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The probability of getting through Jan. 15 still undefeated. 42.9% Michigan 38.1% Nevada 25.8% Virginia (would mean they are 16-0 when they visit Duke on 19th) 20.1% Buffalo 18.9% Houston 16.3% Kansas 5.4% Texas Tech 2.6% Furman 1.9% St. John's I wouldn't expect more than 2 teams to make it...