• Have something to say? Register Now! and be posting in minutes!

2018 LAL 1st round pick watch

Sparhawk

SportsHoopla Ombudsman
19,682
11,598
1,033
Joined
Jul 29, 2016
Location
Dark Side of the Moon
Hoopla Cash
$ 6,357.27
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
As of today, November 2nd.

Sixers get the pick :
1st pick = 1.9%
9th pick = 78.5%
10th pick = 14.2%
11th pick = 0.5%

Pick goes to Boston = 4.9% (2nd and 3rd pick chances combined)
 

mannyz

The Real Batman
1,832
573
113
Joined
Aug 25, 2014
Location
Lake Mary Fl
Hoopla Cash
$ 1,000.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
As of today, November 2nd.

Sixers get the pick :
1st pick = 1.9%
9th pick = 78.5%
10th pick = 14.2%
11th pick = 0.5%

Pick goes to Boston = 4.9% (2nd and 3rd pick chances combined)
I think Fultz is going to be fine. Isn't the pick protected at # 1 and then from 6 on? I am not sure we will need another rookie next year, it may be good to trade the pick for a couple of 1st down the road. Also, do we own Sacramento's pick this year? I forget which picks we currently own.
 

Sparhawk

SportsHoopla Ombudsman
19,682
11,598
1,033
Joined
Jul 29, 2016
Location
Dark Side of the Moon
Hoopla Cash
$ 6,357.27
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
I think Fultz is going to be fine. Isn't the pick protected at # 1 and then from 6 on? I am not sure we will need another rookie next year, it may be good to trade the pick for a couple of 1st down the road. Also, do we own Sacramento's pick this year? I forget which picks we currently own.

Correct, LAL pick is protected #1 and #6-down. BOS only gets the pick at #2-5.
If we get the 2018 LAL pick, then BOS gets SAC 2019 1st rd pick (#1 protected).
If BOS gets the 2018 LAL pick, then we retain the SAC 2019 pick.

It's not about getting another rookie.
It's also about depriving BOS of assets while acquiring our own.
If we wind up with #6 (LAL) and #16 (PHI) in 2018, we might have enough to trade up into that top 5.

On a separate note, the LAL loss last night dropped them into a 4 way tie for 5th worst record.
If the Lakers wind up in the #6 spot, then :
#1 pick = 5.5%
#6 pick = 37.2%
#7 pick = 37%
#8 pick = 6.4%
#9 pick = 0.2%

BOS gets the pick at 2 or 3 = 13.6%
 

mannyz

The Real Batman
1,832
573
113
Joined
Aug 25, 2014
Location
Lake Mary Fl
Hoopla Cash
$ 1,000.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
Correct, LAL pick is protected #1 and #6-down. BOS only gets the pick at #2-5.
If we get the 2018 LAL pick, then BOS gets SAC 2019 1st rd pick (#1 protected).
If BOS gets the 2018 LAL pick, then we retain the SAC 2019 pick.

It's not about getting another rookie.
It's also about depriving BOS of assets while acquiring our own.
If we wind up with #6 (LAL) and #16 (PHI) in 2018, we might have enough to trade up into that top 5.

On a separate note, the LAL loss last night dropped them into a 4 way tie for 5th worst record.
If the Lakers wind up in the #6 spot, then :
#1 pick = 5.5%
#6 pick = 37.2%
#7 pick = 37%
#8 pick = 6.4%
#9 pick = 0.2%

BOS gets the pick at 2 or 3 = 13.6%
Got it. I also read that Boston is waiting for the 6ers to cut Jah so they can sign him. i am not cool with this. He may not fit in here, but, he is an 18/10 player and I would rather they send him somewhere than let the C's gethim for nothing.
 

Sparhawk

SportsHoopla Ombudsman
19,682
11,598
1,033
Joined
Jul 29, 2016
Location
Dark Side of the Moon
Hoopla Cash
$ 6,357.27
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
Got it. I also read that Boston is waiting for the 6ers to cut Jah so they can sign him. i am not cool with this. He may not fit in here, but, he is an 18/10 player and I would rather they send him somewhere than let the C's gethim for nothing.

