2026 San Francisco Giants

[calsnowskier]

I wouldn’t offer to pay the rest of his contract either.

So we won the trade.

 

[calsnowskier]

With the deadline behind us, time to pick up the pieces and take inventory.

The big question RIGHT NOW is finalizing the 40 and 26. We know Tidwell will be joining the rotation tomorrow. I doubt they will bother fine tuning to squeeze an extra day’s use out of someone. I suspect he will be added to the 26 for tonight.

We still have 3 more openings, and we NEED bully arms and an OFer. Is Cox ready to be activated? I would hate to have to add anyone to the 40 that we actually care about. Is Brennan still in the org? If he is, he could be added to the 40. Maybe Tanner Hill? We have lots of bully arms on the 40 who can be added with no problem.

The next issue that needs attention is to assess Mayer’s health. I get the sense that he isn’t seriously injured? If that is the case, then I want to see him at SS. If he can play there, then move Adames to 2B and go with that configuration the rest of the year.

The rotation the rest of the season would be Webb, Roupp, Whiz, Tidwell, Houser?? I really want to see Williamson, but we are really handcuffed with the coming lockout.

 

[LHG]

With the deadline behind us, time to pick up the pieces and take inventory.

The big question RIGHT NOW is finalizing the 40 and 26. We know Tidwell will be joining the rotation tomorrow. I doubt they will bother fine tuning to squeeze an extra day’s use out of someone. I suspect he will be added to the 26 for tonight.

We still have 3 more openings, and we NEED bully arms and an OFer. Is Cox ready to be activated? I would hate to have to add anyone to the 40 that we actually care about. Is Brennan still in the org? If he is, he could be added to the 40. Maybe Tanner Hill? We have lots of bully arms on the 40 who can be added with no problem.

The next issue that needs attention is to assess Mayer’s health. I get the sense that he isn’t seriously injured? If that is the case, then I want to see him at SS. If he can play there, then move Adames to 2B and go with that configuration the rest of the year.

The rotation the rest of the season would be Webb, Roupp, Whiz, Tidwell, Houser?? I really want to see Williamson, but we are really handcuffed with the coming lockout.

Cox is doing a rehab with Sacramento and, considering how recently he went on the IL, I would think he could be activated. Brennan, however, is still with Sacrameto. He or Hill could easily be added if need be.

I expect Houser to be put back into the starting rotation. The season is toast. The Giants probably want to know what to expect from him for 2027, assuming there is a 2027 season.

 

[LHG]

As of 8/2:
9-0 when they don't allow the other team to score
9-0 - 1 run allowed (18-0)
10-4 - 2 runs allowed (28-4)
7-9 - 3 runs allowed (35-13)
3-7 - 4 runs allowed (38-20)
3-10 - 5 runs allowed (41-28)
4-11 - 6 runs allowed (45-41)
0-6 - 7 runs allowed (46-47)
0-6 - 8 runs allowed (46-53)
1-5 - 9 runs allowed (46-58)
1-7 - 10 or more runs allowed (47-65)

21-0 when they score 7 runs or more
8-3 when they score 6 runs (29-3)
4-4 when they score 5 runs (33-7)
2-6 when they score 4 runs (35-13)
9-18 when they score 3 runs (44-31)
2-13 when they score 2 runs (46-44)
1-10 when they score 1 run (47-54)
0-11 when they get shut out (47-65)

Projected final record for 2026: 68-94

 

[LHG]

The Giants have 6 position players on the 10 day IL, 1 pitcher on the 15 day IL and 6 on the 60 day IL.

Rodriguez to be reevaluated the end of the week.

Chapman is unknown but surgery is possibly on the table, meaning his season could likely be done.

Mayer is supposed to be evaluated tomorrow. No idea what the timeline could be.

Schmitt is done for this season.

Bader is likely done for this season (TV says his return is a "longshot").

Bericoto just started a rehab assignment with Sacramento. No idea how long this assignment will be.

Butto seems to be a little ahead of Gage on throwing on flat ground (throwing twice the distance). However, he has been out longer and had some major surgery early in the year. Not sure if he will be able to return before the end of the season.

Gage is not eligible to come off the IL until Sept 4th. No idea if he will be back before the season is over but he is throwing on flat ground now.

McDonald had TJ surgery. May not be able to make it back for 2027, even if there is a season.

Peguero has been throwing bullpen sessions. He may go on a rehab assignment soon.

Birdsong, Rodriguez and Wick all had TJ surgery between last September and March. None should make it back for this season.

 

[calsnowskier]

Is there any reason to keep watching this team this year? There are a few players worthy of watching (Eldridge, Webb, Roupp, Lee, Whiz, Tidwell…) but the vast majority of this roster is just keeping seats warm for ‘28/‘29.

