Updated Bracketology 1.16.17

[ericd7633]

South Regional(Memphis, TN)

1. Baylor
16. HAMPTON(MEAC)/NEW ORLEANS(SOUTHLAND)
BOK Center(Tulsa, OK)
8. Arkansas
9. Seton Hall

5. Wisconsin
12. RICHMOND(A-10)
Golden 1 Center(Sacramento, CA)
4. Duke
13. MONMOUTH(MAAC)

6. MARYLAND(B1G)
11. Wichita State/VCU
BSW Arena(Greenville, SC)
3. North Carolina
14. UNC ASHEVILLE(BIG SOUTH)

7. Southern California
10. ILLINOIS STATE(MVC)
Bankers Life Fieldhouse(Indianapolis, IN)
2. Butler
15. NORTH DAKOTA STATE(SUMMIT)

East Regional(New York, NY)

1. VILLANOVA(BIG EAST)
16. MOUNT ST. MARY'S(NEC)/WEBER STATE(BIG SKY)
First Niagara Center(Buffalo, NY)
8. Dayton
9. TCU

5. Florida
12. AKRON(MAC)
BSW Arena(Greenville, SC)
4. NOTRE DAME(ACC)
13. VERMONT(AM. EAST)

6. St. Mary's
11. Iowa State
BMO Bradley Harris Center(Milwaukee, WI)
3. Louisville
14. FLORIDA GULF COAST(A-SUN)

7. Minnesota
10. Miami
Bankers Life Fieldhouse(Indianapolis, IN)
2. Kentucky
15. BELMONT(OVC)

Midwest Regional(Kansas City, MO)

1. KANSAS(BIG 12)
16. BOSTON(PATRIOT LEAGUE)
BOK Center(Tulsa, OK)
8. Northwestern
9. Clemson

5. Xavier
12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE(CUSA)
Vivint Arena(SLC, UT)
4. Oregon
13. CHATTANOOGA(SOUTHERN)

6. CINCINNATI(AAC)
11. UNC-WILMINGTON(CAA)
BMO Bradley Harris Center(Milwaukee, WI)
3. Creighton
14. PRINCETON(IVY)

7. South Carolina
10. Texas Tech
Amway Center(Orlando, FL)
2. Florida State
15. TEXAS SOUTHERN(SWAC)

West Regional(San Jose, CA)

1. GONZAGA(WCC)
16. UC-IRVINE(BIG WEST)
Vivint Arena(SLC, UT)
8. SMU
9. Indiana

5. Arizona
12. Marquette/Kansas State
Amway Center(Orlando, FL)
4. Virginia
13. NEW MEXICO STATE(WAC)

6. Purdue
11. NEVADA(MTN. WEST)
First Niagara Center(Buffalo, NY)
3. West Virginia
14. GEORGIA SOUTHERN(SUN BELT)

7. Michigan State
10. Virginia Tech
Golden 1 Center(Sacramento, CA)
2. UCLA
15. GREEN BAY(HORIZON)

Top 10 "S" Curve: Baylor, Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, UCLA, Kentucky, Florida State, Butler, North Carolina, Louisville.

Last 4 "BYES" : Miami, Iowa State, Virginia Tech, Texas Tech
Last 4 IN: Marquette, Wichita State, VCU, Kansas State
First 4 OUT: California, Michigan, Illinois, Pittsburgh
Next 4 OUT: Georgia, Providence, Georgia Tech, Rhode Island

 

[ericd7633]

Some really important "bracket" games today/tonight.

1st place on the line tonight in the MAAC when Monmouth(5-2 in MAAC) takes on Canisius(5-2)
North Carolina Central(2-1 in MEAC) takes on Hampton(3-0), for those interested game is at 7:00 on ESPNU
Green Bay(5-0) takes on Valparaiso(4-1) with 1st place potentially being on the line.
Kansas travels to Ames to take on Iowa State. A win would do wonders for ISU, a loss might have them on the outside looking in game is at 9:00 on ESPN.

Also, today already, Marquette missed on a huge opportunity for a road win at current #8 on the "S" curve Butler. How big of a win would that have been. With a win Marquette would be sitting at #54 in RPI, with the loss they will be #78 tomorrow give or take a few spots.

 

[jontaejones]

As of right now, there are no ACC teams on the top line.

I believe when all is said and done, there will be two ACC teams on the top line.

The B1G is a cluster-fuck, the winner could be as low as a 5 seed. Unheard of...

 

[ericd7633]

As of right now, there are no ACC teams on the top line.

I believe when all is said and done, there will be two ACC teams on the top line.

The B1G is a cluster-fuck, the winner could be as low as a 5 seed. Unheard of...

I think the ACC will at least get one #1 seed. I don't think Baylor and Kansas will both get on the top line. However, I do think if Gonzaga finishes with 0 or 1 loss they'll be a 1 seed. So that will only leave 3 spots. I would peg Nova(given resume and potential resume) and Kentucky(weakness of SEC) as the other two teams most likely to get a #1 seed. That'll leave the ACC winner/Big 12 winner fighting it out for the remaining #1 seed if it plays out how I think it's going too.

The B1G is a complete mess. Even if Wisconsin were to win out, it's not a guarantee they'd even be on the 2 line, which is saying something. I think they probably would, but crunching the #'s it isn't a guarantee IMO.

