2013: A look ahead

[WizardHawk]

So most of the world has UW in the 7-8 win category in preseason predictions. A few actually have them sliding back to 6 wins. Obviously conference foes see it on the lower side and UW fans see it going 9+.

This is Sark's 5th season and the first year where all of the kids on the field are his. The combination of his over selling the program (what coach doesn't?) and stagnant season records has some fans frustrated and many wondering if Sark has reached his ceiling as a coach. I wouldn't say he is on a hot seat, but another 7 win season would probably bring him under a lot of fire and would seriously land him there next year.

The real question about Sark is how did he coach last year? By all accounts he had his best year yet as a coach. UW managed to beat two top 10 ranked teams despite having the worst injury problems in a long time. They lost 1/3 of their starters over the early part of the season and were forced to play several kids out of position and way too early. Of course they lost some games they shouldn't have and got blown up badly in others, but that staff did a great job of building those out of place kids up and by seasons end many showed promise. His play calling was better as well. Too bad his QB didn't run those plays up to their potential.

Speaking of Price, his play this year is the single biggest question on everyone's mind. Will he be the efficient and mobile QB of his sophomore year, or the pressing and fumbling QB of his junior year? They really have no choice but to roll with him since they are going no huddle hurry up this year and Keith is the only kid who knows the system well enough to go to that next level.

Of course there are other questions. Will the defense take another step forward? Will the offensive line stay healthy and come together? Will the young kids in the receiving corp play up to the level needed to win big games? We won't know for sure until they play the games, but there is solid promise in all of those. The defense was miles ahead of where it was under Holt in Wilcox's first season and the only key piece lost last year was Trufant. Add back the kids who were injured and they have some mad depth. Shaq was a stand out frosh and Timu came alive. I see them really coming together and and maturing this year and they will need it. The offensive line will have 7 kids with substantial starting time on it with the only position without experience will be center and they are moving a kid with experience over there. As for WR's Mickens was playing much better late in the season and they have two stud WR's starting this year as true freshmen who are projected to be all conference.

In coming posts I'll break down my take on the games this season. Feel free to add your views, but trolls need not apply.

 

[mrwallace2ku]

and mobile QB of his sophomore year,

Outside the edge and moving Whiz...this boy is as dangerous as they come, even more so than Mariota @ Oregon. If he learns to tuck the rwak and take a walk, gawd help the PAC D's when it comes to stopping him. All his passing lanes open up with it too when he goes mobile.

 

[WizardHawk]

OOC games

The Huskies have one of the most important games of the year to open the season. Then after a bye they go on the road against a terrible Illinois team and then back home for one of those FCS games no one likes to see.

Boise State @ UW Aug 31st at 7pm pacific
This may be one of the biggest games in the Sarkisian era. Sure, they can survive just fine with a loss since it is the first game of the year, but if UW is to put their stamp on the conference they have to have this game. The Broncos are a quality opponent and they specialize in these early season big games. You won't be able to half ass your way through this and win. It is time to see this team prepare and focus and put it all together for four full quarters.

Most of the offensive changes have been kept under wraps so BSU won't have nearly as much information on what to prepare for against our offense as other teams will. UW needs to take advantage of that as well as the energy of the crowd that will be there to break in that brand new stadium and make that statement for the conference.

I believe they will win this game with or without ASJ and start their season off on a high note.
I see it going 33-17 UW

UW @ Illinois (At Soldier field) Sept 14th at 3pm pacific
On paper this is a 'b' team game for UW, but it may play more like a 'c' game given how many problems the Illini have. Consider this a soft landing for getting their road legs and a chance to tweak things that went wrong in the BSU game.

Sometimes these games have a chance to be a let down, but not likely as a loss, rather a closer than expected game. I don't see them being able to slow down UW, but I expect UW to not play their best either.
Right now I'd guess 24-7 UW

Idaho State @ UW Sept 21st
There isn't much to say about this game. It will be one last chance to tune up the team before conference play opens and should be over before half time. This one has the potential to be one of the higher scoring games in recent years.
Call it 49-3 UW

 

[WizardHawk]

First Third of the Conference Season

Here is where people have questions about this team and where it can go this season. After opening either 3-0 or 2-1 most likely they jump both feet in the fire to three very big games with each growing in intensity and importance.

Arizona @ UW Sept 28th
The cats come into the new stadium to open the conference campaign and it won't take long to see how the team has progressed from last year. Last season the dawgs got curb stomped in the desert by a worse margin than they had against the ducks. Will all the work playing with/against the hurry up pay off with a win at home? You have to like your chances at turning this around, but Arizona is one dangerous team. The problem is the next two games will be crazy and you just can't afford to drop 3 straight. Not sure I'd call this a must win game, but any thoughts of a 9 win season might hinge on this games outcome.

At this time this game is too close to call. I'll call it a toss up and wait to see how they do vs Boise State before I make any type of prediction on this one.

UW @ Stanford Oct 5th
The Cardinal will be looking for a bounce back against UW after losing to them at Century Link field last season. They will have their new QB and should be dialed up from the early OOC games. Road games are tough in this conference and it doesn't get any worse for the Huskies this season.

You would have to give the edge to Stanford in this one. A win here would be a major upset and would turn some heads. Don't bank on it.

