2026 San Francisco Giants

[calsnowskier]

That means only 9 teams fall within the “acceptable” range currently…

 

[calsnowskier]

So what should the penalties be?

For falling under the floor, I think this should be primarily financial. If a team falls under the floor, the base penalty should be 100% of the delta gets paid to a player pension fund. Tier 2 should just be an increased penalty. Something like 1.5x the delta. T3 should 2.0x delta. Etc, etc, etc.

Going over should hold the same financial penalty, but ALSO include draft penalties. Instead of calling these overage levels “tiers”, let’s call them “aprons” instead since the term already exist in the NBA, and I think going over should have different penalties based on how over the team is.

Apron 1 = up to 10% over the cap. This will incur a 50% “tax” of the overage amount paid to the players pension fund. It will also include some kind of draft hit. Whether it is a loss of a mid-pick (3rd rounder?) or dropping their #1 pick x slots, can be determined later.

Apron 2 = 10% - 20% over the cap. 75% “tax” of the overage and an increased draft penalty (higher pick forfeiture or more slots dropped?)

Apron 3 = 20% - 30% over the cap. 100% “tax” of the overage and further increased draft penalty.

Etc, etc, etc…

If a team is in penalty for the first year, their overage is simply calculated as above.

2 years in succession, they are increased 1 apron level. 3 years in a row, their apron level is increased by 2. Etc, etc, etc.

 

[LHG]

As of 8/13:
9-0 when they don't allow the other team to score
11-0 - 1 run allowed (20-0)
11-5 - 2 runs allowed (31-5)
7-10 - 3 runs allowed (38-15)
3-7 - 4 runs allowed (41-22)
3-11 - 5 runs allowed (44-31)
4-13 - 6 runs allowed (48-46)
0-6 - 7 runs allowed (49-52)
0-7 - 8 runs allowed (49-59)
1-5 - 9 runs allowed (49-64)
1-7 - 10 or more runs allowed (50-71)

21-0 when they score 7 runs or more
8-3 when they score 6 runs (29-3)
6-4 when they score 5 runs (35-7)
3-6 when they score 4 runs (38-13)
9-19 when they score 3 runs (47-32)
2-13 when they score 2 runs (49-45)
1-13 when they score 1 run (50-58)
0-13 when they get shut out (50-71)

Projected final record for 2026: 67-95

 

[LHG]

As of 8/16:
9-0 when they don't allow the other team to score
12-0 - 1 run allowed (21-0)
11-5 - 2 runs allowed (32-5)
7-10 - 3 runs allowed (39-15)
3-7 - 4 runs allowed (42-22)
3-12 - 5 runs allowed (45-32)
4-13 - 6 runs allowed (49-47)
0-6 - 7 runs allowed (49-53)
0-7 - 8 runs allowed (49-60)
1-5 - 9 runs allowed (50-65)
1-8 - 10 or more runs allowed (51-73)

22-1 when they score 7 runs or more
8-3 when they score 6 runs (30-4)
6-4 when they score 5 runs (36-8)
3-6 when they score 4 runs (39-14)
9-19 when they score 3 runs (48-33)
2-14 when they score 2 runs (50-47)
1-13 when they score 1 run (51-60)
0-13 when they get shut out (51-73)

Projected final record for 2026: 67-95

 

[tzill]

Thought Tony Vitello did a nice job of creating a soft landing for Matt Wilkinson today. He got a chance to face 4 left-handed hitters through 2 innings. Also, it created a better landing for Adrian Houser, who was effective through 5 innings.

 

[calsnowskier]

Thought Tony Vitello did a nice job of creating a soft landing for Matt Wilkinson today. He got a chance to face 4 left-handed hitters through 2 innings. Also, it created a better landing for Adrian Houser, who was effective through 5 innings.

I would say Wilkerson looked good, but…

Let’s be honest…

He pitched well, though.

 

[tzill]

I would say Wilkerson looked good, but…

Let’s be honest…

He pitched well, though.

THE FAT SHAMING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL PHYSIQUE IMPROVES.

 

[LHG]

As of 8/20:
10-0 when they don't allow the other team to score
12-0 - 1 run allowed (22-0)
11-5 - 2 runs allowed (33-5)
7-10 - 3 runs allowed (40-15)
3-7 - 4 runs allowed (43-22)
3-13 - 5 runs allowed (46-33)
4-13 - 6 runs allowed (50-48)
0-6 - 7 runs allowed (50-54)
0-8 - 8 runs allowed (50-62)
1-5 - 9 runs allowed (51-67)
1-8 - 10 or more runs allowed (52-75)

22-1 when they score 7 runs or more
8-3 when they score 6 runs (30-4)
6-4 when they score 5 runs (36-8)
3-6 when they score 4 runs (39-14)
9-19 when they score 3 runs (48-33)
2-15 when they score 2 runs (50-48)
2-14 when they score 1 run (52-62)
0-13 when they get shut out (52-75)

Projected final record for 2026: 66-96

 

[LHG]

It is pretty sad when the team is limited to 2 or fewer runs in 46 games. Its even more sad when said team wins only 4 of those 46 games.

