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2021 NFL Draft thread

Clayton

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So now to the offseason.

  • Round 1: Pick 31
  • Round 2: Pick 63
  • Round 3: Pick 95
  • Round 4: Pick 127
  • Round 5: Pick 159
  • Round 6: None
  • Round 7: Pick 223

Not a ton of draft stock there but still enough picks to work with. Grabbing these team needs from CBS:

Biggest offseason needs​

  • Interior offensive line
  • Offensive tackle
  • Cornerback
  • Edge rusher
  • Wide receiver
  • Interior defensive line

Likely back: Laurent Duvernay-Tardif OG, Lucas Niang OT, and Damien Williams RB.

Likely gone: Bashaud Breeland CB, Sammy Watkins WR and Demarcus Robinson WR.


I think that structurally the Chiefs need to address LT long-term. At their current draft position, you see a lot of guys that are probably around the same talent level as Niang who went through the Big 12 as a beast but also went through the Big 12 so was relatively untested. You see guys like Tevin Jenkins out of Oklahoma St being mocked around the end of rd1 and if thats what the Chiefs are looking at then maybe thats not the direction they'll go. They don't have a ton of ammo to go up in the draft but if they do then LT and DE are basically the only positions that would be worthwhile. I suspect they won't go up for a LT, though. If Fisher or Schwartz retires then I'd imagine that will free up cash to make a FA move. So that seems like the play.

DE on the other hand is a bit of a mess. Frank Clark is overpaid. Kpassagnon isn't someone who fits the system well and just not really someone that should be relied on. That last place Red Zone Defense is also certainly a product of lackluster DE play. I think PFF had their Edge play as worst in the league. I think with Clark's massive contract, the draft is the way to go. The tendency has been to target DE in rd2 but we've also seen that this strategy has failed so far. I think pick #31 should be a pass rusher if one is available at that spot.

WR is probably draft need #2 behind pass rusher. The team was able to function just fine without Watkins and Robinson but the Chiefs have to make sure Mahomes still has weapons. Hardman is talented and its a good thing he is in the mix but he really hasn't shown up in either playoff run. I guess alternatively this could be a pass-catching TE but WR seems like the more likely play.

I kinda also expect them to draft a Safety at some point because that position is so important on the Chiefs. Developing another young Safety is likely important to the long-term health of the team.
 

BigKen

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Good place to see every teams salary cap position in 2021.

Chiefs are not going to be able to do much of anything in free agency. They'll need to cut players to make up for the near $19M that they are over the cap. They also have to set aside another $5M for the draft.

2021 is lousy year to be a free agent as 11 teams are over the cap and more than few are sitting in a position where they will alo have to cut players to be able to meet the necessary money needed for the draft.

2021 will be the year of the Team Financial Genius as they all scramble.
 

Clayton

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Good place to see every teams salary cap position in 2021.

Chiefs are not going to be able to do much of anything in free agency. They'll need to cut players to make up for the near $19M that they are over the cap. They also have to set aside another $5M for the draft.

2021 is lousy year to be a free agent as 11 teams are over the cap and more than few are sitting in a position where they will alo have to cut players to be able to meet the necessary money needed for the draft.

2021 will be the year of the Team Financial Genius as they all scramble.
Its a bit of a fiasco for the Chiefs but could also be a boon as other teams scramble, too, and overpaid veteran players look for competitive teams to ride out their last years.

Sammy Watkins seems like someone who will sign a 'prove it' deal somewhere. He is only 27. I can't imagine the Chiefs will get involved with his injury history and the fact that there will be a hefty price tag for him. I'm not sure anyone is looking for many of the other guys the Chiefs will be losing so they might end up back on the team at really cheap prices.

Darrel Williams, Daniel Sorensen, Bashaud Breeland, Charvarius Ward, Damien Wilson, Ben Niemann, Austin Rieter, Andrew Wylie, Mike Remmers and Tanoh Kpassngon.

I'm not sure there is a market for any of these guys and they all seem pretty replaceable. Breeland and Ward both leaving seem like an issue, though.

A scenario that SI seems to have championed is that the Chiefs could cut Anthony Hitchens, Alec Okafor, and Eric Fisher. I think this is still probable. If thats the case, Fisher is the big hole to fill. I do think Niang was drafted last year with the idea of maybe filling that gap but I think the Chiefs would try to bring in a veteran in FA even if it was just a mid tier veteran at best. If not, there is probably what the rd1 pick will be.

