• Have something to say? Register Now! and be posting in minutes!

Odds to win the SB

Did Vegas get this right?

  • About right

    Votes: 6 31.6%
  • Way off

    Votes: 10 52.6%
  • Pretty close except...

    Votes: 1 5.3%
  • Who has the best potato salad in LV?

    Votes: 2 10.5%

  • Total voters
    19

dtgold88

Well-Known Member
31,840
7,478
533
Joined
Dec 25, 2018
Location
Cleveland, OH
Hoopla Cash
$ 341.36
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
Yes its possible, but I'd say it's more likely he does because Defenses will plan off of NFL game tapes rather than college tapes.
I'm not saying he'll regress as much as Dak did nor am I saying he won't rebound in year 3.
Fair, but I would think by his 3rd or 4th game they were planning off of NFL tape.....and he has more around him. In addition, he goes to camp as the #1.
 

dtgold88

Well-Known Member
31,840
7,478
533
Joined
Dec 25, 2018
Location
Cleveland, OH
Hoopla Cash
$ 341.36
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
Okay, I wouldn't go that far, but maybe I was just looking at it through a "great year" for a Browns QB lens. But he had like 30 TDs that year and I just remember him doing well in fantasy. If a Browns QB had put up those numbers consistently since then, I'm guessing Ben wouldn't hold the victory record in Cleveland for QBs, but I'll take your word for it, I ain't got no dog in the fight.
Take mine too. Not sure I'd call him trash, but I never had faith in him as a longterm answer.
 

dtgold88

Well-Known Member
31,840
7,478
533
Joined
Dec 25, 2018
Location
Cleveland, OH
Hoopla Cash
$ 341.36
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
It was frustrating because he had an incredibly talented offensive cast around him. 29 TD/19 INT, 56% comp. Cost us the playoffs with his horrible game against Cincinnati at the end. By Browns standards recently, yeah that was good.
The game I can never forget. 5 INTs in that one, right?
 

jarntt

Well-Known Member
33,881
12,245
1,033
Joined
Aug 19, 2013
Hoopla Cash
$ 1,000.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
Ya gotta love the Yosemite Sam-like name calling meltdown, too. Well done? All because someone disagrees with you and can refute your comments with logic, facts and reason.
Ughh...another online expert who apparently can see angry people just because someone disagrees with them and proves them wrong??? While completely ridiculous, the "meltdown" part was cute and the tell-tale comment from those that have no argument at all to make and try to save face and yet you took it to another level and followed it up with the bolded. Irony at it's best. :L

So you make a ridiculous assumption because you can't read accusing me of not being able to "man up and say my logic was faulty" because you failed to follow the simple point. I prove you 100% wrong and you don't man up and admit you were wrong and instead try to change the discussion. Sorry Dude, but that is why you are a moron.
 

jarntt

Well-Known Member
33,881
12,245
1,033
Joined
Aug 19, 2013
Hoopla Cash
$ 1,000.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
From week 9 (first game post-Hue Jackson/Todd Haley) on, Baker's rating under pressure was over 100. I know you call it "cherry-picking", but it's undeniable how different the team was once those two were gone:

Under Jackson/Haley in the first 8 games, the Browns were 29th in offensive DVOA in the NFL. Over the final 8 games, they were 1st. It's remarkable how dramatically they improved after Hue, going from one of the worst offenses in the NFL to one of the best. These aren't minor improvements; it was basically a brand new offense across the board.
Let me just highlight this one point. So 8 games is enough for Baker to get the benefit of the doubt from you after a major change, but for Dak you need to pretend it's mostly because of the schedule after he plays incredibly well after finally getting a decent receiver for 9 games? This is the point I'm making and have been for weeks. You can't have it both ways. It comes off as you just trying to justify your opinion and using stats that do it. This is exactly why I keep saying "cherry picking". I have no problem giving Mayfield credit for playing better just as I do the same with Dak.
 

dtgold88

Well-Known Member
31,840
7,478
533
Joined
Dec 25, 2018
Location
Cleveland, OH
Hoopla Cash
$ 341.36
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
Ughh...another online expert who apparently can see angry people just because someone disagrees with them and proves them wrong??? While completely ridiculous, the "meltdown" part was cute and the tell-tale comment from those that have no argument at all to make and try to save face and yet you took it to another level and followed it up with the bolded. Irony at it's best. :L

So you make a ridiculous assumption because you can't read accusing me of not being able to "man up and say my logic was faulty" because you failed to follow the simple point. I prove you 100% wrong and you don't man up and admit you were wrong and instead try to change the discussion. Sorry Dude, but that is why you are a moron.
jarntt to English - "ya got me and nailed it. I am "that guy" in a message board. Just not in me to admit my mistakes even when refuted with facts, logic and reason."

