Odds to win the SB

jarntt said:

No, you are uber sensitive and get your boo boo feelings hurt and feel like you are being attacked for some bizarre reason. Grow a sack.

Mayfield is OK. Like I said, he is probably top 20. Let's see how he does going forward. He doesn't even have to be that good to put up good stats with all of those weapons. But stats are for people that can't judge talent with their eyes and read box scores. I like him better as a fantasy QB right now than I do a real QB. He probably needs to be able to get to at least 10 wins and win that division with that talent and easy schedule to prove he is better than average.

Click to expand...

I’m with you on this Jarntt. He asked what have teams like Philly and Dallas have that the Browns don’t. Well for one they both won playoff games last year. I can’t fathom how Cleveland is higher then LAC, Dallas, Philly.

Lake Shore Drive said:

When I joined SportsHoopla last summer, I made only two predictions. The first one was that my Bears would make the playoffs, despite the preseason prognostications to the contrary from just about every pundit & analyst out there. My prediction came thru with flying colors.

My other prediction is a bit more long term. I said by 2020 the Browns would be the dominant team in the AFC North, and one of the dominant teams in the entire conference. Of course this is still a TBD situation, but I think my initial prediction so far is spot on.

Click to expand...

I also think 2020 is fair. Even with those odds, NE and KC are ahead of them.

Lake Shore Drive said:

I was pleasantly surprised to get 12-1 odds for my Bears. Not that I think they are by any stretch a shoo-in for winning the SB, but we have a solid team with a decent shot at making it to the Promised Land, so I thought it was worth placing 50 LARGE on them to take it (with LARGE = $1 that is).

Click to expand...

Bears are a top team. Literally and inch or less away from winning their playoff game. Did they do anything in free agency?

PhoenixEagles1 said:

Bears are a top team. Literally and inch or less away from winning their playoff game. Did they do anything in free agency?

Click to expand...

A little bit, not too much. Mainly replacing the loss of two FA starters and of course losing DC Fangio was not cool. But that's what happens to good teams, they often lose key people.

PhoenixEagles1 said:

I’m with you on this Jarntt. He asked what have teams like Philly and Dallas have that the Browns don’t. Well for one they both won playoff games last year. I can’t fathom how Cleveland is higher then LAC, Dallas, Philly.

Click to expand...

I understand this and do want to see the Browns beat a good team before I go crazy with them, but not sure what they did last year means all that much.

I mean, before last year when was the last time Dallas won a playoff game....and yet they won one last year.

QB who won them a playoff game is gone. Guarantee wentz will make it through the season and that might be another story.

LOL at the Bears.

dtgold88 said:

so you are thinking smart, extremely accurate with a strong arm are not traits that might make up a good QB?

Click to expand...

Not at all. I'm saying he is still young and we don't know what he is yet. He could very well end up being very good. as of today he is already probably top 20 which for a Rookie is pretty good. Where is it I said he won't be good?

Across The Field said:

lol so if the Browns are "way too high", I'd love to know where you have them.

Also LMFAO at "I don't think Baker is very good".

Click to expand...

Lower.

jarntt said:

Not at all. I'm saying he is still young and we don't know what he is yet. He could very well end up being very good. as of today he is already probably top 20 which for a Rookie is pretty good. Where is it I said he won't be good?

Click to expand...

You didn't say "he wont be good", but you said this......."He doesn't even have to be that good to put up good stats with all of those weapons. But stats are for people that can't judge talent with their eyes and read box scores. I like him better as a fantasy QB right now than I do a real QB."

all about the stats? Not that he makes quick decisions, is deadly accurate and has a great arm? Those are not traits you want in a "real QB"?

How can anybody think the Packers at 12-1 is right? New HC, new OC, huge turnover on defense. This won't be last years or even the past 3 years Packers, but too many question marks to be better than a 20-1 shot.