This is a deep draft with pass rushers, safeties, and wide receivers. Not too worried there. The strategy of hitting OT in rd1 and then Edge in rd2, and then CB, WR, S for the rest of the draft seems to be wise.

Chiefs will have some issues, obviously, but Hitchens, Fisher, and Watkins have always been overpaid imo. The bigger issue is that because Alex Smith was so successful that Mahomes doesn't have the depth on the team that someone like Baker Mayfield has when dealing with these issues long-term. Still, I think next year the team will be entering the season somewhere in-between the talent level of the Super Bowl from this year and the Super Bowl from last year.

The bigger issue for the Chiefs is that the AFC West is catching up. Herbert is good. Chargers defense is good. New coach might be better than what they had or that the very least more clutch. The Raiders have had so much draft stock that eventually some of their young players will improve and if Carr is still on board then they'll be a playoff threat. The Raiders basically traded away Mack to 'peak' around now. You then have Denver who has been drafting well and has a good defensive coach and is really just a QB and or offensive rapport away from being a playoff theat.

The NFL isnt really designed to have dynasties. Mahomes is going to have to carry things at some point. Sometimes that will look like the Super Bowl where no one else shows up.
 

BigKen

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Its a bit of a fiasco for the Chiefs but could also be a boon as other teams scramble, too, and overpaid veteran players look for competitive teams to ride out their last years.

Sammy Watkins seems like someone who will sign a 'prove it' deal somewhere. He is only 27. I can't imagine the Chiefs will get involved with his injury history and the fact that there will be a hefty price tag for him. I'm not sure anyone is looking for many of the other guys the Chiefs will be losing so they might end up back on the team at really cheap prices.

Darrel Williams, Daniel Sorensen, Bashaud Breeland, Charvarius Ward, Damien Wilson, Ben Niemann, Austin Rieter, Andrew Wylie, Mike Remmers and Tanoh Kpassngon.

I'm not sure there is a market for any of these guys and they all seem pretty replaceable. Breeland and Ward both leaving seem like an issue, though.

A scenario that SI seems to have championed is that the Chiefs could cut Anthony Hitchens, Alec Okafor, and Eric Fisher. I think this is still probable. If thats the case, Fisher is the big hole to fill. I do think Niang was drafted last year with the idea of maybe filling that gap but I think the Chiefs would try to bring in a veteran in FA even if it was just a mid tier veteran at best. If not, there is probably what the rd1 pick will be.

This is a deep draft with pass rushers, safeties, and wide receivers. Not too worried there. The strategy of hitting OT in rd1 and then Edge in rd2, and then CB, WR, S for the rest of the draft seems to be wise.

Chiefs will have some issues, obviously, but Hitchens, Fisher, and Watkins have always been overpaid imo. The bigger issue is that because Alex Smith was so successful that Mahomes doesn't have the depth on the team that someone like Baker Mayfield has when dealing with these issues long-term. Still, I think next year the team will be entering the season somewhere in-between the talent level of the Super Bowl from this year and the Super Bowl from last year.

The bigger issue for the Chiefs is that the AFC West is catching up. Herbert is good. Chargers defense is good. New coach might be better than what they had or that the very least more clutch. The Raiders have had so much draft stock that eventually some of their young players will improve and if Carr is still on board then they'll be a playoff threat. The Raiders basically traded away Mack to 'peak' around now. You then have Denver who has been drafting well and has a good defensive coach and is really just a QB and or offensive rapport away from being a playoff theat.

The NFL isnt really designed to have dynasties. Mahomes is going to have to carry things at some point. Sometimes that will look like the Super Bowl where no one else shows up.
Mahomes is a monster talent. He has gifts that few possess. Right now, he doesn't have that "I'll drink your blood from your boot" Mentality. When something goes wrong, he does get that look like he needs to kill someone even if it's himself, to fix whatever has to be fixed. He gets that "Oh shit, why me?" look. A couple of times he's come out of that shell and went to nearly every guy on the sideline and pumped them up. That's when he's churning inside and becomes a deadly advisary. That's when he'll cut your throat with a laugh and play in the spilled blood. Right now, he can't summon that Patrick Mahomes to surface on command. He may never be able to do it.