we do have adults talking about this rationally, though, so maybe wait on them before getting back into the discussion?
 

jarntt

Well-Known Member
33,881
12,245
1,033
Joined
Aug 19, 2013
Hoopla Cash
$ 1,000.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
jarntt to English - "ya got me and nailed it. I am "that guy" in a message board. Just not in me to admit my mistakes even when refuted with facts, logic and reason."

we do have adults talking about this rationally, though, so maybe wait on them before getting back into the discussion?
The proof is in the posts and in your passive aggressive attempts to avoid discussing it. You were wrong, proven wrong for exactly what you called someone else out for and now you not only can't admit it and you pretend it's others that are at fault here? Sorry dude, but that doesn't fly
 

jarntt

Well-Known Member
33,881
12,245
1,033
Joined
Aug 19, 2013
Hoopla Cash
$ 1,000.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
I put a G on each of the Jags and Falcons . 40-1 and 35-1 respectively . I think those are the 2 most "off" futures after analyzing it. Small bets that could pay big are fun
Decent choices, but not sure that's the best way to capitalize. So you get $40,000 if you hit, right?
That's a fun way to do it, but not the best way financially to bet because you can't possibly win both bets. Comes off about the same in winnings as betting 4 or 5 games starting with the same $2K and "letting it ride" each time.
 

dtgold88

Well-Known Member
31,840
7,478
533
Joined
Dec 25, 2018
Location
Cleveland, OH
Hoopla Cash
$ 341.36
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
The proof is in the posts and in your passive aggressive attempts to avoid discussing it. You were wrong, proven wrong for exactly what you called someone else out for and now you not only can't admit it and you pretend it's others that are at fault here? Sorry dude, but that doesn't fly
OK, so you are thinking Baker is not accurate, able to make quick decisions and doesn't have a strong arm, or are you saying those are not traits you'd look for in a top QB?

stay focused......I have never said anything to you about Dak before you brought him up with me.
 

Across The Field

Oaky Afterbirth
25,920
5,536
533
Joined
Apr 21, 2015
Hoopla Cash
$ 24,656.63
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
Let me just highlight this one point. So 8 games is enough for Baker to get the benefit of the doubt from you after a major change, but for Dak you need to pretend it's mostly because of the schedule after he plays incredibly well after finally getting a decent receiver for 9 games? This is the point I'm making and have been for weeks. You can't have it both ways. It comes off as you just trying to justify your opinion and using stats that do it. This is exactly why I keep saying "cherry picking". I have no problem giving Mayfield credit for playing better just as I do the same with Dak.
Here's the point that you're not acknowledging - If Dak was a rookie last year and put up his same rookie year numbers, I'd be saying he's looking like an extremely promising playmaker at the position and future elite QB who is already really good. However, we saw him go backwards the last 2 years in comparison to his rookie year. If in 2021, Baker was unable to improve on his rookie year numbers, I'd be just as skeptical about him. That's what this is all about.

I've said it repeatedly - this is a huge year for Dak. It looks like his OL will be healthy, Zeke is there and not facing some BS suspension, and he now has a stud WR who appeared to have a rejuvenated sense of motivation after getting traded from the cesspool in Oakland. This all circles back to my very first point - if he comes out this year and puts up the same numbers he did even last year, I still don't see how to pay the guy elite level money.
 

rmilia1

Well-Known Member
44,428
10,422
1,033
Joined
Aug 30, 2011
Location
iowa
Hoopla Cash
$ 86,060.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
Decent choices, but not sure that's the best way to capitalize. So you get $40,000 if you hit, right?
That's a fun way to do it, but not the best way financially to bet because you can't possibly win both bets. Comes off about the same in winnings as betting 4 or 5 games starting with the same $2K and "letting it ride" each time.
I do that too lol. My best sports are CBB and CFB but NFL i do ok in too
 

jarntt

Well-Known Member
33,881
12,245
1,033
Joined
Aug 19, 2013
Hoopla Cash
$ 1,000.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
OK, so you are thinking Baker is not accurate, able to make quick decisions and doesn't have a strong arm, or are you saying those are not traits you'd look for in a top QB?

stay focused......I have never said anything to you about Dak before you brought him up with me.
Nice attempt to deflect. I never brought those aspects up with Baker or even commented on those points other than to say in general that we will find out what he is in the next couple of years and that time will tell. I also didn't "bring up Dak" to you so where is that coming from?

