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FBS Divisional & full conference records

BamaDude

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No...I was correct. You might have misread something.
Clemson beat Tex AM and Duke beat Northwestern and Baylor.

Big10 wins are...
Ohio St over Oreg St
Maryland over Texas
Penn St over Pitt
Indiana over UVA
Iowa over Iowa St
Ohio St over TCU
and the one you probably missed...
Purdue over Boston College

You are right. I missed the Baylor win.
 

belcherboy

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Big12 is still sitting ok in the long run I think. Texas or Oklahoma can win out and either will be in.

Maybe, but an undefeated ND could really mess that up. Texas has a bad loss. Ok could sneak in over another 1 loss team.

If ND goes undefeated they are in. I believe a one loss or less SEC Champ, a one loss or less Clemson, and a one loss or less B10 champ would all likely get in before a one loss B12 champ. Just my two cents.
 

4down20

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Maybe, but an undefeated ND could really mess that up. Texas has a bad loss. Ok could sneak in over another 1 loss team.

If ND goes undefeated they are in. I believe a one loss or less SEC Champ, a one loss or less Clemson, and a one loss or less B10 champ would all likely get in before a one loss B12 champ. Just my two cents.

By the time it gets here, it'll be obvious. For now, they're still in it though.
 

belcherboy

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By the time it gets here, it'll be obvious. For now, they're still in it though.

True, I just disagreed with this statement by you:

Texas or Oklahoma can win out and either will be in.

They need some help if they want to be in. If ND, Bama, Clemson, OSU or Michigan don't lose another game, they most definitely would be out IMO. At least I think Texas would be out. OK could have an argument if they dominated much of the second half of the season.
 

4down20

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True, I just disagreed with this statement by you:

They need some help if they want to be in. If ND, Bama, Clemson, OSU or Michigan don't lose another game, they most definitely would be out IMO. At least I think Texas would be out. OK could have an argument if they dominated much of the second half of the season.

I look at it in terms of what it generally takes to be included because it's college football and I know many teams are going to lose, get upset and so on.

I suppose a pecking order of what if's could be established, but that's a good bit just looking at SoS and ordering based on that. I'm not seeing why Michigan would be ahead of Oklahoma for example. I don't see Michigan winning out anyway, but assuming they do - I'm not sure why Michigan would be in over a 1 loss Oklahoma team.

Could be, the usual place I go to for SoS seems to be changing something and is fucked up. They haven't updated the SoS page since the 8th and the FEI rankings for some reason have some new stat and doesn't have the total SoS so I can see the remaining games.

Hope I didn't just lose my favorite SoS metric.
 

belcherboy

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I look at it in terms of what it generally takes to be included because it's college football and I know many teams are going to lose, get upset and so on.

I suppose a pecking order of what if's could be established, but that's a good bit just looking at SoS and ordering based on that. I'm not seeing why Michigan would be ahead of Oklahoma for example. I don't see Michigan winning out anyway, but assuming they do - I'm not sure why Michigan would be in over a 1 loss Oklahoma team.

Could be, the usual place I go to for SoS seems to be changing something and is fucked up. They haven't updated the SoS page since the 8th and the FEI rankings for some reason have some new stat and doesn't have the total SoS so I can see the remaining games.

Hope I didn't just lose my favorite SoS metric.

I agree with your assessment on Michigan winning out. I too would be surprised if they did, but if they do win out, I have little doubt they would be in the playoffs over Oklahoma...especially if ND is a playoff team. Regardless, ND is going to be a top 10 team by seasons end because their remaining schedule easily favors them in every game, and I can't imagine they lose more than one game. (I think they will be undefeated, but I can hope for a loss). So Michigan will likely have at least 4 wins against top 25 teams (OSU likely would be top 10), and one loss, on the road, to an undefeated or one loss top ten team in Notre Dame.
 

NolePride

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Maybe, but an undefeated ND could really mess that up. Texas has a bad loss. Ok could sneak in over another 1 loss team.

If ND goes undefeated they are in. I believe a one loss or less SEC Champ, a one loss or less Clemson, and a one loss or less B10 champ would all likely get in before a one loss B12 champ. Just my two cents.