The pending lockout is absolutely ruining the remainder of this season. If it weren’t for the lockout, I suspect we would be seeing Williamson this year as well.

 

[LHG]

As of 8/5:
9-0 when they don't allow the other team to score
10-0 - 1 run allowed (19-0)
10-4 - 2 runs allowed (29-4)
7-9 - 3 runs allowed (36-13)
3-7 - 4 runs allowed (39-20)
3-11 - 5 runs allowed (42-29)
4-12 - 6 runs allowed (46-43)
0-6 - 7 runs allowed (47-49)
0-6 - 8 runs allowed (47-55)
1-5 - 9 runs allowed (47-60)
1-7 - 10 or more runs allowed (48-67)

21-0 when they score 7 runs or more
8-3 when they score 6 runs (29-3)
5-4 when they score 5 runs (34-7)
2-6 when they score 4 runs (36-13)
9-18 when they score 3 runs (45-31)
2-13 when they score 2 runs (47-44)
1-11 when they score 1 run (48-55)
0-12 when they get shut out (48-67)

Projected final record for 2026: 68-94

 

[LHG]

This seems so SF Giants, circa 2026:

The Giants picked up Eddys Leonard in late July after he opted out of his deal with the Brewers. In his 33 PAs with the River Cats, he walked 5 times and homered 4 times. That is all he did, giving him a lopsided .143/.273/.571 before his callup. He played 6 games at 1st base, 1 game at 2nd base and 1 game at 3rd base with the RiverCats so, of course, they call him up to play left field.

 

[calsnowskier]

This seems so SF Giants, circa 2026:

The Giants picked up Eddys Leonard in late July after he opted out of his deal with the Brewers. In his 33 PAs with the River Cats, he walked 5 times and homered 4 times. That is all he did, giving him a lopsided .143/.273/.571 before his callup. He played 6 games at 1st base, 1 game at 2nd base and 1 game at 3rd base with the RiverCats so, of course, they call him up to play left field.

Who controls the 26? Is that under Buster’s watch, or TV?

Basically, who do we blame for not adding Cox to the 26?

 

[LHG]

Who controls the 26? Is that under Buster’s watch, or TV?

Basically, who do we blame for not adding Cox to the 26?

My assumption is that TV makes requests but the GM would make the final decisions on who is called up and who is optioned. I don't know how much say each of TV, Minasian and Posey would have had in the decision to purchased Leonard's contract and option Cox after his brief rehab.

 

[LHG]

As of 8/9:
9-0 when they don't allow the other team to score
10-0 - 1 run allowed (19-0)
11-4 - 2 runs allowed (30-4)
7-10 - 3 runs allowed (37-14)
3-7 - 4 runs allowed (40-21)
3-11 - 5 runs allowed (43-30)
4-12 - 6 runs allowed (47-44)
0-6 - 7 runs allowed (48-50)
0-7 - 8 runs allowed (48-57)
1-5 - 9 runs allowed (48-62)
1-7 - 10 or more runs allowed (49-69)

21-0 when they score 7 runs or more
8-3 when they score 6 runs (29-3)
6-4 when they score 5 runs (35-7)
2-6 when they score 4 runs (37-13)
9-18 when they score 3 runs (46-31)
2-13 when they score 2 runs (48-44)
1-12 when they score 1 run (49-56)
0-13 when they get shut out (49-69)

Projected final record for 2026: 67-95

 

[calsnowskier]

As of 8/9:
9-0 when they don't allow the other team to score
10-0 - 1 run allowed (19-0)
11-4 - 2 runs allowed (30-4)
7-10 - 3 runs allowed (37-14)
3-7 - 4 runs allowed (40-21)
3-11 - 5 runs allowed (43-30)
4-12 - 6 runs allowed (47-44)
0-6 - 7 runs allowed (48-50)
0-7 - 8 runs allowed (48-57)
1-5 - 9 runs allowed (48-62)
1-7 - 10 or more runs allowed (49-69)

21-0 when they score 7 runs or more
8-3 when they score 6 runs (29-3)
6-4 when they score 5 runs (35-7)
2-6 when they score 4 runs (37-13)
9-18 when they score 3 runs (46-31)
2-13 when they score 2 runs (48-44)
1-12 when they score 1 run (49-56)
0-13 when they get shut out (49-69)

Projected final record for 2026: 67-95

So we need to win 5-2. That’s it.

Pittiful

 

[tzill]

For anyone keeping score:

Tyler Rogers fWAR w/ NYM - 0.4
Blade Tidwell/Drew Gilbert fWAR w/ Giants - 1.2

SF appears to have gotten 2 big leaguers in that deal. Gilbert is a solid 4th OF and Tidwell’s floor feels like a functional pen arm. Potentially a leverage RP or a SP.

