Hate beating a dead horse too but even if JJ only blows 3 games its almost even. The keys are obviously him, Hammel getting it together and what Reimold/Roberts contribute. They have to go 8-4 against Boston and 4-2 against TB I think.
50 + the reason being i didnt want to say what everybody else is saying. If Chen is well with feldman and Buck uses his pitchers well there isnt any reason we cant get 50 wins