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Statistical Misunderstandings That Analysts/Announcers/Fans Perpetuate

richig07

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I'll start with my biggest pet peeve by a mile and use it in a way that used to drive me crazy with my own team as an example.

For instance, in the unwatchable post-Lovie/Trestman era of 2013 and 2014 when the Bears went 8-8 and 5-11. You would hear this in every broadcast.

"You know, people talk about how the Bears have fallen off. But look at this, when the Bears hand the ball off to Matt Forte 20+ times over the past two seasons they're (insert really good record here) and when they hand it to him less than that? They're (insert really bad record here)!!! Also, look at how many carries had under Lovie Smith in 2010 through 2012!!! And what do you know? They were 10 games over .500 during that time. Amazing! Hand the ball off to Matt Forte! It's not that hard!"

Oh my gosh, you mean to tell me that when you're losing in the 2nd half of football games (often by multiple scores during that time) that you don't run the ball near as much as when you are winning!? Weird! That's like... so weird. I wonder why that could be happening. Hmm... It's almost like when you're losing in the 4th quarter that there's a REASON you have to pass. Crazy that all of these teams are doing that.

I swear, you see this stat every week with one team or another. "When they win, they run a lot and when they lose? They don't run a lot. This clearly = run more and we should not examine any other possible reasons as to why we've been saying this about football teams for decades."

I'll take "conflating correlation with causation" for 500, Alex. Holy shit. When will they figure this out?
 

PEOPLESCHICKEN

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Nice.

One that drives me crazy, especially in the NBA and MLB:

Yes, ____ is 15 games out of fist, but since June 13th they have the best record in baseball

or in the NBA:
Average points/48 min

Guy averages 8.0 pig but per 40 mins it's inflated
 

Mofo

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Still doesn’t beat:

quote-at-the-end-of-the-game-the-team-with-the-most-points-on-the-board-is-going-to-win-john-madden-35-70-87.jpg
 

PEOPLESCHICKEN

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Remember hearing this one earlier in the fall:

"When VA Tech leads at the half they are 24-12" Uh yea, because most of the time when they are leading at the half they have more points and the probability of them having more points at the end of the 2nd half is higher.
 

PEOPLESCHICKEN

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When @broncosmitty is given a 48oz of Colt .45 he is more likely to steal from his blind granny then when sober.

Thats next generation stats my friends
 

fastforward

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"You want more of your home games towards the end of the regular season".

Statistically teams win a higher % of home games in the 1st 8 weeks than they do in the last 8 weeks.
 

RobToxin

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Nothing will ever top this nugget of knowledge:

 

Rock Strongo

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I'll start with my biggest pet peeve by a mile and use it in a way that used to drive me crazy with my own team as an example.

For instance, in the unwatchable post-Lovie/Trestman era of 2013 and 2014 when the Bears went 8-8 and 5-11. You would hear this in every broadcast.

"You know, people talk about how the Bears have fallen off. But look at this, when the Bears hand the ball off to Matt Forte 20+ times over the past two seasons they're (insert really good record here) and when they hand it to him less than that? They're (insert really bad record here)!!! Also, look at how many carries had under Lovie Smith in 2010 through 2012!!! And what do you know? They were 10 games over .500 during that time. Amazing! Hand the ball off to Matt Forte! It's not that hard!"

Oh my gosh, you mean to tell me that when you're losing in the 2nd half of football games (often by multiple scores during that time) that you don't run the ball near as much as when you are winning!? Weird! That's like... so weird. I wonder why that could be happening. Hmm... It's almost like when you're losing in the 4th quarter that there's a REASON you have to pass. Crazy that all of these teams are doing that.

I swear, you see this stat every week with one team or another. "When they win, they run a lot and when they lose? They don't run a lot. This clearly = run more and we should not examine any other possible reasons as to why we've been saying this about football teams for decades."

I'll take "conflating correlation with causation" for 500, Alex. Holy shit. When will they figure this out?
when youre running

youre winning

duhhh
 

mrschaney

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When quarterbacks are having a great game, and then they bring up said quarterback's playoff stats and records.
 

richig07

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Still doesn’t beat:

quote-at-the-end-of-the-game-the-team-with-the-most-points-on-the-board-is-going-to-win-john-madden-35-70-87.jpg

On a Monday Night game between the Bears and Cowboys in 2007. Terrance Newman jumped in front of a Rex Grossman throw towards the sideline and took it back for six.

I'll never forget Madden's analysis: "Yeah, he jumped in front of it, caught it and ran it back into his own end zone. It's not Romo and the offense. But that's going to count as six points, Al.".... Al Michaels: "And so it will, John".

Lol
 

SteelersPride

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How about cumulative stats for a season. When some players have a handful of blowup games. Then a bunch of mediocre and duds . But all put together , they look much better than they are.
 
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