NBA win total predictions

Shaqdaddy11 · Oct 15, 2018

tlance said:
Not a crazy prediction at all.

12 games missed likely amounts to about a 4 game difference in the standings. As close as the West is likely to be, yeah, that very likely could mean the Lakers are on the outside looking in.

You're automatically assuming the Lakers lose all the games lebron would miss. This isn't the cavs!

The Lakers were a 35 win team last year without him. Since then Ingram seems to have grown as a legit 2nd option and they added some good vets. This team even without lebron could possibly be a .500 team.

tlance · Oct 16, 2018

Shaqdaddy11 said:
You're automatically assuming the Lakers lose all the games lebron would miss. This isn't the cavs!

The Lakers were a 35 win team last year without him. Since then Ingram seems to have grown as a legit 2nd option and they added some good vets. This team even without lebron could possibly be a .500 team.

No I am not.

I am assuming they are a lot better with him than without.

Also, they lost some pretty important core pieces that contributed to those 35 wins. Take LeBron off the current roster and I do not think they are better than a 35 win team this year.

And yes, the young players will be improved.

flyerhawk · Oct 16, 2018

Shaqdaddy11 said:
You're automatically assuming the Lakers lose all the games lebron would miss. This isn't the cavs!

The Lakers were a 35 win team last year without him. Since then Ingram seems to have grown as a legit 2nd option and they added some good vets. This team even without lebron could possibly be a .500 team.

The Lakers had an actual center and power forward last year.

SoCalWizFan · Oct 16, 2018

I don't think that you can automatically assume that the Lakers will do better than the 48 win predicted total. You have to remember that this is a team with an even mix of aging vets and very young players. Typically that type of combination takes a while to gel so it may be a bit rocky during the first several months.

They likely will be fine as the season progresses, but I think that it is a stretch to just assume that they will win 50+ games (could happen but far from a given).

bksballer89 · Oct 16, 2018

SoCalWizFan said:
I don't think that you can automatically assume that the Lakers will do better than the 48 win predicted total. You have to remember that this is a team with an even mix of aging vets and very young players. Typically that type of combination takes a while to gel so it may be a bit rocky during the first several months.

They likely will be fine as the season progresses, but I think that it is a stretch to just assume that they will win 50+ games (could happen but far from a given).

Totally agree and the West isn't exactly easy.

I think they win between 47-52 games

gordontrue · Oct 16, 2018

SoCalWizFan said:
I don't think that you can automatically assume that the Lakers will do better than the 48 win predicted total. You have to remember that this is a team with an even mix of aging vets and very young players. Typically that type of combination takes a while to gel so it may be a bit rocky during the first several months.

They likely will be fine as the season progresses, but I think that it is a stretch to just assume that they will win 50+ games (could happen but far from a given).

The Lakers are by the far the biggest unknown in the west. No other team changed so drastically. Its hard to know where they'll stack up until we see them play for at least a few months.

The Cavs and the Heat made huge leaps in their win total when LeBron joined them, but they also acquired Love and Bosh, so we'll see. A lot depends on the progress of Ingram, Ball, Kuzma, and Hart.

trojanfan12 · Oct 16, 2018

Shaqdaddy11 said:
You're automatically assuming the Lakers lose all the games lebron would miss. This isn't the cavs!

The Lakers were a 35 win team last year without him. Since then Ingram seems to have grown as a legit 2nd option and they added some good vets. This team even without lebron could possibly be a .500 team.

They were a 35 win team, but Julius Randle and Brook Lopez were a big part of that. They are no longer with the team.

I don't know if I agree that Lebron has to play a minimum of 70 games, but I'd say he has to play in no less than 65.

A lot too will be determined by how all of the vets not named Lebraon play and how well they mesh with the kids.

Add to all of that, the fact that they play in the West and it just increases the level of difficulty. The West is strong enough that, if they take too long to gel, they could dig themselves a hole that they can't climb out of, even if Lebron plays 70+ games.

As gordon said, they are by far the biggest unknown in the West. For that matter, I'd take it a step farther and say that they are the biggest unknown in the league.

Shaqdaddy11 · Oct 16, 2018

flyerhawk said:
The Lakers had an actual center and power forward last year.

In a league that's becoming more and more about the small ball?

Who would you rather have? Brook Lopez and Randle or Javale and Lebron?

raptorlife4 · Oct 16, 2018

Can Lebron hold up playong 82 games in the West?
Guy is a freak of nature but he is getting up there in age.

I say the Lakers win about 48 and get a 6 or 7 seed

WiggyRuss · Oct 16, 2018

The Lakers have 2 weaknesses-

1. Front court defense. Asking LeBron/Kuzma/McGee/Zubac/Wagner to play the minutes at the 4 and the 5 is just not good defensively.

2. Outside shooting. They have no elite level snipers that have the gravity previous LeBron teammates have had to keep LeBron from being double or triple teamed so much.

