2020 Draft

LHG · Apr 4, 2020

I know its a bit early to talk about the draft, considering there is a possibility that there will be no draft. But this article came out today so I thought I'd post it for when (if) the draft is held this year. Talk is that, if held, it will be 5 to 10 rounds. (Side note - I do wonder how that will affect the lower levels of the minor leagues. Do the Giants just not release as many guys at the end of whatever spring training is held? Do they only field one AZL team? No AZL teams? It the season plays out, and I really hope it does, how all this goes will be interesting to watch).
Here are the 2020 Draft pools and bonus values

calsnowskier · Apr 4, 2020

The draft is pretty much totally fucked this year. I hope they find some way of compensating teams for their lost draft capital. If the draft is canceled, will we then lose our position? How about the comp picks for bum and smith?

LHG · Apr 4, 2020

calsnowskier said:
The draft is pretty much totally fucked this year. I hope they find some way of compensating teams for their lost draft capital. If the draft is canceled, will we then lose our position? How about the comp picks for bum and smith?

I think that those questions won't be answered until the draft gets canceled. With the exception the NCAA has granted student athletes, and the modified draft, there are going to be a lot more talent sticking around college for next year. Guys who don't get drafted aren't going to feel much pressure to sign as non-drafted free agents nor settle for 8th round slot money if they feel that they could get more in the 2021 draft. The flip side, of course, is that there will be more guys to pick from in the 2021 draft so amateurs players drafted this year (if held) will need to weigh that in their decisions.

Also, here is some more information about the decisions made about the 2020 draft - MLB, MLBPA Agree On Framework Of 2020 Draft

LHG · Apr 5, 2020

According to this article (What Major League Baseball insiders think about draft changes and long-term ramifications), the MLB draft is as much as a sure can be this year, but in mid to late July.
I read the following paragraph that confirmed what I was beginning to think MLB would do to push their minor league agenda:
"MLB's plan to shear the minor leagues by 42 teams was in motion prior to the pandemic, but every source agreed that the league appears to be leveraging the situation to get its desired outcome. "I absolutely believe MLB is going to use this as their excuse to go forward with their contraction plans," one talent evaluator said."
Scouts have also been given the go ahead to start work in preparation - MLB relaxes scouting restrictions ahead of draft

calsnowskier · Apr 5, 2020

Maybe this is the year to actually ABOLISH the draft all together. Give each team a pool amount rather than a draft position. However, their draft pool would be based on their virtual draft position. Further, the first $x that each player signs for does not count towards the pool.

Use the international signing period as the blueprint.

For example...

The team that would have had the #1 pick would have a base of $20M.
The second worst team would have a pool of $18M.
The third worst team would have $16.5M.
Etc etc etc

Further, signing or losing RFAs would add or subtract to/from your pool.

Trading of funds would be allowed, but in limited ways. Maybe only in 500k increments, or only down to a certain threshold.

This would entirely eliminate the concept of “rounds” and teams could focus on either lots of loot picks or just a couple big tickets.

LHG · Apr 5, 2020

calsnowskier said:
Maybe this is the year to actually ABOLISH the draft all together. Give each team a pool amount rather than a draft position. However, their draft pool would be based on their virtual draft position. Further, the first $x that each player signs for does not count towards the pool.

Use the international signing period as the blueprint.

For example...

The team that would have had the #1 pick would have a base of $20M.
The second worst team would have a pool of $18M.
The third worst team would have $16.5M.
Etc etc etc

Further, signing or losing RFAs would add or subtract to/from your pool.

Trading of funds would be allowed, but in limited ways. Maybe only in 500k increments, or only down to a certain threshold.

This would entirely eliminate the concept of “rounds” and teams could focus on either lots of loot picks or just a couple big tickets.

I think if this would help MLB further push their reforms on minor league baseball then they would be all for it.

By the way, the international signing period start date has been pushed from July 1st to January 2021.