Every team is facing the same challenge this off season. Trying to keep the best of their core in place and building enough of a support mechanism around it to make it work and work better than 1. their division, 2. their confernece and finally 3. The rest of the league. Come March 17th the first steps will be taken. The fools will be throwing money at who they think will make their team better and that has rarely worked in free agency. Careful traeding is critical. Watch the Jags, Jets and Colts. Especially the Colts. They had a the best defense and rough offense and now they need to take a huge step with the offense and try to keep the defense together. My sense is that they will go nuts on offense and not correctly replace the pieces on defense..........Remember the P. Manning years? My gut is telling me Deshaun Watson lands in INdy and that they will spend like hell on WRs in free agency. They won't have the draft capital to make the moves that they really need to make and will still be wondering what went wrong in 2024.
 

Clayton

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Mahomes is a monster talent. He has gifts that few possess. Right now, he doesn't have that "I'll drink your blood from your boot" Mentality. When something goes wrong, he does get that look like he needs to kill someone even if it's himself, to fix whatever has to be fixed. He gets that "Oh shit, why me?" look. A couple of times he's come out of that shell and went to nearly every guy on the sideline and pumped them up. That's when he's churning inside and becomes a deadly advisary. That's when he'll cut your throat with a laugh and play in the spilled blood. Right now, he can't summon that Patrick Mahomes to surface on command. He may never be able to do it.

Every team is facing the same challenge this off season. Trying to keep the best of their core in place and building enough of a support mechanism around it to make it work and work better than 1. their division, 2. their confernece and finally 3. The rest of the league. Come March 17th the first steps will be taken. The fools will be throwing money at who they think will make their team better and that has rarely worked in free agency. Careful traeding is critical. Watch the Jags, Jets and Colts. Especially the Colts. They had a the best defense and rough offense and now they need to take a huge step with the offense and try to keep the defense together. My sense is that they will go nuts on offense and not correctly replace the pieces on defense..........Remember the P. Manning years? My gut is telling me Deshaun Watson lands in INdy and that they will spend like hell on WRs in free agency. They won't have the draft capital to make the moves that they really need to make and will still be wondering what went wrong in 2024.
I think you have Mahomes all wrong. The Super Bowl wasn't a wake up call for Mahomes. It was a wake up call to Andy Reid, Eric Bieniemy, and the Chiefs GM. Mahomes has plenty of grit.

My focus is on the AFC West. With the new playoff format, the bye week requires a ton of luck. Chiefs just need to get to 11 wins and stay healthy.
 

Clayton

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team logo

  • 31.
    Alex Leatherwood
    OT Alabama

  • 63.
    Patrick Jones
    EDGE Pitt

  • 94.
    Greg Newsome II
    CB Northwestern

  • 126.
    Caden Sterns
    S Texas

  • 144.
    Drake Jackson
    OC Kentucky

  • 158.
    Trevon Grimes
    WR Florida

  • 181.
    Trill Williams
    CB Syracuse

    Did a mock draft on the simulator to see roughly what might be possible. Not really sure what picks the Chiefs actually have now. Leatherwood likely will fall a bit in the draft because I think there are questions about his ability to play tackle but he has a lot of good reps in pass protection and is built like a top tier tackle so this seems like a plausible pick. Its definitely a dice roll, though. Patrick Jones' draft range is all over the place but he seems like someone the Chiefs would target. High motor, high upside guy although his film really just shows that his sacks are really more coverage sacks than anything. Greg Newsome is a rd2 type of CB prospect who has only played 17 games in 3 years so even me taking him in rd3 might be a bit high. Drake Jackson is a plug and play Center prospect. Grimes is a 5 star flop in college that may or may not be a deep threat.
 

Clayton

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Ah, okay. The Chiefs have an additional 4th rounder because of Kendall Fuller signing on Washington and an additional 5th rounder because Ogbah signed with Miami. So the Chiefs have 8 picks.
 

Clayton

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I'm seeing 4 obvious rd1 LT prospects: Sewell, Slater, Darrisaw, and Cosmi. Cosmi is likely the only one on that list that seems likely.

Chiefs could plug and play Radunz at LT but I'm not fully sure how strong his core is. This is the type of player the Chiefs would draft I'm just not 100% sure he is a 1st rounder. Liam Eichenberg in the same category but a bit safer.

