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2012-13 Preseason Thread

MHSL82

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It wasn't on TV, but as I hear it, Jefferson had a terrible shooting night, Favors shot well but turned the ball over a lot with few rebounds, and Mo Williams needs some practice at shooting. It's the first game of the preseason so I won't worry too much... yet.

I saw how the Warriors were playing their starters for 30-36 minutes - they are apparently trying to figure out who should be starting and playing together. I, for their sake, hope they're all conditioned for the season already, or else they'd be susceptible to an injury moreso than 20-30 minutes per preseason game. I'm sure I don't have to remind any BYU fans on how bad it is to lose a player in a meaningless play/game.
 

nuraman00

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I think part of the Warriors experimentation is the SF spot, and whether Barnes should start, and how ready he is.
 

nuraman00

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I also don't think conditioning matters as much in preseason games, since the games are usually spaced out decently.
 

Sackataters

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Watching the OKC game and I'm really thinking I'm going to like Marvin Williams. He ads a new dimension and is a huge upgrade over CJ or Howard. Mo gets them moving up the court like a bolt of lightning.
 

MHSL82

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Watching the OKC game and I'm really thinking I'm going to like Marvin Williams. He ads a new dimension and is a huge upgrade over CJ or Howard. Mo gets them moving up the court like a bolt of lightning.

I didn't see the OKC game, but looking at the box score, there were a lot of o-fer's. The one's where I think will and have to come up are Favors and Foye. Kanter has played well; I hope it translates to the regular season. Since I didn't see the game, I'll defer to you on him running the offense, but I'm hoping he starts to get 6-8 assists per game. I went years expecting Stockton to get 10-15 assists and Williams to get 8-12 assists per game. Right now, with our team, I'm hoping for few <5 assist games by our point guards.
 

nuraman00

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I didn't see the OKC game, but looking at the box score, there were a lot of o-fer's. The one's where I think will and have to come up are Favors and Foye. Kanter has played well; I hope it translates to the regular season. Since I didn't see the game, I'll defer to you on him running the offense, but I'm hoping he starts to get 6-8 assists per game. I went years expecting Stockton to get 10-15 assists and Williams to get 8-12 assists per game. Right now, with our team, I'm hoping for few <5 assist games by our point guards.

There is a huge difference between averaging 6 assists a game, and 8.

Typically 5-7 PGs can average 8+ assists a game, but 18-22 can do 6+ assists a game.

I think you should look at team related offensive stats like team AST % and ORTG, rather than what an individual is doing.

The Jazz big men can usually pass, so there will be some source of assists by them.
 

nuraman00

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Miles is gone, sounds weird.

But yeah, Marvin can both shoot and get to the rim, so he's more versatile than C.J. Also a better defender.
 

MHSL82

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There is a huge difference between averaging 6 assists a game, and 8.

Typically 5-7 PGs can average 8+ assists a game, but 18-22 can do 6+ assists a game.

I think you should look at team related offensive stats like team AST % and ORTG, rather than what an individual is doing.

The Jazz big men can usually pass, so there will be some source of assists by them.

True, but I'm talking about what I want to have, not what I expect to have. It's just, I can't get myself to say I'd be happy with "4-6 assists per game." It makes me cry in my sleep. ;)

OT: In football, I'm ok with few passing yards if we win the game. In basketball, I don't need a 20+ scorer, just a 6+ assist man. To me, 6+ speaks to someone who is selfless, intelligent, a real general on the court. A guy who plays point guard has to have assists to remark on, or else, to me, we have 2 SGs and a SF on the court. But that might just be me, being raised with Stockton. Funny that I don't mind not having a Malone as long as we win (even though he was a close second for me). When Boozer was here, some expected/hoped for a poor man's Malone, I didn't care, I just wanted a PG (we had) and wins.
 
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Sackataters

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Freaking Kanter had another solid game tonight, 14 and 14. Damn kid is going to pass Favors if Fave doesn't step on the gas.

