2017 NBA Draft odds

[Sparhawk]

According to Tankathon, here are some possibilities.

If we presume that BKN, PHX, LAL, and possibly ORL, are all below the Sixers, then :
Sixers 5th, Kings 6th = 50.6% chance of top 3, 15.1% chance of #1
Sixers 4th, Kings 6th = 59.3% chance of top 3, 18.2% chance of #1
Sixers 4th, Kings 5th = 63.9% chance of top 3, 20.7% chance of #1
Lakers in the 3rd spot = 46.9% chance of top 3, 15.6% chance of #1
Lakers in the 2nd spot = 55.8% chance of top 3, 19.9% chance of #1

If the Lakers remain with the 3rd worst record, practically every combination is just as good or downright better. If the Lakers finish with the 2nd worst record, there is room to improve upon that.

I believe the top 3 percentages should be a bit lower for us, as there is the possibility of the Sixers placing 2nd and the Kings 3rd, which would nullify a swap.

 

[Rey]

If the Sixers plan on using Simmons as a big Point to either drive or dish then it changes the dynamic of what we will be looking at. I'd rather they use him as a Point Forward where we can take advantage of those top PG's coming out this year should we get a top 5 pick. If we don't get the Lakers pick this year it means we have their unprotected pick in 2018 and then the Kings unprotected in 19 aside from our own picks. Assuming Simmons and Embiid are 100% to start next season along with a 2nd year Saric and a developing R Holmes ... the future is VERY bright.

 

[Sparhawk]

If the Sixers plan on using Simmons as a big Point to either drive or dish then it changes the dynamic of what we will be looking at. I'd rather they use him as a Point Forward where we can take advantage of those top PG's coming out this year should we get a top 5 pick. If we don't get the Lakers pick this year it means we have their unprotected pick in 2018 and then the Kings unprotected in 19 aside from our own picks. Assuming Simmons and Embiid are 100% to start next season along with a 2nd year Saric and a developing R Holmes ... the future is VERY bright.

100% agree.

The Lakers are terrible defensively.
The Mozgov and Deng deals are albatrosses of contracts that not only hinders their ability to play decent defense, but hamstrings them financially.

If they retain their pick, would Fultz/Ball/Jackson? put that team over the top?
No way. They will remain a porous defense and without any key FA, I cannot see them winning too many games in the West.

If they lose their pick, they also lose their 19 pick, which means they are donezo, so start throwing out those conspiracy theories on Magic/Silver/NBA wanting to keep LA relevant. Especially if they want a shot at PG.

The Sixers will be fine.
Most likley a top 5 pick this year.

Maybe trade Okafor for a late 1st/early second and go after Josh Hart?

Another thought I had was trading down to pick up additional picks and getting Frank Ntilikina or Lauri Markannen, using Okafor to sweeten the deal.

 

[eaglesnut]

If Silver puts the Lakers in the top 3, I hope he's murdered before he leaves the stage. After what he already did to us? Thin ice...

 

[knowyourenemy]

My biggest concern about that unprotected 2018 pick is that Indiana gets nervous after they get humiliated in the playoffs this season and they trade Paul George to L.A. for whatever they can get. That being said, I think L.A. would have to offer up some decent talent to land George so they shouldn't be too good in 2017-2018 regardless of whether they work out a deal for him or not.

 

[Sparhawk]

It was a good night for the tank

SAC lost, ORL and MIN won.

PHI is now 4th worst and SAC 7th worst in the standings.
PHI is 2W and 3L behind PHX for 3rd worst record.
SAC is 1L behind NO for 6th.
SAC is 1W and 2L behind ORL for 5th.
SAC is 2W and 1L behind PHI for 4th.

As of right now, swap pick percentages yield 52.8% chance at a top 3 pick and 16.2% chance at #1.
If they remain in 2nd place, the Lakers have a 55.8% chance of a top 3 pick and 19.9% chance at #1.
PHI and SAC should continue to lose, so I'll update these numbers as we progress towards the Fall for Ball, Sell for Markelle sweepstakes.

 

[knowyourenemy]

It was a good night for the tank

SAC lost, ORL and MIN won.

PHI is now 4th worst and SAC 7th worst in the standings.
PHI is 2W and 3L behind PHX for 3rd worst record.
SAC is 1L behind NO for 6th.
SAC is 1W and 2L behind ORL for 5th.
SAC is 2W and 1L behind PHI for 4th.

As of right now, swap pick percentages yield 52.8% chance at a top 3 pick and 16.2% chance at #1.
If they remain in 2nd place, the Lakers have a 55.8% chance of a top 3 pick and 19.9% chance at #1.
PHI and SAC should continue to lose, so I'll update these numbers as we progress towards the Fall for Ball, Sell for Markelle sweepstakes.

I don't see any way that the Lakers move out of the 2nd spot. They are tanking harder than I've ever seen anyone tank before.

 

[Taddy Mason]

I don't see any way that the Lakers move out of the 2nd spot. They are tanking harder than I've ever seen anyone tank before.

Nice shot to get closer against the Suns tonight. Of course, last time they met, the Suns beat them by 36 and that when they still had Lou (+1 in 24 minutes that game).

 

[knowyourenemy]

Nice shot to get closer against the Suns tonight. Of course, last time they met, the Suns beat them by 36 and that when they still had Lou (+1 in 24 minutes that game).