Jalen Mayfield is in the 'project' LT zone. Low floor, phenomenal upside.

Walker Little is firmly in the project LT zone. Probably an Eric Fisher level of struggle in his rookie year I'd imagine and then possibly improvement after that. I love a freakishly tall player named Little, though. Basically hasn't played in years. The type of value Veach would love...but not in rd1. I could see the Chiefs drafting him in rd2.

Tevin Jenkins was an RT in college and will be an RT or a great RG in the NFL probably. Run blocker, not a great fit imo. Alex Leatherwood and Jackson Carman are in the same mold. Certainly not a fit in rd1.

So the three fits for the Chiefs are Cosmi, Eichenberg and Radunz. Its hard to think that any prospect lower than that will be seen as enough of an improvement over Niang to be worth looking at in the first 3 rounds. If thats the case then they might keep Eric Fisher around and do some cap voodoo economics or just cut someone unexpected.
 

cdumler7

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Good place to see every teams salary cap position in 2021.

Chiefs are not going to be able to do much of anything in free agency. They'll need to cut players to make up for the near $19M that they are over the cap. They also have to set aside another $5M for the draft.

2021 is lousy year to be a free agent as 11 teams are over the cap and more than few are sitting in a position where they will alo have to cut players to be able to meet the necessary money needed for the draft.

2021 will be the year of the Team Financial Genius as they all scramble.

Actually the draft class will cost over $7 million for the Chiefs this year and will need to free up money for another $5-7 million for during the season. And probably another $5-7 million for RFA and ERFA's that will need to be retained. The Chiefs are helped by already having 57 players under contract (about middle of the pack), but they are definitely going to have to do some work on contract design with some veterans or make some major cuts. Eric Fischer is the easiest cut, but it does leave an obvious hole on the roster and with Niang coming off injury as well as Mitchell Schwartz they will need at least a tackle or two depth wise no matter what.
 

cdumler7

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I think you have Mahomes all wrong. The Super Bowl wasn't a wake up call for Mahomes. It was a wake up call to Andy Reid, Eric Bieniemy, and the Chiefs GM. Mahomes has plenty of grit.

My focus is on the AFC West. With the new playoff format, the bye week requires a ton of luck. Chiefs just need to get to 11 wins and stay healthy.

Bad coach Andy Reid reared his ugly head in that Super Bowl. Reid is easily a top-3 coach in the NFL but he has two major flaws when it comes to games. The first is clock management. Most of the bad losses in the playoffs that I have seen for Reid happen because he just does something stupid with the clock. Saw it at the end of the half in the Super Bowl. Should have just been ok getting to halftime down and regroup. Instead he got greedy thinking that was the time to take a risk and see what Mahomes could do.
The other is he sometimes struggles to adjust his game plan early on when things are not working. Last year Mahomes was able to cover some of that up with his incredible play, but this game was not one of those moments. They were running for something like 8 yards a carry in the 1st half but only rushed it 4 times if I remember right. You've got 2 backup tackles in the game that are struggling and a team daring you to run by keeping 2 safeties back the entire game. Reid refused to adjust and it cost them big time. By the time they could really adjust at half time that last second touchdown before the half made that adjustment pretty impossible.
Mahomes was great and the rest of the team/coaching staff let him down.
 

Clayton

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Bad coach Andy Reid reared his ugly head in that Super Bowl. Reid is easily a top-3 coach in the NFL but he has two major flaws when it comes to games. The first is clock management. Most of the bad losses in the playoffs that I have seen for Reid happen because he just does something stupid with the clock. Saw it at the end of the half in the Super Bowl. Should have just been ok getting to halftime down and regroup. Instead he got greedy thinking that was the time to take a risk and see what Mahomes could do.
The other is he sometimes struggles to adjust his game plan early on when things are not working. Last year Mahomes was able to cover some of that up with his incredible play, but this game was not one of those moments. They were running for something like 8 yards a carry in the 1st half but only rushed it 4 times if I remember right. You've got 2 backup tackles in the game that are struggling and a team daring you to run by keeping 2 safeties back the entire game. Reid refused to adjust and it cost them big time. By the time they could really adjust at half time that last second touchdown before the half made that adjustment pretty impossible.
Mahomes was great and the rest of the team/coaching staff let him down.
Roster luck and roster management were the largest issues with the Super Bowl, imo. Tampa Bay had the better healthy roster and it wasn't really all that close. A couple of the most important offensive plays were totally blown up by terrible oline play. Veach blowing his Free Agency load on Anthony Hitchens and Sammy Watkins won him the Super Bowl against the Niners but the volatility of those bad signings showed up one year later when they were nonfactors.

