Monday Night Football: KC Chiefs (9-1) @ LA Rams (9-1) | 8:15pm ESPN

NinerSickness · Nov 20, 2018

There is A Moose at 3rd said:
/eyeroll

Why? He made a fair point. 2 turnovers per game won't spell victories in the postseason.

Fountain City Blues · Nov 20, 2018

NinerSickness said:
Why? He made a fair point. 2 turnovers per game won't spell victories in the postseason.

It's a noisy stat with little context using "last x games" logic with arbitrary endpoints. Zero chance I take that kind of argument seriously; especially when the argument relies on "better teams" when the Chiefs already are playing the better defensive teams.

The INT in the Browns game is nothing anyone would take seriously if they know the context of it for instance. Or a fumble (which ended as a passing TD) in the Bengals game. This gets increasingly absurd after watching the Rams game and pretending all those TO's are 100% on Mahomes. Shit happens, variance.'

Just like Mahomes wasn't going a whole season without throwing an INT, there's very little reason to think this isn't just negative variance.

CaptainStubing · Nov 20, 2018

Battlelyon said:
MVP!

Moose doesn't agree with him. Moose apologizes for every mahomes turnover.

Fountain City Blues · Nov 20, 2018

Battlelyon said:
MVP!

Ehhh, you can make a case 4 of those 5 turnovers are on Mahomes by scorekeeping only. Mahomes played great, stats be damned. Rams made great plays to make that happen.

Fountain City Blues · Nov 20, 2018

CaptainStubing said:
Moose doesn't agree with him. Moose apologizes for every mahomes turnover.

Well, we can choose to employ a 5 pointed fallacy in a single argument instead :P

NinerSickness · Nov 20, 2018

There is A Moose at 3rd said:
It's a noisy stat with little context using "last x games" logic with arbitrary endpoints. Zero chance I take that kind of argument seriously; especially when the argument relies on "better teams" when the Chiefs already are playing the better defensive teams.

The INT in the Browns game is nothing anyone would take seriously if they know the context of it for instance. Or a fumble (which ended as a passing TD) in the Bengals game.

Until they come up with a stat that catalogs picks that aren't the QB's fault (which they should), there's no way to tell which QBs are bad versus unlucky (like if a WR has the ball bounce up off his hands).

Battlelyon · Nov 20, 2018

Goff, didn't get a lot of help from Gurley, and without arguably the Rams best WR. And he led them to victory.

Fountain City Blues · Nov 20, 2018

NinerSickness said:
Until they come up with a stat that catalogs picks that aren't the QB's fault (which they should), there's no way to tell which QBs are bad versus unlucky (like if a WR has the ball bounce up off his hands).

Oh, for sure. But I know for a fact he lives in KC (or at least in the general area) so I know he has access to all the Chiefs games; gonna give him a hard time for it when he knows better.

Fountain City Blues · Nov 20, 2018

Battlelyon said:
Goff, didn't get a lot of help from Gurley, and without arguably the Rams best WR. And he led them to victory.

#RunningbacksDontMatter :dhd:

Fountain City Blues · Nov 20, 2018

I'd sign up for this being the SB. One of the more entertaining regular season games in quite some time.

CaptainStubing · Nov 20, 2018

There is A Moose at 3rd said:
Ehhh, you can make a case 4 of those 5 turnovers are on Mahomes by scorekeeping only. Mahomes played great, stats be damned. Rams made great plays to make that happen.

No doubt some turnovers shouldn't be attributed to the QB when receivers run the wrong route or tip the ball in the air but you can't deny that a QB who is good at protecting the ball wouldn't have had 5 turnovers last night ...

Fountain City Blues · Nov 20, 2018

CaptainStubing said:
No doubt some turnovers shouldn't be attributed to the QB when receivers run the wrong route or tip the ball in the air but you can't deny that a QB who is good at protecting the ball wouldn't have had 5 turnovers last night ...

I've seen Peyton Manning have random games with a pretty bad output in the turnover department. So yes, I am absolutely denying it.

2 blindside stripsacks from Donald

1 INT as being hit

Another desperation heave.

The pick 6 is 1000% his fault due to poor footwork.

If you want to argue he should've stepped up in the pocket on those sacks, I'd disagree, but at some point I think we're doing the Rams a disservice by pretending Mahomes was just reckless with the ball. They made huge plays.

