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2018 Official Post-Draft Analysis Thread

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Paper Tigers

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Analysis of Own Team:

- For the first time in a few years I started with highly competitive keepers and then got a very valuable pick at No. 4. The cornerstone of my roster are the two bellcow running backs. The idea will be to start them basically every week. At QB, I always prefer dual threat QBs. This year my quarterbacks are boom or bust types. By taking Wimbush in Round 4, I’m hoping to hit on two out of three of Murray, Robinson, and Wimbush. Obviously, wide receivers are my weaknesses. Tried to take a lot of them with the goal of hitting on a few late. My strategy is to take guys who are likely to be number one receivers on teams that will pass a decent amount and score some points (Oregon, Texas A&M and Vandy/Maryland to a lesser extent). Figuring out which WRs to start will be difficult. This is probably my best team going into the season since 2013 when injuries wrecked my squad.

Favorite Picks of Own Team:

- Round 17 – Jared Cornelius – Even though Arkansas is a SEC West team, their schedule is set up for some high scoring games. Its year one under Chad Morris so they likely won’t be efficient but some Arkansas WRs are going to put up numbers. Coming off a serious injury, it might not be Cornelius, but seems like he has the second best chance after Nance. If he is the guy, matchups with teams like Ole Miss and Texas A&M are set up for high scoring games.

- Round 11 – Kalija Lipscomb –Vandy is set up to throw a lot. Last year they tossed it around for almost 3000 yards in 12 games. Lipscomb should be the number 1 guy. I anticipate him being a starter for me for much of the season.

Least Favorite Picks of Own Team

- Round 2 – Shawn Robinson – I am happy to have him but was considering him vs LJ Scott. After seeing the rounds play out, I’m thinking I could have gone LJ Scott in Round 2 and gotten Shawn Robinson in Round 3 and then have three workhorse backs.

- Round 13 – Mike Weber – Not at all my type of pick. Don’t know when I can use him without an injury to Dobbins. Just felt the value was too good and thought he’d be gone.

Favorite of Other Team Picks

- Round 4 – Drain Bammaged – Jaylen Smith – One of my favorite picks of the draft. Missed a few games last season. Per game he put up number comparable to most any other receiver outside of Sills returning this year. Jackson’s scampers won’t be there this year. When watching Louisville, I’ve felt he was on a different level from anyone else they have.

- Round 4 – Waxy Frogs – Juwan Johnson – Just two picks after Smith is another receiver I like. He is set up to have a big year. The one touchdown season last year should be an anomaly. Target for lots of touchdowns this year on an offense that will still produce.

- Round 10 – Smurf Turfers – Greg Bell – Very surprised he made it to this point in the draft. Saw him more as a Round 7 guy. Husker fans have him as the RB most likely to get the majority of carries if anyone does. Schedule minimizes the value of this pick a bit as they play many tough defenses.

- Round 13 – Winsley’s Warriors – Jonathan Nance – Arkansas is going to throw quite a bit and someone is going to have to catch it. Unsure if it will be Nance but if it is, he’s a WR1 or WR2 in a middle round.

- Round 18 – Heisman Hopefuls – Soso Jamabo – Thought about taking him a couple of times. If Bolu went in Round 10, Jamabo should have gone before this point in the draft. Another player negatively impacted by a difficult schedule but there seems to be significant upside with this pick so late.

Honorable Mention: Round 2 – End Zone Divas – LJ Scott; Round 9 – Drunk Jocks – Ryan Finley; Round 12 – Smurf Turfers – JaTarvious Whitlow; Round 14 – Heisman Hopefuls – Alex Delton; Round 16 – End Zone Divas – Bennett Skowronek.


Least Favorite Picks of Other Teams:

- Round 3 – Winsley’s Warriors – Adrian Martinez – I sort of thought I liked this guy but more like in Round 7. With that schedule and the uncertainty of who wins the job, I don’t understand using an earlier 3rd round pick on him. Frost took two years to get going at UCF.