How they compensate for those weaknesses, or make moves to shore them up, will determine how far they go.

WiggyRuss · Oct 16, 2018

Shaqdaddy11 said:
In a league that's becoming more and more about the small ball?

Who would you rather have? Brook Lopez and Randle or Javale and Lebron?

LeBron can play SOME minutes at the 4, but he has resisted it his entire career because A. he likes having the ball and making plays at the top of the key, and B. he has no interest in banging with big goons all game and getting beat up playing in the middle.

A LeBron with a consistent post game and playing in the middle can be deadly, but the toll it takes, and the fact that he hates doing it mean that if you are playing him major minutes at the 4, bad things are likely to happen.

Shaqdaddy11 · Oct 16, 2018

raptorlife4 said:
Can Lebron hold up playong 82 games in the West?
Guy is a freak of nature but he is getting up there in age.

I say the Lakers win about 48 and get a 6 or 7 seed

You're making it sound like every team in the West is a contender.

They play against plenty of shitty teams down the end of the season where they could potentially rest him if a playoff spot is nearly secured

Shaqdaddy11 · Oct 16, 2018

WiggyRuss said:
LeBron can play SOME minutes at the 4, but he has resisted it his entire career because A. he likes having the ball and making plays at the top of the key, and B. he has no interest in banging with big goons all game and getting beat up playing in the middle.

A LeBron with a consistent post game and playing in the middle can be deadly, but the toll it takes, and the fact that he hates doing it mean that if you are playing him major minutes at the 4, bad things are likely to happen.

I think by now you should have realised lebron is more than happy to.shake things up in his basketball mentality

flyerhawk · Oct 16, 2018

Shaqdaddy11 said:
In a league that's becoming more and more about the small ball?

Who would you rather have? Brook Lopez and Randle or Javale and Lebron?

Except we are talking about Lebron missing time. So it is Lopez/Randle or Javale/Zubac.

And if Lebron plays a significant amount of time at the 4 or 5, you can expect to see him missing games.

Shaqdaddy11 · Oct 16, 2018

flyerhawk said:
Except we are talking about Lebron missing time. So it is Lopez/Randle or Javale/Zubac.

And if Lebron plays a significant amount of time at the 4 or 5, you can expect to see him missing games.

So would you say this Lakers team, minus lebron would win more or less games than the Lakers did last season?

flyerhawk · Oct 16, 2018

Shaqdaddy11 said:
So would you say this Lakers team, minus lebron would win more or less games than the Lakers did last season?

If Lebron gets injured in their first game and misses the entire season, this Lakers team wouldn't win 30 games. Not without a major shakeup of the roster.

Shaqdaddy11 · Oct 16, 2018

flyerhawk said:
If Lebron gets injured in their first game and misses the entire season, this Lakers team wouldn't win 30 games. Not without a major shakeup of the roster.

I think that's a bit of an exaggeration but hey that's your opinion.

I personally think this team without lebron would be good enough for 37-42 wins.

gordontrue · Oct 16, 2018

flyerhawk said:
If Lebron gets injured in their first game and misses the entire season, this Lakers team wouldn't win 30 games. Not without a major shakeup of the roster.

wow I can't agree. Last year's Lakers finished the season 24 - 20.

You think this roster is so much worse that they couldn't win 30 out of 82?

Ball/Rondo > Ball/Ennis/IT
Hart/KCP >= KCP/Hart (Hart progression)
Ingram/Stephenson >= Ingram/Brewer (Ingram progression)
Kuzma/Beasley < Randle/Kuzma
McGee/Wagner < Lopez/Frye

flyerhawk · Oct 16, 2018

gordontrue said:
wow I can't agree. Last year's Lakers finished the season 24 - 20.

You think this roster is so much worse that they couldn't win 30 out of 82?

Ball/Rondo > Ball/Ennis/IT
Hart/KCP >= KCP/Hart (Hart progression)
Ingram/Stephenson >= Ingram/Brewer (Ingram progression)
Kuzma/Beasley < Randle/Kuzma
McGee/Wagner < Lopez/Frye

That's a weird marker to measure their season performance. Especially considering the changes to the team.

The only position where the Lakers are better, sans Lebron, would maybe be small forward.

Sure if Ingram and Hart make significant improvements that would helpful to the team. But regardless of what people claim about how the game is today, you can't survive with no inside presence. There is no reasonable way you can expect Javale McGee and Mo Wagner to play 40+ minutes collectively at the 5 for an entire season.

Lopez and Randle were not all stars but they played important roles on the team. Roles that they didn't really replace. Perhaps the Lakers will re-invent basketball and thrive with this roster but I would bet huge money that the Lakers will be making a move for some bodies to play in the paint.

thunderc · Oct 16, 2018

I’m going to put the Thunder at 55 wins.

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