2026 San Francisco Giants

[calsnowskier]

Time to place BIG money on the AL in the ASG

Well, gents. I will be retiring now.

Maybe time to add a runway to go along with my helipad?

 

[LHG]

Well, gents. I will be retiring now.

Maybe time to add a runway to go along with my helipad?

Maybe you could fly all of us to Mallorca?

 

[Stokes1931]

Maybe you could fly all of us to Mallorca?

EZ all good!

 

[LHG]

Juan Sanchez was one of the pitchers I listed as being a possible demotion/release from Sacramento and the Giants indeed have let him go.

Once a decent relief prospect in the farm, Sanchez did okay in limited action with the RiverCats in 2024 before missing all of 2025 due to injury. He has been healthy enough to pitch this year but got absolutely torched with Sacramento this year. Just 25 years old, it will be interesting to see if someone picks him up.

 

[tzill]

2027 schedule just dropped, not that there will actually be a season:

 

[LHG]

2027 schedule just dropped, not that there will actually be a season:
View attachment 434110

Now MLB is playing fantasy baseball?

 

[calsnowskier]

For as much as we tend to bitch about Adames, coming into today, he already had 1.4 WAR on the season.

Yes, he is overpaid, but he is NOT a worthless asset. We should be able to get SOMETHING for him in a trade if we can get a buyer (no idea who is looking for a 2B/SS in the buying market).

Divars has 1.8 WAR. He has real value as well.

I doubt these guys are viewed as negative assets league-wide.

 

[LHG]

For as much as we tend to bitch about Adames, coming into today, he already had 1.4 WAR on the season.

Yes, he is overpaid, but he is NOT a worthless asset. We should be able to get SOMETHING for him in a trade if we can get a buyer (no idea who is looking for a 2B/SS in the buying market).

Divars has 1.8 WAR. He has real value as well.

I doubt these guys are viewed as negative assets league-wide.

All the writers I've seen talk about sunk cost or underwater contracts for these guys. I have no idea the value of WAR on the free agent market right now so I just assumed that they are correct in their assessments. Hopefully, the FO doesn't buy it and at least tries to see what can be gotten in return.

Of course, if MLB writers are saying this, other GMs are going to leverage that as much as possible. So their articles could become self fulfilling prophecies, as it were. Guess we'll find out.

 

[calsnowskier]

All the writers I've seen talk about sunk cost or underwater contracts for these guys. I have no idea the value of WAR on the free agent market right now so I just assumed that they are correct in their assessments. Hopefully, the FO doesn't buy it and at least tries to see what can be gotten in return.

Of course, if MLB writers are saying this, other GMs are going to leverage that as much as possible. So their articles could become self fulfilling prophecies, as it were. Guess we'll find out.

In the past, once a player passed 2 WAR for a season, each WAR was worth approx 8M. I have not seen an updated number for that general rule, but if you assume Adames is a 2 WAR player, than he is making approx 2x his worth. But that 8M number is AT LEAST 10 years old. I am sure a 2 WAR player is worth considerably more than 16M today.

 

[tzill]

For as much as we tend to bitch about Adames, coming into today, he already had 1.4 WAR on the season.

Yes, he is overpaid, but he is NOT a worthless asset. We should be able to get SOMETHING for him in a trade if we can get a buyer (no idea who is looking for a 2B/SS in the buying market).

Divars has 1.8 WAR. He has real value as well.

I doubt these guys are viewed as negative assets league-wide.

Agreed. They are tradable, depending upon how much salary we can eat.

 

[tzill]

All the writers I've seen talk about sunk cost or underwater contracts for these guys. I have no idea the value of WAR on the free agent market right now so I just assumed that they are correct in their assessments. Hopefully, the FO doesn't buy it and at least tries to see what can be gotten in return.

Of course, if MLB writers are saying this, other GMs are going to leverage that as much as possible. So their articles could become self fulfilling prophecies, as it were. Guess we'll find out.

My opinion only, but I doubt GMs much care about what is written. They are going to make the best deals they can. I doubt Adames and Devars are viewed as negative assets. It's just how much salary the Giants are willing to eat to get assets back.

 

[tzill]

In the past, once a player passed 2 WAR for a season, each WAR was worth approx 8M. I have not seen an updated number for that general rule, but if you assume Adames is a 2 WAR player, than he is making approx 2x his worth. But that 8M number is AT LEAST 10 years old. I am sure a 2 WAR player is worth considerably more than 16M today.

Great thought exercise. Here's what I found about how WAR is valued today:

Bench Players (0–1 projected WAR): ~$6.7 million per WAR
Role Players / Average Starters (1–2 projected WAR): ~$8.5 million per WAR
Everyday Premium Starters (2+ projected WAR): ~$12.8 million per WAR

For an established, 2+ WAR everyday starter hitting the open market, teams are realistically paying upwards of $11.5M to $13M per projected WAR. A true 2.0 WAR performance is worth closer to $25 million in actual free-agent dollars, not $16 million.