- Round 4 – Winsley’s Warriors – Nick Westbrook – Coming off an injury, Westbrook may have Brandon Dawkins throwing him balls. If Ramsey wins the job, I could see this working out.

- Round 5 – California Raisins – Tre Bryant – Some encouraging news recently on his health status but the best stories I see say he could factor into the Nebraska RB situation. Round 5 is no place for players who might factor into a running back situation. I thought he was a Round 15 guy.

- Round 5 – Orgy of Evil - Trevor Lawrence – Don’t see how he can be worth this pick. Even if he wins the job he won’t run enough and the defense is too stout to play high-scoring games.

- Round 8 – Drunk Jocks – James Williams – I have always been a critic of Wazzou RBs since Leach has been there and I will continue to be. The freshman is getting a lot of positive talk also.

Honorable Mention: Round 1 – Drain Bammaged – Tua Tagovailoa; Round 3 – Heisman Hopefuls – Tay Martin; Round 14 – California Raisins – Noah Fant; Round 14 – Drain Bammaged – Jake Fromm.
 

Paper Tigers

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Analysis of Other Teams:

- Smurf Turfers – Solid at QB with two clear starters and the UCLA starter should come from Thompson-Robinson or Modster. Biggest question mark is at second RB for me. It is possible that Brooks-James is just a rotation guy at Oregon and I would not be surprised if Greg Bell ends up being the second best RB after Hill. Not a big fan of the Round 4 through 6 picks of Brooks-James, Edwards-Helaire, and Hall. Bell, White and Rountree could play a bunch for Turfers. Although I did not think Harmon would go so high, I like the strategy of taking two top receivers who didn’t find the end zone last year. They should score more touchdowns this season.


- Drain Bammaged – Hate the quarterbacks and running backs here but love the wide receivers. Don’t understand the logic in having both Alabama QBs. Very limited upside to some of the other QB picks like Bentley and Fromm. Not sure if I see an RB1 or RB2 on the roster. Williams could work out but Fitzgerald has to run for fewer TDs for that to happen. Reliable option in Benson at that position. Without using a WR in an early round, this is a very well developed receiving group. As noted above, Jaylen Smith might be my favorite pick of the draft. Both Johnson and Arcega-Whiteside have enormous potential for TDs. Guys like Davis and Edwards provide consistency as backups.


- Skeet Shooters –Fitzgerald and Dungey both have injury histories. If they stay healthy, could be the most productive QB tandem in the league. Akers-Laird I like at RB. Strange trio of talented running backs with minimal likelihood of big production this year in Harris, Lingard, White – not sure of the logic there. I like most of the WR picks. Higgins is a bit risky but Sims and Morgan should be reliable if Higgins doesn’t work out. Morgan was very productive last year but probably won’t score another 10 TDs this year. No major holes on this team.


- Asian Alley Cats – Crafty move to take most of the main Wazzou QBs. Leach normally settles on one and they’ll throw and throw. Herbert staying healthy is key here as Ehlinger would be a step down. Good value with a lot of the RB picks. I wasn’t as high on Etienne as Blitzer is. Ricky Person could be interesting steal late. If Butler is the main guy at Syracuse, then there are two top WRs. I don’t see this team as the league favorite as many of Blitzer’s teams have been in the past but I’m guessing a few of the late picks work out well along with waivers.


- Orgy of Evil – Only really like one quarterback here. Perkins as the #2 guy is a risk that could work out with his mobility. Stanley and Costello are nothing more than backups for a spot start. Did the best he could with the late first round pick and turning that into Montgomery and Sanders. That was the best value possible at that stage. Interesting to have two Virginia guys in the starting lineup. Team success may depend upon UVA offense being at least OK.