Best bets, which automatically excludes the top few teams, look like Atlanta, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore. Not that I think any of those will win it, but risk/reward looks best in those areas I thought.

dtgold88 said:

You didn't say "he wont be good", but you said this......."He doesn't even have to be that good to put up good stats with all of those weapons. But stats are for people that can't judge talent with their eyes and read box scores. I like him better as a fantasy QB right now than I do a real QB."

all about the stats? Not that he makes quick decisions, is deadly accurate and has a great arm? Those are not traits you want in a "real QB"?

Click to expand...

So read what I wrote and tell me what's incorrect. I said time will tell and he is already top 20. Where did I say he is all about stats. I said:

"He doesn't even have to be that good to put up good stats with all of those weapons." Is this not true? This doesn't say he won't be any good. Someone was quoting stats. My point was he BETTER put up big stats this
year with those weapons.

"But stats are for people that can't judge talent with their eyes and read box scores." Today's QBs and players in general are graded more on their counting stats. It's the fantasy football, ESPN highlights mentality. You throw more and you get more stats. If you are in an explosive offense you get more stats. I judge QBs in particular on how they do what they are asked to do and if they can do it at important times. 300 yards used to mean something. Now guys do it while getting blown out. TD passes are more a function of your offense and opportunity (same for WRs). What do you do when the game is on the line or even more important your season is on the line. What do you do on 3rd down or in the 4th Qtr. The most important thing a QB does is not turn the ball over. I don't blame them for fumbles usually because it's usually them getting hit and not seeing it. But Ints are one of the most important things. He needs to be better here than last year. Teams that turn the ball over lose and wins are how QBs are judged. This is a statement in general, not a Mayfield statement. As soon as someone starts pointing to stats as their entire argument I know they don't really get it.

"I like him better as a fantasy QB right now than I do a real QB" You disagree with this statement for this year. I think he puts up pretty good stats this season. He has one of the best WRs in history, another good WR and what seems to be a good RB. I'm don't know what he will be as an NFL QB yet and am not sold on him as being a good QB, but I think his counting stats will be good. Personally If I'm ranking top QBs I don't rank him top 15 going into this year, but I sure as heck have him top 15 in fantasy.

The 9ers odds are too high but it looks like Vegas' logic is they are picking the 9ers to be that breakout team that pops up every year and makes the playoffs and maybe make a run. You had it with the Bears and Colts last year and the Eagles the prior year and so on.

I just think they have the Chargers odds too low. The team is relatively intact from last year so there really isn't much of a case for them to really drop off too much from 12-4. They just ended the playoffs on a really bad note with one of the worst defensive gameplans I've seen in a while against the Pats.

dtgold88 said:

Correct, but still a little curious for me.....I didn't think so many would buy into the Browns yet, but clearly Vegas does.

Click to expand...

You have to remember. When Vegas makes these lines they factor in the betting public too. Lowest odds doesn't always equal better team in Vegas' eyes.

There is A Moose at 3rd said:

Browns at 5 is probably rich, they should be somewhere in the 9-12 range for right now. That's too aggressive. Being placed closer to their ceiling rather than their median. Would bet on them all day to make the playoffs and win the North, but top 5 to win the SB is a little much, and too soon.

Click to expand...

But again it is about betting. Betters do get stupid.....

The Derski said:

Bears have the second best odds?

Click to expand...

Hurts, doesn't it?

nebearsfan70 said:

Hurts, doesn't it?

Click to expand...

Yes. My abs from laughing so hard.

The Derski said:

Yes. My abs from laughing so hard.

Click to expand...

Kinda like last season? Interesting..

kburjr said:

How can anybody think the Packers at 12-1 is right? New HC, new OC, huge turnover on defense. This won't be last years or even the past 3 years Packers, but too many question marks to be better than a 20-1 shot.

Click to expand...

Packers will be lucky to win 6 games this next season.

nebearsfan70 said:

Kinda like last season? Interesting..

Click to expand...

Are you going to hang that division banner at Soldier Field?

See, in Green Bay we display Lombardi trophies.