A player can score all the points and collect all the rebounds they want, but at the end of the game, if they are a net negative value (plus/minus), then all those numbers mean nothing.

Player A : 48 minutes, 60 points, 30 rebounds, 10 assists, 5 blocks, 5 steals, -2
Player B : 48 minutes, 0 points, 0 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 blocks, 0 steals, +2

One of those players had great fantasy stats.
But, only one of those players walked away from that game as a winner.
Plus/minus is a kind of arbitrary stat (reliant on the other 4 players around you), but you can make an argument for any 'counting' statistic.

If BOS has that much interest, then surely he has trade value to another team, even if it was for a late 2nd round pick. That being said, PHI doesn't have to cut him if they know he is going to BOS.
 

TheSnowdog

Well-Known Member
2,444
838
113
Joined
Jun 29, 2010
Location
The Courts of Chaos
Hoopla Cash
$ 1,000.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
A player can score all the points and collect all the rebounds they want, but at the end of the game, if they are a net negative value (plus/minus), then all those numbers mean nothing.

Player A : 48 minutes, 60 points, 30 rebounds, 10 assists, 5 blocks, 5 steals, -2
Player B : 48 minutes, 0 points, 0 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 blocks, 0 steals, +2

One of those players had great fantasy stats.
But, only one of those players walked away from that game as a winner.
Plus/minus is a kind of arbitrary stat (reliant on the other 4 players around you), but you can make an argument for any 'counting' statistic.

If BOS has that much interest, then surely he has trade value to another team, even if it was for a late 2nd round pick. That being said, PHI doesn't have to cut him if they know he is going to BOS.

I get what you are saying but I'm choosing Player A to be on my team every day of the week and twice on Sundays

I'll take my chances with the -2 and see if I can make up for that -2 elsewhere on the team

I do think +/- is something to look at and your example was an exagerated example it seems like

The current Sixers are giving up 108.4 pts/game
That is simply unsustainable

In the game tonight though if you look at +/- the starters all were in the plus (only - players were Bayless and TLC) which is great but it doesn't tell the whole story

I still think Okafor can be a good productive player in this league - even on the Sixers
But I know the writing has been on the wall for some time
sure he is a defensive liability but looking at the current Sixers team they all seem to be a defensive liabilty
The whole team has to shoulder the blame for giving up 108.4 pts/game

I hate the idea of the Sixers just releasing Okafor. They should wait it out and hopefully a team will get desperate at the trade deadline
 

Sparhawk

SportsHoopla Ombudsman
19,682
11,598
1,033
Joined
Jul 29, 2016
Location
Dark Side of the Moon
Hoopla Cash
$ 6,357.27
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
LAL are 6-8 going into Wednesday nights game vs PHI.
Their next 5 games are :
PHI
PHX
DEN
CHI
at SAC

Probably go 3-2 over that stretch, though 4-1 is possible.
Let's be optimistic and say they are 10-9.

Next 18 games :
at LAC
GS
at DEN
HOU
at PHI
at CHA
at NYK
at CLE
GS
at HOU
at GS
POR
MIN
MEM
LAC
at HOU
at MIN
OKC

Can they win 5 of those games? Maybe one game on that east coast trip?
If they go 5-13, then they will be 15-22 with nearly half the season gone.

I think it's a safe bet that ATL, DAL, CHI, SAC, and PHX will be bottom 5.
LAC, IND, CHA, and UTA should eventually start to win more games than LAL.
Brooklyn is a wild card, though they have no reason to tank, same as LAL.

By the new year, the LAL pick should be settled somewhere between 6-10.
I predict #7 or #8.
 

knowyourenemy

Well-Known Member
5,985
1,348
173
Joined
Aug 1, 2016
Hoopla Cash
$ 200.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
LAL are 6-8 going into Wednesday nights game vs PHI.
Their next 5 games are :
PHI
PHX
DEN
CHI
at SAC

Probably go 3-2 over that stretch, though 4-1 is possible.
Let's be optimistic and say they are 10-9.

