2021 NFL Draft Discussion thread

[Mingo]

So 13 guys in NFL history that turned into something special in the NFL. And now sure I would include Dak with that group as he would by far be the last one on that list. He is great don't get me wrong, but not quite HOF like the rest of these guys.

And I would say Lock doesn't have an equal chance of succeeding as that of failing. Very few QB's whether 1st round or not actually make it in the NFL. From the very beginning this is like Vegas that the house always has the best odds. The odds are that any QB that is drafted is more likely to bust than to become a star.

He is an individual you are right, but if we can't look at statistics because every player is an individual player then kind of eliminates all stats at that point.

Well - I only went back to the late 50s - the nfl had 30 plus years in by that time. I believe the draft started in 39. Your arguments lose credibility when they exaggerate.

 

[cdumler7]

I'm saying you evaluate Lock on his performance thus far - not the trending stats - in that case I agree his success if probably less than 50-50.

Fair point. And if that is the case I would say his odds of success are not great. Rarely do you see a guy go from bottom-5 to top-5. You do have exceptions, but those are usually guys that have supreme tools that eventually see the game slow down and allow them to shine. Lock has good not great tools.

 

[Mingo]

Fair point. And if that is the case I would say his odds of success are not great. Rarely do you see a guy go from bottom-5 to top-5. You do have exceptions, but those are usually guys that have supreme tools that eventually see the game slow down and allow them to shine. Lock has good not great tools.

There are a fair amount of mitigating factors in Lock's current record to date. Dropped passes - Pandemic - loss of his top WR - playing with a bunch of rookie WRs and TEs and his own injuries. This is why I think the play this year is to give Lock his long term chance. Another reason Lock may not succeed is because his skills are not ideal for the Shumur offense -and if Shumur doesn't modify his offense for Lock - that will have a bad result.

While I consider his success for this year to be a little less than 50-50 - I still think those are better chances than drafting a 4th choice QB in a draft - that has one sure fire QB pick.

 

[fightinredantz]

Love the debate. I think we can add a few more guys to the debate on slipping through the cracks due to having other guys drafted ahead of them. Off the top of my head Aaron Rogers, and Patrick Mahomes come to mind. I would add Lamar Jackson, but some woudl argue he is more of a running back then a QB.

I think Mingo brings up some great points at the inexperience he had to play with and some of the issue that caused. Lock does deserve his fair share of the blame though too.

 

[cdumler7]

Love the debate. I think we can add a few more guys to the debate on slipping through the cracks due to having other guys drafted ahead of them. Off the top of my head Aaron Rogers, and Patrick Mahomes come to mind. I would add Lamar Jackson, but some woudl argue he is more of a running back then a QB.

I think Mingo brings up some great points at the inexperience he had to play with and some of the issue that caused. Lock does deserve his fair share of the blame though too.

I would say you can look at things two ways. You can give Lock the benefit of the doubt because of all those things that were working against him or you can look at guys like Burrow and Herbert this last year that had a lot of bad around them and even with all that working against them still played at a very high level.

And I would say with those guys like Jackson, Mahomes, and Rodgers they still didn't exactly slip through the crack because they were still viewed as 1st round talents. I mean Mahomes had multiple teams bidding to get up and take him. Jackson was a tough one because not a lot of teams were sure how to exactly use him in the NFL. Rodgers well that is just teams being cute at the QB position.

Lock was in a bad QB class and saw every team pass on him at least once. Heck Broncos passed on him twice before finally taking him.
I think my reasoning behind why I struggle to see Lock succeed is the same issues that I watched clear back from his high school days (yes I've watched some of his high school games) are the same issues I see in his game today. Bad footwork, bad decision making, trying to do too much on any given play leading to negative plays, etc. He has now had 8-years to show growth in those areas and they are still all showing up.
I will say I did have some hope last year because I did think he improved his mechanics when given those last 5-games of the season. This year he reverted back to a lot of his old bad habits.

 

[Mingo]

I agree the debate is uncommonly good for our forum - and I'm glad @SpringStein put me up to it. @cdumler7 is tenacious, but he could be just a wrong with fewer words.

 

[cdumler7]

I agree the debate is uncommonly good for our forum - and I'm glad @SpringStein put me up to it. @cdumler7 is tenacious, but he could be just a wrong with fewer words.

Haha well we all know that me and using a few words is just not my way. If you only knew how much what I type here is my shortened version. When I'm writing, anything short of 5-pages seems very short to me.

 

[PumpFake]

I just started thinking seriously about Kyle Pitts as our potential first round get. Then I see this in print. This could be the spark for the offense as opposed to casting another quarterback line into the water. Talk me off the ledge.

Denver Broncos: 3 players George Paton could trade up for in 2021

The Denver Broncos currently hold the ninth pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, but who are some players the team could target if they were to move up higher?

predominantlyorange.com

 

[cdumler7]

I just started thinking seriously about Kyle Pitts as our potential first round get. Then I see this in print. This could be the spark for the offense as opposed to casting another quarterback line into the water. Talk me off the ledge.

Denver Broncos: 3 players George Paton could trade up for in 2021

The Denver Broncos currently hold the ninth pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, but who are some players the team could target if they were to move up higher?

predominantlyorange.com

If it is a small trade up like our 3rd rounder to go get him then I would be ok with it. I love Pitts and think he is a top-4 player in this draft, but trading up with any more capital than that for a TE is wasting picks in my opinion. Really the only two positions I could be ok with a team moving up in the draft inside the top-10 is pass rusher (could be an interior guy but they have to have truly elite tools) and QB.