- Heisman Hopefuls – Definitely a commitment to philosophy here. At QB, a lot of high upside, low floor guys. Who knows what role Hinton will play and I don’t trust Cornelius to start all season. I do like taking Delton and Dawkins late as players with considerable upside. As noted in draft discussion thread, there isn’t really a surefire, 100 percent QB starter on the entire roster. Probably best 1-2 RB combo in the league. That will be the strength of this team. Even the backups are strong. Possibly the least productive WR corps ever put together in Soul 12 history. Every pick is speculative based on situations. I guess a couple may work out. I’d roll the dice on Vasher and Winfree more than Martin and Johnson. I understand the philosophy at QB and WR but I would have added another sure thing here or there at those positions with such a large roster.


- End Zone Divas – The 1-2 combination at QB is a problem for the rest of the league. Neither guy has ever played a full 13 games before but Grier and Tate are two of the top quarterbacks. Jackson is a nice fill-in guy to have at the no.3 spot. Running backs are good enough. I project a good season for Scott and Harris may benefit from less rushing TDs at QB. Martin has huge upside. At WR a lot of picks I like as well. Butler, Davis and Skowronek are all picks I thought were good at the time – I was surprised Davis made it that far. Altogether, waiver wire picks do matter and injuries can hurt but on paper this team appears to be the league favorite.


- Winsley’s Warriors – I like the back-side of this draft more than the front. Rounds 1 through 5 I would have gone other directions with each selection. Haskins and Carr are explainable but Adrian Martinez in 3rd and Ty Chandler in 5th were very early for me. Later on picks like the Florida State QB and Jonathan Nance are selections I like. Richards went later than I thought. Too many risks in the early rounds combined with a weak keeper in Stidham make Winsley a longshot to contend.


- California Raisins – Weak keepers and a late first round pick put Navin in a tough spot. I do like some of the picks in the first 4 rounds. Interesting call on Whaley. Upside on season may be limited by a lack of elite quarterback or running back. Best tight end unit in the league.


- Drunk Jocks – While I like some of the QB picks, there is no elite QB here. Patterson won’t put up great numbers at Michigan. Terrific RB unit. I love the 1-2-3 of Taylor-Homer-Smith. That is the strength of the team while Sermon, Jones, Shaw are one injury away from being stars. Emanuel Hall went a bit early with a new OC but Vaughns was good value. Covey drafted earlier than I thought he would but could see him catching a lot of balls. RBs will be the point getters with some limitations at QB/WR for a middle of the pack finish.


- Waxy Frogs – I think the QBs will be just fine. A fan of each of the top three. Illinois just won’t score enough for Thomas to matter. Strange group of RBs after Dobbins and Larkin. A bunch of guys who are the main RB on poor-to-anemic offenses (Vandy, Rutgers, Indiana, Kansas). Not sure why one team would want four of these guys. I like having one or two of those with upside guys like McClease. The WRs are fun. Dortch may have uncertainty at QB but per game was as good as anyone last year. Handful of WRs with upside later on. I like this team. I don’t see the stars at the level of End Zone Divas, but could contend.


- 2018 Soul 12 Championship Odds


9-2 End Zone Divas

6-1 Asian Alley Cats

8-1 Skeet Shooters

10-1 Waxy Frogs

10-1 Paper Tigers

10-1 Drunk Jocks

12-1 Smurf Turfers

12-1 Heisman Hopefuls

12-1 Orgy of Evil

20-1 California Raisins

25-1 Drain Bammaged

25-1 Winsley’s Warriors
 

osubuckeye89

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I think I botched on QB after my top 2. Waited too long to select a #3/4 option. Basically banking on Pickett to be serviceable and Thomas to run enough with the OC now to put up decent stats there. Kelley (if he starts. Hopefully) in Chad Morris' offense could be a wildcard.

Figure one or two of the main RBs on perceived "poor offenses" is due to put up decent numbers. They all probably can do justice, Just gonna be about mixing and matching depending on what defense the group is facing on a given week.

