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4 year extension for one of our best recent draft picks!

blstoker

Bill Bergen for HoF!
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Don't know man, from Super Bowl 48 to now the SB winning team's punter has averaged (max/min) the following ranks:

- Punt Average - 21st (12th/29th)
- Punt Net Average - 17th (7th/23rd)
- Punts inside 20 - 22nd (11th/27th)

Doesn't sound like the best of the best think that they need an all-pro punter. The only SB loser that I saw that had a punter ranked generally in the top 5 or so of those categories in that timeframe was the Rams in 2019 (2018 Season).

Interesting, but let's look at this another way shall we?

Since 2014, these 7 Super Bowl winners have drafted a combined 116 player from the 5th round and later, with New England with the most (28) and KC and TB tied for the least (20). Of these 116 players, 2 have become all pros at their positions, Tyreek Hill (3 times) and Jake Bailey (a punter). That's less than a 2% chance that they draft an all pro after the 4th round.

Three players have made the pro bowl, Hill (5 times), Bailey and DJ Alexander. So, again, that's less than 3% of their choices made a pro bowl.

A total of 65 times in that span has seen a player drafted in the 5th or later be the starter for their team (9 starts or more in a season). That's out of a total of 474 total possible seasons. So, there's a 13.7% chance that one of these late round picks will be a starter in a season.

On average, one of these late round players could expect to have an average of 1.26 AV in any given year.

4 of the 7 winning Super Bowl teams have drafted a punter between 2014-2020 (NE and Denver).

Overall, what this means is, I think some people have a overinflated idea of how much impact a later round choice should have on their team.
 

Uhsplit

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I'm not disappointed that we drafted Dickson, or really that we traded up for him, but my point is even with him ending up as an all-pro, it isn't really some sort of homerun pick, and if he had turned out league-average or worse it would have been a waste of assets/bust. You said "punting is HUGE"... I disagree. I think having a great punter is nice, but not necessary. Having league-average (probably even worse) is fine and not worth giving up a bunch of value elsewhere to correct. Having a terrible punter would definitely hurt, but I don't think there are many of those that stay in the NFL more than a few games.
Punters are not the missing link to winning a Super Bowl. You haven’t seen enough of his kicks die inside the 5 YL. He is merely one of our weapons.
 

Uhsplit

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I'm not disappointed that we drafted Dickson, or really that we traded up for him, but my point is even with him ending up as an all-pro, it isn't really some sort of homerun pick, and if he had turned out league-average or worse it would have been a waste of assets/bust. You said "punting is HUGE"... I disagree. I think having a great punter is nice, but not necessary. Having league-average (probably even worse) is fine and not worth giving up a bunch of value elsewhere to correct. Having a terrible punter would definitely hurt, but I don't think there are many of those that stay in the NFL more than a few games.
Punters are not the missing link to winning a Super Bowl. You haven’t seen enough of his kicks die inside the 5 YL.
 
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