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2019 Reds ZiPS Projections

CB3UK

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I looked over the stuff in there for 2018, and by and large seems like they got it right. Gives me a lot of optimism for their outlook on us this season.

I picked us to win 75 last year, and I think if we didnt have that injury riddled start then that probably happened. Im saying 85 this year as we currently stand, and assuming Senzel is joining us.
 

JohnU

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A couple of things: First, the interleague schedule will be about 60 percent harder this year for everybody in the NL-C, so carve off a few wins across the board. The Reds were .500 against the sloppy-ass AL-C, fwiw. St L still plays KC and the Broo-hoos get the Twinks. Reds still play the Indians. Pit plays the Tigers. You get that drift.

The Cincy pitchers coming into the rotation are more established if they aren't better. That translates to getting through the first inning without throwing 43 pitches and the entire arsenal. The value of this is quite obvious but difficult to quantify.

The offense in CF has been mightily upgraded to remove a dormant bat from the lineup. The tradeoff is a few highlight clips of great catches in CF that are generally -- just outs. The 'runs saved' by Hamilton does not outweigh the 'offense gained' by Puig, Kemp and Winker.

Senzel might be the wild card but I hold off projecting him to make this a winning team. He's not ready for that role.

A bullpen modification in spring training will convince me.

If they do land Realmuto, I can see them challenge.

Yeah 80-84 wins is possible.
 

Hit-n-Run

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More offense from the OF should equal a few more wins. As for the defense.... balls hit over the outfielders head at GABP are generally caught.... more times than not by a fan or an empty seat the second half of the season. Road games could be a different matter.

How many runs you think you can score against the starter of the day is a consideration. But if the Reds SP independently can't keep the team in the game it's a moot point of emphasis.

The 2019 projections give Reds fans a reason to be more optimistic. But I'm not sold on this team meeting expectations. This season can easily take two entirely different paths.

I like the changes in the coaching staff long term and players for this season. But the amount of one year team control acquisitions doesn't paint a Rosy Red picture for 2020. It has a July fire sale feel to it.
 

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JohnU

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.................
I like the changes in the coaching staff long term and players for this season. But the amount of one year team control acquisitions doesn't paint a Rosy Red picture for 2020. It has a July fire sale feel to it.

I wonder if fans are giddy over what the FO is telling them to expect from Puig because anything that sounds like fun has to equal wins, right? End of the day, I think Kemp is more valuable because he's more mature.

But you're right ... this isn't a real fix for the outfield, it's like renting a new Lexus while your Ford is in for repairs. Eventually, you have to make a decision on the Ford.
 

eburg5000

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I'm not sure what to expect in 2019. I think at best high 90's at worst low 70's. Then you have the injury factor which can change everything. I don't know about Senzel I'd like to see him get a full year in AAA, injury free, and he is still very young
 

navamind

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I'm not sure what to expect in 2019. I think at best high 90's at worst low 70's. Then you have the injury factor which can change everything. I don't know about Senzel I'd like to see him get a full year in AAA, injury free, and he is still very young

I don't think he needs a full year in AAA. He more than held his own in AAA last year, hitting .310/.378/.509 in 193 PA. I don't think he has much to prove other than health, but if he continues to hit then I don't see any reason not to bring him up. Steamer and ZiPS both project him to be an above average hitter.
 

JohnU

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I don't think he needs a full year in AAA. He more than held his own in AAA last year, hitting .310/.378/.509 in 193 PA. I don't think he has much to prove other than health, but if he continues to hit then I don't see any reason not to bring him up. Steamer and ZiPS both project him to be an above average hitter.
The Super 2 stuff will keep Senzel in the minors for a few weeks, but the Reds have every intention of calling him and putting him in CF.
 

Redsfan1507

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God, I hate to say it, but saying this pitching staff is improved is relative to how bad it was last year. The rest of the NLC sure didn't get worse, and arguably, neither did the rest of the NL.

