a No. 1 pick. But I was wrong. The funny thing is, if you saw that total package again, you'd make the same mistake. It didn't work out for Leaf, but this is where he was graded. His status as a prospect just wasn't a question. He was a fantastic college player, and a very good prospect. It just didn't work out in the NFL.
6. Vinny Testaverde (No. 1, 1987)
If you want a vision of a guy with picture-perfect mechanics, the release that scouts rave over and the look of a prototype, Testaverde was pretty close to it going into the draft. His release was up high, so he played taller than 6-foot-3. He was smart and could roll out of bed and execute an offense, part of the reason he kept getting the call into his 40s. The guy was just a pure talent.
7. Andre Ware (No. 7, 1990)
Today we take for granted the idea that you have to be really careful when evaluating QBs out of completely wide-open, pass-happy schemes. But at the time, what Houston was doing wasn't that common, and Ware was fantastic. He didn't have great size, but Ware had piles of great tape, was accurate and had an underrated arm. I think he perhaps could have been a better pro, but he really got off to a bad start. He held out, and I've spoken to players in that organization who told me Ware got behind and they felt it really cost him early in his career. He didn't have a good NFL career, but he really was a major prospect.
Aikman is the most accurate NFL quarterback Mel's ever seen.
8. Troy Aikman (No. 1, 1989)
This is going to sound crazy to some people, because Aikman isn't a big stats guy with some gaudy completion percentage, but Aikman is the most accurate NFL quarterback I've ever seen. I mean that. The Cowboys' offense of the '90s wasn't like the current passing offenses we're seeing, dominated by high completion percentage options that make huge QB numbers more rule than exception. Put Aikman in one and he'd put up massive numbers too. And Aikman had that coming in. He had a great arm, could drill the ball into tight windows and had great timing, composure and a very quick, effortless release.
9. Boomer Esiason (No. 38, 1984)
People may be surprised to see Boomer here because he wasn't a very high pick. But he was one player who, for some reason that year, I just had him graded a lot higher than most evaluators. It can go both ways. A talented pitcher too, Esiason didn't have a monster arm, but he had a great feel and would utilize numerous teammates.
10. Steve Young (Round 1 of supplemental draft, 1984)
Young was the rare guy who doesn't have the big arm or elite size but has good ball skills and serious athleticism. Young had legit 4.5 speed, and put great touch on the ball. BYU had a lot of great QB play back then, and Young is the finest example.
Where Luck stands
If I did this list and included Luck based on where I think his pre-draft grade will be, he'd be at No. 2 overall. I still have his prospect grade below Elway at this point, but he edges out Kelly and has the second-highest grade for a QB in the 32 years I've been doing this. That's the kind of elite company he is in.
Mel Kiper has been the premier name in NFL draft prospect evaluations for more than three decades. He started putting out his annual draft guides in 1978 and started contributing to ESPN as an analyst in 1984. For more from Mel, check out his annual draft publications or his home page. He can also be found on Twitter.
