Giants Top Prospect

calsnowskier · Dec 18, 2018

I saw the headlines at MCC about the community prospect list, and thought this was what they were doing. It turned out to just be some random questions, but the idea I had sounded some what interesting to try here...

Who is the Giants top prospect? I will list a bunch of names on a poll and we will vote for who is #1. Then we will vote for who is #2 and so on. Each poll will stay open for 4 days.

While this is intended for Giants fans, I welcome others who know baseball to participate as well. As we go, please offer up recommendations to be added to the list as we go.

@msgkings322
@tzill
@MarcoPolo
@SFGRTB
@BeerMe
@stanford the manford
@Stokes1931
@LHG
@Giantsmojo
@GiantsPackersChamps2011
@Mays-Fan
@williewilliejuan
@moxie
@1phlapdown
@filosofy29
@jeep99tj
@shrksfn9192
@SFSportsFan8125
@SF11704
@Robotech
@Sandisfan
@fullxtension
@Hangman
@Pattersonca65

calsnowskier · Dec 18, 2018

The top 3 are pretty clear. Who ends up #2 and #3 may be interesting, but thegroupof 3 should be near unanimous. 4-20 or so is a full crapshoot.

Pattersonca65 · Dec 18, 2018

I love the team but confess I know very little about players that are in the minors. I would have to choose an IDK option, lol, but will enjoy seeing what others think.

fullxtension · Dec 18, 2018

Number one prospect is Bartman.

calsnowskier · Dec 18, 2018

fullxtension said:
Number one prospect is Bartman.

I could understand Luciano possibly getting a vote or two, but #1 should be a pretty easy pick.

I am interested to see who gets the #2 spot, though. Luciano has yet to play, but the scouts seem to LOVE him. Ramos has played, but his ‘18 was a bit pedestrian. But he actually has a “back of the baseball card” that Luciano lacks.

MarcoPolo · Dec 18, 2018

First, is that "AT_SIGN {login_name}" in the first post supposed to do something? Was I supposed to get a msg or ... ? (because I didn't)

Secondly, how do you rate "top prospect" ? What are the criteria? Most likely to make the majors and stick? Be a possible star?

Frankly, year after year some untried, untested youngster vaults to the very top of the prospect list because of "promise" ... and then we never see him in the majors. I think nobody should be allowed on the list until AFTER their first full year of pro ball (footnotes or "in the comments" section, sure - but ineligible to make the list).

In all the years I've been (somewhat) following the Giants' minors, less than a handful of "top prospects out of the gate" ever ended up showing anywhere near the original hype: Posey, Lincecum, Bumgarner (in order - and the order is based on the INITIAL HYPE out of the gate).

Posey was "THE" signing from before he even signed - and he delivered. Timmy was similar - talked up from the very beginning as a savior. Bumgarner was also "top prospect" on every list right out of the gate - but I don't remember the hype being as high for him as the first two I mentioned. (Although I would argue that MadBum is our best draft pick of the past 30 years, followed very closely by Posey and then Timmy.)

Other guys did VERY well, but weren't hyped as much before ever appearing in a single game. Matt Cain, for example. His hype grew as he made his way through the org (and I was sold when I saw him pitch what was probably the best game of his career after the no-hitter : in San Jose). Romo and Wilson never had much hype early, nor did Belt. Crawford was talked up a bit, but not really super hyped (but once I saw his soft hands, again in SJ, I knew he would be a defensive gem - I compared him to Vizquel).

And ALL THOSE OTHERS, year after year after year, who had "so much power" or "so much promise" before ever spending an inning on a diamond for the Gs, and then never even made AAA for a half season. Heck, they probably get arrested for murder in some Caribbean country ...

So I think I'll skip this guess-fest, because I bet that guys who don't have even 500 PAs or 100 innings pitched are going to figure very high on the list.

MarcoPolo · Dec 18, 2018

On the other hand, I am looking forward to seeing a bunch of games in SJ this year !! May God never take the 'A'- level team out of San Jose !!

SFGRTB · Dec 18, 2018

MarcoPolo said:
On the other hand, I am looking forward to seeing a bunch of games in SJ this year !! May God never take the 'A'- level team out of San Jose !!

The Giants own a partial stake in that team so I highly doubt they'll ever part-ways. But the Cal League is struggling as a whole.

SFGRTB · Dec 18, 2018

MarcoPolo said:
First, is that "AT_SIGN {login_name}" in the first post supposed to do something? Was I supposed to get a msg or ... ? (because I didn't)

Secondly, how do you rate "top prospect" ? What are the criteria? Most likely to make the majors and stick? Be a possible star?

Frankly, year after year some untried, untested youngster vaults to the very top of the prospect list because of "promise" ... and then we never see him in the majors. I think nobody should be allowed on the list until AFTER their first full year of pro ball (footnotes or "in the comments" section, sure - but ineligible to make the list).

