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2022 10 FF Injury Situations To Keep An Eye On

FaCe-LeE-uS

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Came across this thread that had some decent tidbits so thought I'd share the highlights:

10 Injury Situations you need to know for 2022 FF:
  • JK Dobbins is behind on his ACL recovery Beat reporters suggest his injury was worse than originally reported.
    • So who benefits? Gus Edwards tore his ACL but is on track for week 1. He is 1 of 2 RBs ever to begin career with 3 yrs of 700+yds & 5 ypc. Currently being drafted OUTSIDE of top-50 RBs in drafts.
  • Michael Gallup is expected to miss at least 4-6 weeks, as opposed to the extremely optimistic outlook of 1-2 weeks that Jerruh seemed to imply. Yet he's still being drafted in round 9 ahead of the likes of Jakobi Meyers & Kenny Golladay.
    • So who benefits? Dalton Schultz & Jalen Tolbert. Schultz was 2nd on Dallas with 104 targets last season & has continuously been getting better each year. Tolbert had a top-5% target share of all-time in college, and is currently a projected day 1 starter.
  • Michael Thomas is still not practicing. If he gets on the field in camps this offseason then he becomes instant value.
    • But if not, who benefits? The saints essentially traded 5 picks to draft Chris Olave. That type of investment is historic & incentivizes huge usage. He needs to start becoming more of a priority in FF drafts.
  • Odell Beckham Jr is expected to miss upwards of 10-12 weeks yet is still being drafted. Getting injured in the SB is terrible timing for his 2022 outlook.
    • So who benefits? Since he's a FA, nobody. But looking at where he left... Allen Robinson & Van Jefferson. Robinson has fantastic value this year. He is still debatably a premier talent at WR, and is getting massive upgrade at QB & in the offensive system in general. He should have a meteoric rise back to prominence. Jefferson has good deep ball value and has a good floor for a WR3. He could eat into A-Rob's share if he doesn't perform as expected.
  • Chris Godwin is expected to miss 6 weeks and is being taken in the 5th Rd of most drafts... Ahead of players like Amari Cooper & Darnell Mooney.
    • So who benefits? Russell Gage will be Tom Brady's WR2 this year and is currently flying under the radar in drafts. Tyler Johnson received volume in wake of Godwin missing time, but he struggles to separate at the NFL level.
  • James Robinson had achilles surgery in late December which means he'll likely miss out until November unless they rush him back.
    • So who benefits? Travis Etienne should be the clear RB1, but he is also coming off a serious foot injury he sustained in August of 2021. He should be ready week 1 this season.
  • Jameson WIlliams is expected to miss at least 4-6 weeks. There is a good chance he misses more time if Detroit opts for the safe route with their 1st Rd pick.
    • So who benefits? DJ Chark will now start in 2WR sets. Chark was a top-10 WR in Air-Yards his last 2 *HEALTHY* seasons. His average fantasy finish as an NFL starter is 29th which is a pretty good floor all things considered. Yet he is still currently being drafted no better than the 68th WR in drafts this year. Are people really that enamored with Amon-Ra St. Brown? I get it, it's the Lions. Hard to buy in. But someone has to catch balls in Detroit & Chark presents the most upside.
  • Robert Woods could be ready week 1, but that is best-case scenario for a 30-yr old receiver coming off his 2nd major soft-tissue/ligament tear (groin in 2015, ACL in 2021). We are roughly 8-months removed from his injury, and will be 10-months removed by week 1. He should be ready, but the team may be cautious with him all offseason, meaning he may have limitations for the first month of the season while he works his way back.
    • So who benefits? Outside of Treylon Burks there is a whole lotta WHO? on the depth chart. Although there is good upside with combine-star Kyle Phillips (he was also a top-8% target share all time at UCLA). Burks has decent WR1 upside in a run-first offensive scheme. But don't be afraid of Derrick Henry & the scheme, because you must consider the AFC landscape. If the Titans want to contend with this insane conference, then they will inevitably need to pass the ball effectively. They face off against Josh Allen, Derek Carr, Matt Ryan x2, Pat Mahomes, Russ Wilson, A-Rodgers, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, & Dak Prescott this year. Yea, they'll need to throw all right.
  • James White dislocated his hip in September & missed 15 games in 2021. This is a complicated injury to return from for a 30 yr old RB. He isn't expected to be 100% by week 1. And White could be headed to the chop block in a crowded room, and he is due just $500k in guarantees. Yikes.
    • So who benefits? Complicated answer when you have a room with Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Ty Montgomery, JJ Taylor, 4th Rd pick Pierre Strong & 6th Rd pick Kevin Harris. The Patriots don't just draft 2 RBs on a whim. This room could get complicated in a hurry, but I'd feel safest with Harris, but even that is a foolish venture given the Hoodie's system & the history of their projected starters. Remember Gillislee? or Michel?
  • John Metchie is recovering from a December ACL tear & the earliest he can return is mid-September. Optimistic outcome is he misses 1-2 weeks.
    • So who benefits? Brandin Cooks has been one of the most productive "after-thoughts" in FF the past some-odd seasons. Cooks has a role with or without Metchie, but without he could see the slot more which puts him right where he needs to be. Cooks was a top-12 WR on a per target basis from the slot, and played just 24% of the time from the slot in 2021. Cooks developed great chemistry with Davis Mills last season, and enter new OC Pep Hamilton who made a star out of another undersized WR in TY Hilton. Cooks could easy be targeted 9-10 times per game.
 

averagejoe

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Good stuff.
Thanks, Face.
 

leftypower

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Very nice info and insight. I'd add that in HOU, Brevin Jordan (TE) could be a nice catch in the late rds of drafts. Quietly, his target share and production both bumped up considerably late in the season. Perhaps one to watch on a team that will have to throw a ton just to keep game somewhat close. Nico could also benefit.
 
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