Mo had a better game assist wise, 7 I think. And, Marvin is proving to be the shooter that he was billed to be. Jazz win at the Lakers.
 

nuraman00

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True, but I'm talking about what I want to have, not what I expect to have. It's just, I can't get myself to say I'd be happy with "4-6 assists per game." It makes me cry in my sleep. ;)

OT: In football, I'm ok with few passing yards if we win the game. In basketball, I don't need a 20+ scorer, just a 6+ assist man. To me, 6+ speaks to someone who is selfless, intelligent, a real general on the court. A guy who plays point guard has to have assists to remark on, or else, to me, we have 2 SGs and a SF on the court. But that might just be me, being raised with Stockton. Funny that I don't mind not having a Malone as long as we win (even though he was a close second for me). When Boozer was here, some expected/hoped for a poor man's Malone, I didn't care, I just wanted a PG (we had) and wins.

Mo Williams should just get 6 assists per game.

I'm just saying that you should look at team AST %. The Jazz have always gotten a lot of assists per offensive possession on a team level. You don't need John Stockton or Deron Williams. Look at the 3 years where Carlos Arroyo and Keith McLeod were the main PGs, from 2003-2004, 2004-2005, and 2005-2006. Individually, no one averaged more than 5.1 assists per game.

But on a team level, the Jazz were 19th, 7th, and 7th in assist %. Which shows they still moved the ball well. It's the system that got the assists, not the PG. Kirilenko himself averaged 4.3 assists in 2005-2006. Hence my observation that Jazz bigs like Kirilenko, Boozer, and even Jefferson last year do more passing and generate more assists. They pass to cutting guards for layups a lot. The Sloan Flex offense generated a lot of dunks and layups, and not necessarily from bigs, but from guards too.

At a certain point, it doesn't matter who's scoring or who's getting the assists if you're still getting the ball movement, as shown with a team level stat like assist %, and you're still getting a lot of close shots at the rim.

I would pull up stats from Hoop Data about how the Jazz take more shots at the rim, however:

1) They only go back to 2006-2007, which is one year too late for the time period I'm examining without an elite PG.

2) FGA attempts per game at the rim is nice, but I would have preferred it normalized as a percentage of total FGAs by the team, so that it was pace independent.

To use your football analogy, I'm saying there's still a lot of passing yards -- it's just that it's coming from other positions like RBs, Tight Ends, and Safetys. Or back to basketball positions, Centers, PFs, and SFs. It's not all about the PG, but rather the floor spacing and the system and guys moving to the spots that the plays call for for those dunks and layups.

Those dunks and layups do come at a price, as the Jazz are always among the fewest in 3-point attempts. But that's been the principle, to go for the closer shot rather than the long shot. Plus I can't recall too many teams that had great 3-point shooters anyways.

I'm thinking that if Keith McLeod, Milt Palacio, and Carlos Arroyo had the scoring talent surrounding this team, the Jazz could have moved even higher than 7th in assist %. All without increasing their individual assists per game much, but the assists coming from other positions.

Assists also depend on one other dependency: Players who catch and shoot or catch and drive.

If your team has a lot of players who isolate and get fouled, then your assists will go down, and instead those players will attempt a lot of FTs. If you had Blake Griffin and Kevin Durant on your team, you may lose a few assists, but those players would combine for 20 free throw attempts per game by themselves and get the other team in the bonus. However, the Jazz seem to be high in free throw rate themselves, as they were 2nd in 2006-2007. My guess is that those dunks and layups attempts that are generated also result in a lot of and-ones or fouls near the rim.


In the Flex Offense I trust. (Which I don't think Corbin runs as much, his offense is a little different).
 
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nuraman00

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The Jazz have been bad in my one bugaboo: Turnovers.

If I look at turnover rate:

2002 - 2003: 27th
2003 - 2004: 27th
2004 - 2005: 28th
2005 - 2006: 28th
2006 - 2007: 17th
2007 - 2008: 20th
2008 - 2009: 22nd
2009 - 2010: 26th:
2010 - 2011: 20th
2011 - 2012: 5th

The Spurs have always been better at this. They have the same great assist % as the Jazz, but with much better protection of the ball. Some years they've even been top 5 in lowest turnover rates.