Something to keep in mind with a trade up is that I would say 3 of the top-5 QB's in the NFL right now were all involved in a trade up that cost a team either multiple 1st round picks or a bunch of 2nd round picks to make it happen. I would consider the top-5 guys in the NFL right now Brady, Mahomes, Rodgers, Watson, and Allen.

Mahomes the Chiefs traded 2 1st round picks to get up into position.
Watson was the same. I understand his legal issues cloud this a bit but he played like a top-5 QB last year
Allen the Bills traded their 1st round pick and 2 2nd round picks to get into position to draft him.

So trading up for a QB hasn't destroyed a team if you get the right guy.

 

[Draft Crazy]

It was more fun last year debating the WR’s with some confidence we found our QB already. We took a step back there and now have to debate the QB’s this year. But we took a step forward across other areas.
The benefits of having good WR’s is we have good WR’s (we think) the downfall is... we don’t get to debate what WR’s in the draft fit us the best.

 

[cdumler7]

It was more fun last year debating the WR’s with some confidence we found our QB already. We took a step back there and now have to debate the QB’s this year. But we took a step forward across other areas.
The benefits of having good WR’s is we have good WR’s (we think) the downfall is... we don’t get to debate what WR’s in the draft fit us the best.

Haha I'm still a bit salty that the Broncos passed on my guy Lamb. I like Jeudy but that one still hurts a bit.

Although I have heard that Jeudy could be on his way out as the Bengals really liked him a lot last year and could ask for him as part of the trade up. So then maybe that would get us back into the WR discussion later in this draft and maybe leading into next year's draft!

 

[Mingo]

It was more fun last year debating the WR’s with some confidence we found our QB already. We took a step back there and now have to debate the QB’s this year. But we took a step forward across other areas.
The benefits of having good WR’s is we have good WR’s (we think) the downfall is... we don’t get to debate what WR’s in the draft fit us the best.

We don't have to debate QBs this year - it is just the nature of our forum. Next year we will debate QBs again - even if we draft one this year.

If we have good WRs - why do they drop passes?

 

[PumpFake]

We don't have to debate QBs this year - it is just the nature of our forum. Next year we will debate QBs again - even if we draft one this year.

If we have good WRs - why do they drop passes?

I actually think our offense could be pretty stacked. I think their biggest problem last year was the lack of practice. Of course injuries and the virus ground some gears, too. You add in the quarterback-less game and you had no continuity to get anything going.

If they get OTAs and still can’t get it going then heads have to roll somewhere.

 

[CEH]

So actually I have some numbers for you. QB's taken in the 2nd round or later there have been 88 from 2009-2018. Figure that gives us a 10-year window where we have a pretty darn good idea what they are going to be.

You have 2 during that stretch that are top-10 guys with Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott. Then you have Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, and Kirk Cousins in that next tier that are good not great. A few very average at best QB's and then a whole lot of busts.

So that means the odds of Lock becoming a star QB are 2.2%. Let's ignore the fact that both Wilson and Prescott showed very early in their careers that they were great QB's.

He has about a 5.7% chance of becoming at least an average to good starter in the NFL.

If we compare how Lock has looked through his first 18-games of his career compared to QB's during that stretch the odds are definitely not in Lock's favor to become anything.

So this idea of giving him one more year is operating in this idea of him being the exception not the rule and if that is what you are relying on for success in the NFL then good luck.

Now if we look at the opposite side of that
20 picks in the top-10 at QB since 2009 to 2018.

You have super stars in Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton (yes I understand he is not right now but at one point he was a top-3 QB in the NFL), and I would include Matthew Stafford in this group.

So that means 25% chance you find yourself a star QB if you take one in the top-10. Then you got guys like Baker Mayfield, Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz, and I would even include Jared Goff that fall into that good not great category of the NFL.

So 45% chance that you at least get yourself a good QB if you decide to take one in the top-10.

Still not the best of odds but I would bank on the top-10 pick QB like Fields becoming something more than I would Lock.

I would ask of the 88 QBs drafted how many started 16+ games. That would be the pool of QBs to examine success rate. You need to eliminate those that really never had a chance

 

[SpringStein]

If we have good WRs - why do they drop passes?

that perfectly understandable. When you have an inaccurate passer, they are shocked when it actually hits them in stride!

 

[Draft Crazy]

We don't have to debate QBs this year - it is just the nature of our forum. Next year we will debate QBs again - even if we draft one this year.

If we have good WRs - why do they drop passes?

Yeah- Pretty sure you missed my point. Obviously QB's are always going to be discussed when it comes to NFL Draft Topics. My point is we are discussing QB's for Denver this year, we didn't have to do that last year because we were set to give Lock a shot. This year is different....

Tim Patrick didn't drop a single pass last year. Courtland Sutton basically missed the entire season. KJ Hamler missed dang near half the season and Jerry Jeudy will be better this year. Don't think we need to discuss Denver's WR options early in this draft.... But discussing WR's in general sure.... If you go back and re-look over this thread I am slutting about 12 WR's out with the notion that Denver isn't taking any of them.

Have I brought up Dyami Brown and Elijah Moore yet?

 

[Draft Crazy]

 

[Draft Crazy]

 

[Draft Crazy]

 

[Draft Crazy]