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Odds to win the SB

Did Vegas get this right?

  • About right

    Votes: 6 31.6%
  • Way off

    Votes: 10 52.6%
  • Pretty close except...

    Votes: 1 5.3%
  • Who has the best potato salad in LV?

    Votes: 2 10.5%

  • Total voters
    19

Across The Field

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No, not right now when a deal can be put off and you don't now that he will be

Both QBs are Matthew Stafford. He was not a great QB talent in year one and then much worse from a talent perspective the next. Nothing happens in a vacuum. He was the same Matthew Stafford.
That's an odd comparison. Stafford wasn't close to either QB as a rookie. We'll see what happens with Baker. Again, if he hasn't improved after year 3, I won't be trumpeting the idea of him getting a massive contract.
 

dtgold88

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And I've always deferred on certain aspects to those that watched the player more as you obviously have with Mayfield and that is part of the reason why I didn't directly address those aspects.

My issue with stats is that it's human nature to just pick and choose the ones people want and the ones that frame their "argument" better. I'm not saying stats aren't important or a way to compare different players, I'm just saying that they aren't the be all/end all and can be misleading and that sometime you have to look behind the stats and look at whata player is asked to do and what is going on around them. My point on the "fantasy QB" wasn't an insult it was because I think with that offense he WILL put up big fantasy numbers, while I'm still not sure how good he really is going to be. I think any competent QB would put up big numbers in that offense this year. That doesn't mean I think he is not good nor better than competent. I'll give you an example. I think Brees is an All Time great QB, but there were many years when he was a better fantasy QB than "real" QB. That is not an insult to Brees but rather a point about the type of offense he ran a few years back. He threw the ball constantly. The opposite holds true for a guy like Aikman. If you look at "counting" passing stats alone Aikman was not better than average in those areas. But he was a fantastic QB that just wasn't asked to do too much 75% of the time. But when he needed to and when it mattered most he was indeed great.
I think those comments are more than fair, but I'm also one who thinks the QB makes the WRs. Not the other way around.

Not an accident no matter who they get to play WR in GB, NO, NE, Indy, Pittsburgh the last half decade to a decade the offense never skips a beat when the QB is healthy.

Loved Aikman and agree.....but that was a different era AND he had one of the best running games of all time.
 

jarntt

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The problem here is that Aikman wasn't even that good from a qualitative standpoint in a lot of ways. No question he was a fantastic playoff QB. That doesn't mean he deserved to be a HOFer. Since we're comparing QBs, let's look at these two (playoff stats only):

QB A: 63.7 comp%, 7.7 YPA, 23 TD, 17 INT, 88.3 rating
QB B: 56.5 comp%, 7.2 YPA, 25 TD, 10 INT, 88.6 rating

QB A is Aikman. QB B is Joe Flacco, and he's not going to sniff the HOF.
Era is about as important to passing stats as anything (Dak has a better QB rating than Montana) and Flacco had one of the most amazing playoff runs in history. i'm not a fan at all, but what do Terry Bradshaw's numbers look like?
 

jarntt

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That's an odd comparison. Stafford wasn't close to either QB as a rookie. We'll see what happens with Baker. Again, if he hasn't improved after year 3, I won't be trumpeting the idea of him getting a massive contract.
Then you will be replacing him because those are the only two options. When Baker is due he likely gets $40M.
 

Rowdy

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Winston really wasn't that horrible last year. It would've been a different story if they even had the slightest semblance of a running game. Ron Jones was a total waste of a pick, so it wouldn't shock me to see them grab one of the more bellcow types this year early on.

From week 9 (first game post-Hue Jackson/Todd Haley) on, Baker's rating under pressure was over 100. I know you call it "cherry-picking", but it's undeniable how different the team was once those two were gone:


Under Jackson/Haley in the first 8 games, the Browns were 29th in offensive DVOA in the NFL. Over the final 8 games, they were 1st. It's remarkable how dramatically they improved after Hue, going from one of the worst offenses in the NFL to one of the best. These aren't minor improvements; it was basically a brand new offense across the board.

