2016 Free Agency Discussion

[averagejoe]

My early thoughts...

Brock Osweiler - signs with Texans. Not overly impressed with him. With all of the weapons available in Denver, and having an offensive-minded head coach, he seemed hesitant to throw to Demaryius Thomas in double coverage. Averaged a measly 250 ypg in that offense. Now he goes to the Texans with a less-experienced head coach and arguably less weaponry.

Matt Forte - signs with Jets. Forte has always been pretty dependable. I'm confident he'll do well with his opportunities. Early word from the Jets is Bilal Powell will handle 3rd-down work which is a shame since Forte is a good receiving back. The QB situation could be a concern.

Lamar Miller - also a Texan. I mentioned this on another thread: I looked at his game log, and he only had 7 games with more than 12 rush attempts. For a RB that averages 4.6 ypc, why wouldn't you lean on him more? (Probably a reason why they fired their head coach.) If Brock O. turns out to be "average" it could work out for Miller's benefit.

Chris Ivory - signs with Jaguars. Doesn't exactly give a ringing endorsement of confidence to Yeldon. Especially since they immediately pledge that they'll split carries. Still not sure what to make of this situation. Seems like the Jags are committed to improving the run-game which may affect Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns' touches the most.

C.J. Anderson - signs with Dolphins. Nearly days after the Miami Herald reported that Ajayi can be a 3-down back, they sign Anderson. A young 24 year-old Anderson comes in averaging an impressive 4.7 ypc. Could be a headache of a RBBC unless Adam Gase turns this unit into scoring machine. Or maybe Gase wants Tannehill to throw less?

DeMarco Murray - traded to Tennessee. Followed up an impressive 2014 season with a regrettable 2015 season. A mobile QB in Mariota may actually help him. Murray has had trouble playing an entire season except for the 2014 season. He could be a low risk value in a weak division but he needs to separate himself on the Titans depth chart early. And should.

Coby Fleener - signs with Saints. The knock on him is his drops. 35 year-old Ben Watson had 110 targets for the Saints last season. Fleener should get plenty of looks in that offense. Will he be Jimmy Graham 3.0 for 2016?

Ladarius Green - signs with Steelers. What is puzzling me most is why did the Bolts decide to resign 35 year-old Antonio Gates instead of 25 year-old Green? My gut says that San Diego saw something in Green they didn't like. I like the signing, especially with Heath Miller calling it a career. But now the Steelers need to throw to the TE, something they did only 18% of the time (6th-fewest of all teams). And they threw a TD to the TE even less.

Travis Benjamin - signs with San Diego. If he can do well as a WR1 in an anemic Browns offense, then he should do no worse as a WR2 in a pass-happy Chargers offense. But being a WR2 in SD means that Keenan Allen and Antonio Gates still get first looks.

Marvin Jones - signs with Lions. Megatron hangs 'em up and Optimus Prime saves Motown. I've never been a fan of Golden Tate (who depended on Calvin Johnson to draw the coverage). With Johnson gone, I'm curious to see how the 300 or so targets will be divided up between Tate and Jones? My initial thought is that neither will be consistent and there will be some lean weeks they alternate peak weeks on the Tate-Jones roller coaster.

Mohamed Sanu - signs with Falcons. He steps into Roddy White's role. He could steal looks from Julio Jones. So instead of Jones getting another 200 targets, he may only get 175 or so. BTW, Roddy did have 70 targets in that offense so it may realistically be a matter of what Sanu does with the targets.

 

[TREFF]

Joe, you beat me to it. Ever since Wednesday morning when the first shoe fell I've been planning in doing this very same thing, but haven't had the time to sit and give it the thought it deserves. .kudos to you for finding that time.

That being said a few thoughts on your points.

I think Brock is a very capable QB. As it pertains to DT, Thomas had 1 score with Peyton in 7 games, 5 with Brock in 8 games, including one 2 score game. The fact you brought up of not throwing into double coverage to get him the ball is a positive in my opinion. DT is a very near elite WR, but he's not the guy you throw to no matter what, especially when you've got Emmanuel Sanders on the other side smoking one on one coverage regularly. Now, sure he's got issues, chiefly he needs to find a way to adjust to what defenses are doing. He starts out great, but once the defense adjusts, he doesn't. So that needs to greatly improve. But as to the raw stats, I think that's more an effect of Kubiak's offense than it is an inability on Brock's part to get the job done.

As to Forte..I just shake my head at the Jets saying Powell is still part off the plan at all, let alone the probable 3rd down guy. They'll waste his talent just like they've done to virtually everyone else they've had in the past couple decades.

Miller-I can't figure out what O'Brien and Godsey have planned, but imho, with Brock and Miller now paired with Hopkins, it's going to be better than it was. I'm more of a buyer on Miller the Texan than I ever was Miller the Dolphin.

Ivory- Yeldon's dynasty value just took a bigger dive than Megatron's. I'm glad to say I was on record saying the Yeldon wasn't the answer, now it's proven he isn't. I'm not buying for a second the Jags coaching staff talking about a spilt. The only way Yeldon gets meaningful touches is an Ivory injury.