CaptainStubing · Nov 20, 2018

There is A Moose at 3rd said:
I'd sign up for this being the SB. One of the more entertaining regular season games in quite some time.

I think almost everyone agrees .... very entertaining game

CaptainStubing · Nov 20, 2018

There is A Moose at 3rd said:
I've seen Peyton Manning have random games with a pretty bad output in the turnover department. So yes, I am absolutely denying it.

2 blindside stripsacks from Donald

1 INT as being hit

Another desperation heave.

The pick 6 is 1000% his fault due to poor footwork.

Ok,

There is A Moose at 3rd said:
I've seen Peyton Manning have random games with a pretty bad output in the turnover department. So yes, I am absolutely denying it.

2 blindside stripsacks from Donald

1 INT as being hit

Another desperation heave.

The pick 6 is 1000% his fault due to poor footwork.

If you want to argue he should've stepped up in the pocket on those sacks, I'd disagree, but at some point I think we're doing the Rams a disservice by pretending Mahomes was just reckless with the ball. They made huge plays.

Well, the fact of the matter is that the Chiefs are going to be in these high-scoring shootouts with any team that is halfway decent and we've seen it many times this year with this chiefs team. The playoffs will be no different as they will be facing stiff competition.

In those types of games, the team that can make one or two extra good defensive plays is going to win because that will be the difference in the game. For the Chiefs sake, hopefully Mahomes won't make it too easy for the opponent to make those one or two extra big plays

Fountain City Blues · Nov 20, 2018

CaptainStubing said:
Well, the fact of the matter is that the Chiefs are going to be in these high-scoring shootouts with any team that is halfway decent and we've seen it many times this year with this chiefs team. The playoffs will be no different as they will be facing stiff competition.

They're outscoring everyone but two teams, those two losses are on the road, by 3, without Eric Berry.

They have, by a good margin, the best DVOA in the NFL.

At some point this competition argument gets to meme levels that mean nothing.

CaptainStubing said:
In those types of games, the team that can make one or two extra good defensive plays is going to win because that will be the difference in the game. For the Chiefs sake, hopefully Mahomes won't make it too easy for the opponent to make those one or two extra big plays

Steelers game. Lost the turnover differential. Won anyways. On the Road. You're really reaching here.

Ricky Roma · Nov 20, 2018

Scooby-Doo said:
No. It speaks to low scoring, shitty games unlike the great game we saw last night.

Who says low scoring, shitty games....are good games? You and I see differently as to what a great game is. I think games filled with turnovers and penalties severely curtail the definition of a great game.

MileHigh64 · Nov 20, 2018

There is A Moose at 3rd said:
The Chiefs defensive competition almost certainly is going down, not up in the playoffs this year is the semi-bizarre part of this. The Jags and Cards are better than most the D's on the schedule. Denver won't be in the playoffs. The Chargers were handled... handily. Browns had 37 dropped on them; the INT was low leverage/end of the half type silliness. The Steelers got 6 TD's dropped on them. The Chiefs have played one of the hardest schedules on D in football (which is why their oDVOA was way ahead of everyone, including the Rams and Saints coming into this week) so forgive me for being a bit incredulous here.

Hey now, the Broncos held both the Rams and the Chiefs (twice) to their lowest scoring totals. unfortunately however, you're right about not making the playoffs.....dammit.

Fountain City Blues · Nov 20, 2018

The data doesn't really support the idea of the Chiefs being built on sand.

Fountain City Blues · Nov 20, 2018

MileHigh64 said:
Hey now, the Broncos held both the Rams and the Chiefs (twice) to their lowest scoring totals. unfortunately however, you're right about not making the playoffs.....dammit.

The sins of wasting a top 5 defense.

Ricky Roma · Nov 20, 2018

shopson67 said:
Low scoring doesn't necessarily mean strong defense either. It just as easily means inept offenses (and sometimes ridiculous weather conditions).

I certainly didn't equate low scoring with quality of play. I've already stated that the exact opposite also rings true - when the game was overly defensive in the mid-late 70's. The fact of the matter is, this era severely nullifies defenses and greatly aids the passing game...and eventually it just bores me. Had the game been at least more cleanly played, with simply great passing beating decent coverage, it would've greatly improved the situation.

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