I do think Reid had major issues not adjusting and the Chiefs should have run the ball but I think even with the proper gameplan the Chiefs still probably lose by 10-14 points. CEH should have gotten the ball more and there should have been more check downs and that game would've been way closer. I do think even with a sensible strategy towards running the football and short passes that the Chiefs would've had serious issues on offense in the red zone against the Bucs D.

The clock thing is kind of a meme to me. It matters but not nearly as much as fans from other teams think. The Chiefs were straight aces in close games this year. The refs calling the game tight was a much bigger factor. If they called the Chiefs like that earlier in the playoffs then the Chiefs would've lost to the Browns.
 

cdumler7

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Roster luck and roster management were the largest issues with the Super Bowl, imo. Tampa Bay had the better healthy roster and it wasn't really all that close. A couple of the most important offensive plays were totally blown up by terrible oline play. Veach blowing his Free Agency load on Anthony Hitchens and Sammy Watkins won him the Super Bowl against the Niners but the volatility of those bad signings showed up one year later when they were nonfactors.

I do think Reid had major issues not adjusting and the Chiefs should have run the ball but I think even with the proper gameplan the Chiefs still probably lose by 10-14 points. CEH should have gotten the ball more and there should have been more check downs and that game would've been way closer. I do think even with a sensible strategy towards running the football and short passes that the Chiefs would've had serious issues on offense in the red zone against the Bucs D.

The clock thing is kind of a meme to me. It matters but not nearly as much as fans from other teams think. The Chiefs were straight aces in close games this year. The refs calling the game tight was a much bigger factor. If they called the Chiefs like that earlier in the playoffs then the Chiefs would've lost to the Browns.

I agree that most likely the Chiefs still lose. The Bucs had a great game plan on both sides of the ball and those Red Zone issues would have still shown up even if they ran the ball well.

Like I said Reid is a top-3 coach in the NFL and I would love to see him coaching the Broncos. Every coach has their issues and it got magnified in that Super Bowl on some things. Probably didn't help he was a bit distracted by some family issues as well.

Chiefs will be right back in the thick of things for years to come though so they will have a few more opportunities to redeem themselves. That put a bad taste in my mouth just typing it but hard to argue with the greatness of Mahomes.
 

Clayton

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Chiefs will be right back in the thick of things for years to come though so they will have a few more opportunities to redeem themselves. That put a bad taste in my mouth just typing it but hard to argue with the greatness of Mahomes.
Chiefs are probably always going to be in the mix with a healthy Mahomes especially now that they've expanded the playoffs. Its just that being in the mix with a QB and winning the Super Bowl are two different things.

Ravens, Browns, Bills and maybe the Chargers should all be pretty scary next year because they have rookie QB contracts to work with and three of those 4 teams were already top teams last year. Chiefs probably shouldn't be the favorite next year because you have all of these top teams who are already working around team friendly contracts. I do suspect two of those four teams will dropoff because there are more questions about their QB sustainability but the ones that don't are going to be hard for the Chiefs to beat unless they absolutely nail this offseason.

Chiefs are probably like the Packers, Saints, and Seahawks have been and yet you see those teams fail every year to teams that just peak and flame out in the NFC (Panthers, Falcons, Eagles, Rams, Niners....Bucs?). Thats a crazy long list of teams that come and go. It'll be curious to see if Mahomes runs into the same hurdles. Or possibly has to deal with the Chiefs flaming out themselves.
 

shopson67

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How have the Rams come and gone? They've been in the playoffs 3 of the 4 years under McVay.
 

Clayton

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How have the Rams come and gone? They've been in the playoffs 3 of the 4 years under McVay.
Maybe thats a bit harsh but they did drop down from a 13 win team to a 9 win team, and then a 10 win team. They probably shouldn't be on the list.
 

shopson67

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Maybe thats a bit harsh but they did drop down from a 13 win team to a 9 win team, and then a 10 win team. They probably shouldn't be on the list.