I’d curb your enthusiasm a little. Could it be kitchens ran a little different O than hue/hailey, and it caught the nfl off guard? If so teams will be a little more prepared this season. I do like mayfield though. Could turn out to be great, and this time last season I was saying the browns would probably win half their games. After many years of multiple high first round draft picks you have no choice but to put a team together. Looks like an awesome team on paper
 

Shanemansj13

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Comparing stats from different eras is pointless imo. Honestly, some of the comparison has to be eye test and accomplishments do matter more when comparing from different eras (for QB's). I hate that but it's the way it is. That being said, Bradshaw isn't close to my top 10 QB's of all time and Marino is top 5 so...like I said comparing QB's is pointless from different eras.

Looking at Mayfield's rookie year I would compare him to Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers mix. That is a weird comparison but it's just my opinion after seeing all 3 players play.

Favre was a gunslinger and paid for it with INT's at times. I think Mayfield takes a lot of risks but from what I have seen not the point Favre did in limited time and Mayfield should only improve on his decision-making.
I also think Mayfield is very accurate though like Aaron Rodgers. 64% is pretty high for starting off slow like he did in his rookie year. I think he can be close to 67-68% this upcoming year. This stat has blown up over the eras bc you have RB's that have become pass-catchers and different trends in offenses we didn't use to see. That can definitely raise comp pct but you rarely see guys with 68-70% regardless. Brees seems to always be up there. One of the most accurate QB's of all-time.
 

Across The Field

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I’d curb your enthusiasm a little. Could it be kitchens ran a little different O than hue/hailey, and it caught the nfl off guard? If so teams will be a little more prepared this season. I do like mayfield though. Could turn out to be great, and this time last season I was saying the browns would probably win half their games. After many years of multiple high first round draft picks you have no choice but to put a team together. Looks like an awesome team on paper
We don't have a single player on our roster drafted in the 1st round before 2017, and one of our 2017 guys is already gone, so it wasn't that. It was Dorsey coming in and in one year gutting the roster and rebuilding it.

It isn't like Kitchens ran some off the wall offense, either. He put an enormous emphasis on protecting Baker and, in general, improving the OL play, and it showed tremendously. It also helps that Baker is really good about getting rid of the ball when need be and making quick decisions.
 

Across The Field

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Then you will be replacing him because those are the only two options. When Baker is due he likely gets $40M.
It's very possible, but by then the cap will also probably have increased by another $15-20m or so, so it should be fine. That said, if he doesn't improve, I don't want to be paying him that kind of money. I'm confident that won't be the case, though.
 

Dr. Strangelove

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Lots can happen for sure but to me, the Falcons and Jags are too low. There are a few others that are questionable but possible. I don't understand the rationale for the Niners being so high. All due respect to their fans.
 

Across The Field

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Era is about as important to passing stats as anything (Dak has a better QB rating than Montana) and Flacco had one of the most amazing playoff runs in history. i'm not a fan at all, but what do Terry Bradshaw's numbers look like?
Bradshaw's numbers are also not that impressive in the playoffs:

57.2 comp%, 30 TD, 26 INT, 83.0 rating. He wasn't a very good QB, but since he has all those rings, he's in the HOF

Also, Flacco's numbers overall are impressive even outside of that one season. His first two playoff stints were terrible - 1 TD vs. 6 INT in 08 and 09. In his next 4 combined, he had 24 TDs and 4 INT, and only 11 of those TDs came during his SB run. In his other 3 appearances (6 games) since his horrible first two playoff appearances, his rating is still very solid and he had 13 TD to 4 INT.
 

jarntt

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Bradshaw's numbers are also not that impressive in the playoffs:

57.2 comp%, 30 TD, 26 INT, 83.0 rating. He wasn't a very good QB, but since he has all those rings, he's in the HOF

Also, Flacco's numbers overall are impressive even outside of that one season. His first two playoff stints were terrible - 1 TD vs. 6 INT in 08 and 09. In his next 4 combined, he had 24 TDs and 4 INT, and only 11 of those TDs came during his SB run. In his other 3 appearances (6 games) since his horrible first two playoff appearances, his rating is still very solid and he had 13 TD to 4 INT.
You also can't cross eras. I'm not sure how old you are, but I get the feeling you weren't around to watch Football in the 70's (maybe not even the 90's), but it was a totally different animal in the 70's. I randomly picked 1975 and used the stats you just showed. 3 QBs had a rating over 90. Here is an even better one. 2 QBs had a comp % over 60%. 1 QB threw for 3,000 yards but only 14 games. Extrapolated over a 16 game season it would have been 3 and one would have thrown for 3,500. The most TDs was 25 and 4 QBs had over 20 Ints with the high being 28.
 

