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Game Thread: 1/24 NFC Championship Buccaneers @ Packers 3:05 pm EST FOX

DJ

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And TB vs GB.
 

Yo Tee

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This is probably the first year in a while where I really truly think any of these teams could win their respective games. Here's my NFC Title Game analysis. Obviously some things will be missed here but this to me are the most important things for each team.

Pros for Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
- 6 straight wins, haven't lost since coming off of their BYE week
- Have already beaten Green Bay (Week 6, 38-10)
- 3rd highest scoring offense and 8th ranked defense based on PPG allowed
- #1 ranked defense against the run

Cons for Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
- No Antonio Brown (3 rec, 51 yds, 1 TD in the playoffs this year)
- Bottom 10 in defense against the pass
- Antoine Winfield Questionable with an ankle injury (forced fumble last week against New Orleans)
- 4 TOs last week against New Orleans
- Playing on the road

Pros for Green Bay Packers:
- Highest scoring offense and 13th ranked defense based on PPG allowed
- 7 straight wins including 3 regular season wins over 2 playoff teams (Bears 2x and Titans)
- #1 passing game in the league based on TDs:INT ratio
- GB defense has not allowed 300+ yards passing all year long
- GB is averaging 36 PPG the last 3 games (30+ points in 7 of the last 8 games)
- Playing at home

Cons for Green Bay Packers:
- Lost to Tampa Bay Week 6
- Bottom 10 in causing turnovers on defense
- Kevin King Questionable with back injury (2 PD against Bears, Week 17)


This game is pretty simple. Brady and the Bucs need to do exactly what they did during Week 6. The Packers, IMO, are the ones that need to stop Tampa Bay and not the other way around. If the running game gets going for Tampa Bay, it's over. Because the play-action will work and Brady will throw for days against the Packers secondary. What the Bucs have to worry about is them defeating themselves. 4 TOs simply cannot happen against Green Bay because Aaron Rodgers WILL capitalize on those turnovers. Aaron Rodgers will win the MVP this year, but I don't think he will be playing in the Super Bowl in February. First time for a lot of these guys on the Bucs playing at this level. They will want to ball out and I think they will.

Game Prediction:
Buccaneers - 33
Packers - 24
 

Yo Tee

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Here's my AFC Title Game analysis. Obviously some things will be missed here but this to me are the most important things for each team.

Pros for Kansas City Chiefs:
- 6th ranked scoring offense and 10th ranked defense based on PPG allowed
- #1 ranked passing attack based on passing yards
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire is returning from injury
- Patrick Mahomes cleared from concussion protocol
- Won 11 of the last 12 games
- Playing at home
- Already beat Buffalo in Week 6 (26-17)

Cons for Kansas City Chiefs:
- Le'Veon Bell Questionable for Knee injury
- Bottom 10 in the league in rushing yards allowed
- 2 TOs last week against Cleveland
- Averaging 20 PPG over the last 3 games

Pros for Buffalo Bills:
- 2nd ranked scoring offense and 16th ranked defense based on PPG allowed
- Top 3 offense in passing yards and passing TDs
- 8 straight wins (averaging 32 PPG)
- Haven't allowed 30 points in a game since Week 10 against Arizona
- 80% 4th down conversion
- Only 1 TO in the Playoffs

Cons for Buffalo Bills:
- Playing on the road
- Bottom 5 defense based on rushing TDs allowed
- Allowed 140+ rushing yards in 4 of the last 5 games
- Gabriel Davis Questionable with ankle injury
- 20th ranked rushing attack
- Lost to KC, Week 6

This is a tough game. My gut instinct is to say that the Chiefs win this game. But the way Buffalo has played the last 2 months of the season has been maybe a few moments short of PERFECT. If Aaron Rodgers didn't ball out this year, Josh Allen would be a favorite for MVP. But then I start to think and, just like with the NFC title game, we've seen this game before and already know the outcome. All KC needs to do is get the running game going and I think they can with CEH coming back. If KC can get the running game going, I don't think Buffalo can stop it. Buffalo will have to rely too much on Allen's arm during the game and I think that's the ultimate factor. Missing Davis will be a bummer as seen last week. With no Davis, the offense seems to slow down unless Stefon Diggs gets hot. I think the Chiefs win and I think they do it because of the running attack, but obviously with a little help from Patty Homes!


Game Prediction:
Chiefs - 30
Bills - 20
 

Clayton

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Big thing for the NFC title game is if the Packers can hide their #2 CB and if the Bucs can stop Davante Adams and make the other dudes win the game for the Packers.

The Bucs D line are monsters and if they're fully healthy then they are going to give every team left in the playoffs massive issues. They basically controlled the game against the Chiefs and Packers in the 2nd halves of their games in the regular season, IIRC. If the weather gets bad for whatever reason and the Packers have to start running the ball, which they are really good at, then its going to be like a godzilla fight and probably the most physical game of the year. For the Packers to win, its gotta be Rodgers getting the ball out and on target which he has been almost historically good all year. The Packers will also likely have to build a lead early, too.