SFGRTB · Apr 5, 2020

LHG said:
I know its a bit early to talk about the draft, considering there is a possibility that there will be no draft. But this article came out today so I thought I'd post it for when (if) the draft is held this year. Talk is that, if held, it will be 5 to 10 rounds. (Side note - I do wonder how that will affect the lower levels of the minor leagues. Do the Giants just not release as many guys at the end of whatever spring training is held? Do they only field one AZL team? No AZL teams? It the season plays out, and I really hope it does, how all this goes will be interesting to watch).
Here are the 2020 Draft pools and bonus values

There will be a record number of undrafted free agent signing this year.

SFGRTB · Apr 5, 2020

LHG said:
I think that those questions won't be answered until the draft gets canceled. With the exception the NCAA has granted student athletes, and the modified draft, there are going to be a lot more talent sticking around college for next year. Guys who don't get drafted aren't going to feel much pressure to sign as non-drafted free agents nor settle for 8th round slot money if they feel that they could get more in the 2021 draft. The flip side, of course, is that there will be more guys to pick from in the 2021 draft so amateurs players drafted this year (if held) will need to weigh that in their decisions.

Also, here is some more information about the decisions made about the 2020 draft - MLB, MLBPA Agree On Framework Of 2020 Draft

Yeah with how the college rules are, this is going to mess with the draft for the new few years.

A LOT of high school players are going choose to go to college next year, and A LOT of college players are going to go back to college. All those high schoolers who instead go to college are locked for the next 3 years. We may see a number of them go to JC's, maybe this even opens the doors for players to play international and come back in a year? It's so unprecedented in baseball, that I don't know how it would work. Maybe they're not eligible.

Basically everything I've read about this draft is it's great for the owner's pockets and absolute garbage for the amateur players.

LHG · Apr 5, 2020

SFGRTB said:
There will be a record number of undrafted free agent signing this year.

Not so sure about that. Many guys aren't going to take the 10k to sign as an ndfa if they think they'd have a better chance of signing as a late round pick in 2021 (if they go back to a 30 round draft. If MLB decides to permanently make it only 10 rounds, then that is a different story).

LHG · Apr 5, 2020

SFGRTB said:
Yeah with how the college rules are, this is going to mess with the draft for the new few years.

A LOT of high school players are going choose to go to college next year, and A LOT of college players are going to go back to college. All those high schoolers who instead go to college are locked for the next 3 years. We may see a number of them go to JC's, maybe this even opens the doors for players to play international and come back in a year? It's so unprecedented in baseball, that I don't know how it would work. Maybe they're not eligible.

Basically everything I've read about this draft is it's great for the owner's pockets and absolute garbage for the amateur players.

There will be a lot more higher quality players going to Division II schools as well. May not right away but quite a few of them will be bouncebacks. They don't get the playing time that they thought they'd get at the DI school that recruited them so they move to a DII (or maybe even a lower level DI school) knowing they'll get the playing time that they desire.

SFGRTB · Apr 5, 2020

LHG said:
Not so sure about that. Many guys aren't going to take the 10k to sign as an ndfa if they think they'd have a better chance of signing as a late round pick in 2021 (if they go back to a 30 round draft. If MLB decides to permanently make it only 10 rounds, then that is a different story).

I agree, but just by sheer quantity of available players, and teams needing some players to round out a roster, there's bound to be the most ever. But yes, no high school player out there is going to settle for $10k this year. It will still mostly be college seniors.

LHG · Apr 5, 2020

SFGRTB said:
I agree, but just by sheer quantity of available players, and teams needing some players to round out a roster, there's bound to be the most ever. But yes, no high school player out there is going to settle for $10k this year. It will still mostly be college seniors.

