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JohnU

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If any thread deserved its own thread, this is it.
The accepted list of available free agents is not going to make the Reds better. I hope they know that.
It will also cost them the future. Does this front office really intend to pursue Sanchez, Lynn and a few others? I'd rather they try to conjure up another DeSclafani with a mid-range trade.
 

Hit-n-Run

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When your rotation has been this bad for this long just about anyone initially can be sold as an upgrade.

Trading prospects for pitching seems like a fools errand this season. Not a fan of trading prospects in general, but especially when one or two pitchers isn't pushing this club over the top. They need to do a better job developing what they already have first.
 

JohnU

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Considering there is more than just lip service being given to the overall change in strategy for starting pitchers. If they plan to seam together a rotation with 4 or 5 pitchers, they already are behind the metrics.

My advice is to never listen to anything I say. Other than that, get a bunch of guys who can throw 30 or 40 pitches, some of them for strikes and not too many that exit the stadium.
 

JohnU

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Clearly the Iglesias deal signals a little bit about what the Reds intend to do with pitching.
 

Hit-n-Run

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The Iglesias deal only added 1 year, but I guess the club feels it saved them money over the life of the contract by avoiding arbitration.

Extensions sound great until the player is sitting next to Homer Bailey in the corner of the dugout with his arm in a sling.

In a couple interviews I've heard Dick Williams didn't make extending Scooter sound inevitable. That could be more about not tipping their hand rather than intent. But Scooter is expected to earn $9M in arbitration. That makes him one of the few Reds tradable players making more than a few million. A trade involving Scooter to offset some of the cost wouldn't surprise me if the club is looking to add two starting pitchers.
 

JohnU

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Scooter's power numbers are legit. It's one HR a week, consistent with the league and really in line with the ballpark. I don't think he's a .310 hitter but he's not a .220 hitter either. His glove is ordinary but I haven't seen much that is better other than Phillips in his prime.

Dunno if the money he is going to make is hi-ball, lo-ball or just right. The idea that they plan to put Senzel on the roster and that we will all soon come to the victory feast is fun to speculate.

I still don't see the pitching that they want but there are a lot of guys in the middle of the pack with high ceilings who might end up on the roster. We might initially be disappointed. but so long as they aren't David Holmberg's in disguise -- 4th rounders -- we may end up with something close to MLB ready that the coaches can turn into quality. Every organization has those guys.

Sorry, but the guys who could help the Reds aren't in love with the ballpark and the promise that this is (again) the year they make a move. Six or seven teams are a lot closer to contending, if that's what drives a veteran FA to sign a deal.

Not many secrets among vets. I'd sign Harvey again before I'd go after Lance Lynn.
 

Redsfan1507

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The Reds can’t buy themselves a contending pitching staff on the MLB free agent market.

It’s all a catch-22 now. MLB Payroll structure, makes the team limitations entirely different from markets as different as NY and Cincinnati, if you are of the belief that bigger contracts gives you better talent. I kind of equate it to shopping for a house, in that your first look should be for what you can afford, and some neighborhoods are simply out of budget for me.

The cheapest house in a good neighborhood may be a better investment- if you can afford the renovation required to be “ competitive “ years down the road when selling. The Reds don’t renovate too well.

The biggest difference, IMO, in markets of different budget, is the ability to miss and still spend again to replace their mistake. The Reds, Brewers and Pirates usually can’t buy better answers than the Cubs and Cardinals can. That means to be successful, the poorer teams have to get more right and miss less, and replace from thier own pre-arbitration youth....and THERE is THE clue for the Reds. Pre-arbitration /pre Free Agent youth.

I’m not sure the Reds have the determination or the developmental talent to have a decades long great scouting and minor league development program to make up for the ability for a bigger neighbor to go sign consistently better, but it’s the only legitimate chance they have. That doesn’t mean they call up AAA players without skills to succeed either.

Baseball begins and ends with pitching. Most say any team can hit in a small park, but not many can pitch there. I think the Reds obviously need better ametuer pitching scouts, looking for metrics that fit their park and payroll, instead of just the radar gun...and the ability and determination to DEVELOP them into more than they signed. They must improve here first.

Downstream, they also unfortunately need to guard themselves from 5 year contracts with 2 year productivity. Fans weren’t initially thrilled when they traded Lee May and Tommy Helms for a midget named Joe Morgan, lanky BP pitcher named Billingham and a skinny powerless OF named Geronimo but it Worked.

Robinson for Pappas, Perez for Fryman
Not so well, but ALL of those deals were made at the time, because of the true depth of homegrown talent still in the organization. This Reds team doesn’t have that strength to deal from, they have to literally rebuild from the farm up. I’d like to see them do that, so I have another chance to see a Reds winner before I croak. They won’t do it the way they’ve been doing it lately.
 

TKOSpikes

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I've heard we're showing interest in Syndergaard...
 

JohnU

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I guess I've just seen too many trades for top pitchers that turned out to be a lot of money spent to win 85 games. That would be a big turnaround for the Reds but it hardly makes them competitive -- just doesn't piss us off until September rather than May.

If these guys think they can leverage top pitching, they have to concede they can build the farm system up quickly because it's going to take Trammell or Senzel and more to get a Syndergaard.