 

[jontaejones]

I think the ACC will at least get one #1 seed. I don't think Baylor and Kansas will both get on the top line. However, I do think if Gonzaga finishes with 0 or 1 loss they'll be a 1 seed. So that will only leave 3 spots. I would peg Nova(given resume and potential resume) and Kentucky(weakness of SEC) as the other two teams most likely to get a #1 seed. That'll leave the ACC winner/Big 12 winner fighting it out for the remaining #1 seed if it plays out how I think it's going too.

The B1G is a complete mess. Even if Wisconsin were to win out, it's not a guarantee they'd even be on the 2 line, which is saying something. I think they probably would, but crunching the #'s it isn't a guarantee IMO.

It will be interesting to see how faithful the committee is to the RPI this year.

For example, Butler is #5 in the RPI but a 4th seed in Lunardi's latest bracket.

UCLA is #17 in RPI but you know the NCAA is dying to make them a top 2 seed.

Tough decisions ahead, if those teams keep winning that is...

 

[ericd7633]

It will be interesting to see how faithful the committee is to the RPI this year.

For example, Butler is #5 in the RPI but a 4th seed in Lunardi's latest bracket.

UCLA is #17 in RPI but you know the NCAA is dying to make them a top 2 seed.

Tough decisions ahead, if those teams keep winning that is...

Yeah it will be. And is that his latest updated one? I can't see any way they would not at worst be a 3 seed in regards to Butler.

There have been instances where the committee will overlook RPI but that's usually when a team has a gaudy record in a P6 league. Which could be Kentucky this year.

 

[ericd7633]

Vermont moves to 5-0 in the American East. They could potentially be a dangerous 13/14 seed if they make the tournament.

 

[tducey]

Thanks for posting this, interesting that 2 months from now the NCAA basketball tournament will be starting, hard to believe.

 

[dcZONAfan]

Welp WVU just lost at least one seed line with that one. Losing to a really shitty Oklahoma team at home? WOW

 

[ericd7633]

Welp WVU just lost at least one seed line with that one. Losing to a really shitty Oklahoma team at home? WOW

Their metric numbers are amazing. Their resume not so much. Losing to a +100 team isn't going to help their resume either. Their RPI projects to drop from 22 to 38. A loss like this might cost them 2 seed lines. They will be an interesting case test come selection Sunday. Their metrics will say they are a 2 seed but their resume will say they are probably closer to a 5/6 seed.

 

[kramer1]

Bearcats keep rolling...Can they get a 4 seed?

 

[ericd7633]

Bearcats keep rolling...Can they get a 4 seed?

I'm sure they can get there, but there's almost no margin for error. Their problem is the lack of marquee wins they'll have going into selection Sunday. As of now, they only have 2 wins against my projected field(this was before ISU lost Monday). And I'm not so sure ISU will end up in the tournament either(1-5 against my projected field). ISU will have better metrics because of their so called "good" losses(Margin of defeat, excluding the Iowa game). For example 23 in KenPom, 23 in BPI, 22 in Sagarin. But there's no way they have a resume of that of a 5/6 seed. I think SMU will be a tournament team even if they get swept by Cincy. They're projected to finish 25-6. However, I don't think they can get higher than a 7 seed, even with that type of record.

 

[ericd7633]

Some important "bracket" games tonight:

Richmond(11-6, 5-0) @ Dayton(13-4, 4-1) - 7:00(ESPNU)
South Carolina Upstate(12-8, 2-1) @ Florida Gulf Coast(14-5, 3-0) - 7:00(ESPN3)
UNC-Wilmington(17-2, 6-0) @ College of Charleston(15-4, 6-0) - 7:00
Jacksonville State(12-8, 4-1) @ Belmont(11-4, 5-0) - 8:00
UNC Asheville(13-6, 5-1) @ Winthrop(13-4, 5-1) - 9:00(ESPNU)

 

[osubuckeye89]

You can go ahead and take VCU out

They lost to Fordham last night (8-11 #216 in Kenpom)

This after dropping to a mediocre 9-7 Davidson team on Saturday.

Miami got slaughtered by Wake Forest so they drop a notch as well.

 

[ericd7633]

You can go ahead and take VCU out

They lost to Fordham last night (8-11 #216 in Kenpom)

This after dropping to a mediocre 9-7 Davidson team on Saturday.

Miami got slaughtered by Wake Forest so they drop a notch as well.

Yes VCU will almost assuredly be out of my next bracket projection.

Miami more than likely will as well, although I won't be updating my next bracket til late January. Obviously a lot will happen by then.

 

[jontaejones]

Bearcats keep rolling...Can they get a 4 seed?

If Cincy can run the table (which they won't), they might be able to climb as high as a 3 seed I would say.

 

[osubuckeye89]

The CAA could end up getting 2 teams if UNC-Wilmington keeps winning, but fails to win the CAA tourney.

 

[redseat]

Duke at # 4 huh? Pretty high imo... But i'll take it

 

[ericd7633]

The CAA could end up getting 2 teams if UNC-Wilmington keeps winning, but fails to win the CAA tourney.

They could, but it'll be close. They won't have a top 50 win. My guess would be that there's never been an instance a team has received an at-large bid with zero top 50 wins. Their best win would be CofC or St. Bonaventure.

 

[ericd7633]

Duke at # 4 huh? Pretty high imo... But i'll take it

They were the worst 4 in this version of the bracket, which would put them at 16 on the "S" curve. At this point, you can probably make a case for Arizona being ahead of them now, but when I did this on Monday, Arizona was only 1-2 against the top 50. And maybe Maryland and Cincy? But they only have a combined 2 wins against teams in this bracket.