That makes the fact that they won yesterday even more amazing. That was only their 2nd win all year when the scored a mere 1 run.

 

[tzill]

Credit where it’s due: Drew Gilbert has been one of the few bright spots this season, proving he can be a valuable big leaguer at only 25 years old.Currently slashing .272/.360/.431, 121 wRC+ and 10.1%/15.7% BB/K vs RHP. Also plays all 3 OF spots at an average or better clip.

 

[calsnowskier]

Credit where it’s due: Drew Gilbert has been one of the few bright spots this season, proving he can be a valuable big leaguer at only 25 years old.Currently slashing .272/.360/.431, 121 wRC+ and 10.1%/15.7% BB/K vs RHP. Also plays all 3 OF spots at an average or better clip.

And he has noticeably toned down his immature antics. Now if someone can just get into Adames’ head…

 

[tzill]

And he has noticeably toned down his immature antics. Now if someone can just get into Adames’ head…

Dude seems to be reborn since getting some time off. I'm willing to believe most of his struggles this year are due his back not being right.

Also, Tidwell might just be a real piece in 2028.

 

[calsnowskier]

Dude seems to be reborn since getting some time off. I'm willing to believe most of his struggles this year are due his back not being right.

Also, Tidwell might just be a real piece in 2028.

Playing 162 just doesn’t make sense anymore (95% of the time, at least). Sitting 3 games a month does not effect your “tough guy” image and helps the team immensely (both in keeping you healthy and keeping other players sharp).

 

[LHG]

Credit where it’s due: Drew Gilbert has been one of the few bright spots this season, proving he can be a valuable big leaguer at only 25 years old.Currently slashing .272/.360/.431, 121 wRC+ and 10.1%/15.7% BB/K vs RHP. Also plays all 3 OF spots at an average or better clip.

Guess he makes for a strong side platoon.

 

[LHG]

As of 8/23:
10-0 when they don't allow the other team to score
12-0 - 1 run allowed (22-0)
11-5 - 2 runs allowed (33-5)
7-11 - 3 runs allowed (40-16)
3-7 - 4 runs allowed (43-23)
3-14 - 5 runs allowed (46-35)
4-14 - 6 runs allowed (50-51)
0-6 - 7 runs allowed (50-57)
0-8 - 8 runs allowed (50-65)
1-5 - 9 runs allowed (51-70)
1-8 - 10 or more runs allowed (52-78)

22-1 when they score 7 runs or more
8-3 when they score 6 runs (30-4)
6-4 when they score 5 runs (36-8)
3-8 when they score 4 runs (39-16)
9-19 when they score 3 runs (48-35)
2-16 when they score 2 runs (50-51)
2-14 when they score 1 run (52-65)
0-13 when they get shut out (52-78)

Projected final record for 2026: 65-97

 

[LHG]

Some injury updates. I'm bummed about Peguero. I was hoping he could get some late season innings in, just in case there is a 2027 season. From MLBTR:

• The Giants‘ 5-4 loss to the Red Sox saw both Willy Adames and Victor Bericoto leave the game due to injuries. Adames hurt his left elbow on an awkward slide into home in the first inning and was replaced in the field before the bottom of the fifth. For the final out of that frame, Bericoto hurt his right knee chasing after a ball in foul territory that was ruled an out due to fan interference, and Drew Gilbert pinch-hit for Bericoto in the first at-bat of the sixth inning. Both players will undergo MRIs on Monday to determine the severity of the injuries. Since San Francisco is well out of the race, it is possible Adames or Bericoto might be shut down for the season if their injuries lead to IL stints and recovery timelines much longer than a couple of weeks.
• Speaking of Giants players being shut down, the team announced that Joel Peguero‘s season is officially over. Peguero began the season on the 15-day IL due to a left hamstring strain, then posted a 2.38 ERA over 11 1/3 relief innings before another left hamstring strain sent him to the 60-day IL on June 1. He made two Triple-A rehab appearances this month but didn’t record a single out over five batters faced. The right-hander has a strong 2.41 ERA over 33 2/3 career innings in the majors, but with a 4.99 SIERA that better reflects his shaky peripherals.

Also, Mayer being shut down due to a right foot bone bruise from a prior injury and will get reevaluated sometime during the week.

 

[tzill]

Ryan Walker is eligible for arbitration in the offseason (if there is one), meaning that he would be due for a nice raise in 2027. Probably his last chance to show he can stick.

 

[calsnowskier]

Ryan Walker is eligible for arbitration in the offseason (if there is one), meaning that he would be due for a nice raise in 2027. Probably his last chance to show he can stick.

I posted in a breakdown a few weeks back that I expect him to be shown the door. If he can look OK the rest of the way this year, MAYBE we can trade him before the lockout?

 

[LHG]

Ryan Walker is eligible for arbitration in the offseason (if there is one), meaning that he would be due for a nice raise in 2027. Probably his last chance to show he can stick.

If he does make it to arbitration, I doubt he gets much of a raise. Some players do lose their hearings. But it does seem more likely he gets dfa’d or nontendered, unless he does great down the stretch.

 

[tzill]

2026 SF Giants motto:

Never met a mound we couldn't shat.