Off the top of my head...but it would depend on a 1-loss Clemson
getting in over a 1-loss Big12 team.

I think they would get in over a 1-loss WV, based on "name."
But that isn't guaranteed. Who would Clemson lose to.

Any loss that they get isn't going to qualify as a good loss. WV
already has a loss and they would have to beat OU and Texas, plus
one of them again.

Clemson might have to run the table...if it comes down to just
1-loss or unbeatens getting in.
 

4down20

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I agree with your assessment on Michigan winning out. I too would be surprised if they did, but if they do win out, I have little doubt they would be in the playoffs over Oklahoma...especially if ND is a playoff team. Regardless, ND is going to be a top 10 team by seasons end because their remaining schedule easily favors them in every game, and I can't imagine they lose more than one game. (I think they will be undefeated, but I can hope for a loss). So Michigan will likely have at least 4 wins against top 25 teams (OSU likely would be top 10), and one loss, on the road, to an undefeated or one loss top ten team in Notre Dame.

Could be, I was going to use the SoS rankings I normally use and make a basic ranking, but like I said - it's fucked up.

But Oklahoma's only loss is to Texas, and if Texas wins out and then Oklahoma plays Texas again in the Big12 Championship, then Oklahoma also has a good thing.

Michigan's previous SoS was #5 and Oklahoma's was #43, so Michigan would in theory have the advantage. But, those are older ones that use previous season/recruiting, so it has Penn St rated higher and Texas rated lower. And teams like Penn St now have 2 losses, will be up to 3 for Michigan to win out etc. Things will change. Also there is the addition of Texas to the Oklahoma schedule and an average Big10 West team to the Michigan.
 

belcherboy

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Off the top of my head...but it would depend on a 1-loss Clemson
getting in over a 1-loss Big12 team.

I think they would get in over a 1-loss WV, based on "name."
But that isn't guaranteed. Who would Clemson lose to.

Any loss that they get isn't going to qualify as a good loss. WV
already has a loss and they would have to beat OU and Texas, plus
one of them again.

Clemson might have to run the table...if it comes down to just
1-loss or unbeatens getting in.

True, the ACC has proven to be weaker this season with FSU crapping the bed this year (although I think NC State is still undefeated). If Clemson lost this season, I think it could be a death blow to their playoff chances as the last ranked team they play on their schedule is NC State...I don't see anyone on the other side of the conference giving them a signature win in the CCG either.
 

belcherboy

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Could be, I was going to use the SoS rankings I normally use and make a basic ranking, but like I said - it's fucked up.

But Oklahoma's only loss is to Texas, and if Texas wins out and then Oklahoma plays Texas again in the Big12 Championship, then Oklahoma also has a good thing.

Michigan's previous SoS was #5 and Oklahoma's was #43, so Michigan would in theory have the advantage. But, those are older ones that use previous season/recruiting, so it has Penn St rated higher and Texas rated lower. And teams like Penn St now have 2 losses, will be up to 3 for Michigan to win out etc. Things will change. Also there is the addition of Texas to the Oklahoma schedule and an average Big10 West team to the Michigan.

It does help Michigan greatly, IMO, that they lost in week 1. Regardless, I've watched enough college football this season to know that Michigan is not a top 4 team right now. They are getting better, but they will have to make huge improvements if they want to win the rest of their games this year.
 

BamaDude

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Power-5 Divisional records vs G-5 teams:

ACC Atlantic 11-0 1.000
SEC East 8-0 1.000
Pac-North 7-1 .875
Big 10 East 11-2 .846
SEC West 8-2 .800
Big 10 West 7-5 .583
ACC Coastal 5-4 .556
Pac-South 4-5 .444

Overall P-5 Conference records vs G-5 teams:

Big 12 11-0 1.000*
SEC 16-2 .889
ACC 16-4 .800
Big 10 18-7 .720
Pac-12 11-6 .647

*Note: the Big 12 is the only P-5 conference to go undefeated against G-5 teams, but also the only power league with a loss against an FCS team.
 