Your turn and stay focused. Were you 100% wrong with your comment and are you now refusing to "man up" after erroneously accusing someone else to do so because you didn't comprehend what they said?
 

jarntt

Well-Known Member
33,881
12,245
1,033
Joined
Aug 19, 2013
Hoopla Cash
$ 1,000.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
Here's the point that you're not acknowledging - If Dak was a rookie last year and put up his same rookie year numbers, I'd be saying he's looking like an extremely promising playmaker at the position and future elite QB who is already really good. However, we saw him go backwards the last 2 years in comparison to his rookie year. If in 2021, Baker was unable to improve on his rookie year numbers, I'd be just as skeptical about him. That's what this is all about.

I've said it repeatedly - this is a huge year for Dak. It looks like his OL will be healthy, Zeke is there and not facing some BS suspension, and he now has a stud WR who appeared to have a rejuvenated sense of motivation after getting traded from the cesspool in Oakland. This all circles back to my very first point - if he comes out this year and puts up the same numbers he did even last year, I still don't see how to pay the guy elite level money.
When did I not acknowledge that? I said Dak had a horrible 2nd half of year 2 and first half of year 3 and explained over and over exactly why I felt he did. Then I refuted the point of using statistics alone to try and show he regressed by showing he is coming off his most prolific 9 game (almost 20% of his career) stretch from a statistical perspective. I don't go off of stats alone because nothing happens in a vacuum and they are oftentimes very misleading. This is the same as I would do for any player, team, etc and including Baker so I don't disagree with your use of him getting better after a major change, I just am pointing out you can't have it both ways. See my question that I asked another Browns fan that he didn't answer below.


Which QB is better? Both played 16 game seasons in same era.
Yards 5,000; Comp % 64; TD-Int: 40-16; Rating 97; YPA 7.6
Yards 4,900; Comp % 59; TD-Int: 20-17; Rating 79; YPA 6.8
 

dtgold88

Well-Known Member
31,840
7,478
533
Joined
Dec 25, 2018
Location
Cleveland, OH
Hoopla Cash
$ 341.36
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
Nice attempt to deflect. I never brought those aspects up with Baker or even commented on those points other than to say in general that we will find out what he is in the next couple of years and that time will tell. I also didn't "bring up Dak" to you so where is that coming from?

Your turn and stay focused. Were you 100% wrong with your comment and are you now refusing to "man up" after erroneously accusing someone else to do so because you didn't comprehend what they said?

I do think this comment was off base - But stats are for people that can't judge talent with their eyes and read box scores. I like him better as a fantasy QB right now than I do a real QB."

"My eyes" told me he was deadly accurate, made quick decisions and had a very strong arm.

Though I agree no way to know if he can repeat and improve on his rookie season before it is played. And never said otherwise.
 

dtgold88

Well-Known Member
31,840
7,478
533
Joined
Dec 25, 2018
Location
Cleveland, OH
Hoopla Cash
$ 341.36
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
When did I not acknowledge that? I said Dak had a horrible 2nd half of year 2 and first half of year 3 and explained over and over exactly why I felt he did. Then I refuted the point of using statistics alone to try and show he regressed by showing he is coming off his most prolific 9 game (almost 20% of his career) stretch from a statistical perspective. I don't go off of stats alone because nothing happens in a vacuum and they are oftentimes very misleading. This is the same as I would do for any player, team, etc and including Baker so I don't disagree with your use of him getting better after a major change, I just am pointing out you can't have it both ways. See my question that I asked another Browns fan that he didn't answer below.


Which QB is better? Both played 16 game seasons in same era.
Yards 5,000; Comp % 64; TD-Int: 40-16; Rating 97; YPA 7.6
Yards 4,900; Comp % 59; TD-Int: 20-17; Rating 79; YPA 6.8
the above season appears better.
 

Across The Field

Oaky Afterbirth
25,920
5,536
533
Joined
Apr 21, 2015
Hoopla Cash
$ 24,656.63
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
When did I not acknowledge that? I said Dak had a horrible 2nd half of year 2 and first half of year 3 and explained over and over exactly why I felt he did. Then I refuted the point of using statistics alone to try and show he regressed by showing he is coming off his most prolific 9 game (almost 20% of his career) stretch from a statistical perspective. I don't go off of stats alone because nothing happens in a vacuum and they are oftentimes very misleading. This is the same as I would do for any player, team, etc and including Baker so I don't disagree with your use of him getting better after a major change, I just am pointing out you can't have it both ways. See my question that I asked another Browns fan that he didn't answer below.


Which QB is better? Both played 16 game seasons in same era.
Yards 5,000; Comp % 64; TD-Int: 40-16; Rating 97; YPA 7.6
Yards 4,900; Comp % 59; TD-Int: 20-17; Rating 79; YPA 6.8
So you'd sign a QB for $30m knowing he's going to be overall average in most every statistical metric over the course of a season then?

