2021 NFL Draft Discussion thread

[SpringStein]

My friend, Mingo! By now I thought you would know that if you don’t have a good QB in the NFL, you have no chance. Can Lock become a good NFL QB? I’d give that about a one in four chance from what we have seen so far. So there is a chance! Having a top 10 pick without a lot of major holes to fill, it seems to me that at least looking carefully and taking a risk isn’t the worst decision the team could make. Whether they choose to move up and take a QB, stay where they are and take a QB or BPA, or make a slight trade down, I think an argument could be made for just about any option this year.

Dont be like DC and act all old and grumpy!

 

[Draft Crazy]

Mingo- Be like me!

 

[PumpFake]

My friend, Mingo! By now I thought you would know that if you don’t have a good QB in the NFL, you have no chance. Can Lock become a good NFL QB? I’d give that about a one in four chance from what we have seen so far. So there is a chance! Having a top 10 pick without a lot of major holes to fill, it seems to me that at least looking carefully and taking a risk isn’t the worst decision the team could make. Whether they choose to move up and take a QB, stay where they are and take a QB or BPA, or make a slight trade down, I think an argument could be made for just about any option this year.

Dont be like DC and act all old and grumpy!

We have a great recent history about trading up for quarterbacks! Go for it! .....because all those quarterbacks at the top of the draft have a one in three chance.

 

[PumpFake]

My friend, Mingo! By now I thought you would know that if you don’t have a good QB in the NFL, you have no chance. Can Lock become a good NFL QB? I’d give that about a one in four chance from what we have seen so far. So there is a chance! Having a top 10 pick without a lot of major holes to fill, it seems to me that at least looking carefully and taking a risk isn’t the worst decision the team could make. Whether they choose to move up and take a QB, stay where they are and take a QB or BPA, or make a slight trade down, I think an argument could be made for just about any option this year.

Dont be like DC and act all old and grumpy!

I do like the options! Just crossing my fingers that a homerun is hit ....regardless of which field it’s hit too.

 

[Mingo]

My friend, Mingo! By now I thought you would know that if you don’t have a good QB in the NFL, you have no chance. Can Lock become a good NFL QB? I’d give that about a one in four chance from what we have seen so far. So there is a chance! Having a top 10 pick without a lot of major holes to fill, it seems to me that at least looking carefully and taking a risk isn’t the worst decision the team could make. Whether they choose to move up and take a QB, stay where they are and take a QB or BPA, or make a slight trade down, I think an argument could be made for just about any option this year.

Dont be like DC and act all old and grumpy!

Dear Professor Springstein,

I am not against a new QB for the Denver Broncos. I do think you over value you opinion of Drew Lock's lack of competence and chances for success - when Drew Lock's greatest benefactors happen to be his own teammates - who have a lot more on the line on Lock's success than most fans. Apparently, those players have seen Lock's receivers drop as many catchable balls as I have.

All that, however, is not what prompts my latest posts on the subject of the Bronco's QB and drafting a new QB. If the Broncos front office wanted to change from Drew Lock - they shouldn't be in the position they are in at the moment.

1) Make a decisive decision about Lock and act on it early in the league season. That would be a better use of whatever value Lock has on the league market.
2) Don't sign up all your old veteran players to contract extensions and then saddle them with a new rookie QB.
3) Don't hedge your bets on QBs for your team - it confuses people and divides teammates.
4) At this stage - no one even knows which QB prospect would be available after the top 3 teams draft - why bet on that?
5) It's doubtful that the cost of moving up will be worth the risk of drafting QB leftover from those top 3 choices (two of which I wouldn't trade for draft rights anyway).

I've been around long enough to remember seeing all the adulation for college QBs at this point preceding the draft followed by the mediocrity of their play subsequent to getting drafted to think - perhaps fans are over hoping for success when past results indicate a distinct lack of real life success in betting the bundle on a QB from the college ranks. As a case in point -the top two choices in the 2016 draft - were jettisoned by their drafting teams as not good enough.

 

[PumpFake]

Wha was the name of the last QB we traded up for in the first round?

 

[Mingo]

Wha was the name of the last QB we traded up for in the first round?

Peyton friggin Lynch

 

[PumpFake]

Dear Professor Springstein,

I am not against a new QB for the Denver Broncos. I do think you over value you opinion of Drew Lock's lack of competence and chances for success - when Drew Lock's greatest benefactors happen to be his own teammates - who have a lot more on the line on Lock's success than most fans. Apparently, those players have seen Lock's receivers drop as many catchable balls as I have.