Think I got good value with most of my WRs. Theres no one that sticks out as a sure fire stud (maybe dortch) at the moment but pretty confident most will likely produce at a good enough level.

Overall not the sexiest bunch, but this can be a very good team if I play matchups right. Overall I like my chances more than last year
 
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The Q

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I'll add more later but I will start with this:

1) Minus points for you stevie for not even mentioning how Hilinski avoiding the punishent of being my starting QB changed the entire draft.

2) I have the Maryland QB on lockdown. So your comment, while good clickbait, is false.

3) I probably should've gone with my gut and gone with Juwan Johnson over Benjamin in the 4th. Sounds like he had a good shot of getting back to me.

4) But....I feel that my top 5 RBs are clearly better than anyone elses. And I'm surprised that Stevie himself didn't take Brown.
 

Draft Crazy

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Good rundown Stevie. Fair assessment.

I too thought End Zone Divas on paper may be the toughest team right now. That can change rather quickly, but of course speaking on paper at this particular time.

Few draft comments.

1. StevieB really hit up the former Asian Alley Cats this year (6)
Trayveon Williams
Jhamon Ausbon
Dillon Mitchell
Matt Colburn
Austin Seibert
McLane Carter

2. Did Q realize there were more than 5 teams to pick from this year?

3. JonBlaze had a nice rebound year on amount of time it took him to pick. Probably helped he was at the end this year, but kudos to JB for stepping up.

4. Was happy to see TonyStavoli have a nice draft after a few rough years recently.

I may add more later but just got to work.
 

The Q

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Hilinksi.... :(
 

The Q

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One thing I noticed is a lot of teams drafted differently this year.

It definitely made the draft less predictable.
 

Draft Crazy

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One thing I noticed is a lot of teams drafted differently this year.

It definitely made the draft less predictable.

Tony hitting on value you mean?

I nailed about 8 of your picks this year. ;)
 

The Q

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Draft Crazy

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I probably like the James Williams pick more than most. He is a great receiver and I feel with the WR position being a mystery in Washington State he could be a guy who gets a lot of touchdowns as a receiver out of the backfield this year. Last year he caught a lot of passes but not a lot of yards.
 

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Some picks that I liked that stick out to me.


Jaylen Smith- Was thinking he might fall to me right before my next pick.

Davontavean Martin- I think a lot of people could go the opposite way with this pick, but watching him late last year gave me that same vibe that I had while drafting other successful WR’s in James Washington, Shelton Gibson, Leonte Carroo, Kenny Lawler, Bralon Addison. I had him pegged in this field.

Hakeem Butler- Just good quality pick there, not fancy. I don’t see why he couldn’t produce close to what Allen Lazard did and he has some other nice WR’s around him to take some attention away.

Jakobi Meyers- All the spotlight is on Kelvin Harmon, but late in the season Meyers had a few games where he produced better than Harmon. The guy has a lot of upside. I’m not sure if this will be the “BIG” year for him but with a fairly easy schedule, a nice QB and a solid WR on the other side of him he should be pretty good on most weeks. A former QB is still learning the position of WR and the future looks bright for him.


Darrin Hall- A guy I had his FR year and really felt like he got an opportunity then and let it slide away. DIdn’t play much the following year than last year he took the step ahead Ollison the step behind. Finished strong. A bit inconsistent and struggled against good run D’s but a full offseason and now he knows the job is his. I was set to take Hall right before he went.


Ryan Finley- See Meyers.


Dillon Mitchell- Perhaps the guy I didn’t “re-draft” that I wanted to the most. He was solid when Herbert was in the lineup. Durability is my concern here. He got hurt in HS, and early on at Oregon and then again last year in the middle of the year for me. Inconsistent with backup QB’s in but really looked primed to break out in a consistent fashion when Herbert came back. Guy I really personally like. He just didn’t really fit into a need for me at his value standpoint when the draft was happening for me.

