Analysis: Rebuild Going in Right Direction

[Lake Shore Drive]

White Sox: Rebuild Going in Right Direction This Season

This article seems to be an overly optimistic view on how the rebuild has been progressing. Personally, I think we've fallen behind the timetable. A couple of years back when the rebuild went into full swing, I expected the Sox to be banging on the playoff door by THIS season. While anything's still possible, to me it looks like 2020 at the earliest now.

To be fair, I think the fallback is largely due to the amazingly high rate of season ending injuries our key prospect personnel have endured. To whit:

*Michael Kopech - TJ surgery, out till 2020 at the earliest
*Dane Dunning - TJ surgery, out till mid-late 2020 at the earliest
*Carlos Rodon - TJ surgery, out till 2021 at the earliest
*Jake Burger - Double achilles tendon surgeries, out till mid-late 2020 at the earliest
*Micker Adolfo - Various injuries and recent surgery on his elbow, out till 2020 at the earliest
*Alex Hansen - Various injuries, currently pitching, but delaying his debut until mid-late 2020 at the earliest
*Zack Burdi - Previous TJ surgery, currently pitching, but delaying his debut until 2020 at the earliest

That's seven players expected to be not only the Sox roster, but to be key contributors as well. An argument could be made that in Kopech, Rodon, and Dunning, we're looking at 3/5 of the starting rotation. Burdi has been tagged to be our future closer, Burger at 3b, Adolfo in RF, and Hansen perhaps long relief/spot starter. Those are all big roles, but for now just a bunch of hope-they-get-better candidates.

When you think about it, with all these key hopefuls out and the Sox still sporting a 21-23 record, it says something about our depth. With some luck, most of these injured players will at some point be wearing a White Sox uniform and if healthy, they will help make up a really strong roster. I'm not holding my breath for a couple of these guys, namely Burger and Rodon. With Moncada making what so far has been a successful transition to 3b, Burger may become the odd man out or perhaps trade bait. And I'm all but ready to completely give up on Rodon. What a shame, a #3 pick in the draft and to date has only proven to be a consistent injury machine.

 

[richig07]

I think if we hadn't suffered this barrage of injuries, especially to our young pitching - that we likely would have a winning record and gearing up for a run at the Central or AL Wild Card. The way our lineup has come along? How Giolito has seemingly made strides?

Having Kopech, Rodon and possibly Dunning up here right now (Cease soon as well?) along with the above? That would not be a bad team... in the least.

I mean, we've been a respectable baseball team - hovering right near .500 all year with rotating doors of Covey, Nova, Banuelos, Santana and (at times Lopez) all just stinking up the joint. If we hadn't caught so many bad breaks, it's hard to imagine that we're not making at least SOME noise this season.

 

[msgkings322]

2020 was always the target year to compete not 2019. But obviously the injuries have hurt. Next year they will spend some $ on a veteran stud starter and maybe an OF. Guaranteed playoffs in 2020, the window is 2020-2023

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

2020 was always the target year to compete not 2019. But obviously the injuries have hurt. Next year they will spend some $ on a veteran stud starter and maybe an OF. Guaranteed playoffs in 2020, the window is 2020-2023

I'll respectfully disagree here. Add those injured players into the mix as playing healthy and I say we'd have a legit shot at appearing in the postseason this year. Doesn't mean it would be guaranteed, plus I always hate using injuries as an excuse, mainly because all teams to some varying degrees get hit with the injury bug. I think what separates our situation tho is how it's our top prospects who are incurring these nasty injuries. I've been following the Sox for more years than I care to admit and I have to say this is the worst I've ever seen, at least with respect to our prospects and young players.

 

[msgkings322]

I'll respectfully disagree here. Add those injured players into the mix as playing healthy and I say we'd have a legit shot at appearing in the postseason this year. Doesn't mean it would be guaranteed, plus I always hate using injuries as an excuse, mainly because all teams to some varying degrees get hit with the injury bug. I think what separates our situation tho is how it's our top prospects who are incurring these nasty injuries. I've been following the Sox for more years than I care to admit and I have to say this is the worst I've ever seen, at least with respect to our prospects and young players.

Fair enough, I just figured it would take 3 years not 2, and the injuries guaranteed that

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Fair enough, I just figured it would take 3 years not 2, and the injuries guaranteed that

Yeah, again I want to stress that I'm not suggesting even if all these guys were on the roster, healthy, and contributing, we'd be a lock for the postseason. But I do believe we'd be in the mix. I originally had us pegged for 2020 as a for-sure playoff team and possibly even making some noise in the ALCS. I've backdated that now to 2021, but next year should be a better year for us no matter what, and with a little luck, who knows.