All that, however, is not what prompts my latest posts on the subject of the Bronco's QB and drafting a new QB. If the Broncos front office wanted to change from Drew Lock - they shouldn't be in the position they are in at the moment.

1) Make a decisive decision about Lock and act on it early in the league season. That would be a better use of whatever value Lock has on the league market.
2) Don't sign up all your old veteran players to contract extensions and then saddle them with a new rookie QB.
3) Don't hedge your bets on QBs for your team - it confuses people and divides teammates.
4) At this stage - no one even knows which QB prospect would be available after the top 3 teams draft - why bet on that?
5) It's doubtful that the cost of moving up will be worth the risk of drafting QB leftover from those top 3 choices (two of which I wouldn't trade for draft rights anyway).

I've been around long enough to remember seeing all the adulation for college QBs at this point preceding the draft followed by the mediocrity of their play subsequent to getting drafted to think - perhaps fans are over hoping for success when past results indicate a distinct lack of real life success in betting the bundle on a QB from the college ranks. As a case in point -the top two choices in the 2016 draft - were jettisoned by their drafting teams as not good enough.

Good post, Reverend Mingo. Preach!

If you take an historical look at the Broncos first round picks the good picks are more likely to be an Lb than Qb.

 

[PumpFake]

Peyton friggin Lynch

I knew that, but you see my point. Forgettable. Regrettable.

 

[Draft Crazy]

Wha was the name of the last QB we traded up for in the first round?

I don’t remember him.

 

[Draft Crazy]

I knew that, but you see my point. Forgettable. Regrettable.

So forgettable that Mingo forgot his first name is Paxton.

 

[PumpFake]

So forgettable that Mingo forgot his first name is Paxton.

At this point his name could be Peter. Paul? Mary!

 

[cdumler7]

My friend, Mingo! By now I thought you would know that if you don’t have a good QB in the NFL, you have no chance. Can Lock become a good NFL QB? I’d give that about a one in four chance from what we have seen so far. So there is a chance! Having a top 10 pick without a lot of major holes to fill, it seems to me that at least looking carefully and taking a risk isn’t the worst decision the team could make. Whether they choose to move up and take a QB, stay where they are and take a QB or BPA, or make a slight trade down, I think an argument could be made for just about any option this year.

Dont be like DC and act all old and grumpy!

So actually I have some numbers for you. QB's taken in the 2nd round or later there have been 88 from 2009-2018. Figure that gives us a 10-year window where we have a pretty darn good idea what they are going to be.

You have 2 during that stretch that are top-10 guys with Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott. Then you have Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, and Kirk Cousins in that next tier that are good not great. A few very average at best QB's and then a whole lot of busts.

So that means the odds of Lock becoming a star QB are 2.2%. Let's ignore the fact that both Wilson and Prescott showed very early in their careers that they were great QB's.

He has about a 5.7% chance of becoming at least an average to good starter in the NFL.

If we compare how Lock has looked through his first 18-games of his career compared to QB's during that stretch the odds are definitely not in Lock's favor to become anything.

So this idea of giving him one more year is operating in this idea of him being the exception not the rule and if that is what you are relying on for success in the NFL then good luck.

Now if we look at the opposite side of that
20 picks in the top-10 at QB since 2009 to 2018.

You have super stars in Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton (yes I understand he is not right now but at one point he was a top-3 QB in the NFL), and I would include Matthew Stafford in this group.

So that means 25% chance you find yourself a star QB if you take one in the top-10. Then you got guys like Baker Mayfield, Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz, and I would even include Jared Goff that fall into that good not great category of the NFL.

So 45% chance that you at least get yourself a good QB if you decide to take one in the top-10.

Still not the best of odds but I would bank on the top-10 pick QB like Fields becoming something more than I would Lock.

 

[Mingo]

So actually I have some numbers for you. QB's taken in the 2nd round or later there have been 88 from 2009-2018. Figure that gives us a 10-year window where we have a pretty darn good idea what they are going to be.

You have 2 during that stretch that are top-10 guys with Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott. Then you have Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, and Kirk Cousins in that next tier that are good not great. A few very average at best QB's and then a whole lot of busts.