They haven't won 70 + games in what, 4- 5 years ? They won 67 games last year...If they improve 10-12 games this year, that would be a major improvement. 20 more wins might not get them to the playoffs, and 20 win improvements are RARE in MLB, folks.

Gray, Wood, Castillo, Roark and DeSclafani aren't going to win 15-17 games each, folks. They will have good years if they win 60 combined, and this bullpen isn't winning another 25-30. 85 wins is no lock to make a one game playoff, but that's a 18 win improvement over last year...I HOPE I'm wrong, but I think that's impossible even if those 5 SP ALL had career years.

I'll take the Reds to win 79 games, and finish 4th in the NLC this year. That's a dozen wins better than last year.
 

JohnU

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God, I hate to say it, but saying this pitching staff is improved is relative to how bad it was last year. The rest of the NLC sure didn't get worse, and arguably, neither did the rest of the NL.

They haven't won 70 + games in what, 4- 5 years ? They won 67 games last year...If they improve 10-12 games this year, that would be a major improvement. 20 more wins might not get them to the playoffs, and 20 win improvements are RARE in MLB, folks.

Gray, Wood, Castillo, Roark and DeSclafani aren't going to win 15-17 games each, folks. They will have good years if they win 60 combined, and this bullpen isn't winning another 25-30. 85 wins is no lock to make a one game playoff, but that's a 18 win improvement over last year...I HOPE I'm wrong, but I think that's impossible even if those 5 SP ALL had career years.

I'll take the Reds to win 79 games, and finish 4th in the NLC this year. That's a dozen wins better than last year.
I think the 79 up to about 83 is what the projections are. What isn't called into question is the plan after that. Finding decent starters as low-hanging fruit was pretty tough. There's a larger FA market next year, which will provide a lot of cutesy writing by the MLB scribes.

To be honest, the trick is simple. You can't go 5-14 against teams in your own division. You can't let Hernan Perez hit .549 against you. You can't lose games over and over again by grooving pitches to Anthony Rizzo. And you can't send this scrap heap of pitchers out there every day like Rainey and Weiss and Shackelford and Adleman and Jackson Stephens.

In a phrase, pretending you have some players on the roster is one thing. Having the gumption to get rid of the ones who aren't is another.

Bryan Price managed like he was pissed at the FO. He was also right about that.
 

eburg5000

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I'm not sure what to expect in 2019. I think at best high 90's at worst low 70's. Then you have the injury factor which can change everything. I don't know about Senzel I'd like to see him get a full year in AAA, injury free, and he is still very young

I didn't mean to say high 90's I meant to say high 80's at best. I am way to negative to think the Reds will be that good. Especially when they are playing in the central division,
 
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JohnU

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I didn't mean to say high 90's I meant to say high 80's at best. I am way to negative to think the Reds will be that good. Especially when they are playing in the central division,
If they hit their projection of 80-81 and play 10 percent overachieving, they can get to 90. That might make a wild card game.

The problem with any of this is the other 14 teams in the league. You can get 15 wins against somebody this year, go 5-14 against them next year.

Hell the Reds won 6 of 7 from the Dodgers, beat the Cubs 4 in a row in a weekend and won the interleague matchups for the first time in a decade.

They don't play the AL-C this year. They play the West. It's a tougher division. Maybe at least this year, Eric Thames won't win the Player of the Month in April.
 

Redsfan1507

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Any team that allows Jon Lester to pitch without attempting to bunt right at him, or running every baserunner that gets to 1b, with him bouncing throws to 1b, or refusing to throw at all....isn't trying to win, and the Reds qualify. Over the last 4 years, Reds 3b coaches have killed more men at home than John Wayne Gacy. Stupid AND talent challenged is a combo lock for losing:crazy:

I'm hoping that Mr. Bell goes into this season tossing out all unwritten etiquette of good manners and just insists on good fundamentals. That would have won half a dozen more games last year by itself.
 
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