California Creme Puffs
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The way I look at it
1. We need starting pitching
2. It's only (can't believe I'm using that word) a 5 year/$118 million deal
I'd rather have Wheeler at 5 years than Cole or Strasburg at 7 or 8 and $200+ million. You and I know that giving starting pitchers long-term contracts is not a great idea, but in this day and age, it's a necessity if you want to get quality pitchers, so I'd rather minimize the length and money if possible when getting top of the line guys.
He's definitely followed a strange career trajectory, and injuries for a guy who's already had Tommy John and throws 97 is a real and legitimate concern. But he's been healthy the last two years, and in those two healthy seasons, he's been pretty damn good. Among pitchers who've pitched 250 innings from 2018-2019, he's 10th out of 90 qualified pitchers in WAR, 12th in innings pitched, 15th in FIP (21st in FIP-), and 23rd in ERA (though he was 42nd in ERA-, meaning he was probably helped by his ballpark and pitching in the NL). He's also a pretty impressive 10th out of those 90 pitchers in Soft% (the percentage of balls that are hit off him that have a low exit velocity).
My point is, if he's healthy, I don't think he's going to be another Arrieta (who was a gamble and was already showing lots of signs of regression) even with CBP's short right field. (If you're curious, Arrieta is one of those 90 pitchers who threw 250 innings from 2018-2019. He is 73rd in WAR, 51st in IP, 71st in FIP, 70th in FIP-, 62nd in ERA, 63rd in ERA-, and 51st in Soft%)
I think Wheeler is a good signing. And honestly, Klentak has done a fine job of landing free agent talent. We'll call Carlos Santana a wash bordering on decent/good signing, Arrieta didn't work out, McCutchen (IMO) is a good signing, Harper (IMO) is a good signing. The issue is his ability (or lack thereof) to get talent from the margins. Anybody can sign Bryce Harper to a $330 million contract- he was the only superstar left on the market for a team that needed talent and they gave him the richest contract in sports history up until that point. It's a lot harder to get 3 and 4 WAR players for $800,000 on rookie contracts. If you notice, the Braves and Nats seemingly do this every year while only occasionally dabbling in big free agent signings (@Chewbaccer can tell you all about their FO's lack of balls when it comes to the free agent market).
I will say that Klentak did do a great job with the Realmuto trade (regardless of how Sixto Sanchez turns out). He needs to make more of those moves.