So that means the odds of Lock becoming a star QB are 2.2%. Let's ignore the fact that both Wilson and Prescott showed very early in their careers that they were great QB's.

He has about a 5.7% chance of becoming at least an average to good starter in the NFL.

If we compare how Lock has looked through his first 18-games of his career compared to QB's during that stretch the odds are definitely not in Lock's favor to become anything.

So this idea of giving him one more year is operating in this idea of him being the exception not the rule and if that is what you are relying on for success in the NFL then good luck.

Now if we look at the opposite side of that
20 picks in the top-10 at QB since 2009 to 2018.

You have super stars in Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton (yes I understand he is not right now but at one point he was a top-3 QB in the NFL), and I would include Matthew Stafford in this group.

So that means 25% chance you find yourself a star QB if you take one in the top-10. Then you got guys like Baker Mayfield, Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz, and I would even include Jared Goff that fall into that good not great category of the NFL.

So 45% chance that you at least get yourself a good QB if you decide to take one in the top-10.

Still not the best of odds but I would bank on the top-10 pick QB like Fields becoming something more than I would Lock.

This is not a proper use of statistics - as stats refer to trends not to individual possibilities.

 

[cdumler7]

This is not a proper use of statistics - as stats refer to trends not to individual possibilities.

Ok but if Lock actually becomes something in the NFL he would have to qualify as the exception not the rule. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but the second he was drafted in the 2nd round it was already showing the odds were stacked against him. QB is a difficult position to figure out in the draft, but for the most part teams don't have guys fall through the cracks very often that turn into stars. You have your Brady's and Wilson's that every once in a while turn into something but that is just a few guys over a 20-year period.

 

[Mingo]

Ok but if Lock actually becomes something in the NFL he would have to qualify as the exception not the rule. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but the second he was drafted in the 2nd round it was already showing the odds were stacked against him. QB is a difficult position to figure out in the draft, but for the most part teams don't have guys fall through the cracks very often that turn into stars. You have your Brady's and Wilson's that every once in a while turn into something but that is just a few guys over a 20-year period.

I would agree with this, but not because of the statistical trend line. Statistically - Lock has an equal chance of succeeding as failing.

Brady - Wilson - Prescott - Unitas - Montana - Brees - Warner - Favre - Theisman - Staubach - Stabler - Starr - maybe Steve Young (#1 supplemental round).

 

[Mingo]

So forgettable that Mingo forgot his first name is Paxton.

I will have to say in fairness to @cdumler7 - I defended Paxton Lynch in arguments with CD - and that is a shame I have just recently gotten over.

 

[cdumler7]

I would agree with this, but not because of the statistical trend line. Statistically - Lock has an equal chance of succeeding as failing.

Brady - Wilson - Prescott - Unitas - Montana - Brees - Warner - Favre - Theisman - Staubach - Stabler - Starr - maybe Steve Young (#1 supplemental round).

So 13 guys in NFL history that turned into something special in the NFL. And now sure I would include Dak with that group as he would by far be the last one on that list. He is great don't get me wrong, but not quite HOF like the rest of these guys.

And I would say Lock doesn't have an equal chance of succeeding as that of failing. Very few QB's whether 1st round or not actually make it in the NFL. From the very beginning this is like Vegas that the house always has the best odds. The odds are that any QB that is drafted is more likely to bust than to become a star.

He is an individual you are right, but if we can't look at statistics because every player is an individual player then kind of eliminates all stats at that point.

 

[cdumler7]

I will have to say in fairness to @cdumler7 - I defended Paxton Lynch in arguments with CD - and that is a shame I have just recently gotten over.

I still owe quite a few people adult beverages for losing bets on whether Lynch would turn into a good/great QB in the NFL.

 

[Mingo]

So 13 guys in NFL history that turned into something special in the NFL. And now sure I would include Dak with that group as he would by far be the last one on that list. He is great don't get me wrong, but not quite HOF like the rest of these guys.

And I would say Lock doesn't have an equal chance of succeeding as that of failing. Very few QB's whether 1st round or not actually make it in the NFL. From the very beginning this is like Vegas that the house always has the best odds. The odds are that any QB that is drafted is more likely to bust than to become a star.

He is an individual you are right, but if we can't look at statistics because every player is an individual player then kind of eliminates all stats at that point.

I'm saying you evaluate Lock on his performance thus far - not the trending stats - in that case I agree his success if probably less than 50-50.