In all the years I've been (somewhat) following the Giants' minors, less than a handful of "top prospects out of the gate" ever ended up showing anywhere near the original hype: Posey, Lincecum, Bumgarner (in order - and the order is based on the INITIAL HYPE out of the gate).

Posey was "THE" signing from before he even signed - and he delivered. Timmy was similar - talked up from the very beginning as a savior. Bumgarner was also "top prospect" on every list right out of the gate - but I don't remember the hype being as high for him as the first two I mentioned. (Although I would argue that MadBum is our best draft pick of the past 30 years, followed very closely by Posey and then Timmy.)

Other guys did VERY well, but weren't hyped as much before ever appearing in a single game. Matt Cain, for example. His hype grew as he made his way through the org (and I was sold when I saw him pitch what was probably the best game of his career after the no-hitter : in San Jose). Romo and Wilson never had much hype early, nor did Belt. Crawford was talked up a bit, but not really super hyped (but once I saw his soft hands, again in SJ, I knew he would be a defensive gem - I compared him to Vizquel).

And ALL THOSE OTHERS, year after year after year, who had "so much power" or "so much promise" before ever spending an inning on a diamond for the Gs, and then never even made AAA for a half season. Heck, they probably get arrested for murder in some Caribbean country ...

So I think I'll skip this guess-fest, because I bet that guys who don't have even 500 PAs or 100 innings pitched are going to figure very high on the list.

It's all subjective anyway, rating a top prospect.

With modern technology, however, prospects are becoming **easier** to evaluate. Doesn't guarantee success (a guy may never learn how to hit a breaking ball, or have consistent mechanics to throw strikes, or stay healthy), but with the data and tech all these players have access too, even in the minors, it seems like more players are reaching their perceived ceilings, or improving in ways they weren't expected to.

I don't necessarily have the data to support that claim, but have looked into it in recent years. Hopefully one day I'll figure out some way to track that, or find someone who does.

calsnowskier · Dec 18, 2018

MarcoPolo said:
First, is that "AT_SIGN {login_name}" in the first post supposed to do something? Was I supposed to get a msg or ... ? (because I didn't)

It will give you an “alert” unless you have turned off that feature. The alert will say something like “so-and-so mentioned you in a post”

calsnowskier · Dec 18, 2018

And the criteria to use is whatever you want to use. Proximity? Ceiling? Floor? Hair color? Whatever you want to rank.

@moxie , for example, only judges a players motorboating skills. Weird way to rate a prospect, but to each their own, I guess...

MarcoPolo · Dec 18, 2018

calsnowskier said:
And the criteria to use is whatever you want to use. Proximity? Ceiling? Floor? Hair color? Whatever you want to rank.

@moxie , for example, only judges a players motorboating skills. Weird way to rate a prospect, but to each their own, I guess...

Do a lot of women volunteer for players to demonstrate their "motorboating skills" ???

calsnowskier · Dec 18, 2018

MarcoPolo said:
Do a lot of women volunteer for players to demonstrate their "motorboating skills" ???

You don’t think these guys go into baseball for the money, do you?

moxie · Dec 19, 2018

calsnowskier said:
And the criteria to use is whatever you want to use. Proximity? Ceiling? Floor? Hair color? Whatever you want to rank.

@moxie , for example, only judges a players motorboating skills. Weird way to rate a prospect, but to each their own, I guess...

It's a proven, scientific method. Find a better one that doesn't include math or any discernible athletic ability. I'll wait.

calsnowskier · Dec 19, 2018

moxie said:
It's a proven, scientific method. Find a better one that doesn't include math or any discernible athletic ability. I'll wait.

Can’t argue the logic...

Hangman · Dec 21, 2018

I am not sure who it is yet. Have to wait at mid year when we trade MadBum for an elite prospect.

MarcoPolo · Dec 27, 2018

So, once again, the "top prospect" is a guy who the Giants signed/drafted this year.

LHG · Dec 28, 2018

MarcoPolo said:
So, once again, the "top prospect" is a guy who the Giants signed/drafted this year.

I agree with your assessment to not rank Ramos and Luciano so high but I'm okay with Bart in this spot because he had the best offensive year among all Giant farmhands. The dude dominated out the gate.

Giants Top Prospect

Who is #1?

Melvin Adon

Shaun Anderson

Chris Shaw

Heliot Ramos

Joey Bart

Logan Webb

Garrett Williams

Marco Luciano

Gregory Santos

Sandro Fabian

Alexander Canario

Juan de Paula

Sean Hjelle

Diego Rincones

Aremis Garcia

Ray Black

Abiatal Avelino

Ryan Howard

CJ Hinojosa

Jacob Gonzalez

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