Ok, I'm changing my slogan. It's not "In the Flex Offense I trust".

It's "In the Spurs offense I trust!"

I still think about those turnovers Pippen caused on Stockton.
 

nuraman00

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Speaking of big men who pass (as an observation of the many Jazz big men who pass), clintonite33 and I got into a huge discussion about our favorite passing big men.

I told him one of my favorite plays was the Malone to Stockton -- Big passing to the guard. He agreed.

Then we talked about what Boozer was doing.

He then did some research, and wrote this article on passing bigs (long):

The Art of the Interior Post Pass Gone From the NBA? | Shoot Hoops
 
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nuraman00

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So, MHSL82, maybe in my sick mind I want Malone to average more assists per game than Stockton.

Haha.
 

nuraman00

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Oh, and just a reminder that NBA TV is on free preview from now, until usually the first two weeks of the preseason.
 

nuraman00

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Freaking Kanter had another solid game tonight, 14 and 14. Damn kid is going to pass Favors if Fave doesn't step on the gas.

Mo had a better game assist wise, 7 I think. And, Marvin is proving to be the shooter that he was billed to be. Jazz win at the Lakers.

I still think you have to play Favors until he gets to about 5000 minutes on his rookie contract. He might be slow in developing, but there's a lot invested in him, and you have to get him sufficient minutes to get a better picture of how good he can get.

It's not about trying to win now, but about letting him work through mistakes, even if it comes at the expense of not playing someone else as much. If he wasn't a high draft pick, then I would say it's ok to play someone else.

But because Favors was picked high, and most agreed he belonged there, you have to let him play a bit before his rookie contract is up.

He's only played 2911 minutes in his career. He needs a 2100 minute season. Then, the Jazz should have a good idea of whether they want to extend him, let him go to RFA, or trade him.

He might be slow but he could end up getting good later. Or maybe not.

Also, the strength of his game is supposed to be defense, and you can't play real defense in preseason.
 

Sackataters

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Do you think Marvin could be an all star in the west? In limited minutes, I've been super impressed. We are a stacked team with crazy depth. Favors looked solid tonight. I think he had 4 dimes too.
 

nuraman00

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No. Remember, "forwards" are All-Stars. Not PFs and SFs separately.

Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, Pau Gasol, Marc Gasol, Andre Iguodala, LaMarcus Aldridge, David Lee, Kevin Durant, Zach Randolph, and Dirk Nowitzki are all contenders for the forward spots, and ahead of Marvin.

It doesn't matter if they take two PFs, All-Star games are not about matchups. Just like it doesn't matter if they take two PGs.

I'm putting David Lee in there because if the Warriors have a good team, he should be in the mix.
 

nuraman00

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What do you think of Kanter and Favors offense in preseason? Anything different from last year?
 

MHSL82

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What do you think of Kanter and Favors offense in preseason? Anything different from last year?

I think Favors started off slow for expectations, but that's only because some people here in Salt Lake want him to take over for Jefferson or Milsapp and for that he needs to be strong on offense. Defense and rebounding is difficult, but Jefferson and Milsapp already rebound presumably better than Favors. So, if we are reasonable, I'm ok with his offense right now. Will comment more soon, now that I know the preseason games are free on NBATV.

I like Kanter a lot and he's doing well, and despite his 14 and 14, I don't expect much offense from him. A few shots and a bunch of putbacks are my expectations for this year. And since I don't anticipate big minutes, I am not expecting much from him.
 

nuraman00

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Will comment more soon, now that I know the preseason games are free on NBATV.

Oh, and just a reminder that NBA TV is on free preview from now, until usually the first two weeks of the preseason.

I meant NBA League Pass. Usually you need a sports package to get NBA TV (which I have).

So just to clarify, NBA League Pass is on free preview from now until about 2 weeks into the season.

At about the halfway mark, they usually have another one week free preview. It's usually in late January.
 
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