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SmokingMonkey

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holy shit, Amari Cooper is the total embodiment/WR version of the old "BigBen is only good at home" fantasy rule

upload_2020-5-30_16-32-5.png

would love to hear some thoughts on why people think this is going on with the Dak-Coop connection

Dak's splits aren't nearly as extreme, but do favor the friendly confines of the billion dollar stadium, especially when it comes to scoring

upload_2020-5-30_16-34-18.png

1) I think it is a little easier to run on the road than pass - the timing for OL at home is typically a lot better than on the road, so this makes a bit of sense to me
a. If you have a RB like Zeke and you've paid him, gotta feed him if you aren't getting as great of QB play on the road.

2) Cooper's only 4 games over 100yds were all at home, so of course we'll see the splits play out this way, but where does he go in road games?
a. 49% of his yards and 38% of his TDs came in those 4 games - this really speaks to the ups and downs you need to expect, cause you aren't ever benching cooper unless you're insane
b. If I had cooper, I'd prob treat him as more of a flex play, and would want some higher floor WRs in the supporting cast to even things out a bit. I don't think you'll fair well throughout the full season if you have all boom/bust guys, but could be wrong there - no data to support my thoughts

3) does the crowd noise impact WRs in particular, or is that more of an impact on OL and QB, with WR production being the output/result vs the cause?

comparison
Gallup
upload_2020-5-30_16-43-26.png
TDs (unpredictable) are down, but rec and yards (predictable) are pretty much the same

Elliot
upload_2020-5-30_16-44-47.png
also pretty damn close to even no matter where they play

been a lot of talk about this offense and the impacts of Lamb and what not. One of the best offenses from a fantasy perspective last year and they run a TON of plays, so thought this might just bring up some interesting convo. Looked into this after Harold's Diontae vs Gallup dynasty question so thought I'd share
 

TREFF

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holy shit, Amari Cooper is the total embodiment/WR version of the old "BigBen is only good at home" fantasy rule

View attachment 243511

would love to hear some thoughts on why people think this is going on with the Dak-Coop connection

Dak's splits aren't nearly as extreme, but do favor the friendly confines of the billion dollar stadium, especially when it comes to scoring

View attachment 243512

1) I think it is a little easier to run on the road than pass - the timing for OL at home is typically a lot better than on the road, so this makes a bit of sense to me
a. If you have a RB like Zeke and you've paid him, gotta feed him if you aren't getting as great of QB play on the road.

2) Cooper's only 4 games over 100yds were all at home, so of course we'll see the splits play out this way, but where does he go in road games?
a. 49% of his yards and 38% of his TDs came in those 4 games - this really speaks to the ups and downs you need to expect, cause you aren't ever benching cooper unless you're insane
b. If I had cooper, I'd prob treat him as more of a flex play, and would want some higher floor WRs in the supporting cast to even things out a bit. I don't think you'll fair well throughout the full season if you have all boom/bust guys, but could be wrong there - no data to support my thoughts

3) does the crowd noise impact WRs in particular, or is that more of an impact on OL and QB, with WR production being the output/result vs the cause?

comparison
Gallup
View attachment 243513
TDs (unpredictable) are down, but rec and yards (predictable) are pretty much the same

Elliot
View attachment 243514
also pretty damn close to even no matter where they play

been a lot of talk about this offense and the impacts of Lamb and what not. One of the best offenses from a fantasy perspective last year and they run a TON of plays, so thought this might just bring up some interesting convo. Looked into this after Harold's Diontae vs Gallup dynasty question so thought I'd share
Well I'll just reiterate from earlier, Cooper was basically a one legged receiver for most of the season, none of those numbers, in my opinion, are indicative of what he could do if %100, home or away.
 

SmokingMonkey

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Well I'll just reiterate from earlier, Cooper was basically a one legged receiver for most of the season, none of those numbers, in my opinion, are indicative of what he could do if %100, home or away.