Across The Field

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You also can't cross eras. I'm not sure how old you are, but I get the feeling you weren't around to watch Football in the 70's (maybe not even the 90's), but it was a totally different animal in the 70's. I randomly picked 1975 and used the stats you just showed. 3 QBs had a rating over 90. Here is an even better one. 2 QBs had a comp % over 60%. 1 QB threw for 3,000 yards but only 14 games. Extrapolated over a 16 game season it would have been 3 and one would have thrown for 3,500. The most TDs was 25 and 4 QBs had over 20 Ints with the high being 28.
So qualitatively, many QBs weren't good. There's more focus on the position now, obviously, so they're becoming more disciplined and dominant, and more plentiful. It still doesn't excuse shitty play, or diminish better QBs of today.
 

PhillyGreen

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Browns #5 and Packers #6?

Someone has been smoking the crack pipe.
 

jarntt

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So qualitatively, many QBs weren't good. There's more focus on the position now, obviously, so they're becoming more disciplined and dominant, and more plentiful. It still doesn't excuse shitty play, or diminish better QBs of today.

You aren't following my point and do not appear to understand how the game has changed. It's not that the QBs weren't good at all or that there is more emphasis on the position today, it's that the game was different. Totally different. There was more bad weather games and crappy fields. There weren't all of these track meet domes and amazing turf fields. The defenders could beat the snot out of WRs and pass rushers could do the same to QBs. QBs got hammered basically every game. There was none of this 1 step rule and hitting above the knee and below the shoulder pads. The biggest thing was that the defenders were allowed contact with WRs downfield which made it very difficult to get open and was a huge change when they made that illegal. You keep talking about OL play. Picture every OL sucking and every QB beaten up. OL couldn't even extend their hands to block years back. Rumor had it that Deacon Jones would have had 30 sacks one year if the stat was kept.
 

Across The Field

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You aren't following my point and do not appear to understand how the game has changed. It's not that the QBs weren't good at all or that there is more emphasis on the position today, it's that the game was different. Totally different. There was more bad weather games and crappy fields. There weren't all of these track meet domes and amazing turf fields. The defenders could beat the snot out of WRs and pass rushers could do the same to QBs. QBs got hammered basically every game. There was none of this 1 step rule and hitting above the knee and below the shoulder pads. The biggest thing was that the defenders were allowed contact with WRs downfield which made it very difficult to get open and was a huge change when they made that illegal. You keep talking about OL play. Picture every OL sucking and every QB beaten up. OL couldn't even extend their hands to block years back. Rumor had it that Deacon Jones would have had 30 sacks one year if the stat was kept.
Okay.

So is your point still about Aikman? Because Deacon Jones' hayday was about 20-25 years before Aikman played.
 

PhillyGreen

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State your case against the Browns, other than saying "They're the Browns".

The Browns are not the 5th best team in the NFL. They are up and coming but getting ODB does not put them over the hump. I can see them winning their division but I do not see them going deep in the playoffs just yet. Their defense is just bad IMO.

I have the Rams, Chargers, Eagles, Cowboys and Texans better than them. Yes...I know the Rams have the same odds as the Browns....they should be higher IMO. I have them even with the Steelers.
 

jarntt

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Okay.

So is your point still about Aikman? Because Deacon Jones' hayday was about 20-25 years before Aikman played.
No, my point is about different eras and your incorrect comment
 

jarntt

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The Browns are not the 5th best team in the NFL. They are up and coming but getting ODB does not put them over the hump. I can see them winning their division but I do not see them going deep in the playoffs just yet. Their defense is just bad IMO.

I have the Rams, Chargers, Eagles, Cowboys and Texans better than them. Yes...I know the Rams have the same odds as the Browns....they should be higher IMO. I have them even with the Steelers.
I can't imagine anyone thinks the Browns are the 5th best team in the NFL including Browns fans and whomever made these odds. I think the schedule is very easy and that is part of what Vegas looks at. They also try to predict where the money will be bet and there was a lot of Browns hype after free agency which may have influenced the odds. I suspect by the time the season starts the odds for them will settle in at a more reasonable #
 
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