2022-23 Season Pace

[MHSL82]

These are not rankings.

These aren't on who's the best team, but how their seasons are going compared to other teams for the first 10th (roughly) of the season. I lined up each team in vertical columns on their first game, second game, etc. For example, here it is so far:



Here are the rankings of how many wins they have through X number of games:



Yes, Sacramento Kings have only played 7 games and they play a 2-7 Orlando team. If they win today, they will still be in the same spot, just with 181 instead of 187. Lower is better. Right now, teams that won early are artificially high. As more games are played, they will drop if they lose. Every game is equally weighted, so Detroit, for example, is way to high due to winning their first game before other teams won. Lakers are bad, but games 6-82 will be much better than 1-5 games (by definition since they can't be worse than 0-5).

Only 14 teams won their 3rd or 4th game. 17 and maybe 18 if the Kings win, won their 8th game played.

Yes, I am married with children so I don't get laid. There... may be other reasons.

 

[nuraman00]

Yes, I am married with children so I don't get laid.

You don't want to show your family the proper technique?

 

[nuraman00]

What do numbers like 206 or 198 mean?

 

[MHSL82]

What do numbers like 206 or 198 mean?

That’s the total of all the numbers on the right. So for example, Milwaukee has eight because they were first at every stage since they were undefeated through 8 games. So 1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1 = 8.

Why is the first game not 15 first place teams and 15 16th place teams? Because someone’s win in their first game may be against someone playing in their second game.

The smaller number is better so that’s why the Jazz are listed third.

 

[nuraman00]

What does the # 17 for some team's first games mean?

Is it because 16 teams played their first game before the rest did?

 

[MHSL82]

What does the # 17 for some team's first games mean?

Is it because 16 teams played their first game before the rest did?

It is their win ranking up to that point of the season. 16 teams won their first game, so they were in a 1st place tie for most wins through one played game. So after their first game, those who had zero wins were tied for 17th place.

 

[MHSL82]

As far as Utah’s pace, if I take the record of all the remaining teams, home or away, it leads to a prediction of 45 wins. The way I did it is, if a team is 4–1 at home, that would give the Jazz 20% chance of winning that game. So that was written as 0.2. Doing that for all remaining 70 games, results in 35.92 wins.

Obviously, they don’t just have 20% chance of winning and I didn’t take Utah’s hone and away percentages into account. 0 at home and so I feel that was cute too much, 5–2 or 5-3, knock on wood, wood, be more realistic, maybe?

If I take the average of what Utah is regularly and what the other team is regularly, that leads to a 55.2 expected win total, which I think is too much. But then again, going 36–34 in the remaining 70 would be disappointing. To me anyway.

So 45-37 to 55-27 average is 50 wins. Sounds too much as well.

 

[nuraman00]

But then again, going 36–34 in the remaining 70 would be disappointing.

That's either realistic, or even too high.

In 2002-2003, Indiana started 37 - 15.

They finished 11 - 19.

This Jazz team will have a Pacers like stretch.

There will be a 4 game losing streak at some point.

 

[nuraman00]

In 2006-2007, Utah started 12 - 1. They finished 39 - 30.

 

[MHSL82]

That's either realistic, or even too high.

In 2002-2003, Indiana started 37 - 15.

They finished 11 - 19.

This Jazz team will have a Pacers like stretch.

There will be a 4 game losing streak at some point.

Bad take. We are not the Pacers. I know we’ll have a relative worse streak, like maybe 13-17, 12-18, or 10-20, but never 11-19.

Seriously though, we are not the Pacers nor a super team. 36-34 would be disappointing. Especially since we beat the Hawks tonight. That means it would be 35–34 in the next 69.

 

[nuraman00]

As you are well aware, Portland won 13 games in a row in 2007-2008. They went 28 - 41 in the rest of their games.

When the Jazz were at 8 - 3, my prediction was that they would go .500 or less for the remaining 71 games.

Possibly going 33 - 38.

 

[MHSL82]

As you are well aware, Portland won 13 games in a row in 2007-2008. They went 28 - 41 in the rest of their games.

When the Jazz were at 8 - 3, my prediction was that they would go .500 or less for the remaining 71 games.

Possibly going 33 - 38.

Yeah, but you are wrong. You haven’t factored THAT into your formula have you?

 

[nuraman00]

Yeah, but you are wrong. You haven’t factored THAT into your formula have you?

 

[MHSL82]

Second Tenth of the Season:



Total:

 

[nuraman00]

There will be a 4 game losing streak at some point.

It's happening.

 

[MHSL82]

It's happening.

Yeah, no need for any “I told you so’s.” We’re either rooting for the Jazz or we’re not. Did I think we were number one in the west with Conley? No. I knew that teams would take us more seriously and also have more film on us. We would also have more film on them. We would not have a four-game losing streak right now if he stayed healthy.