It's a rough sport, I don't buy too much into the "he played hurt last yr" narratives as far as that indicating someone will perform better next yr. He's gonna get banged up again and will have to decide to play through or sit out. You can't catch 8-10 passes in a game and not take a few shots in the process.

People dogged Bruce and Holt for diving after catches saying they were soft. Nope, they were smart, no way Holt leads the league in rec yards for the 1st decade of 2000's if he gets cleaned up by a safety trying to get an extra yard
 

TREFF

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It's a rough sport, I don't buy too much into the "he played hurt last yr" narratives as far as that indicating someone will perform better next yr. He's gonna get banged up again and will have to decide to play through or sit out. You can't catch 8-10 passes in a game and not take a few shots in the process.

People dogged Bruce and Holt for diving after catches saying they were soft. Nope, they were smart, no way Holt leads the league in rec yards for the 1st decade of 2000's if he gets cleaned up by a safety trying to get an extra yard
I'm not saying he should get a pass altogether, just saying the production was hampered by something he had no control over. Its not a lack of ability, or lack of desire, or home or away, he was simply playing injured more often than not. And the really odd thing is, it was still his best season, statistically, of his career. Can only imagine what could be possible, but last year is closer to a floor in that offense than a ceiling
 

averagejoe

You fell victim to one of the classic blunders.
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How about this angle:
How rookie WR did in their first year in PIT.

Lots of familiar names on this list.
Even the stud Antonio Brown did not have a very impressive rookie campaign.

upload_2020-5-31_7-43-32.png

This doesn't give me any renewed confidence in Diontae Johnson.
However, that still doesn't gaurantee that JuJu is their man at the WR1 spot becasue they did draft Washington and then Johnson in consecutive seasons.

Gallup has great numbers.
But with what they are paying Cooper, and to draft arguably the best WR in this draft class in Lamb, i just can't see Gallup having a significant productive role. Unless they use him like a TE?
 

averagejoe

You fell victim to one of the classic blunders.
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Forgot to add that PIT did add yet another rookie WR in Claypool.
I think they're searching for a WR.
If you include the undrafted Eli in 2016, that's 5 consecutive years they've drafted a WR.
Now maybe that's not too strange for a team to take shots at WR depth via the draft.
But JuJu, Washington, Johnson and now Claypool were all drafted within the top 70 overall players in each of their drafts.
 

SmokingMonkey

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I think they're searching for a WR.

they've added RBs the last few years too

I think they are putting as many weapons around BigBen as possible to capitalize on his last few seasons, since they know the QB search can last a long time. They built a solid DL and LB group mainly through the draft and shored up the secondary via trades and free agency.

Also, Manny Sanders was drafted ahead of Antonio Brown and considered the better prospect by damn near everyone at the time. Crazy he didn't even make the top 14 list for rookie WR production.

Can one of our Steelers residents chime in here - was Manny injured his rookie year?
 

averagejoe

You fell victim to one of the classic blunders.
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Manny Sanders was drafted ahead of Antonio Brown and considered the better prospect by damn near everyone at the time. Crazy he didn't even make the top 14 list for rookie WR production.
This might be a flaw in the PFR data.
It shows Manny being drafted in 2010, but it does not list a position.
My search was specifically on WR.
He had 376 yards his rookie season.

upload_2020-5-31_9-33-20.png
 

Barilko

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holy shit, Amari Cooper is the total embodiment/WR version of the old "BigBen is only good at home" fantasy rule

View attachment 243511

would love to hear some thoughts on why people think this is going on with the Dak-Coop connection

Dak's splits aren't nearly as extreme, but do favor the friendly confines of the billion dollar stadium, especially when it comes to scoring

View attachment 243512

1) I think it is a little easier to run on the road than pass - the timing for OL at home is typically a lot better than on the road, so this makes a bit of sense to me
a. If you have a RB like Zeke and you've paid him, gotta feed him if you aren't getting as great of QB play on the road.