BamaDude

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It does help Michigan greatly, IMO, that they lost in week 1. Regardless, I've watched enough college football this season to know that Michigan is not a top 4 team right now. They are getting better, but they will have to make huge improvements if they want to win the rest of their games this year.

It's hard to imagine Notre Dame losing a game. Navy has given them problems the last few years, but the Middies are just a shadow of themselves this year. Playing at Northwestern might be a test, and maybe the trip to USC at season's end, even though the Trojans really don't appear that tough this season.

Willie Taggart's teams usually start out slow in his initial season, but toughen up a bit as the season draws on, so it is possible that FSU gives them a battle. And following that with Syracuse in the Bronx could just open up the door for an upset.

Purdue might give Ohio St. a tussle this weekend, but the Buckeye's best shot at picking up a loss would be in their back-to-back games at Michigan St., at Maryland, then home for UM.

The Wolverines have their own challenges at Michigan St., hosting Penn St. & Indiana, and finishing the season at the Horseshoe.
 

BamaDude

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Iowa has the Big 10's best shot at getting into the conference championship game, with road games at Penn St. and Purdue sandwiched between home games vs Maryland & Northwestern, then finishing the season with a hapless Nebraska squad.

Wisconsin has two easy foes in Illinois & Rutgers, but has road games at Northwestern, Penn St. & Purdue, with a home finale against Minnesota.

I seriously doubt that the Big-West champion will prevail against the Big-East, though.
 

BamaDude

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Competing in a very watered down ACC, Clemson can't afford a loss unless Notre Dame falters or the Big 12 champ ends up with two losses. I think the Tigers get by North Carolina St., but they could stumble at FSU or against South Carolina.

If the Wolfpack gets past Clemson, their biggest stumbling blocks could be at Syracuse and against FSU.

Duke is the only team in the ACC Coastal that has a decent shot at a playoff spot. To do that, they would have to get past Virginia this weekend, then win road games at Pitt, Miami & Clemson, then likely meet Clemson again in the ACC title game. I don't see them getting through that slate without another loss or two (or three).
 

BamaDude

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As for the Big 12, I'm not sure anyone gets through without another conference loss. Two of Oklahoma's three remaining home games don't look overly challenging, but they could have trouble at TCU, Texas Tech or West Virginia. The Sooners could run the table, but end up losing in the B-12 championship game.

Texas only has two home games remaining - against West Virginia & Iowa St. They play at Okie St., Texas Tech & Kansas. I think the Red Raiders & Cyclones will give them quite a run for the money.

West Virginia has home games vs Baylor, TCU & Oklahoma, and plays at Texas & Oklahoma St. I don't think they get past Texas, and that Thursday night home game vs Baylor could be a trap game. And when was the last time they beat Oklahoma?
 

Deep Creek

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I agree with your assessment on Michigan winning out. I too would be surprised if they did, but if they do win out, I have little doubt they would be in the playoffs over Oklahoma...especially if ND is a playoff team. Regardless, ND is going to be a top 10 team by seasons end because their remaining schedule easily favors them in every game, and I can't imagine they lose more than one game. (I think they will be undefeated, but I can hope for a loss). So Michigan will likely have at least 4 wins against top 25 teams (OSU likely would be top 10), and one loss, on the road, to an undefeated or one loss top ten team in Notre Dame.
I agree. Michigan's in over OU if both end with one loss.

Better to lose early to a end of season highly ranked team (ND) than lose later to a less ranked end of season team (Texas). OU may have a hard time having some quality wins before the season is over. Many of their Big 12 wins could end up being against teams that have 3-4+ losses.
 

BamaDude

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Only 3 teams left to carry the Pac-12 banner & one of them will be eliminated this weekend when Oregon travels to Washington St. If the Cougars win that one, they still have to play at Stanford & at Colorado, and try to hold off Washington on a Friday night season-ender.

Oregon still has to play at Arizona and Utah, and has a home date with Arizona St. The Buffaloes could get knocked out of contention this weekend at Washington. They still have home games left against Washington St. & Utah before ending the season at Cal.

There's a good chance all of the Pac-12 teams have two losses before the end of the season, and those that don't won't have a good enough resume' to get them into the playoffs.
 
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