Now, of course, we knew he wouldn’t stay healthy. So therefore, I think we all know that there was going to be a streak. I will wager nothing but state that I believe that we will not have a four-game losing streak when he plays. We had a three-game losing streak with him on the road. so it’s possible, but I don’t think it will.

That’s not to say that he is a worldbeater. It‘s just that we are not a team that’s good enough to miss somebody who starts. They’re missing Conley and while one may say he’s not as good as he used to be, we need everyone to play in order to do well.

We are not like the Clippers who are actually better when George sits. As much credit that I have given to Markkanen for our good start, I also put some blame for him not being consistent. However, I think the big problem was not having Conley, regardless of what Sexton does, because I believe Sexton would do it off the bench.

By the way, I said that 33–38 would be disappointing. And I joked that you were wrong. But, I don’t think I really believed it couldn’t happen, just disappointing. To get to 45 wins, we will need to win 33 of the remaining 60. It doesn’t seem too far-fetched given that experts have said that we had a difficult schedule to start. Plus, we will be getting Michael Jordan back. I mean Mike Conley.

 

[MHSL82]

 

[nuraman00]

Yeah, no need for any “I told you so’s.” We’re either rooting for the Jazz or we’re not. Did I think we were number one in the west with Conley? No. I knew that teams would take us more seriously and also have more film on us. We would also have more film on them. We would not have a four-game losing streak right now if he stayed healthy.

Now, of course, we knew he wouldn’t stay healthy. So therefore, I think we all know that there was going to be a streak. I will wager nothing but state that I believe that we will not have a four-game losing streak when he plays. We had a three-game losing streak with him on the road. so it’s possible, but I don’t think it will.

That’s not to say that he is a worldbeater. It‘s just that we are not a team that’s good enough to miss somebody who starts. They’re missing Conley and while one may say he’s not as good as he used to be, we need everyone to play in order to do well.

We are not like the Clippers who are actually better when George sits. As much credit that I have given to Markkanen for our good start, I also put some blame for him not being consistent. However, I think the big problem was not having Conley, regardless of what Sexton does, because I believe Sexton would do it off the bench.

By the way, I said that 33–38 would be disappointing. And I joked that you were wrong. But, I don’t think I really believed it couldn’t happen, just disappointing. To get to 45 wins, we will need to win 33 of the remaining 60. It doesn’t seem too far-fetched given that experts have said that we had a difficult schedule to start. Plus, we will be getting Michael Jordan back. I mean Mike Conley.

I did not know Conley Jr. would get injured. I rarely predict injuries.

I also didn't think too much about the possibility of him getting injured.

Good to know 45 wins is your goal.

Good to know there's a benchmark of avoiding 4 game losing streaks when Conley Jr. is healthy.

I don't know if my statement was an I told you so 100%, or if it was part "I can't believe it's happening in November, I thought it wouldn't happen until January or March" or part "this is what's happening now", since I hadn't posted much since the previous pair of games that ended up wins, and I was checking in and surprised at how much things had changed in 1.5 weeks. I don't think my statement contained as much of an I told you so, as it did other emotions.

Actually you said 36 W, 34 L in the remaining 70 games would be disappointing. So that means the smallest non disappointing goal would have been 37 W, 33 L. I think going 37-33, while having a potential 4 game losing streak mid season, would have been difficult.

Also, I brought up other teams as examples, as teams that had a 10 - 20 game stretch where they played well, and a large stretch where they didn't. Because I'm trying to think of what other teams they reminded me of.

I think the Portland team that won 13 in a row, in 2007 - 2008, and finished with 41 wins, is probably the best comparison to this team.

By the way, I said that 33–38 would be disappointing. And I joked that you were wrong. But, I don’t think I really believed it couldn’t happen, just disappointing. To get to 45 wins, we will need to win 33 of the remaining 60. It doesn’t seem too far-fetched given that experts have said that we had a difficult schedule to start. Plus, we will be getting Michael Jordan back. I mean Mike Conley.

Too bad there's no strikethrough button.

Since this is a Jazz forum, shouldn't it be Pete Maravich, Mark Eaton, John Stockton, The Money Man Carlos Boozer, Donovon Mitchell, or Rudy Gobert?

 

[nuraman00]

I like seeing footage that I didn't know existed, or happened.

 

[MHSL82]

I don't know if my statement was an I told you so 100%, or if it was part "I can't believe it's happening in November, I thought it wouldn't happen until January or March" or part "this is what's happening now", since I hadn't posted much since the previous pair of games that ended up wins, and I was checking in and surprised at how much things had changed in 1.5 weeks. I don't think my statement contained as much of an I told you so, as it did other emotions.

I, last night, WAS in a bad mood but not mad at what you said. I was trying to be funny about it, but clearly my mood was apparent. Not that it matters, but I don’t anticipate a situation where I’d be mad at you or what you said… not that your response here has anything to do with me being mad or not. ‘Cause who cares if any of us are mad about sports?