Next 18 games :
at LAC
GS
at DEN
HOU
at PHI
at CHA
at NYK
at CLE
GS
at HOU
at GS
POR
MIN
MEM
LAC
at HOU
at MIN
OKC

Can they win 5 of those games? Maybe one game on that east coast trip?
If they go 5-13, then they will be 15-22 with nearly half the season gone.

I think it's a safe bet that ATL, DAL, CHI, SAC, and PHX will be bottom 5.
LAC, IND, CHA, and UTA should eventually start to win more games than LAL.
Brooklyn is a wild card, though they have no reason to tank, same as LAL.

By the new year, the LAL pick should be settled somewhere between 6-10.
I predict #7 or #8.

I'd be happy with that. It's a different draft, but the following players were available at #7 in the last 5 drafts:

2017: Markkanen, Ntilikina, DSJ, Monk, Collins, Kennard, Mitchell, Adebayo, Giles
2016: Murray, Chriss, Maker, Poeltl, Valentine, Hernangomez
2015: Mudiay, Stanley Johnson, Kaminsky, Winslow, Turner, Booker, Lyles, Oubre, Rozier
2014: Randle, Elfird Payton, Saric, Warren, Lavine, Nurkic, Harris
2013: KCP, McCollum, MCW, Steven Adams, Olynyk, Giannis, Schroder

Not all of those guys are great but some could be pretty valuable role players on this team and some of them are stars or on their way.
 

knowyourenemy

Well-Known Member
5,985
1,348
173
Joined
Aug 1, 2016
Hoopla Cash
$ 200.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
Got it. I also read that Boston is waiting for the 6ers to cut Jah so they can sign him. i am not cool with this. He may not fit in here, but, he is an 18/10 player and I would rather they send him somewhere than let the C's gethim for nothing.

A player can score all the points and collect all the rebounds they want, but at the end of the game, if they are a net negative value (plus/minus), then all those numbers mean nothing.

Player A : 48 minutes, 60 points, 30 rebounds, 10 assists, 5 blocks, 5 steals, -2
Player B : 48 minutes, 0 points, 0 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 blocks, 0 steals, +2

One of those players had great fantasy stats.
But, only one of those players walked away from that game as a winner.
Plus/minus is a kind of arbitrary stat (reliant on the other 4 players around you), but you can make an argument for any 'counting' statistic.

If BOS has that much interest, then surely he has trade value to another team, even if it was for a late 2nd round pick. That being said, PHI doesn't have to cut him if they know he is going to BOS.

Why would Jah want to go to Boston? The only benefit is that he'd get to beat up more trash Celtics fans.
 

Sparhawk

SportsHoopla Ombudsman
19,682
11,598
1,033
Joined
Jul 29, 2016
Location
Dark Side of the Moon
Hoopla Cash
$ 6,357.27
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
*Update*
As of today, LAL have the 7th worst record at 8-15.

I was way too optimistic in giving them 9/10 wins as they start the toughest part of their schedule.

SAC (7-16), PHX (8-16), and BRK (8-14) are all right there, but MEM (7-15) is a surprise guest as they deal with injuries, not to mention the Blake-less LAC (8-14). CHI/ATL/DAL are all under 6 wins.
 

Taddy Mason

Well-Known Member
15,495
2,926
293
Joined
Jul 25, 2016
Hoopla Cash
$ 24,579.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
Mikal having himself a game tonight.
 

Sparhawk

SportsHoopla Ombudsman
19,682
11,598
1,033
Joined
Jul 29, 2016
Location
Dark Side of the Moon
Hoopla Cash
$ 6,357.27
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
Jebus, 15 wins for the Lakers might take another month.

Lakers currently hold the 2nd worst record in the NBA.
I think we might have to hope for a 1/4 or 1/5 chance at the #1 pick....
 

