2015 International Signings

[Villain]

July 2 is the day when all the Cubans get all the money!

Here's a pretty awesome list of all the internation prospects, the team that is most likely to sign them, and the money they are projected to get: 2015 MLB Draft Scouting Reports

The Dodgers are projected to sign the top three players, along with 4 other players. The projected bonuses plus tax is looking to top $50MM when it's all said and done.

Here are the profiiles of the top three players:

Yadier Alvarez
The Alvarez video is from when I scouted his second appearance in front of scouts back in February, also the last open showcase for Dodgers IF Hector Olivera before he got $62.5 million. Alvarez wasn’t a big name in Cuba and never played in their top pro league. I heard rumors after his first appearance for scouts two weeks prior to my look that he hit 98 mph, but you take that type of buzz with a grain of salt in the international market. He hit 98 mph again in the outing I went to on one scout’s gun, hit 97 mph multiple times on every gun, sitting at 93-96 mph over his two innings. As you can see in the video (from his second inning when I moved down to get a closer look) the slider is plus and the changeup is surprisingly good, flashing 55, and Alvarez used it multiple times in two strike counts and against right-handed hitters. While the command isn’t all the way there yet, he’s only 18 with new velocity that he’s still adjusting to, while the delivery, arm, frame and athleticism are all solid to very good with some flashes of feel to pitch already.

He projects as a starter, but the risk here is due to the uncertainty. Alvarez has been throwing this hard for less than a year, scouts haven't seen him go deep into games or face high end minor league hitters. Sometimes young arms with velo spiking develop injuries or simply can't command it and we haven't seen enough to know if this sort of thing will happen to Alvarez. He checks all the boxes for a pitcher of this age and you’d obviously like to see more than what scouts have seen, but that's the way this market works and Alvarez will get paid even with little track record. It would be an unnecessary risk to expose himself to, and teams would rather handle his throwing program themselves than have an agent do it. It’s too early to really know what he’s capable of, but the raw talent here is comparable to the top teenage arms in the world.

The buzz is Alvarez already has a deal in place for $16 million with the Dodgers and this type of buzz is sometimes wrong, but very often ends up pegging the right team and the right general range for the bonus. The Dodgers' heaviest of hitters, president Andrew Friedman and VP Josh Byrnes were sitting about 20 feet behind me while I shot the video, were the highest-ranking scouts at the event and have already signed the other elite player that was on the field in Olivera. Alvarez projects as a potential frontline starter that would go in the top half of the first round in the domestic draft, but the uncertainty here is much higher than comparably-aged domestic prospects due to the lack of track record. After ten starts in pro ball, Alvarez could be one of the top pitching prospects in the world, or just another teenage pitcher with a talented arm and feel issues to sort out at the lower levels of the minors.

Eddy Martinez
Martinez doesn't have as much experience playing center field as you'd expect for a 65 to 70 runner from Cuba that's played on some solid teams domestically and internationally. He played in the corners in deference to more experienced defenders and also played a good bit of first base in Cuba to save his arm, since he also pitched. Like most Cuban defectors, he's cleaned up his frame a bit since leaving the island and also added more speed and power. Martinez should be able to stick in center, but he just hasn't been seen playing the position in many games recently, though he has enough arm for right field if for some reason he needs to slide to a corner. There's power for 15-18 homers, but it'll likely play lower than that with his more contact-focused approach; most scouts I spoke with hanging a 50 on his bat and a 45 on his game power (12-15 homers), easily projecting him as an everyday player if he sticks in center as expected. It isn't the most electric, toolsy Cuban prospect in recent memory, but it's roughly comparable to Red Sox OF Rusney Castillo, with less raw power. Martinez is a good bit younger than Castillo and will get far less due to some uncertainty about his skills and the limits of the international pools. The Dodgers and Giants have shown the most interest after Martinez's camp decided to wait for the next signing period, though it sounds like the Yankees made an attempt to sign him at the end of the last period.

Lucius Fox
Fox played last season at American Heritage high school in Delray Beach, FL, on the same team as 2015 draft prospect SS Jonathan India. Fox played at the PG National and East Coast Pro showcases last summer to get exposure for the 2015 draft and there were rumbling he may transfer so he could get regular innings in the spring at shortstop as India was more polished at the position. Fox ended up moving back to his native Bahamas last summer and registered to become a July 2nd prospect instead of a draft prospect, a designation that MLB is very wary of allowing as other prospects have tried it in the past in an effort to get more money, but Fox's Bahamian roots convinced MLB to allow him to become and international prospect eligible to sign starting on July 2nd.

Fox was smaller last summer, around 6'1/160 and ran 6.5 or lower in the 60 (at least 70 speed), but his arm was a little shy for shortstop and while he had contact skills, he had little power. Since moving back to the Bahams, Fox gew an inch, added about 15 lbs. or muscle and is still an easy plus runner, but now with more pop and arm strength. The contact skills are still there and scouts would start him at shortstop in pro ball, though some thing his actions aren't quite good enough to stick and think he'll end up in center field. Second base is also possible, but he'll play shortstop for at least a few years in the minors with upside to be an everyday player at any up-the-middle position. Fox likely wouldn't have gotten more than $2-3 million in the draft but projects to get double that on July 2nd, with the Dodgers the most aggressive suitor, but the Giants, Padres and Rangers are all in the final mix as well.

Obviously, the most exciting player is Lucius Fox:

 

[LASports96]

Yep, J2 is going to be so awesome this year. Our farm is going to be absolutely loaded.

