2011 Giants concerns

[calsnowskier]

Reading EJs post got me thinking, and I decided to make a fresh thread since this really was a VERY tangent thought...

The Giants offense is an absolute joke right now. As EJ said, even worse than at this point last year. How can we compare this year to last year?

Last year, we found gold in the dumpsters (Burrell, Ross) and Posey made his much heralded debut. Last year, the offense was a hodge-podge of AAAA players and has-beens, so there was a lot of room for taking calculated risks.

This year, I am not sure the offense is ripe for that kind of turnaround.

Belt lit the minor-league world on fire. He came out of nowhere to put up Bondsian numbers at every level he played at. We all got excited and were expecting Posey 2.0.

However, I am not sure we can expect the same from Belt that we got from Posey. Posey was a legit offensive threat all the way back to high school. Belt had one year of OMG offense, and now has some SERIOUS question marks around his aggressiveness that may end up being a deal-breaker.

Panda was having a better year than he had in '09 before he went down. That is INCREDIBLY positive. However, he will be down for about a month or so by the time he gets back, and while I have not seen him myself since he got hurt, I have heard that he has added some lbs. That is a concern. I also do not know personally about hamet injuries, but I have heard that while they have no long term effects, they do linger for a few months after recovery. Will he be as dominate after he returns? I am not sure we can expect that.

We currently have a legit player at every position, except SS. SS is VERY thin across the league and we are paying the current SS enough money to prevent the org from taking a risk with someone. I do not see us being a player in the waiver game at any point this season, and the SS market will be expensive come trade time.

I am no Debbie Downer, but these are legit concerns. At the same time, we currently hold 1st place by a game and a half, and our offense is performing at below career norms, so maybe holding pat will have the same effect as the transaction-of-the-week that was implemented last year.

 

[tzill]

I think the Giants hitters break down into six groups regarding the rest of the season production:

1. Should show marked improvement: Huff, MiggE6, Burrell.
2. Should show some improvement: Franchez, Posey, Ross, Rowand, Fonty.
3. Should regress a little bit: Torres, Panda
4. Producing as expected: Nate, Eli
5. Wildcards -- we can't be sure: Burriss, Belt
6. Won't have much impact: DeRo, Ford

I think your concerns are legit, and as you say -- to be struggling with the injuries we've had and STILL be in first by 1.5 games -- we're in good position.

Per the SS dilemma: I think we'll pick up a Hardy/Scutaro/Wilson type in July and MiggE6 will become the "supersub" DeRo was supposed to be. I think you'll see a lineup something like this in August:

1. CF Torres
2. 2B Franchez
3. C Posey
4. 3B Panda
5. 1B Huff
6. RF Ross
7. LF Belt
8. SS Hardy

Bench: Burrell, Nate, Eli, Fonty, MiggE6

I should note that as much as I wanted Hardy last offseason, he's really not been producing much more than MiggE6 this year. Nonetheless, his defense has been stellar and I WANT HIM. I think at the end of the year Hardy will be at .260/.315/.415 by year's end and play GG level D. I'd expect MiggE6 to be around .260/.290/.365 by year's end and the more days off we can give him the better his D should be.

I think RoRo could replace Nate as the 5th OF, but I'm thinking we'll find a home for him in the AL and eat 2/3 of the rest of his contract (about $4MM this year, $8MM next year) -- Nate's D is just too valuable to trade away.

 

[nateistheshi]

I agree with pretty much everything said here so far, except that to be honest, I don't care which of Scutaro, Hardy, or Wilson the Giants acquire. The biggest difference to me is that since the Red Sox are contenders, they may want another bullpen arm instead of a prospect.

 

[gp956]

 

[calsnowskier]

I think the Giants hitters break down into six groups regarding the rest of the season production:

1. Should show marked improvement: Huff, MiggE6, Burrell.
2. Should show some improvement: Franchez, Posey, Ross, Rowand, Fonty.
3. Should regress a little bit: Torres, Panda
4. Producing as expected: Nate, Eli
5. Wildcards -- we can't be sure: Burriss, Belt
6. Won't have much impact: DeRo, Ford

1. Huff SHOULD improve. Agreed. Last years he started very slowly as well, and ended up being the heart, soul, AND muscle of the team. I am worried, but not panicked by him yet.

MiggE6, I think, should improve SLIGHTLY, but I think he is what he is. One of the defenses on these boards when he was signed was that he did so well for SD after the trade. When I went to the SD opening night against the Gs, one thing that was said to me by multiple SD fans was that we would tire of MiggE6 quickly. I think they have proven themselves accurate.

Burrell, I think, is what he is. TOP, no D.

2. I do not think we can expect much improvement from Franchez, Fonty or RoRo. RoRo was hot for a spell, but has regressed to the RoRo that we all know. He may have another hot spurt or 2, but we can not expect anything from him. Fonty, on his best day, is Eckstein light. No more. Franchez is playing solid D and hitting near .300. What more can you ask from him?

Posey and Ross should both improve. I am not concerned with Posey, because his REAL value is with the gear on, so any offense he gives is gravy (even if he was expected to be the #1 weapon on the team). Ross was a solid player pre-'10. We got a steal off the waiver-wire. He got hurt in ST and started slow in SF. His ST2.0 is over and he has been hitting pretty well since. He will be fine.