Big win for the Lakers. Only 1 game ahead of the Suns now for the 2nd spot.

 

[Sparhawk]

Remaining Games (bolded names are winnable games)

LAL : PHI, @DEN, @HOU, MIL, CLE, LAC, MIN, POR, WAS, @MIN, @LAC, MEM, @SA, SAC, MIN, NO, @GS
PHX : @DAL, POR, SAC, ORL, @DET, @MIA, @BRK, @BOS, @CHA, @ATL, LAC, @POR, HOU, GS, OKC, DAL, @SAC
PHI : @LAC, @LAL, @GS, DAL, BOS, @ORL, @OKC, @CHI, @IND, @BRK, ATL, @CLE, @TOR, BRK, CHI, MIL, IND, @NYK
ORL : @CHA, CLE, @SAC, @GS, @PHX, PHI, CHA, DET, @TOR, OKC, @BOS, @BRK, @CLE, BRK, IND, @CHI, DET
SAC : WAS, DEN, ORL, @PHX, @OKC, @SA, MIL, @GS, @LAC, MEM, UTAH, @NO, @MIN, DAL, @LAL, HOU, PHX, @LAC

The Lakers are good for maybe 3 more wins, which makes it very difficult for PHX to take back 2nd worst record.
Expect PHX to beat SAC twice because that helps SAC.

Optimal scenario is the Sixers overtaking LAL for 2nd worst record.
Really good scenario is Sixers with the 3rd worst record and SAC with the 4th worst record.

 

[knowyourenemy]

Remaining Games (bolded names are winnable games)

LAL : PHI, @DEN, @HOU, MIL, CLE, LAC, MIN, POR, WAS, @MIN, @LAC, MEM, @SA, SAC, MIN, NO, @GS
PHX : @DAL, POR, SAC, ORL, @DET, @MIA, @BRK, @BOS, @CHA, @ATL, LAC, @POR, HOU, GS, OKC, DAL, @SAC
PHI : @LAC, @LAL, @GS, DAL, BOS, @ORL, @OKC, @CHI, @IND, @BRK, ATL, @CLE, @TOR, BRK, CHI, MIL, IND, @NYK
ORL : @CHA, CLE, @SAC, @GS, @PHX, PHI, CHA, DET, @TOR, OKC, @BOS, @BRK, @CLE, BRK, IND, @CHI, DET
SAC : WAS, DEN, ORL, @PHX, @OKC, @SA, MIL, @GS, @LAC, MEM, UTAH, @NO, @MIN, DAL, @LAL, HOU, PHX, @LAC

The Lakers are good for maybe 3 more wins, which makes it very difficult for PHX to take back 2nd worst record.
Expect PHX to beat SAC twice because that helps SAC.

Optimal scenario is the Sixers overtaking LAL for 2nd worst record.
Really good scenario is Sixers with the 3rd worst record and SAC with the 4th worst record.

MIN, NO, and probably DEN and MIL should be considered winnable games for all of these teams. Probably Charlotte too as they're completely in the toilet at this point. LAL plays MIN 3 more times. No way they sweep them, unless the tank is that strong. The problem with Phoenix is that they don't seem to be openly tanking. I guess we'll see how it plays out.

 

[Sparhawk]

MIN, NO, and probably DEN and MIL should be considered winnable games for all of these teams. Probably Charlotte too as they're completely in the toilet at this point. LAL plays MIN 3 more times. No way they sweep them, unless the tank is that strong. The problem with Phoenix is that they don't seem to be openly tanking. I guess we'll see how it plays out.

MIN is 6-4 in their last 10 and have been playing much better.
KAT and Rubio have been playing extremely well.

NO is a mystery. Everything looks good on paper, but maybe they tank in attempt to keep their pick? That game against SAC is looming as such a revenge match, but it's not clear which team needs to lose that game more....

 

[knowyourenemy]

MIN is 6-4 in their last 10 and have been playing much better.
KAT and Rubio have been playing extremely well.

NO is a mystery. Everything looks good on paper, but maybe they tank in attempt to keep their pick? That game against SAC is looming as such a revenge match, but it's not clear which team needs to lose that game more....

Minnesota is playing better -- but they're not such an elite team that I don't consider them beatable. Plus, they may end up with no incentive to win down the stretch -- and so they may tank to some extent themselves.

 

[Sparhawk]

PHX win, PHI loss, SAC loss.
Good night for the Process.

Must lose game vs LAL tonight?

 

[knowyourenemy]

PHX win, PHI loss, SAC loss.
Good night for the Process.

Must lose game vs LAL tonight?

Back-to-back games in LA? Better rest Saric, Covington, and Holmes.

 

[Sparhawk]

Lottery Bucket: Calculating NBA Draft Lottery Odds

All your odds for each pick possibility.
This and Tankathon are probably your best resources for determining picks.

 

[Taddy Mason]

Back-to-back games in LA? Better rest Saric, Covington, and Holmes.

 

[knowyourenemy]

Saric is too good. Super Dario.

 

[Sparhawk]

PHX is shelving Bledsoe for the rest of the season.
ORL stinks.
SAC with two wins in a row, now in a three way tie with NO and NY.

 

[eaglesnut]

I don't see any way that the Lakers move out of the 2nd spot. They are tanking harder than I've ever seen anyone tank before.

All the flack the Sixers got for tanking and the Lakers have been worse offenders. Hopefully their stadium is on a fault line that erupts soon.