Willy Adames signed a 7-year, $182 million contract (a $26 million AAV).
Using the outdated $8M rule: He would need to average 3.25 WAR per year to justify his salary. If he drops to a 2.0 WAR player, he is heavily overpaid.
Using modern 2+ WAR FA market value (~$12.8M): He needs to average roughly 2.0 to 2.1 WAR per year to provide surplus or equal value on his contract.

 

[calsnowskier]

Great thought exercise. Here's what I found about how WAR is valued today:

Bench Players (0–1 projected WAR): ~$6.7 million per WAR
Role Players / Average Starters (1–2 projected WAR): ~$8.5 million per WAR
Everyday Premium Starters (2+ projected WAR): ~$12.8 million per WAR

For an established, 2+ WAR everyday starter hitting the open market, teams are realistically paying upwards of $11.5M to $13M per projected WAR. A true 2.0 WAR performance is worth closer to $25 million in actual free-agent dollars, not $16 million.

Willy Adames signed a 7-year, $182 million contract (a $26 million AAV).
Using the outdated $8M rule: He would need to average 3.25 WAR per year to justify his salary. If he drops to a 2.0 WAR player, he is heavily overpaid.
Using modern 2+ WAR FA market value (~$12.8M): He needs to average roughly 2.0 to 2.1 WAR per year to provide surplus or equal value on his contract.

Without research, I assumed the current value would be approx 12M per WAR/yr, so your 12.8M number feels right.

Going off that new estimator, Adamas and Divars (and Chappy) are far more tradable than we have given them credit for.

 

[tzill]

This bullpen is the absolute worst.

 

[LHG]

As of 7/19:
8-0 when they don't allow the other team to score
8-0 - 1 run allowed (16-0)
9-4 - 2 runs allowed (25-4)
6-8 - 3 runs allowed (31-12)
3-5 - 4 runs allowed (34-17)
3-8 - 5 runs allowed (37-23)
3-10 - 6 runs allowed (40-35)
0-5 - 7 runs allowed (40-40)
0-5 - 8 runs allowed (40-45)
1-5 - 9 runs allowed (41-50)
1-7 - 10 or more runs allowed (42-57)

18-0 when they score 7 runs or more
8-3 when they score 6 runs (26-3)
4-3 when they score 5 runs (30-6)
1-4 when they score 4 runs (31-10)
8-16 when they score 3 runs (39-26)
2-12 when they score 2 runs (41-38)
1-10 when they score 1 run (42-48)
0-9 when they get shut out (42-57)

Projected final record for 2026: 69-93

 

[LHG]

This bullpen is the absolute worst.

Since you (didn't) ask:

