AFC South: Were the Colts overrated in 2025?

[Brees#1]

I made a post about the AFC South around mid season or so about the AFC South and if the Colts were legit.

Well, here's something.

The Colts got off to an 8-2 start
Here was their common record:
6-1 vs Denver, Tennessee, LAR, Las Vegas, Arizona, and LAC. The one loss was to the Rams.

The Houston Texans went 5-2 against that list with the difference being the Colts beating the Broncos and not the Texans.

Before Jones went down the Colts were 0-1 against KC, who Houston beat.

Jacksonville went 7-1 against everyone mentioned.

Jacksonville had the most impressive win against Denver. Houston lost.
Indianapolis had the most impressive sweep over Tennessee. Houston had the worst.
The Colts put up the better fight against the Rams. Jacksonville the worst.
The Colts had by far the most impressive win against the Raiders. Houston had the worst as they were at home.
Houston had the best performance against the Cardinals. The Colts were the worst here.
Jacksonville had the most impressive win vs the Chargers. The Texans were the worst.
The Texans may have had the best win against KC, but KC was reeling at the time. Colts lost.

The Colts edge here 3-2-2 but it's a three way tie taking away the division games. As for the being the worst, the Texans were the worst on a 4-2-1 margin here and without the Titans 3-2-1.

Against common playoff teams that Jones played against
The Colts were 2-1
The Texans were 1-2
The Jaguars were 2-1.

The question arises, if Daniel Jones was healthy do the Colts actually win the division? They would have had to win out. While I believe a healthy Jones flips the Seahawks and Texans' games, the 49ers were still likely to win. Jacksonville still wins the division.


The results are not as decisive as expected. A healthy Jones does not translate to a division title in 26 to capitalize off the previous year. The Colts didn't have a superior showing in the division. It was that they caught up to Houston.

Against the AFC North, Houston has the best matchups
Against the NFC East, Indianapolis does.
Jacksonville matches up the worst against the AFC North and NFC East. Houston could go 0-3 against the Packers, Chargers, and Bills.

I expect this division to be between Houston and Indianapolis. Jacksonville has to show their offense wasn't a fluke and with a regressed defense putting more pressure on it.

Odds are, experience wins, but this division is a toss-up.

 

[Hotel Security]

I'd say they were properly-rated. No one was talking them up by the end of the year.

And when isn't this division a toss-up?

 

[Clayton]

I've already broken it down a bit but Ill add that when we've seen Daniel Jones is a functional system with weapons he is a 68% accuracy QBs and when he is in a bad system its closer to 63%. He is right at that 'system QB' tier but if that system is functioning he is likely making the playoffs.

 

[Brees#1]

Jacksonville is 1-3, 4-0, 0-4, 1-3, 1-3, 4-0, 0-4, and 1-3 in that sequence against the AFC North.

It's simple. If Jacksonville beats Cleveland and Cincinnati early on, they're sweeping the entire division, completely changing the course of the division. But I question them beating the Ravens on short rest in Baltimore week 9 despite the history.

Jacksonville also has not made consecutive playoffs since 1999.

I stand corrected. But I am rooting for Lawrence.