2) Cooper's only 4 games over 100yds were all at home, so of course we'll see the splits play out this way, but where does he go in road games?
a. 49% of his yards and 38% of his TDs came in those 4 games - this really speaks to the ups and downs you need to expect, cause you aren't ever benching cooper unless you're insane
b. If I had cooper, I'd prob treat him as more of a flex play, and would want some higher floor WRs in the supporting cast to even things out a bit. I don't think you'll fair well throughout the full season if you have all boom/bust guys, but could be wrong there - no data to support my thoughts

3) does the crowd noise impact WRs in particular, or is that more of an impact on OL and QB, with WR production being the output/result vs the cause?

comparison
Gallup
View attachment 243513
TDs (unpredictable) are down, but rec and yards (predictable) are pretty much the same

Elliot
View attachment 243514
also pretty damn close to even no matter where they play

been a lot of talk about this offense and the impacts of Lamb and what not. One of the best offenses from a fantasy perspective last year and they run a TON of plays, so thought this might just bring up some interesting convo. Looked into this after Harold's Diontae vs Gallup dynasty question so thought I'd share
jeesh do i have too

not just your average Smoking Monkey
 

SmokingMonkey

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More and more I'm looking into the Dallas WR group, the more and more I come away liking Gallup

Am I going crazy due to the pandemic and civil unrest? (Rhetorical question, the fantasy forum isn't the place, only football or non-political discussions here)

Is CeeDee Lamb a better WR prospect than Mike Williams, drafted 7th overall a few yrs back?
If so, why? (Not rhetorical, pls feel free to chime in)

Mike Williams didn't unseat Allen for the chargers, at least not yet. Have a hard time seeing Lamb unseat Gallup in a year without a regular off season. And Coop only shows up once every 4 games, so that leaves tremendous opportunity for Gallup.

Thoughts?
 

TREFF

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More and more I'm looking into the Dallas WR group, the more and more I come away liking Gallup

Am I going crazy due to the pandemic and civil unrest? (Rhetorical question, the fantasy forum isn't the place, only football or non-political discussions here)

Is CeeDee Lamb a better WR prospect than Mike Williams, drafted 7th overall a few yrs back?
If so, why? (Not rhetorical, pls feel free to chime in)

Mike Williams didn't unseat Allen for the chargers, at least not yet. Have a hard time seeing Lamb unseat Gallup in a year without a regular off season. And Coop only shows up once every 4 games, so that leaves tremendous opportunity for Gallup.

Thoughts?
I also don't see Lamb straight up unseating anyone in year one. Not unless he's more gifted than hes been given credit for. But..if he handles the #3 well enough this year, to show that hes capable of the #2 role, then with Gallup being a UFA at the end of '21, Dallas would be stupid to not shop Gallup for something. Once they finally pay Dak, they aren't going to pay 2 WR's big money, one of them will have to go, and if they trade Gallup with a year left on his rookie deal, they'll get helluvalot more for him than if they wait and have no leverage, or worse, nothing at all if they let him walk.

I don't think theres any way around it, Gallup is a Cowboy for one, or two more seasons, he will not sign a second contract in Dallas, barring something unforeseen happening to Cooper. They simply won't be able to afford it if they sign Dak
 

Bandit

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I think what really matters is that Lamb is a lot better than Randall Cobb who had 83 targets last year. If Lamb plays the slot and gets the slot corner covering him, he's going to be open . . . a lot. So if that target number goes up to around 100 (which isn't that much more than Cobb had) then that's going to probably put all three of them around the same number. The three main Dallas wide receivers last year combined for 303 targets, and last year they probably threw the ball a lot more than they wanted to. Yes that doesn't take into account the 82 targets Witten had, but tight end targets tend to stick with tight ends, not move to wide receivers. So if there are 303 targets up for grabs, then you figure out how to divide that to make any of them finish in the WR1 conversation next year, because I don't see it happening without an injury to one of them. I think just like last year there will be games that Cooper blows up, games that Gallup blows up, and games that Lamb blows up, but you'll have no idea which one it will be each game and each one will be just as likely to have 2 catches for 24 yards as 10 catches for 180 yards and 3 touchdowns, which makes it a nightmare from a fantasy perspective.
 