Even those guys have the option to return to college for one more year. Some won't but some may find that getting their bachelor's finished is worth it. The NCAA has ruled that scholarships for returning seniors won't count toward team equivalencies so schools with lots of money will have the chance to give them scholarship without being penalized if they've allocated all their countable aid to incoming and non-seniors.
Additionally, if MLB is going to use this to push hard on contracting MiLB leagues, they will lean on MLB teams to limit how many ndfas they sign. It will still probably be more than normal this year but I expect it won't be by much. If the commissioner's office tells owners that they want to eliminate short season leagues through this, there may not be any ndfas signed at all.

LHG · May 9, 2020

Looks like the draft will still happen, but it has been reduced to just 5 rounds now - MLB To Hold 5-Round Draft

calsnowskier · May 9, 2020

With no baseball being played this year, it is going to be HARD to have any idea who you are getting. Bad year to have have 2 bonus picks.

LHG · May 9, 2020

calsnowskier said:
With no baseball being played this year, it is going to be HARD to have any idea who you are getting. Bad year to have have 2 bonus picks.

Do you mean from the high school/collegiate season or the professional season? Sure, the collegiate season got cancelled early, but most college teams got about a month and a half of games in. Maybe not enough to get a good evaluation on many players but I would think it is enough to do a 5 round draft.
But yes, agree that this is an awful year to have 2 bonus picks. I really hope that 2021 has a much more normal year for baseball and that MLB allows teams to have what they could have gotten during the 2020 draft (i.e. 2 bonus picks, draft order, etc).

calsnowskier · May 9, 2020

That assumes there is no Mlb baseball this year.

if there is no Mlb in ‘20 (which I highly doubt), I don’t think redoing the ‘20 order in ‘21 is the fairest way to do it. Maybe take the overall record of ‘15-‘19? I think coincidentally that helps the Giants, but that is truly not the reason behind this thought (and the thought it not full fleshed out, so it may very well be a bad idea).

LHG · May 9, 2020

calsnowskier said:
That assumes there is no Mlb baseball this year.

if there is no Mlb in ‘20 (which I highly doubt), I don’t think redoing the ‘20 order in ‘21 is the fairest way to do it. Maybe take the overall record of ‘15-‘19? I think coincidentally that helps the Giants, but that is truly not the reason behind this thought (and the thought it not full fleshed out, so it may very well be a bad idea).

Personally, I think it is the fairest method to use 2019 records because its the most recent record of how teams fared, if the 2020 season doesn't play out (and I really hope something of the 2020 season gets played). Maybe taking the average of the past 5 seasons could be a good measurement, but I think it could also help some good teams pick higher than some poor teams (but I haven't researched to see if that really is the case).

calsnowskier · May 9, 2020

LHG said:
Personally, I think it is the fairest method to use 2019 records because its the most recent record of how teams fared, if the 2020 season doesn't play out (and I really hope something of the 2020 season gets played). Maybe taking the average of the past 5 seasons could be a good measurement, but I think it could also help some good teams pick higher than some poor teams (but I haven't researched to see if that really is the case).

The 5-year idea is far from an idea I would fight to defend. But simply redoing the ‘19 order means that Detroit get 2 TOP prospects for 1 years muck. If they happen to earn it for being bad longer (which they probably do, actually), so be it. But to just arbitrarily give 2 great draft positions for 1 crap year just feels wrong to me.

SFGRTB · May 11, 2020

calsnowskier said:
With no baseball being played this year, it is going to be HARD to have any idea who you are getting. Bad year to have have 2 bonus picks.

Hard to find a viable strategy in five rounds, but maybe what the Giants could do is draft a guy who is totally unsignable with their 68th and/or 69th picks, and get compensated for it next year.

But yes, it does seems like having more comp picks in this draft is not ideal.

SFGRTB · May 26, 2020

Hey, the draft is in a couple of weeks! Something to discuss, sorta.

Dates: June 10 at 4:00 pm PT, round 1. June 11 at 2:00 pm PT, rounds 2-5.

So far the Giants have been linked mostly to Mick Abel, a high school RHP, and Tyler Soderstrom, a high school catcher, with their first pick.

2020 Draft

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