Sparhawk

SportsHoopla Ombudsman
19,682
11,598
1,033
Joined
Jul 29, 2016
Location
Dark Side of the Moon
Hoopla Cash
$ 6,357.27
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
Lakers went 3-15 in that 18 game stretch, but wins against ATL and SAC have 'vaulted' them into the 5th worst record. Hopefully they can settle nicely into that 6 or 7 seed.
 

Taddy Mason

Well-Known Member
15,495
2,926
293
Joined
Jul 25, 2016
Hoopla Cash
$ 24,579.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
Lakers went 3-15 in that 18 game stretch, but wins against ATL and SAC have 'vaulted' them into the 5th worst record. Hopefully they can settle nicely into that 6 or 7 seed.
I'd rather it be number 1-5 or nothing. Can't imagine the Kings pick not being 1-5 next year.
 

Sparhawk

SportsHoopla Ombudsman
19,682
11,598
1,033
Joined
Jul 29, 2016
Location
Dark Side of the Moon
Hoopla Cash
$ 6,357.27
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
I'd rather it be number 1-5 or nothing. Can't imagine the Kings pick not being 1-5 next year.

Understood.

Also bear in mind that lottery reform starts next year, which could work either way.
If SAC finishes near the bottom, our odds are weakened.
If SAC finishes say, 6-10, our odds improve.

I'd rather just get the pick this year and hope for #1 next year.
 

Sparhawk

SportsHoopla Ombudsman
19,682
11,598
1,033
Joined
Jul 29, 2016
Location
Dark Side of the Moon
Hoopla Cash
$ 6,357.27
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
Lakers are 23-34 and 10th worst in the NBA.
Remains to be see how the loss of Nance/Clarkson and acquisition of IT will affect the team.

Regardless, the tank is real for the bottom teams.
9th worst = New York 23-36; having just lost the Zinger, there's no way they don't go full tank
8th worst = Chicago 20-37; having traded Mirotic, they really have no shot at the playoffs and shouldn't win too many games
7th worst = Brooklyn 19-40; no incentive to tank, just a bad team; hard to see them overtaking LA
Bottom 6 teams have 18 wins; can't see them making up 5+ games on LA

Charlotte, Detroit, Utah, and the LAC are just ahead of LA, and all of them appear to be fighting for the playoffs.

I think we're looking at the #10 pick, which could be in the range of Mikal Bridges, Miles Bridges, or a Kevin Knox type of player, 3&D wing.
 

Sparhawk

SportsHoopla Ombudsman
19,682
11,598
1,033
Joined
Jul 29, 2016
Location
Dark Side of the Moon
Hoopla Cash
$ 6,357.27
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
Lakers are surging.

Now looking like the #12 pick, but there is a nice separation between the next team, so hopefully it does not drop even further.

Not ideal, but at this point, it's time to bring closure to the MWC deal....
 

Sparhawk

SportsHoopla Ombudsman
19,682
11,598
1,033
Joined
Jul 29, 2016
Location
Dark Side of the Moon
Hoopla Cash
$ 6,357.27
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
Lakers are 33-41 and in the 10th spot with 8 games remaining.
CHA is 34-42 with 6 games remaining.
DET is 34-40 with 8 games remaining.

LAL plays MIL, SAC, @UTA, SAS, MIN, UTA, HOU, @LAC
CHA plays @WAS, PHI, @CHI, @ORL, IND, @IND
DET plays WAS, @NYK, @BRK, PHI, DAL, @MEM, TOR, @CHI

It's difficult to know which playoff teams might start resting starters, but it sure looks like DET should win a few more games. Can CHA stay ahead of LAL? I'm guessing no.
 

Sparhawk

SportsHoopla Ombudsman
19,682
11,598
1,033
Joined
Jul 29, 2016
Location
Dark Side of the Moon
Hoopla Cash
$ 6,357.27
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
10th spot was locked up two games ago.
1.1% chance of being #1.
2.9% chance of being #2 or #3 (goes to Celtics).
87% chance of being #10.
8.9% chance of being #11.

0.2% chance of being #12.
<0.01% chance of being #13.
 
Top