J.D. Spielman- If Stanley Morgan misses more time with injuries. WATCH OUT! Spielman is fun to watch. Nobody does more with the ball in their hands than Spielman. Just not sure how many touches he will get.


Jonathan Nance- See Hakeem Butler, Just pure quality. Not fancy.

Juwan Johnson- Had him last year and felt I was probably a year too early. Keep hearing how he is about to bust out but it hasn't happened. As the clear #1 with a solid QB i think this year is really the year.


Alex Delton- Obviously a risk with a good QB competing with him, but he is everything Sndyer wants in that offense, and he can put up some big running numbers. Passing wise he won’t give much, but for fantasy purposes if he does win that job like I think he will then he will be a good play.


Bennett Skowronek- See Butler/Nance

Damon Hazelton- Wasn’t much of a thought of mine but then after I thought about this pick I really liked it. Not 100% sure he is the #1 or even if he is that Va Tech won’t spread it out more this year to a group of WR’s but good shot late.

Kenny Pickett- Watching him late in the year, he was a guy I really wanted to consider in this years draft. I had my mind set on Starkel right before Pickett went ahead of that pick, but had he been available a round later I probably would have doubled up on QB picks there. I think he could be a pretty good one. Still need to see more of him.


Rafael Araujo-Lopes- Wish I had thought of this guy. I will admit he was never really on my radar. Sneaky late pick as I really like his QB and development late in the year.


Jackson Anthrop- He was the #1 player on my board for a few rounds before he was selected. Boring sort of pick, but quality. He really fell off the face of the earth late last year after starting off so well so that was a concern of mine. Not knowing if I believed in him as a true #1 WR in the Purdue O had me passing over him late for players with perhaps more upside.





There are others but I had to really narrow it down.
 

Paper Tigers

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I'll add more later but I will start with this:

1) Minus points for you stevie for not even mentioning how Hilinski avoiding the punishent of being my starting QB changed the entire draft.

2) I have the Maryland QB on lockdown. So your comment, while good clickbait, is false.

3) I probably should've gone with my gut and gone with Juwan Johnson over Benjamin in the 4th. Sounds like he had a good shot of getting back to me.

4) But....I feel that my top 5 RBs are clearly better than anyone elses. And I'm surprised that Stevie himself didn't take Brown.


1) Because I am not a psychopath

2) They will both play. You will have nothing.

3) Yes.

4) Why would I take Brown? The Duke RB has not been a good play in the 15 years the league has been in existance. Cutcliffe will probably find some 6'6 backup QB to go in the wildcat inside the 5 yard line.
 

Paper Tigers

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I nailed about 8 of your picks this year. ;)[/QUOTE]
I think I botched on QB after my top 2. Waited too long to select a #3/4 option. Basically banking on Pickett to be serviceable and Thomas to run enough with the OC now to put up decent stats there. Kelley (if he starts. Hopefully) in Chad Morris' offense could be a wildcard.

Figure one or two of the main RBs on perceived "poor offenses" is due to put up decent numbers. They all probably can do justice, Just gonna be about mixing and matching depending on what defense the group is facing on a given week.

Think I got good value with most of my WRs. Theres no one that sticks out as a sure fire stud (maybe dortch) at the moment but pretty confident most will likely produce at a good enough level.

Overall not the sexiest bunch, but this can be a very good team if I play matchups right. Overall I like my chances more than last year

I will challenge the word perceived here. Kansas and Rutgers are awful on offense. Vandy and Indiana are limited in their rush offenses. Ain't 2014 anymore.
 

osubuckeye89

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I nailed about 8 of your picks this year. ;)


I will challenge the word perceived here. Kansas and Rutgers are awful on offense. Vandy and Indiana are limited in their rush offenses. Ain't 2014 anymore.[/QUOTE]

Oh i'm not expecting any of them to be world beaters, nor any of them to be every week starters, but they can be serviceable in certain situations. As long as Dobbins or Larkin dont suffer any long term injuries I'm comfortable with the RB situation.
 