I was sorta surprised to hear we're favored on Martinez, I assume it's just because we have the most money likely to blow through. If they get all the top 3 holy shit

 

[Villain]

Yeah, I'd heared the Dodgers connected to a few of those guys, but the McDaniel didn't put a source on why each player is projected to each team.

I have also been hearing for a long time about Vlad Guerrero Jr. going to the Blue Jays (and that they may already have a gentleman's agreement in place), but I'd really like to see the Dodgers snag him. He's only speculated to get about 3.5 million according to the draft board, I don't see why the Dodgers wouldn't try to just play the big bad bully with the big bad wallet.

We'll see. Should be a fun day/week.

 

[Villain]

Lucius Fox is going to the Giants.

So far the Dodgers have signed Yadier Alvarez, Ronny Brito, and Starling Heredia.

 

[duke1861]

I want Martinez, Javier and Guerrero Jr.

 

[Villain]

I want Martinez, Javier and Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerreo Jr. already signed with the Blue Jays, Christopher Martinez signed with Cubs, and Wander Javier signed with the Twins.

 

[duke1861]

Any shot at Eddy Julio Martinez? He is the highest rated international FA.

 

[Villain]

Any shot at Eddy Julio Martinez? He is the highest rated international FA.

Word is he's choosing between the Dodgers and the Cubs and he won't announce his decision until tomorrow.

The Dodgers also signed Oneal Cruz, Christopher Arias, and traded away all of the international slot money for other players:

P Caleb Dirks (ATL)
OF Jordan Paroubeck (ATL)
P Chase DeJogn (TOR)
2B Tim Locastro (TOR)

Amazing moves, if you ask me. Today has been a good day for the Dodgers.

 

[LASports96]

Today has been a great day. Alvarez is the biggest coupe here and has the most potential while being the closest to helping the Major League team and I love him but I think Heredia is my favorite signing, dude also has a lot of upside.

Praying we can grab Martinez too, if so I think it was definitely worth passing on Moncada. It might have been already, just worried about Heredia/Brito becoming players considering they're so far away.

 

[duke1861]

Word is he's choosing between the Dodgers and the Cubs and he won't announce his decision until tomorrow.

The Dodgers also signed Oneal Cruz, Christopher Arias, and traded away all of the international slot money for other players:

P Caleb Dirks (ATL)
OF Jordan Paroubeck (ATL)
P Chase DeJogn (TOR)
2B Tim Locastro (TOR)

Amazing moves, if you ask me. Today has been a good day for the Dodgers.

I agree, great moves. The farm is getting rebuilt. I wish we could have snagged Fox but oh well. Lets get Martinez and then shift our focus to getting the top draft picks signed.

Then, we need to focus on the trade deadline and bring in some talented players without giving up the farm.

 

[Villain]

If the Dodgers don't get Martinez, this has still been an awesome signing period. If they do get him, oh man, it'll be like Christmas in July.

 

[duke1861]

If the Dodgers don't get Martinez, this has still been an awesome signing period. If they do get him, oh man, it'll be like Christmas in July.

I see that Eddy Julio Martinez is still unsigned. I can't find any info on the situation. Anybody heard anything? Villain?

 

[Villain]

This is all I got:

 

[duke1861]

Thanks Villain!

 

[Villain]

Nothing to add on Eddy Julio Martinez. Kinda makes me wonder if he has a handshake with a team that can't sign him until next year? Pure speculation. I have no idea.

Anyways, this is why I'm bumping the thread:

Alvarez, No. 1 int'l prospect, progress

 

[Villain]

Finally, an update on Eddy Julio Martinez!

Reds join Giants, Dodgers, others in mix for top Cuban OF Martinez - CBSSports.com

Some bullet points copypasta'd from the article (Jon Heyman is a great reporter, but a terrible analyst. Huge grain of salt):

*He was previously handled by his trainer but now employs Rick Thurman and Rafael Nieves of Beverly Hills Sports Council, who had top Cuban pitcher Yadier Alvarez sign with the Dodgers

*His signing bonus is expected to top $10 million.

*Besides the Dodgers, Giants and Reds, the Cubs, White Sox, Astros and Rangers were reported to be in the mix

*Martinez's scouting grades on MLB.com actually did compare favorably to another Cuban, infielder Moncada, with Martinez actually scoring higher for running and fielding.

=========​

I wonder if that switch in representation was one of the holdups. Bodes well for the Dodgers, since they were able to successfully hammer out that deal for Yadier Alvarez with the same guys.

 

[OutlawImmortal]

 

[Villain]

MLB Makes Major Change For Cuban Players - BaseballAmerica.com

Today, the commissioner’s office declared that 16-year-old outfielder Jonatan Machado and 17-year-old second baseman Omar Estevez will both be eligible to sign during the current 2015-16 international signing period.

Because the Commissioner’s Office finds that Estevez and Machado have demonstrated compelling justification for their failures to register by the May 15 deadline, they will be deemed eligible to sign as international amateurs beginning October 18, 2015.

Two more names thrown in the mix.

 

[Villain]

Eddy Julio Martinez signed with the Giants for 2 million. That's a lot less than it seemed like he should've gotten as one of the consensus top two talents available. Kinda makes me think that he might've been overrated early on and his recent workouts gave some reasons for concern. Dodgers can one-up a bid for 2 million without blinking. Maybe he has a medical concern or something?

 

[Villain]

Eddy Julio Martinez signed with the Giants for 2 million. That's a lot less than it seemed like he should've gotten as one of the consensus top two talents available. Kinda makes me think that he might've been overrated early on and his recent workouts gave some reasons for concern. Dodgers can one-up a bid for 2 million without blinking. Maybe he has a medical concern or something?

Eddy Julio Martinez Not Signing With Giants; Seeks $3MM Deal