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Bow Down to T.J.

trojanfan12

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OK.

Lakers play the Blazers for 7 games in a neutral court

Or for 4 games at Staples and 3 in Portland

Which scenario gives Portland the better chance to win the series?

The answer is plain and obvious. The Lakers odds of getting upset increase in every single series because they lost home court advantage.

On the flip side, the would be road team has improved odds.

So unequivocally, the bubble hurts the Lakers chances while simultaneously helping others.

Should they still win? Against everybody but LAC the answer is still yes. But they are definitely less likely to now because of the bubble.

Definitely not rocket science. And honestly not even sure this point is debatable.

If healthy all season, the Blazers would be right in the mix with the Lakers, Clippers, Bucks, etc. and it wouldn't be an upset for them to beat any of them.

A true 8 seed like the Grizzlies, aren't beating the Lakers, Clippers or Bucks anywhere.

In a 7 game series, the better team wins regardless of where the games are played. That's why the NBA uses 7 game series in all series. They want the best teams getting to the finals.

But yeah, go ahead with your "not even debatable" nonsense like that means you won something.
 

bksballer89

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In a series where 1 team is overmatched nuetral site is meaningless.

In a competitive series that would have gone 6+, it is a significant boost to the lower seed.

After all, the home team has won 79.8% of game 7s throughout NBA history. Now that game is coin flip.

lol yeah i give up on debating this topic.
 

tlance

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If healthy all season, the Blazers would be right in the mix with the Lakers, Clippers, Bucks, etc. and it wouldn't be an upset for them to beat any of them.

A true 8 seed like the Grizzlies, aren't beating the Lakers, Clippers or Bucks anywhere.

In a 7 game series, the better team wins regardless of where the games are played. That's why the NBA uses 7 game series in all series. They want the best teams getting to the finals.

But yeah, go ahead with your "not even debatable" nonsense like that means you won something.

That is all well and good.

I posted facts that prove my argument.

You along with many others have even said this playoffs is more wide open than any other in recent history.

The bubble and the lack of home court definitely plays into that.

Whether you care to admit you are wrong or not, “more wide open” = bad for the chances of top seeds. Even if the difference is only marginal.

You can argue that the impact will be marginal. But there is an impact.
 

trojanfan12

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That is all well and good.

I posted facts that prove my argument.

You along with many others have even said this playoffs is more wide open than any other in recent history.

The bubble and the lack of home court definitely plays into that.

Whether you care to admit you are wrong or not, “more wide open” = bad for the chances of top seeds. Even if the difference is only marginal.

You can argue that the impact will be marginal. But there is an impact.

lol @thinking your opinion equals fact.
 

WiggyRuss

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In a series where 1 team is overmatched nuetral site is meaningless.

In a competitive series that would have gone 6+, it is a significant boost to the lower seed.

After all, the home team has won 79.8% of game 7s throughout NBA history. Now that game is coin flip.
"now that game is a coin flip"

i definitely wouldn't call it a coin flip

maybe not 80% anymore- but CERTAINLY not a "coin flip"
 

WiggyRuss

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lol

You realize that also means that teams like Miami won't be playing in front of their home crowd either, right?

Part of the reason lower seeded teams are seeded lower is because they typically play better at home than on the road. None of them are at home.

Miami and Indy wouldn't need to win 2 games in Milwaukee. They need to win 1 and not lose at home.

None of the teams have been through anything like this before and no one really has an advantage because no one's been through this.

About the only advantage, imo, would be for the veteran players. They haven't been through anything like this either, but at least they've dealt with a little more adversity.

The "advantage" that the lower seeded teams have right now is that they are trying to improve their seeding/get more favorable matchups.

Or in the case of teams like the Nets, Suns, Spurs, etc. are desperately trying to at least get to the play in games.

The bubble changes the dynamics a bit because it's unprecedented. But all it does is even the playing field a bit. But the better, more talented teams are still the better more talented teams.

Btw, isn't it awesome to be arguing about basketball again? :suds:
You realize that also means that teams like Miami won't be playing in front of their home crowd either, right?

Thats the point- teams play better at home. When you have more home games then the other team you have an advantage.

Part of the reason lower seeded teams are seeded lower is because they typically play better at home than on the road. None of them are at home.

? uhh what? bad teams play better at home. good teams play better at home.

Miami and Indy wouldn't need to win 2 games in Milwaukee. They need to win 1 and not lose at home.

conversely, Milwaukee- the team with the best home record in the NBA, would just not have to lose at home and wouldnt have to do anything on the road.

None of the teams have been through anything like this before and no one really has an advantage because no one's been through this.

you are correct- no one has an advantage since home court is gone- typically the team with home court would have advantage because---- you are more likely to win at home (not ground breaking)- but with no home court- no one has an advantage- this is a very true statement

About the only advantage, imo, would be for the veteran players. They haven't been through anything like this either, but at least they've dealt with a little more adversity.

can be argued either way- i have heard arguments that veteran players will be better off, that young guys will be better off because of the circumstances etc.....who knows- just from my eyes- the only team that is unbeaten is an extremely young team.

The "advantage" that the lower seeded teams have right now is that they are trying to improve their seeding/get more favorable matchups.



Or in the case of teams like the Nets, Suns, Spurs, etc. are desperately trying to at least get to the play in games.

The bubble changes the dynamics a bit because it's unprecedented. But all it does is even the playing field a bit. But the better, more talented teams are still the better more talented teams.

i dont think anyone is debating that the better teams are still the better teams


Btw, isn't it awesome to be arguing about basketball again?
 

trojanfan12

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Thats the point- teams play better at home. When you have more home games then the other team you have an advantage.