I do think the Bucs are going to have some issues scoring on the Packers, too, though. Brady is a top 10 QB this year playing against the #1 QB. If the Packers can take away Mike Evans without using Jaire Alexander and just have their #1 CB take away the splash plays then the Bucs offense might not be very explosive. Bucs get a lot of splash plays through the run game, though, and otherwise kind subpar running team. The Packers are definitely the better team but the Bucs matchup well with them. My gut says:

Packers - 27
Bucs - 24
 

Clayton

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There is a blueprint for beating the Chiefs that teams have been crafting for two years now. You keep the safeties back and make Mahomes make short throw after short throw and you let the Chiefs run the ball. Occasionally the Chiefs have a big penalty or the drive stalls out in the red zone. If Mahomes is banged up and the Bills blitz Mahomes, the Chiefs will still probably be doing short throw after short throw. The Bills will just need to tackle. The other thing that trips up the Chiefs offense is if you keep Mahomes contained in the pocket because he rarely steps up into it. You get to avoid most of the Mahomes magic plays that way and even see some spectacularly bad sacks taken. The thing about this matchup is that we probably know that the Chiefs can get 24-31 points against the Bills while controlling the clock. Both teams will aim for this, imo. Assuming that both teams are healthy then thats a pretty likely result.

So the question becomes, if Mahomes is healthy, is how many points will the Bills score? Thats the other big unknown here. Allen had one of this worst games against the Chiefs earlier this season only really salvaging it in garbage time. But what if the weather is better? What if Allen is better? Chiefs don't really have any effective spy options against Allen so they'll likely blitz alot like usual. Mayfield did well against the blitz for the most part and Allen is going to get those same opportunities. This is Josh Allen's game to win. The 2 QBs are pretty evenly matched if they're healthy.

I'm not going to give a score to the game because I'm biased and you know which way I'll lean. If Mahomes isn't healthy then the Bills do win this pretty easily, though. I think Henne would only be good for 1 TD at most against the Bills defense.
 

PDay8810

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It's pretty clear Brady today is the best there ever was but some still give the nod to Montana. If somehow he beats Rodgers and then Mahomes for another championship it becomes without question he's the GOAT
 

Clayton

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It's pretty clear Brady today is the best there ever was but some still give the nod to Montana. If somehow he beats Rodgers and then Mahomes for another championship it becomes without question he's the GOAT
Honestly, Super Bowl LI is pretty much the GOAT performance someone could hope for. The Patriots were getting rolled by the Falcons and came back to win. I think that there really isn't anything Brady can do to top that performance and if you dont already have him as the GOAT then its because you haven't given him enough time to think it through.

Its a big game for all teams involved but, imo, this game is biggest for Aaron Rodgers. Easily. The Packers and Bills are both playing the team that matches up with them the best from the regular season. Its all about Rodgers and Allen. The general expectation should be that the results from the regular season repeats itself so those are the guys who need to buck that trend.
 

WNY_FOOTBALL_DUDE

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My 3 cents.

Bucs @ Packers

Offense - Packers 31.8 points per game (17 games), Buccaneers 30.7 points per game (18 games)
Difference - 1.1 in favor of Green Bay.

Defense - Packers 22.8 points per game, Buccaneers 22.1 points per game,
Difference - 0.7 difference in favor of Tampa Bay.

Overall, that's a .4 difference in favor of the Packers.

The biggest x-factor for the Bucs - Tom Brady is the king of Conference Championship games, winning 9 out of the 13. Aaron Rodgers is 1 out of 4 appearances.

The biggest x-factor for the Packers - The Packers will be playing their third straight NFC Conference game. It'll be there first playing at home and having the higher seed.

My prediction is Packers. It's their time and their moment to get back to the Super Bowl.

Bills @ Chiefs

Offense - Chiefs 29.1 points per game (17 games), Bills 30.3 points per game (18 games)
Difference - 1.2 in favor of Buffalo.

Defense - Both teams average 22.3 points per game.
Difference - wash.

If you discount the game Mahomes didn't start, then the Bills have a 0.7 advantage on offense and a 1 point advantage for the Chiefs on defense. The Chiefs averaged 29.6 on offense with Mahomes in the line-up and 21.3 points on defense.

The biggest x-factor for the Bills - The Hail Murray Effect. Ever since the Bills lost to the Cards, they have been a radically different team. Their offense has averaged 34.1 points per game to 17.1 points allowed on defense. 7 out of their 8 wins were by double-digits. These included wins against Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Dolphins, Indianapolis Colts and the Baltimore Ravens.

The biggest x-factor for the Chiefs - Experience. This is the Chiefs' third straight AFC Championship game and they are playing Arrowhead Stadium. The Bills are playing in their first AFC Championship game since 1993.

No real prediction here. I will be rooting for my team.
 

molsaniceman

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food for thought

No QB making 20 mil or more that year has ever won a SB

Brady-25 mil
Maholmes-24 mil
Rodgers-36 mil
Allen-6 mil

So bet your house on the Bills :suds:
 

Dude

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If this is game day thread, suggest something friendlier for the title...
 

Dude

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NFL Conferences Showdown: 14:05 ET and 19:40!
 

Dude

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Or separate game threads, that would be cool.
 

Dak_&_Zeke

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It's pretty clear Brady today is the best there ever was but some still give the nod to Montana. If somehow he beats Rodgers and then Mahomes for another championship it becomes without question he's the GOAT
Brady became the GOAT when he came back 28-3 to win that ring.
 

RememberTheKoy

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My most desired Super Bowl matchups ranked:

1. Chiefs vs Bucs
2. Chiefs vs Packers
3. Bills vs Bucs
4. Bills vs Packers


Any Super Bowl matchup will be great though.
 

LambeauLegs

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The prize clearly in sight

The mountain top two victories away

A rematch with a southern Bay

A foe who months ago soundly defeated our Men of the Emerald Bay on their home turf

Led by a Goat they now come to battle on the Frozen Tundra

They will try to repeat their dominance on our Hallowed Ground

The time is at hand to rise up Men of the Bay


Stay the course the summit is within reach

1611496582211.png
 

Used 2 B Hu

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Ooooh, I wanna see both teams lose SO BAD
 

DJ

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Ready for football!!!!
 
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