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Smurf Turfers – Solid at QB with two clear starters and the UCLA starter should come from Thompson-Robinson or Modster. Biggest question mark is at second RB for me. It is possible that Brooks-James is just a rotation guy at Oregon and I would not be surprised if Greg Bell ends up being the second best RB after Hill. Not a big fan of the Round 4 through 6 picks of Brooks-James, Edwards-Helaire, and Hall. Bell, White and Rountree could play a bunch for Turfers. Although I did not think Harmon would go so high, I like the strategy of taking two top receivers who didn’t find the end zone last year. They should score more touchdowns this season.

Very fair analysis here, and I agree. I felt good having Lock at QB as my keeper, so I went with Pass early for upside, a couple safe picks, and then I tried to corner the market on UCLA's starter (hoping for T-R for future value obviously).

RB I went heavy on upside, clearly. Brooks-James and Edwards-Helaire could be really good players for where I got them or guys that get 5 touches a game. They're both talented and on teams where RBs have thrived, so I'm hopeful that they boom, but obviously a risk. I followed those up with Bell and Hall just so I had a couple guys that should get a heavy workload in case I get nothing from the 2 upside guys.

I had a strategy with WR where I wanted two safe bets (Harmon and Jennings) even if it meant passing up on upside to take them. Last year I chased upside a bit more and struck out. My most consistent WRs were waiver wire guys. After that I chased the upside, outside of a couple picks later on.
 

Draft Crazy

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In fairness to Navin's pick on Tre Bryant which was very risky with the knee issues, apparently he is looking good in camp thus far. It's still early and I would expect them to move at a slow pace with him to start the season, but it's better then bad news.
 

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Analysis of Other Teams:
- Skeet Shooters –Fitzgerald and Dungey both have injury histories. If they stay healthy, could be the most productive QB tandem in the league. Akers-Laird I like at RB. Strange trio of talented running backs with minimal likelihood of big production this year in Harris, Lingard, White – not sure of the logic there. I like most of the WR picks. Higgins is a bit risky but Sims and Morgan should be reliable if Higgins doesn’t work out. Morgan was very productive last year but probably won’t score another 10 TDs this year. No major holes on this team.

My favorite part of the draft...the Stevie summary after! Nothing to really argue with about my team. Picking 12th you're not gonna get an elite QB so tried to make the best of the situation. I was pretty stunned/bummed when Omar (I think) took my Syracuse handcuff. That's on me though, waited too long to try and pass him through till even later. Hope it doesn't burn me.

I am a sucker for 5 star RBs as I think they can always produce with little experience necessary. Out of those 3, I am realistically hoping one pans out and is keeper worthy moving forward. Still have Akers but you never know. Harris should be a monster right now, but I get why he's not.

Definitely regretting passing on Jaylen Smith when I took my WR pair on the turn. Feel like he owes me for getting hurt last year. All my WRs owe me actually...it looked so good on paper and turned to shit almost overnight. Even my late flier on Demetris Robertson is primarily based on me feeling I need to get some ROI on these previous bust picks, lol.
 

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Good rundown Stevie. Fair assessment.

I too thought End Zone Divas on paper may be the toughest team right now. That can change rather quickly, but of course speaking on paper at this particular time.

Few draft comments.

1. StevieB really hit up the former Asian Alley Cats this year (6)
Trayveon Williams
Jhamon Ausbon
Dillon Mitchell
Matt Colburn
Austin Seibert
McLane Carter

2. Did Q realize there were more than 5 teams to pick from this year?

3. JonBlaze had a nice rebound year on amount of time it took him to pick. Probably helped he was at the end this year, but kudos to JB for stepping up.

4. Was happy to see TonyStavoli have a nice draft after a few rough years recently.

I may add more later but just got to work.

Easier at the bookends for sure! Pick #1 next year please!
 
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