April 5th - Giants take a 2-1 lead in the 6th inning, only to have both Winn and Miller melt down in the 8th inning, allowing 4 runs to score. Giants lose 2-5.
April 6th - This one may not fully be on the bullpen but they helped. Giants go up 4-0 on the Phillies by the end of the 4th inning. Houser allows 2 runs in the 5th and gets in trouble in the 6th inning, putting runners on, before Borucki comes in and completely melts down. Giants lose 4-6.
April 30th (DH game 1) - Giants going into the 9th inning up 2-1 in Philly. Walker comes and promptly loses the game by allowing 2 runs in the 9th.
April 30th (DH game 2) - Giants take the lead in Philly in the top of the 9th inning, only to have Winn give up the tying run and Gage give up the winning run in the 10th.
May 3rd - Giants take a 1-0 lead into the bottom of the 8th in Tampa, only to have Walker give up the tying run that inning and Kilian give up the winning run in the 10th.
May 6th - Tie game 1-1 in SF against the Padres. Houser starts the 6th and first batter gets on base due to an error. Winn comes in and walks the first batter but gets two quick outs. He is pulled for Gage, who proceeds to give up a triple, giving the Padres a lead. Walker would come in the next inning and give up 2 more runs.
May 9th - Giants tied with the Pirates 0-0 going into the top of the 5th. Roupp gives up a single to the first batter and is pulled for Borucki. He then proceeds to allow 2 runners to score. Walker, Brubaker, Santos and Koss later give up a combined 11 runs (with some defensive gaffes) to lose the game 3-13.
May 14th - Against the Dodgers, in LA, tied up 2-2 going into the bottom of the 5th inning. Roupp gives up a walk, out and single before being replaced by Gage. He then gets a strikeout before giving up two singles and a walk, allowing the Dodgers to win the game (Giants lose 2-5).
May 19th - Giants leading 3-1 going into the bottom of the 9th in Arizona. Kilian and Gage combine to give up 4 runs in that inning to lose the game.
May 27th - This is technically on the bullpen but they really did their best to not blow it. Giants tied with D-Backs in SF going into the 7th inning. McDonald gets the first out, gives up two singles and then gets pulled for Gage. Gives up ground ball that should have been an out but Devers makes the error and bases are loaded. Next batter hits a sacrifice fly that, if Devers played the ball correctly the batter before, would have been the third out. Instead, D-Backs score what would be the winning run. Gage strikes out the next batter.
May 29th - Giants go into the bottom of the 9th in Colorado with a 6-3 lead. So TV sits on Kilian throughout the 9th, allowing 5 runs and gives up the loss.
June 6th - Giants take a 2-1 lead in the game against the Cubs on the road in the top of the 9th, only to have Winn allow the tying run in the bottom half of the inning and Hentges give up the winning run in the 10th.
June 8th - Giants go into the top of the 9th leading the Nationals 3-1. Winn relieves Webb to start the 9th and gives up 3 runs. The Giants don't score in the bottom half of the 9th and lose the game.
June 19th - Giants leading 3-2 in Miami. Bottom of the 7th, Hentges comes in and allows 2 runs to lose the game.
June 25th - Giants up 6-2 at home against the A's, TV hands the ball over to the bullpen. Walker and Miller give up 2 runs that inning. Smith gives up another run in the 8th but Giants finish 8 full still up 6-5. Then TV decides for the 2nd time this season to let Kilian stay in the 9th way too long, giving up 4 runs and the game in the process!
June 29th - Mahle loads the bases, while getting just one out, in the bottom of the 5th inning after Giants has just tied 1-1 in the top half. Hentges is brought in for relief and proceeds to give up a bases clearing double before getting the other 2 outs. Brubaker gives up what comes the decisive run in the next inning and the Giants lose in Arizona 4-5.
July 5th - Smith gives up 3 runs, and the lead, to the Rockies in Colorado in the bottom of the 8th. Giants fell to score in the 9th and lose 6-7.
July 10th - Giants up 2-1 going into the top of the 9th at home against the Rockies (THE ROCKIES!). Kilian brought in to close out the game. Instead, he gives up 3 hits and a walk without getting an out. Miller relieves him and proceeds to allow another runner to score before getting 3 outs. Giants lose 3-4.
July 18th - This one pains me to pin on the pen but some pitcher has to get the loss. Giants were winning 3-0 doing into the bottom of the 7th when Webb gave up 3 runs to allow the game to be tied. Three bullpen pitchers went a solid 2.1 IP before Smith took over in extra innings. With the Manfred man on 2nd, he gave up a sacrifice bunt to move the runner to 3rd, walks a batter and then gives up a lineout deep enough to all the runner at 3rd to tag up and score the winning run.
July 19th - Similar to the day before, the starting pitcher gets a lead but allows the tying runs, this time in both the 4th and 5th innings. Houser is brought in to pitch the 6th inning, giving up a solo home run with 1 out. He allows 2 more runs in the 7th and the Giants lose 3-6.

The Giants have lost 57 games so far this season. The bullpen has been directly responsible for 20 of those losses (maybe 18 if you don't count the May 27th and July 18th games and just put that on the defense or lack of offense). Compare that to the 37 games already lost before the bullpen threw a pitch. The blame on the pitching side skewers toward the starting rotation but the bullpen has definitely contributed its fair share.

 

[LHG]

The Giants have 4 hitters on the 10 day IL, 1 pitcher on the 15 day IL and 5 pitchers on the 60 day IL. 4 of those 5 pitchers on the 60 are done for 2026. Here is what I'm seeing on the rest of the group:
Peguero - Had a set up in rehab. Only throwing on flat ground. No timetable on return.
Gage - Will be reevaluated in 4 weeks. Looks like he is at least 6 weeks from returning.
Bericoto - Just hit IL. No timetable yet.
Cox - Just hit IL. No timetable yet.
Bader - He is running?
Chapman - Could return as early as July 24th

 

[LHG]

Here is a shocker:

Report: Giants Have Not Discussed Extension With Luis Arraez

Arraez is open to an extension but the signs continue pointing to a trade.

www.mlbtraderumors.com

 

[calsnowskier]

Here is a shocker:

Report: Giants Have Not Discussed Extension With Luis Arraez

Arraez is open to an extension but the signs continue pointing to a trade.

www.mlbtraderumors.com

Not that I necessarily trust the report, but that is essentially what I would expect.

I like Arraez. A lot. But he just doesn’t fit our needs moving forward. Trade him for as much of a haul as is humanly possible and thank him for his time.

Good Giant. Former Giant.

 

[tzill]

Worst bullpen ever.