I think looking at the tools the Reds pitchers have, the only thing missing is the strike zone, unless it's a 3-0 groover ball that ends up 34 rows high in the Moon deck.

Teaching Mahle and Castillo to pitch, giving Disco the chance to assert himself, maybe get a mid line guy -- that's not hard to find -- and giving Harvey a chance to prove he can pitch. Lorenzen might be the mid line guy. Romano probably isn't. Stephenson is not, that's for sure. Santillan maybe in another year.

Bob C. is gonna "get the pitching" without having any idea on how that is achieved. He wants to keep all the fan favorites and hope he can deal some bench guys for a quality pitching staff.

I am always leery of coaching staffs who make everyone giddy the week before Thanksgiving.
 

JohnU

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I just read the blather Heyman posted about Keuchel, who would be an OK mid-rotation guy. The Reds don't need that. They are better served teaching Cody Reed to pitch.
 

Hit-n-Run

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It's natural for the media types to link the Reds interest to pitchers the club is familiar with. It's especially true when you hire new coaches.

Derek Johnson has history with Sonny Gray. He coached Wade Miley and Gio Gonzalez with the Brewers. The club itself has familiarity with Matt Harvey. But all those guys had some level of resurgence and are looking for more than they're probably worth. The Reds are looking for the next comeback player of the year candidate. There's always pitchers that have a resurgence with a change of scenery or under the watchful eye of a new coaching staff.

IMO, Lance Lynn might be a guy worth looking at. He's had a lot of success in the NL Central. Struggled in his only season in the AL last year, but a lot of NL pitchers don't adjust well to the AL. Johnny Cueto would be a good example.
 

JohnU

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Mike Leake has been discussed if the Reds want to drive the truck over to Seattle for the clearance sale. I'd accept Leake if the Mariners split the cost. So many mid-range pitchers are just under the radar but that's no surprise, as has been pointed out. The scribes have their list of the top guys and since the list is already written, they just share it with a new "this team is looking for starting pitchers ...." as if anybody wasn't.
 

JohnU

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I suppose Tanner Roark is better than Tanner Rainey. Methinks the Nats were unloading some numbers. But if the guy can get people out, he's welcome. His numbers suggest he will give up the appropriate number of home runs to make him quite welcome.

Of course, he's likely just a one-year rental.
 
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Hit-n-Run

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Tanner for Tanner. It's something for nothing, if you consider $9M nothing.

He falls into the category I mentioned before. He's a veteran they think may be a candidate for a resurgence. Depending on whether there is a resurgence they potentially get 1/2 a season out of him and flip him for a better prospect than Tanner Rainey. There's no future upside for the Reds keeping a guy past the trade deadline who is in his last year of arbitration.

Guys like Tanner Roark are a gap filling bridge to better long term options. The problem is those options haven't come into focus.
 

JohnU

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Roark fills Harvey's spot in the rotation, around a 3-or-4. I agree he'll likely be dealt but we said that about Harvey. So who knows?
 

Hit-n-Run

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I think the Reds are hoping Derek Johnson can help Tanner Roark be this year's Wade Miley. He's had a couple pretty good seasons during his career. A resurgence toward one of his better years and he'd be a significant upgrade. "If" is always a gamble. It's like buying a vowel on Wheel of Fortune.... "if" you solve the puzzle it was money well spent.

Getting one deal done at the Winter Meetings is a good start. I'd assume DW attempted to lay some ground work for future talks towards a bigger deal.

The last news to come out of the meetings was a rule 5 draft pick named Connor Joe from the Dodgers. The last rule 5 pick (Stuart Turner) didn't work out well, but such is often the case with that sort of thing. The former 1st round pick had a breakout year in 2018 and might snag the corner IF/OF bench role with a good ST. It's either that or slide back into the anomitity he came from.
 

JohnU

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I assume Roark is aware of his role on a team that maybe sees him as a lever to upgrade somewhere.
I still gotta think they will offer a rotation spot to Lorenzen.
 

CB3UK

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This is good stuff in here guys. I agree with the above post about trading prospect generally, but we have a glut of quality infield talent. We can afford to part with a few if we can get a quality return. I still cant understand why we developed pitching so poorly with Price as manager....being a pitching coach and all that.
 

JohnU

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This is good stuff in here guys. I agree with the above post about trading prospect generally, but we have a glut of quality infield talent. We can afford to part with a few if we can get a quality return. I still cant understand why we developed pitching so poorly with Price as manager....being a pitching coach and all that.
It is possible they got better under Price and Jenkins. Not being really all that great to start with, maybe. Part of it is they just give up too damned many homers.
 

CB3UK

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It is possible they got better under Price and Jenkins. Not being really all that great to start with, maybe. Part of it is they just give up too damned many homers.
Nowhere to go but up, eh? Lol

I think yall hit the nail on the head. Lack of developing is whats really killing us. Even if we do shell out money for arms, its not a tenable long term strategy for us. Regardless, we absolutely have to make moves this winter to be respectable this season. As storied ad this franchise is, seeing us act like Padres or Rays or whomever you like ticks me off. We have a large and rabid fan base, and frankly should have gotten better than we have the past 2 decades.
 
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