HaroldSeattle

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I think what really matters is that Lamb is a lot better than Randall Cobb who had 83 targets last year. If Lamb plays the slot and gets the slot corner covering him, he's going to be open . . . a lot. So if that target number goes up to around 100 (which isn't that much more than Cobb had) then that's going to probably put all three of them around the same number. The three main Dallas wide receivers last year combined for 303 targets, and last year they probably threw the ball a lot more than they wanted to. Yes that doesn't take into account the 82 targets Witten had, but tight end targets tend to stick with tight ends, not move to wide receivers. So if there are 303 targets up for grabs, then you figure out how to divide that to make any of them finish in the WR1 conversation next year, because I don't see it happening without an injury to one of them. I think just like last year there will be games that Cooper blows up, games that Gallup blows up, and games that Lamb blows up, but you'll have no idea which one it will be each game and each one will be just as likely to have 2 catches for 24 yards as 10 catches for 180 yards and 3 touchdowns, which makes it a nightmare from a fantasy perspective.

Your post makes a lot sense. Not sure I buy CeeDee performing better then Cobb did last year. Not that he doesn't have the talent, just that even really good rookie WRs take time to fit into a offense and with two dependable vets there is no need to accelerate or force feed CeeDee. Think it will be a more gradual process. However I do buy the idea that the WR who blows up will be hard to call week to week in the Cowboys offense.
 

SmokingMonkey

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upload_2020-6-1_18-42-20.png

we are starting to inch closer to Bryan Edwards season baby!!!!
 

SmokingMonkey

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Yes that doesn't take into account the 82 targets Witten had, but tight end targets tend to stick with tight ends, not move to wide receivers........I think just like last year there will be games that Cooper blows up, games that Gallup blows up, and games that Lamb blows up, but you'll have no idea which one it will be each game and each one will be just as likely to have 2 catches for 24 yards as 10 catches for 180 yards and 3 touchdowns, which makes it a nightmare from a fantasy perspective.

1) the TE comment typically rings true, when the HC doesn't change. Remember all the hype for every single TE that went to GB after Finley's career got ruined by that neck injury? none of them did shit. could be Rodgers' fault, could be MM, either way, I'm not a believer that this is Jarwin breakout season. I'd reduce the TE targets to the 50-60 range, freeing up an additional 20 for the WRs and giving Jarwin more than he had last year. Just projections, you could very well be right and I could be wrong.

2) c'mon man, I've been breaking down last seasons DAL WR splits like a mad man this offseason. now i just feel like you're ignoring me! Cooper is the only one that is going to disappear and give ou 2 for 24 when he doesn't blow up. The floor is there for Gallup, book it!
 

TREFF

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1) the TE comment typically rings true, when the HC doesn't change. Remember all the hype for every single TE that went to GB after Finley's career got ruined by that neck injury? none of them did shit. could be Rodgers' fault, could be MM, either way, I'm not a believer that this is Jarwin breakout season. I'd reduce the TE targets to the 50-60 range, freeing up an additional 20 for the WRs and giving Jarwin more than he had last year. Just projections, you could very well be right and I could be wrong.

2) c'mon man, I've been breaking down last seasons DAL WR splits like a mad man this offseason. now i just feel like you're ignoring me! Cooper is the only one that is going to disappear and give ou 2 for 24 when he doesn't blow up. The floor is there for Gallup, book it!
I was in board for Jarwins breakout season....until they drafted Lamb. Now he's just gonna be one if those TE's you stash on the back end of the roster and hope the week you need him is the week he gets 3/40/2.

I ain't gonna rehash anything on the Cooper/Gallup front :) :suds:
 

SmokingMonkey

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I ain't gonna rehash anything on the Cooper/Gallup front :) :suds:

i think both are going to be good again THIS year. So hard to make an impact as a rookie WR when you're the best one on a team, let alone a team that now boasts 3 good ones.

IMO, it's how we project the future of DAL WR production that we don't agree on. And we'll still be here talking about it in 2022 when we get to see how it all shakes out, I'm sure of that.
 
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