I would've left it alone had I realized this was on the Chiefs forum lol. I hit the link from the main page...
 

Clayton

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Alright I guess we have some pretty good insight on how Brett Veach views things now.

Chiefs went and traded for Orlando Brown Jr presumably to be the starting Left Tackle. Creed Humphrey will compete for the C position in 2021 and almost undoubtedly be the starter by 2022. Nick Bolton will likely be the third LB starter on the Chiefs and likely replace Anthony Hitchens and his bad contract in 2022.

This is a very different strategy than the 2020 draft with Gay and Niang being upside, raw picks. I think the idea is the same. Niang was probably picked to potentially replace one of the two tackles which seemed a little farfetched at this point last year and now they're both injured FAs. But when you're drafting later then the draft kinda dictates what you do.

Nick Bolton is a 'try hard' and I mean that in the best way but he is a high floor player and not really a high ceiling player. You see his athletic profile and I think it explains a lot of his tape. He is slightly undersized and doesn't have the best agility but he hit holes hard, he hits players hard, he plays low when powering through linemen and squeezing into gaps. He hits high sometimes and against the top tier athletes (Toney actually the only one I saw) it might actually be a liability. Probably has a high football IQ. Not sure how much that matters at this point but he might see the field relatively quickly. Bolton didn't have the best year in 2020 despite the huge tackle total but Mizzou was massively outmatched in the SEC, tbh, and other olines were pretty routinely wiping out the Mizzou dline and they had two pretty big holes in the secondary. Bolton's worst college game was against Georgia and you see what happens when he guesses wrong. Mizzou gave up massive plays. Its not like Notre Dame where JOK could miss a read and things would be okay. Ultimately Bolton's job in the NFL will be to stop the run, attack gaps, and cover TEs. I don't think he has the agility to do anything else. I do think that if you play Dime and have a lot of smaller guys in coverage than its most important for LBs to stop the run so thats going to be where he lives and dies on the team. The rub on Bolton is that he is undersized but he is the same size as Hitchens. You get the impression with Veach is that he actually values his LBs and Safeties more than CBs which seems to be a pretty bold take but it shows up time and time again.

Creed Humphrey honestly just seems like BPA drafting. I don't think the analytics crowd liked either him or Bolton but the 'tape' crowd should love this pick. He basically just flat out won in college. This pick might not show up in 2021 at all but he might be a staple on the team for the next decade.

This is a meat and potatoes kind of draft. The Chiefs got their left tackle and that compromised a lot of things because they're hard to get. Didn't get huge positional value picks in rd2 but they're guys that can keep the offense and defense moving.
 

Clayton

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*Orlando Brown JR OT
2.58 Nick Bolton LB Mizzou
2.63 Creed Humphrey C Oklahoma
4.144 Joshua Kaindoah DE Florida St
5.162 Noah Gray TE Duke
5.181 Cornell Powell WR Clemson
6.226 Trey Smith OG Tennessee

I like to think I follow the draft pretty well and Kaindoah and Gray are new to me. Hidden gems if you will. PFF loves Kaindoah as a project. 5 star. Probably not getting anything out of him in 2021 and with the way the Chiefs seem to be developing edge talent its a crapshoot after that. Gray seems like a decent prospect from a bad team. I think Gray and Powell both seem like special teams and depth signings. Veach is magic but if he gets either one to 'pop' as a starter in the NFL on a Super Bowl contender then that would kinda stun me. Trey Smith could absolutely be a starter, though, but also out of the league in 2 years.

It wouldn't be crazy for the 2022 starting offensive linemen of the Chiefs being: Orlando Brown LT, Joe Thuney LG, Creed Humphrey C, Trey Smith RG, Lucas Niang RT. 2021's oline might just have 3 guys on 'prove it' deals that are out the door next year so the emphasis on oline makes sense. Something tells me Remmers might not have anywhere else to go, though.

Impossible to grade. Just outright impossible because the Chiefs oline is in so much flux. Its was a good LB, CB, and WR draft and they mostly ignored two of those positions so it doesn't make me warm and fuzzy but I do think it gives the Chiefs some added depth moving forward and will likely be seen as a good draft if there is one stud somewhere in that mix.
 
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