3. Panda is (again) a big question mark. Torres is doing fine, but we can not count on him to be a major contributor past this year.

4. Eli is a place holder. No point in wasting the time I have already wasted with these sentences discussing him. Nate is a tough call. Burns mentioned last night that there could be a decent case made for Nate as the teams MVP so far (I would throw Vogey into that discussion) and he has a point (if exaggerated). We have seen what shoddy D can do to this team with the lack of offense (I am looking at you, Huff and MiggE6), and we have seen what good defensive play can do (Hi Franchez and Nate). Nate saved the game on Thursday with his dive and the game last night with his throw. Does it matter how he hits? And his bat has not been HORRIBLE this year...

5. Burris is an afterthought at this point. Belt will be back, but I need him to (ugh, I can't believe I am about to say this) strike out more. Spend some time with Panda and Shaw-Juan. Go up there and try to place the ball into the pitchers eye-socket. Taking advantage of minor league pitchers and their control issues will only make you a successful AAA player. Don't be a successful AAA player.

 

[ColinCoby]

Great posts guys. Rep all around.

I was thinking today that perhaps the best thing that could have happened for Belt is to spend some time with the big club...and struggle. He wasn't overmatched, hit a nice bomb, and showed some great plate discipline. But like you said, cal, the guy lacked aggression. And it hurt him.

Let's hope we see a bit more of an Uribe-type approach when he returns (especially in those 2-0/3-1 counts). He reminded me way too much of Ishikawa at times. Try to hit one into the bay once in a while kid!

 

[Robotech]

Great posts guys. Rep all around.

I was thinking today that perhaps the best thing that could have happened for Belt is to spend some time with the big club...and struggle. He wasn't overmatched, hit a nice bomb, and showed some great plate discipline. But like you said, cal, the guy lacked aggression. And it hurt him.

Let's hope we see a bit more of an Uribe-type approach when he returns (especially in those 2-0/3-1 counts). He reminded me way too much of Ishikawa at times. Try to hit one into the bay once in a while kid!

I feel the same way about Belt. I think that the best and fastest way to develop him into a solid player or perhaps even a star is to just let him play and figure it out at the major league level. Barry Bonds hit something like .220 in his rookie year.

 

[msgkings322]

I feel the same way about Belt. I think that the best and fastest way to develop him into a solid player or perhaps even a star is to just let him play and figure it out at the major league level. Barry Bonds hit something like .220 in his rookie year.

This may be true, but we are trying to repeat as champs so I don't know if we can afford to have a kid learn on the job this year.

 

[Robotech]

This may be true, but we are trying to repeat as champs so I don't know if we can afford to have a kid learn on the job this year.

Good point. The 1986 Pirates weren't going for a championship that year when they played Bonds in his rookie year. But I guess I'm just a person who is willing to just take the risk because I feel like the offense couldn't get much worse anyway.

 

[calsnowskier]

Good point. The 1986 Pirates weren't going for a championship that year when they played Bonds in his rookie year. But I guess I'm just a person who is willing to just take the risk because I feel like the offense couldn't get much worse anyway.

So where will you play him?

1B? Huff, while scrapping, if our best potential hitter (sans Panda and MAYBE Posey), so you can not bench him.

LF? And perma-bench Burrell or move Ross to RF? Nate is playing too good to bench, IMO. Ross is hitting respectably right now and has a track record of .280, 25 so you can't really bench him.

I think you need him to destroy AAA until he FORCES the Giants to promote him (meaning FEWER walks, MORE home runs), or wait until next year when the roster-crunch is not so bad.

 

[ColinCoby]

So where will you play him?

1B? Huff, while scrapping, if our best potential hitter (sans Panda and MAYBE Posey), so you can not bench him.

LF? And perma-bench Burrell or move Ross to RF? Nate is playing too good to bench, IMO. Ross is hitting respectably right now and has a track record of .280, 25 so you can't really bench him.

I think you need him to destroy AAA until he FORCES the Giants to promote him (meaning FEWER walks, MORE home runs), or wait until next year when the roster-crunch is not so bad.

I think you're right, although (jinx alert) he is one Huff/Burrell/Ross/Rowand/Torres injury away from getting regular ABs with the big club.

 

[calsnowskier]

What is the definition of a rookie? Belt currently has 52 MLB ABs. If he is held out the rest of '11, is he still eligible for the ROY in '12?

 

[Robotech]

So where will you play him?

1B? Huff, while scrapping, if our best potential hitter (sans Panda and MAYBE Posey), so you can not bench him.

LF? And perma-bench Burrell or move Ross to RF? Nate is playing too good to bench, IMO. Ross is hitting respectably right now and has a track record of .280, 25 so you can't really bench him.

I think you need him to destroy AAA until he FORCES the Giants to promote him (meaning FEWER walks, MORE home runs), or wait until next year when the roster-crunch is not so bad.

I would play him in LF, or possibly have Huff play 3B, if he can still do it. I think Burrell has already accepted his role on this team as a bench player/occasional starter and Nate will not keep this up. Maybe when Nate cools off, my opinion will be more popular. Nate's been great and deserves all the praise right now.

 

[SFGRTB]

What is the definition of a rookie? Belt currently has 52 MLB ABs. If he is held out the rest of '11, is he still eligible for the ROY in '12?

45 games on the ML Roster OR 150 AB's