Offseason transactions

Looks like the boards have been dead for several months. I haven't been here in a while but always appreciated thoughts and opinions from you guys. So far, we signed Moose to a four year deal for 64 million. That will put us paying him into his mid-thirties...not a big fan of that. It also appears that we're serious contenders for Zach Wheeler. At 29 yrs old, he ended the season with a 3.96 ERA which is up from his 3.31 the previous year. I hope that they don't over pay for him but that seems to be the trend here. Still, a rotation with Castillo, Wheeler, Bauer, Gray, and DeSclafani would be VERY solid. Any thoughts on who we should or might pursue?

That move didn't really make sense to me. They could have kept Scooter for a lot less. And I believe the production would be about the same. For some reason the front office didn't want Scooter. Oh well what do I know.

So much for the Reds "rebuild"...IMO, it wasn't a rebuild in terms I understood, but at least they appear to be trying to purchase better short term (and more expensive) options. I do understand it's a business, but maybe now they've learned that a bad product in Cincinnati doesn't sell, especially with yearly tickets increases. The Reds farm will never produce more, without replacing the minor league staff and philosophy that hasn't produced a homegrown OF that could hit better than .260 in back to back 500 at bat MLB seasons in decades.

So, I'm more optimistic this year than any of the previous 5, even though I still have little faith in the Reds ability to complete a value trade, or develop minor league skills into more than the kids arrive with. They signed others FA talent. It works better than trying to put their rule 5's and washed up cast offs in the daily lineup.

Reds defense is likely to be ugly, but they have more legitimate bats now, with Castellanos and Moustakas. Suarez, IF his right shoulder surgery doesn't impair his ability to throw from 3b, or drive a frequent HR can be a monster. The recently reported "crowded" OF is overblown, when you consider most of those names have very limited success (Schebler), small sample size (Aquino, Ervin, Winker, VanMeter) and/or uncertainty (Akiyama). Votto looks like he's really declined, but with his contract, I think the best that can be had is that he can be successful in a lesser role- this requires more power in the lineup to make up for his loss- something Mustakas and Castellanos (and possibly Aquino) provide. They let Peraza walk, and he landed in Boston... Interested to see if he hits better there. Galvis had a career year, but maybe the Reds don't buy into it, because they are at least rumored to be looking at other SS options... a repeat of his 2019 would be a success, IMO.

I'm glad they didn't (so far) trade Senzel until he has at least a chance at a full season without an injury. His stats weren't overly impressive, albeit shortened by injury, but are similar ( or better) in many respects than Rose or Larkin's rookie years. He's a #1 pick that I would like to see his opportunity gained here, rather than swapped for someone else just to see him develop potential into production in the lowest salary years of his career elsewhere. His trade value is too low right now for what the Reds have invested in him, to get back value alone- and he's got too much potential to throw in with 2-3 others for a name with so many more zeros in the paycheck.

Miley gives the Reds a quality lefty in the starting rotation. He came cheaper than Wheeler, and may have better small park stuff. I'm biased for lefty SP, because there are not many playoff teams without a decent lefty starter.

Bauer is a total wildcard, with one good year swallowed by 3 others with a bloated ERA pitching in bigger parks than GABP, so there is high ( 4.80 + ) ERA probability there.... he does have the arm- the control and the head are TBD.

As long as Castillo is healthy and maintains control, he's an ace. Sonny Gray may be working on guile, but he got lots of outs and a lot more strikeouts than I expected after he rediscovered his breaking ball. Desclafani will never be a top dog, but if healthy, he can be one of the best 5th starters in the NL. Strop is an experienced bullpen arm that has closed in a small park for a winning team-not something any other Reds bullpen pitcher can say.... Iglesias has always had the stuff to start, but now may actually be on a team where a closer matters. Lorenzen is an asset that needs to prioritize being a pitcher first-especially since the Reds DO have legit outfield bats- not sure he or the Reds buy into that yet. Garrett and Reed (injury) aren't enough lefties in the pen with only 1 in the rotation, but there is time, and lots of low-cost chance options looking for work, before opening day.

If Suarez and the rest can get/be healthy I think the Reds can win 86 games as is. That may go farther than you think unless the rest of the NLC improves. Brewers, Cardinals and Brewers had more than the Reds to start with, but have all subtracted talent this off season, so far... The Pirates have practically dismantled and are a lock to lose 100 this year.

Redsfan1507 said:

Brewers, Cardinals and Brewers

Click to expand...

S/B Brewers Cardinals and CUBS...

The rebuild is / was a line of horse shit. What the Reds did this winter could have been done 3 years ago and why it wasn't speaks to the front office that got summarily booted out and replaced by people who give a damn about winning.

The pitching they got last year should have been gotten 3 years ago instead of allowing Price to try to fix something with people who couldn't lead the Bats to a .500 season.

This year's team is a bit of fool's gold but it's competitive. There's no speed, marginal OF defense and some mediocre catching. The bullpen will be better because the rotation is better.

Moose will play 3B for a month and I think VanMeter will hang around to play 2B untll Suarez has some ABs.

Senzel will have an extended spring. I can see them sending him to Louisville to play SS because until the Garcia kid is ready, they have Pud Galvis and Kyle Farmer, who is the asset from the Puig-Wood deal.

Since this team is snake bitten, Winker would naturally not get out without a sore wrist. He will share LF with Phlerv ... and Aquino will go to the minors. Oh well.

I like this pitching for the reasons that metrics likes it. Miley is the best No. 5 they could get on short notice.

Castellanos is an assassin at the plate. He might hit .540 in the first 90 games. Then he will become another pretty good hitter.

Reds need to slow Votto down. I can see several guys backing him up but I'd personally try Senzel there if he can't find a position. He has to play, not sit on the bench.

Interesting guys on the fringe -- Schebler, Dietrich and Aquino.

Not sure what to expect from Shogo. I think he will be all right. This is a division the Reds can win, if they beat the people they play the most.

Division: The Cubs are worse than we think, the Brewers are better than we think and the Cardinals sold their souls to Satan. The Pirates are a mess.

LA will win 111 games this year. San Diego is the most improved team in the league.

Cincy can win 95 games, most likely high 80s.