 

[Jiddy]

Yeah, again I want to stress that I'm not suggesting even if all these guys were on the roster, healthy, and contributing, we'd be a lock for the postseason. But I do believe we'd be in the mix. I originally had us pegged for 2020 as a for-sure playoff team and possibly even making some noise in the ALCS. I've backdated that now to 2021, but next year should be a better year for us no matter what, and with a little luck, who knows.

I mean...There's always that 1-5 or so teams that are like...f*cking hopeless (and even then hope springs eternal for these teams' fans come spring training)...but some version of this optimism OR BETTER exists on about 80+% of the league. So it's meaningless until it actually happens.

 

[Jiddy]

Sorry...I'll try not to be Debbie Downer. Our wins should be more than 70 this year...so, although I'm still sitting here like the groundsmen in Major League (They're still sh*tty)....It's at least not horribly bad as last year where we had our 6th worst winning percentage in a 119 season franchise history. So yeah, we're not bad on an epic scale. Just below average. Improvement is always nice, even when the bar is historically low.

 

[Trudem]

The AL Central is laughably bad this year. Minny already has a 10 game lead on second play and pounded on us this weekend. We still have many holes but we do entertain every now and then for the first time in a handful of years.

 

[idseer]

The AL Central is laughably bad this year. Minny already has a 10 game lead on second play and pounded on us this weekend. We still have many holes but we do entertain every now and then for the first time in a handful of years.

otoh, the sox have held their own against some pretty good teams:
beat ny 2-1 (in ny)
split with cleve 4-4
split with houston 2-2 (in houston)
and most of their games have been on the road. (28 vs 24)

i'd say it too few games and too early to do your kind of comparisons. it's no surprise the sox are very inconsistent and we know their starting pitch is atrocious, but the improvement of the positional team on the field is obvious.

 

[Trudem]

otoh, the sox have held their own against some pretty good teams:
beat ny 2-1 (in ny)
split with cleve 4-4
split with houston 2-2 (in houston)
and most of their games have been on the road. (28 vs 24)

i'd say it too few games and too early to do your kind of comparisons. it's no surprise the sox are very inconsistent and we know their starting pitch is atrocious, but the improvement of the positional team on the field is obvious.

I definitely agree with this. I have made many such comments thus far. We just arent very close to competing and wont be until we overhaul the pitching staff.

 

[Jiddy]

I definitely agree with this. I have made many such comments thus far. We just arent very close to competing and wont be until we overhaul the pitching staff.

This is how I feel about it.

Don't let the 26-29 record fool you too much. We've played more than half our schedule vs. the absolute worst of the worst teams in the league (Seattle/Toronto/KC/Detroit/Baltimore...30 games of our 55 so far). Those 5 teams combine for a -354 run differential (-70 per on average...yowza that's bad). Despite that cupcake path, our own run differential is -53. Our expected win/loss puts us at a 65 win clip. We're overperforming at the hands of some of the worst of the worst teams currently. That's not to say we're not improved. We definitely are (as I said in an earlier post, it would be impossible not to based on just how bad last year was). Anyone that thinks we're gonna be some kind of pop off all of a sudden playoff contender next year without drastic improvement is being overly optimistic. It's sad because all of it just means our "rebuild" is, for all intents and purposes, still at the starting line despite 6 (going on 7) years of sub .500 ball.

That said, can't wait to go see them kick the Yankees' ass in Comiskey in a few weeks. It's been far too long. Nothing beats going to a game.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

I'd love to argue with what you just said Jiddy, but you are 100% dead on. While we have had some decent periods playing top ranked clubs - see NY and Houston - for the most part our schedule has been pretty cupcake. We sure learned what it was like to face a very good team who is playing lights out when Minny took us to school in that last series. By any measurements that was a serious beatdown. And I recall that even tho we got a come-from-behind win in the opening game against the Red Sox, they wiped the floor with us the remaining 3 games in that series. So we indeed have a ways to go before we can say we're a playoff caliber team..

 

[msgkings322]

I'd love to argue with what you just said Jiddy, but you are 100% dead on. While we have had some decent periods playing top ranked clubs - see NY and Houston - for the most part our schedule has been pretty cupcake. We sure learned what it was like to face a very good team who is playing lights out when Minny took us to school in that last series. By any measurements that was a serious beatdown. And I recall that even tho we got a come-from-behind win in the opening game against the Red Sox, they wiped the floor with us the remaining 3 games in that series. So we indeed have a ways to go before we can say we're a playoff caliber team..

