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Texas Rangers 2019-2020 Offseason Thread

DTC

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I think Fangraphs has some fundamental flaws in how they make projections. When you start putting data into formulas it is only as good as the theory behind the formula.

They did project the Twins to win 83 games last year and they ended up winning 101.
There’s always hope lol
 

Kelleyman

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I think Fangraphs has some fundamental flaws in how they make projections. When you start putting data into formulas it is only as good as the theory behind the formula.
In our better years Fangraphs would regularly shoot us down in their ratings
 

WastinSomeTime

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I think Fangraphs has some fundamental flaws in how they make projections. When you start putting data into formulas it is only as good as the theory behind the formula.
I am sure they it was incorrect on projections on the Rangers and Angels last year. I am sure the Rangers were picked dead last in the AL West.
 

saddles

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In our better years Fangraphs would regularly shoot us down in their ratings
Yeah, their information is a tool to use, as long as you realize they have definite flaws. Kind of like some of the newer analytics that are being touted now, a lot of what they have to offer is more theory than fact.
 

fordman84

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In our better years Fangraphs would regularly shoot us down in their ratings
It's always something. not too long ago the Rangers were dismissed because our run diff wasn't high enough. Then we went to back to back world series and I don't hear too much about "who cares if they are in first, their run differential is too low to win in the playoffs".



I agree we didn't do anything earth shattering to improve our lineup. However, I don't think we have the rotation to make a deep playoff run so no use busting the bank this offseason. There will be zero excuses next offseason for not making any moves. Choo will be gone, Odor will be a 2/27M contract (counting the buyout money), Kluber can be gone if he sucks, and baseball reference puts our projected payroll (including Arb estimates) at $117M. We should be able to spend at least $50M next season to get our payroll to a respectable number. $170M shouldn't be unheard of for D/FW considering they can now pack the stadium for every home game if they put a good product on the field.
 
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saddles

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As best as I can determine Fangraphs predicted us winning

83 in 2017
77 in 2018
78 in 2019

We actually won

78 in 2017
67 in 2018
78 in 2019

So, all in all they have guessed that we would win a total of 15 games more than we actually did over the past 3 seasons.

I do remember when they usually missed the other way.
 

saddles

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It's always something. not too long ago the Rangers were dismissed because our run diff wasn't high enough. Then we went to back to back world series and I don't hear too much about "who cares if they are in first, their run differential is too low to win in the playoffs".



I agree we didn't do anything earth shattering to improve our lineup. However, I don't think we have the rotation to make a deep playoff run so no use busting the bank this offseason. There will be zero excuses next offseason for not making any moves. Choo will be gone, Odor will be a 2/27M contract (counting the buyout money), Kluber can be gone if he sucks, and baseball reference puts our projected payroll (including Arb estimates) at $117M. We should be able to spend at least $50M next season to get our payroll to a respectable number. $170M shouldn't be unheard of for D/FW considering they can now pack the stadium for every home game if they put a good product on the field.
There wasn't any excuses this offseason either.
 

fordman84

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There wasn't any excuses this offseason either.
There were no good ones, at least. However, Odor is still unmoveable at his rate, Choo is still on the books, Fielder is still on the books, and even without a big boost to the lineup we are 13th in payroll right now. I think we should be top 10 at least, but a few million wouldn't bring in an impact player.

Next season we lose dead weight and can shed some contracts. We should do that.
 

Nightcrawler

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There were no good ones, at least. However, Odor is still unmoveable at his rate, Choo is still on the books, Fielder is still on the books, and even without a big boost to the lineup we are 13th in payroll right now. I think we should be top 10 at least, but a few million wouldn't bring in an impact player.

Next season we lose dead weight and can shed some contracts. We should do that.

is Odor moveable next year?

some people on this board think we will be saddled with him until 2024, but I know his last year is a team option and I can’t imagine JD actually picking it up.
 

DTC

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saddles

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saddles

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DTC

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All I could find for last year was this.

Depth Charts » Projected Standings | FanGraphs Baseball

I know they give the ZIPS protections, but it seems they have another projection as well. I found some projections mentioning ZIPS and some that didn't. Does ZIPS belong to them or is it from another party?

I think that is what every team actually finished at last year. I believe that is updated every day during the season for predicting the end result.
 

saddles

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I think that is what every team actually finished at last year. I believe that is updated every day during the season for predicting the end result.
You will see that some of the winning percentages are off a good bit. The left is how they actually finished and the right are the winning percentages predicted earlier.
 
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DTC

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You will see that some of the winning percentages are off a good bit. The left is how they actually finished and the right are the winning percentages predicted earlier.

thank you!
I kept viewing it and couldn’t figure it out
 

saddles

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saddles

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scotsman1948

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my level of confidence in this one is :


Pretty low
Mine too. JD will figure to miss out again and apparently we and the Marlins are the finalists for Pedro Strop and we will probably get beat out by them.
JD has developed a knack for getting beat out
 
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