 

[calsnowskier]

For anyone keeping score:

Tyler Rogers fWAR w/ NYM - 0.4
Blade Tidwell/Drew Gilbert fWAR w/ Giants - 1.2

SF appears to have gotten 2 big leaguers in that deal. Gilbert is a solid 4th OF and Tidwell’s floor feels like a functional pen arm. Potentially a leverage RP or a SP.

We got 2 MLB-ready prospects and a solid 7th inning bully arm for 2 mo this of an elite 8th inning bully arm. The Mutts knew what they were getting and likely knew what they were giving.

Ultimately it didn’t work out for the Mutts as they didn’t make the playoffs, but it was a trade for them to try to get there.

The logic is similar to the Wheeler/Beltran trade. You can’t honestly look back with 20/20 and criticize it because the two sides were looking for completely different things out of the trade.

You can honestly run the same analysis on anything in life. Last week, I traded $20 to a local theater in order to watch Spider-Man. Today, I have nothing while the theater has $20 in their bank account. They CLEARLY won that trade, right?

 

[calsnowskier]

So…

What are the chances that the new CBA will have a reworked draft lottery? The Giants are getting SCREWED, because they actually got a little good luck.

It makes no sense that teams that contribute to revenue sharing are the only teams that can get screwed in the lottery.

 

[LHG]

So…

What are the chances that the new CBA will have a reworked draft lottery? The Giants are getting SCREWED, because they actually got a little good luck.

It makes no sense that teams that contribute to revenue sharing are the only teams that can get screwed in the lottery.

It is possible. The owners came up with a huge rework of the draft. I would think that means they want to make changes and are swinging hard for radical changes so they can get some smaller ones done. I wouldn't be surprised if this is an area that some owners at least want changed.

 

[calsnowskier]

It is possible. The owners came up with a huge rework of the draft. I would think that means they want to make changes and are swinging hard for radical changes so they can get some smaller ones done. I wouldn't be surprised if this is an area that some owners at least want changed.

I want to see the draft eliminated entirely. Treat the whole thing the way they treat the international amateur market. Each team has a pool of money they can spend as they see fit. And the international pool and domestic pool should not be separate sets. The amount of money each team can spend is based on their previous year’s record.

If the Braves like a kid and want to dump their entire pool into a single player, have at it. If the Brewers just want to sign 45 relative nobody’s, they are allowed.

I would imagine teams would be able to trade draft funds, though. Probably makes sense that there would still be “fund packets” that teams earn in place of “draft picks” that they would be able to trade instead. The “#1 draft picks” would translate to “fund packets #1” and would be worth $11M. The team that holds that asset would be able to trade it if they wanted to.

This would give the players the ability to test the free market while giving teams flexibility to really benefit from a strong scouting department. The negative is that players would no longer have the “tag” of being a “3rd round pick in 2030”, so casual fans would have a harder time identifying top prospects.

 

[tzill]

It is possible. The owners came up with a huge rework of the draft. I would think that means they want to make changes and are swinging hard for radical changes so they can get some smaller ones done. I wouldn't be surprised if this is an area that some owners at least want changed.

As long as we get a cap and a floor I'll be pleased.

And I'm willing to sacrifice the 27 season to get them.

 

[tzill]

MLB owners are reportedly proposing a $245.3 million salary cap AND a $171.2 million payroll floor starting in 2027. A cap would be a massive change for baseball, but that payroll floor might be just as interesting. This next CBA fight will get ugly.

 

[calsnowskier]

MLB owners are reportedly proposing a $245.3 million salary cap AND a $171.2 million payroll floor starting in 2027. A cap would be a massive change for baseball, but that payroll floor might be just as interesting. This next CBA fight will get ugly.

Depending on how it will be calculated.

From COTs, looking at their 2026 Tax-payroll numbers, these are the teams that currently fall UNDER the floor ($171.2M)…

Marlins $84.0M
Guardians $92.4M
Cardinals &108.4M
Rays $114.0M
White Sox $117.3M
Nationals #120.3M
Twins $137.9M
Rockies $138.8M
Pirates $140.4M
A’s $143.5M
Reds $150.3M
Brewers $155.8M

These teams are currently over the proposed ceiling ($245.3M)…

Dodgers $430.4M
Mets $362.6M
Yankees $341.1M
Phillies $321.8M
Blue Jays $315.1M
Red Sox $274.0M
Cubs $266.1M
Padres $264.4M
Braves $258.1M

I think the boundaries need to be tiered (penalty 1 within this range, penalty 2 within this range, etc; and each year you in penalty, your tier level increases by 1) and the penalties should be PRIMARILY baseball asset based (lost draft picks, dropped protection years on prospects, etc).

But on the surface, those levels seem reasonable to me.