When you have a better team, you also have an advantage. I haven't looked at any stats, but I expect that it's pretty rare that a team wins a series by just winning 4 games at home.

? uhh what? bad teams play better at home. good teams play better at home.

And no team is playing any home games. So there is no home court for a bad team to play better in or for a good team to play better in. Better more talented teams are still better and more talented.

conversely, Milwaukee- the team with the best home record in the NBA, would just not have to lose at home and wouldnt have to do anything on the road.

How many teams in history have won a series by only winning 4 home games?

you are correct- no one has an advantage since home court is gone- typically the team with home court would have advantage because---- you are more likely to win at home (not ground breaking)- but with no home court- no one has an advantage- this is a very true statement

Which, brings us back to better more talented teams being better and more talented. Which is why they would have had HCA in the first place.

can be argued either way- i have heard arguments that veteran players will be better off, that young guys will be better off because of the circumstances etc.....who knows- just from my eyes- the only team that is unbeaten is an extremely young team.

I agree with that to a certain extent. For example, Lebron has been in the league for 17 years. He has his routine set for how he prepares for everything. He has little of that in the bubble.

So I could see where a younger player who just plays and doesn't really have his routine, etc. set in stone, might be able to sort of, at least initially, "go with the flow" better than an older player.

There was an interview with Lebron where he said that there wasn't really any preparing for the bubble. they just had to figure it out when they got there. That could be a bit of a problem for a guy who prepares for every little thing.

I think the Suns and some others that have performed better than expected are playing like they have nothing to lose (because they don't) and have been able to take advantage of teams that do have something to lose and don't want to risk guys getting hurt.

i dont think anyone is debating that the better teams are still the better teams

True, I just don't believe that the impact of the bubble is anywhere near what some have tried to claim on here.

For example, if a fully healthy Portland beats the Lakers in the first round...is it really much of an upset since if they were fully healthy, they'd likely be in the mix at the top of the conference? Especially since the Lakers will be without the 2 guys who have any chance at all of at least annoying Dame on defense.

If the Grizzlies manage to keep the 8 seed, do they have any chance of taking out the Lakers?
 

bksballer89

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I posted facts.

But your logic makes absolutely no sense at all. Just so you know.

Lol it really doesn't. It's not like we're saying the better team still wont win in a best of 7. We are just saying lower seed teams chances increases since they dont have to play a true road game against the best teams in the league
 

WiggyRuss

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Lol it really doesn't. It's not like we're saying the better team still wont win in a best of 7. We are just saying lower seed teams chances increases since they dont have to play a true road game against the best teams in the league
this is common sense if you ask me
 

trojanfan12

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Lol it really doesn't. It's not like we're saying the better team still wont win in a best of 7. We are just saying lower seed teams chances increases since they dont have to play a true road game against the best teams in the league

lol

Yeah, the lower seeded team has a better chance to win a series that they won't win.

That's some real solid "lawjik" there.
 

tlance

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"now that game is a coin flip"

i definitely wouldn't call it a coin flip

maybe not 80% anymore- but CERTAINLY not a "coin flip"

Close though....

If a series gets to a 7th game, there will always be a Vegas favorite. But on a neutral court that game really could go either way in most cases.

Maybe 55% - 45% or even 60/40, but certainly not the 80% it was before.

So the lack of home court advantage for the high seed creates better opportunity for the low seed to win. Which is what I think we are both saying.
 

tlance

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lol

Yeah, the lower seeded team has a better chance to win a series that they won't win.

That's some real solid "lawjik" there.

It is sound logic though.

Had the season played out normally, we all would have assigned much higher probability to a Lakers/Clips WCF than we would now.

I am definitely still picking that matchup. But where I thought it was close to 90% back in March that those 2 teams would advance, I now believe it is probably closer to 50%.
 

msgkings322

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Lol it really doesn't. It's not like we're saying the better team still wont win in a best of 7. We are just saying lower seed teams chances increases since they dont have to play a true road game against the best teams in the league

Agreed, kind of weird to see TF die on this hill. I get that no one likes to back down from a take, but all that's being said is the better teams have a little less of an advantage. Not that they still aren't favored, not that they aren't still the better team. HCA is a real thing and now it's gone. Not complicated.
 

trojanfan12

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Agreed, kind of weird to see TF die on this hill. I get that no one likes to back down from a take, but all that's being said is the better teams have a little less of an advantage. Not that they still aren't favored, not that they aren't still the better team. HCA is a real thing and now it's gone. Not complicated.

Gone for both teams. You're right, not complicated.

Also, I didn't say there was no advantage. I said it won't effect outcomes. None of the better teams are going to lose a series because of the bubble.
 

dtgold88

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Gone for both teams. You're right, not complicated.

Also, I didn't say there was no advantage. I said it won't effect outcomes. None of the better teams are going to lose a series because of the bubble.
If true, why do they care about home court in normal times?
 

trojanfan12

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If true, why do they care about home court in normal times?

Because there's more money to be made and sleeping in your own bed is always preferable.

I didn't hear the full quote, so I don't have the full context, but I heard part of an interview with Kawhi and it sounded like he was saying that home court doesn't really mean that much anymore.
 

dtgold88

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Because there's more money to be made and sleeping in your own bed is always preferable.

I didn't hear the full quote, so I don't have the full context, but I heard part of an interview with Kawhi and it sounded like he was saying that home court doesn't really mean that much anymore.
It does seem to mean less....and watching Lebron from 2010-2014 cannot recall him seeming like he cared about it. Though that was in the East.
 
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