Oregon @ UW Oct 12th
Not much need to break this game down. Everyone knows the zeros have won the last 9 meetings and UW's defense hasn't been able to even slow them down over that stretch. There is no doubt that the change over to the no huddle hurry up in this off season was a much to let the defense practice playing at that speed and making fast adjustments/substitutions as it was a new offensive weapon. Can Wilcox really move a defense that was near last in the conference two years ago to a giant killer over this off season? Yes, you do have to have offense and not make stupid mistakes on it, but beating Oregon is more about stopping them than what you do with the ball. Having a sell out crowd behind them will help, but the game may come down to how well the team has responded to their new HC and the changes he has made. Their confidence may also depend on what they did vs Arizona. Of course they are a different offense, but just overcoming their bad play against the hurry up might give them the mental edge they need to play like they are capable.

I will give my prediction on this game the week before it happens. There are just too many variables at this time.

 

[WizardHawk]

Second Third of the Season

After that rough stretch comes a different set of challenges and a bye week. After they play Oregon they go on the road to ASU and after the emotions of the duck game who knows how they will play in that road game. Then they get Cal at home, a bye week, and Colorado also at home. Even if the Dawgs end up losing all 3 of the prior games, this stretch is winnable. I still see them 4-2 going into this stretch and if that happens expectations will be running high and anything short of 2 of this 3 would be really bad. Given the remaining schedule after this, they must have at least 6 wins coming out into the home stretch, better if they had 7.

UW @ ASU Oct 19th
Which ASU will we see? Will UW be up for this game emotionally after playing Oregon the week before? I'm not sure anyone will know the answers until this game week comes. I can say a win here would be about as impressive a win as Sark has had in recent years given how many struggles they have had on the road. Still, don't put your mortgage up for a bet on this one.

Way too early to call this one.

Cal @ UW Oct 26th
New HC and lots of youth all over. Most of the odds makers don't see them going over 3 wins and UW should be heavily favored come game week. Anything can happen, but this is a must win game and there is no reason to believe they won't get it done.

Colorado @ UW Nov 9th
After a much needed bye week the Dawgs again return to their new home to play the hapless buffs. Anything less than a 20 point win would be embarrassing. What more can you say?

 

[WizardHawk]

Home Stretch

So after a couple of the lower teams in the conference UW starts out the last three with a road trip to UCLA. This will be one tough game. Doesn't get a whole lot easier the next week when they travel to Reser to play the beavs. The only thing you can say about the last game is at least they get the cougs at home this year. If they made it this far going 7-2 this stretch should find them more wins. If they are sitting at 5 or 6 wins they will be pressing to find those late season W's they need to reach 8+.

UW @ UCLA Nov 15th at 6pm pacific (ESPN2)
A national night game on the road. Not sure when the last time UW won a game like this, but if they are going to make the steps forward to challenge for the conference these are the types of games they need to find a way to win. If UCLA is as good as they are projected to be this one is hard to pencil in as a win.

UW @ Oregon State Nov 23rd
All UW wants for thanksgiving is some roasted beaver. Problem is they haven't played well there in quite a while. Of course UW didn't play well in many places in the last decade so this would be a good time to swing things around and at least push the beavs below us in the NW. The outcome of this game will depend largely on which Oregon State we see and how both teams are in the injury department. Could go either way.

WSU @ UW Nov 29th
Everyone who has ever followed this series knows you throw the records out the window for these two teams. It comes down to heart over heros and attitude over athleticism. UW shouldn't end up needing this game to be bowl eligible, but if the cougs get on a good run they just might. We know there is always more on the line than bowls or overall records for this game anyway. Still if UW wants to take the next step forward Sark and Co will need to find a way to finish up the season on a high note.

 

[WizardHawk]

Epilogue

While many fans have been frustrated at being stuck at 7 wins in recent years (for good reason), this years schedule isn't exactly a cake walk. While they get Oregon at home, road games against Stanford, UCLA, ASU, and Oregon State are all potential land mines and most wouldn't see them doing any better than 2-2 in those games. That doesn't leave you a lot of room for error if you plan on reaching 9 wins. Sark knows there is pressure to take the next step and one of the good things about him is he puts more of that pressure on himself than the media does. Still, it will take more than a small step for them to reach the win totals that some fans demand. They have more depth now than any time in recent years, but are still playing really young and several key players will be learning on the job.

Price has to be who we expected him to be last year. ASJ needs to come out on fire and determined to make up for his DUI and whatever punishment he ends up with and go forward with everything he has. Kasen needs to make the next step and find ways to get open more even when there is help over the top by the D. Cooper and Callier need to stay healthy and provide other looks for the running game. Mickens needs to take a big step forward and run better routes and make fewer drops. A viable center needs to emerge out of fall camp and that line has to come together and have some solid playing time as a unit.

Shaq was a beast last year and will need to build on that this season. Timu made big strides as well and his leadership will be key for the season. Ducre and Peters will have to step up with some of the young kids and play solid in the back. Maybe most importantly they need to keep healthy on the line and find ways to put pressure on the QB's.

Can they make all of these things happen? We are asking for a lot of things to go right and the odds are some will not pan out as expected. That's the nature of the game. At the same time every team deals with those issues and it doesn't always take perfection to win games.

I see them winning 7-9 games in the regular season with 8 being the most likely. That would be a huge step over last years 7 just due to how much more difficulty there is in this schedule versus that one.

Rise up Husky nation and support your team. They will have the best stadium in the conference and lots of exciting players to follow. Get out and buy up those season tickets so we don't have to see 10k bronco fans or 12k ducks in the new stadium.

This is going to be a fun ride.