A ways to go as in a year. 2020, book it

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

A ways to go as in a year. 2020, book it

I hope you're right and I'm certainly not counting it out, altho I'm probably a bit more pessimistic. Still, if a lot of things fall into place, we definitely have a shot. It starts and ends with pitching. If we get some consistency out of whoever will make up our rotation and bullpen, then yes, we will be in the mix. Huge X factor tho.

 

[msgkings322]

I hope you're right and I'm certainly not counting it out, altho I'm probably a bit more pessimistic. Still, if a lot of things fall into place, we definitely have a shot. It starts and ends with pitching. If we get some consistency out of whoever will make up our rotation and bullpen, then yes, we will be in the mix. Huge X factor tho.

They will need to sign one veteran starter, a horse like the Astros did with Verlander, and of course shore up the pen. But that's the plan

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

They will need to sign one veteran starter, a horse like the Astros did with Verlander, and of course shore up the pen. But that's the plan

Works for me. Gerrit Cole would be a nice addition. Of course 29 other teams probably feel the same way.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Thanks to the Yankees-Red Sox rainout yesterday, we were fortunate enough to get the Sox-Tribe game on MLB last night. Saw some positive stuff in our 10-4 win. A good night with the bats against a pitcher who has owned us in the past. Abreu's 3 ribbies left him as the league leader in RBIs. The two young turks, Moncada & Jimenez, turned in positive, run-producing results, Timmay still leads the league in BA, altho technically now tied for first, and Leury Garcia continues to rake - now hitting above .300, as this guy just continues to find ways of getting on base.

I was also impressed with the BP performances of Evan Marshall & Aaron Bummer, who held down the fort until the Sox were able to open the floodgates. Marshall is having without question his finest year since his rookie campaign with the Diamondbacks and Bummer seems to be settling in nicely as a later innings reliever. I'd like to see these two more in tandem, especially in trying to hold a lead in the late innings (hint: as in replacing Herrera in that role).

 

[richig07]

This is how I feel about it.

Don't let the 26-29 record fool you too much. We've played more than half our schedule vs. the absolute worst of the worst teams in the league (Seattle/Toronto/KC/Detroit/Baltimore...30 games of our 55 so far). Those 5 teams combine for a -354 run differential (-70 per on average...yowza that's bad). Despite that cupcake path, our own run differential is -53. Our expected win/loss puts us at a 65 win clip. We're overperforming at the hands of some of the worst of the worst teams currently. That's not to say we're not improved. We definitely are (as I said in an earlier post, it would be impossible not to based on just how bad last year was). Anyone that thinks we're gonna be some kind of pop off all of a sudden playoff contender next year without drastic improvement is being overly optimistic. It's sad because all of it just means our "rebuild" is, for all intents and purposes, still at the starting line despite 6 (going on 7) years of sub .500 ball.

That said, can't wait to go see them kick the Yankees' ass in Comiskey in a few weeks. It's been far too long. Nothing beats going to a game.

I think the injuries to our staff has been quite the setback as well. If this staff had Rodon/Kopech... who knows?

The thing too is that this young team should only improve as the season goes along.

However, regardless of all of this... beating the bad teams and losing vs the best teams is 100% a sign of improvement for this team.

The last 5 days they've played real baseball, period. The June 13th-30th stretch is the hardest we will see all year and will be very telling of what the rest of this season holds.

 

[richig07]

Thanks to the Yankees-Red Sox rainout yesterday, we were fortunate enough to get the Sox-Tribe game on MLB last night. Saw some positive stuff in our 10-4 win. A good night with the bats against a pitcher who has owned us in the past. Abreu's 3 ribbies left him as the league leader in RBIs. The two young turks, Moncada & Jimenez, turned in positive, run-producing results, Timmay still leads the league in BA, altho technically now tied for first, and Leury Garcia continues to rake - now hitting above .300, as this guy just continues to find ways of getting on base.

I was also impressed with the BP performances of Evan Marshall & Aaron Bummer, who held down the fort until the Sox were able to open the floodgates. Marshall is having without question his finest year since his rookie campaign with the Diamondbacks and Bummer seems to be settling in nicely as a later innings reliever. I'd like to see these two more in tandem, especially in trying to hold a lead in the late innings (hint: as in replacing Herrera in that role).

I know Marshall is sort of a journeymen, but it's hard not to like what we've seen from him here.

Hard to believe how god f'ing awful Herrera is. Also, remember when Jace Fry was a thing? I do. Good times. lol