I brought up PFF and DVOA metrics because they're basically statistics designed not to be misleading because they take into account essentially any sort of factor you'd want between the two. I hadn't looked up Dak in those metrics until yesterday, but he was actually in the lower half of the league from a performance standpoint.

Just get on with your point about comparing the two QBs.
 

jarntt

Well-Known Member
33,881
12,245
1,033
Joined
Aug 19, 2013
Hoopla Cash
$ 1,000.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
I do think this comment was off base - But stats are for people that can't judge talent with their eyes and read box scores. I like him better as a fantasy QB right now than I do a real QB."

"My eyes" told me he was deadly accurate, made quick decisions and had a very strong arm.

Though I agree no way to know if he can repeat and improve on his rookie season before it is played. And never said otherwise.
And I've always deferred on certain aspects to those that watched the player more as you obviously have with Mayfield and that is part of the reason why I didn't directly address those aspects.

My issue with stats is that it's human nature to just pick and choose the ones people want and the ones that frame their "argument" better. I'm not saying stats aren't important or a way to compare different players, I'm just saying that they aren't the be all/end all and can be misleading and that sometime you have to look behind the stats and look at whata player is asked to do and what is going on around them. My point on the "fantasy QB" wasn't an insult it was because I think with that offense he WILL put up big fantasy numbers, while I'm still not sure how good he really is going to be. I think any competent QB would put up big numbers in that offense this year. That doesn't mean I think he is not good nor better than competent. I'll give you an example. I think Brees is an All Time great QB, but there were many years when he was a better fantasy QB than "real" QB. That is not an insult to Brees but rather a point about the type of offense he ran a few years back. He threw the ball constantly. The opposite holds true for a guy like Aikman. If you look at "counting" passing stats alone Aikman was not better than average in those areas. But he was a fantastic QB that just wasn't asked to do too much 75% of the time. But when he needed to and when it mattered most he was indeed great.
 

jarntt

Well-Known Member
33,881
12,245
1,033
Joined
Aug 19, 2013
Hoopla Cash
$ 1,000.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
So you'd sign a QB for $30m knowing he's going to be overall average in most every statistical metric over the course of a season then?

I brought up PFF and DVOA metrics because they're basically statistics designed not to be misleading because they take into account essentially any sort of factor you'd want between the two. I hadn't looked up Dak in those metrics until yesterday, but he was actually in the lower half of the league from a performance standpoint.

Just get on with your point about comparing the two QBs.
No, not right now when a deal can be put off and you don't now that he will be

Both QBs are Matthew Stafford. He was not a great QB talent in year one and then much worse from a talent perspective the next. Nothing happens in a vacuum. He was the same Matthew Stafford.
 

Across The Field

Oaky Afterbirth
25,920
5,536
533
Joined
Apr 21, 2015
Hoopla Cash
$ 24,656.63
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
And I've always deferred on certain aspects to those that watched the player more as you obviously have with Mayfield and that is part of the reason why I didn't directly address those aspects.

My issue with stats is that it's human nature to just pick and choose the ones people want and the ones that frame their "argument" better. I'm not saying stats aren't important or a way to compare different players, I'm just saying that they aren't the be all/end all and can be misleading and that sometime you have to look behind the stats and look at whata player is asked to do and what is going on around them. My point on the "fantasy QB" wasn't an insult it was because I think with that offense he WILL put up big fantasy numbers, while I'm still not sure how good he really is going to be. I think any competent QB would put up big numbers in that offense this year. That doesn't mean I think he is not good nor better than competent. I'll give you an example. I think Brees is an All Time great QB, but there were many years when he was a better fantasy QB than "real" QB. That is not an insult to Brees but rather a point about the type of offense he ran a few years back. He threw the ball constantly. The opposite holds true for a guy like Aikman. If you look at "counting" passing stats alone Aikman was not better than average in those areas. But he was a fantastic QB that just wasn't asked to do too much 75% of the time. But when he needed to and when it mattered most he was indeed great.
The problem here is that Aikman wasn't even that good from a qualitative standpoint in a lot of ways. No question he was a fantastic playoff QB. That doesn't mean he deserved to be a HOFer. Since we're comparing QBs, let's look at these two (playoff stats only):

QB A: 63.7 comp%, 7.7 YPA, 23 TD, 17 INT, 88.3 rating
QB B: 56.5 comp%, 7.2 YPA, 25 TD, 10 INT, 88.6 rating

QB A is Aikman. QB B is Joe Flacco, and he's not going to sniff the HOF.
 
Top