CJ Anderson- Elway and Co. Dropped the ball big time here. That being said, the Phins aren't the Broncos, Tranny isn't a great QB, and they have no real playmakers to move the defense outside the numbers. We saw last year how great Anderson is when the defense isn't spread out. .he lost his job to Hillman. (Only after Brock took over and reopened the outside throwing game did the running lanes re-appear and let CJ get that 6+ ypc. Not a buyer on anything in Miami for 2016.

Not much to say about Murray, but I don't think he'll have any issues asserting himself at the top, and at least in Tenn., he won't have a mad scientist screwing with his touches, or a co-#1 stealing them outright.

Fleener? Meh, he moves up a few notches, but nothing special, he's still Coby Fleener.

Ladarius Green I find interesting though. He reminds me alot of an ex Cowboy TE, the guy who was supposed to replace an aging Witten, Martellus Bennett. Witten is still a Cowboy, while Bennett will soon be on his third team. Why? Not for lack of talent, but there's something missing from his drive, or commitment, or passion. .something isn't there. I see the same thing from Green, reinforced now that the Chargers decided to let him move on. With Big Ben, Bell, MartyB, and Antonio, that offense is going to score, and I'm sure Green will get his share in a few games, but there won't be enough balls to go around for long, and I have a feeling Green mails it in sooner than later.

Benjamin- excellent buy for SD, and I don't think he'll be the #2. Maybe from an X's and O's standpoint, but I'd put a small wager he is the better fantasy receiver to have from SD.

Jones- meh, won't come close to filling Calvin's shoes, but might be good enough over there to keep Golden Tate somewhat relevant. Stafford still takes a big hit.

Sanu-meh again. Probably do better than Roddy last year, but my money is on the Falcons drafting a strong outside receiver and if that guy is worth his salt, Sanu goes from the Roddy White replacement to the new Harry Douglas.

 

[leftypower]

Great stuff guys !!!! All are good points. Keep it coming. ......

 

[averagejoe]

Treff, sorry I beat you to it. Loved the points you made as well.

I think Brock is a very capable QB. As it pertains to DT, Thomas had 1 score with Peyton in 7 games, 5 with Brock in 8 games, including one 2 score game. The fact you brought up of not throwing into double coverage to get him the ball is a positive in my opinion. DT is a very near elite WR, but he's not the guy you throw to no matter what, especially when you've got Emmanuel Sanders on the other side smoking one on one coverage regularly. Now, sure he's got issues, chiefly he needs to find a way to adjust to what defenses are doing. He starts out great, but once the defense adjusts, he doesn't. So that needs to greatly improve. But as to the raw stats, I think that's more an effect of Kubiak's offense than it is an inability on Brock's part to get the job done.

I must admit that I didn't do my due diligence on Demaryius Thomas before making my statements about Osweiler. Was mostly basing my thoughts on frustrated DT fantasy owners.

Under Manning (whose skills severely regressed), Thomas averaged 9.5 fantasy points in standard ESPN leagues. Under Osweiler, Thomas averaged 10.4 fantasy points. Nearly one whole point better.

But how much better? I still stand by my thoughts that Osweiler will be an average QB at best. (I won't be ranking him any higher than a QB2.) Besides his 250 ypg passing average which is average, he threw 6 INT compared to 11 TD.

Plus his sample size as a starter is short. In recent years, players that looked good with a small sample size didn't do as well as anticipated. And for a guy that I already consider average, that doesn't seem like it will turn out well.

 

[TREFF]

Oh I won't be praising B.O. to the point where I'd want him to be a part of my fantasy team, let's be clear there. But I think he'll be good enough to not have a negative effect on his teammates. Should be at least a small step up from Hoyer, although, he might not lock into Hopkins in the same way, but overall I think that'll balance out.

 

[leftypower]

From a statistical standpoint just how well did the running game perform under Brock ? I have Miller in one keeper league and although I know Houston is a different team from Denver - just wondering.

 

[averagejoe]

From a statistical standpoint just how well did the running game perform under Brock ? I have Miller in one keeper league and although I know Houston is a different team from Denver - just wondering.

Good question. Brock started the last 7 games for Denver. In those games, the Broncos rushed for 170, 179, 134, 34, 104, 113 and 210 for an average of 134.8 rush ypg. In the other 9 games, the Broncos averaged 86 rush ypg.

 

[TREFF]

I guess it should be noted that Denver can stilL match the Phins offer to Miller

 

[TREFF]

I guess it should be noted that Denver can stilL match the Phins offer to Miller

Correction-- Anderson, not Miller

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Some of my thoughts on a couple of the deals:

Brock - won't be going after him in any leagues next year, but if I did a 2 QB league, wouldn't mind him as my QB3. Hopkins is QB proof, just needs someone to put some air under it. Miller addition to Blue in the backfield at least has the makings of keeping defenses honest.

DeMarco Murray - thank god we will get to see ANOTHER chance for Ryan Mathews to stay healthy!!! The ultimate boom-bust RB pick next year, could easily put up RB1 numbers in Philly (7TDs in 6 starts last year and was active in the passing game), but could also just as easily sprain his labia and sit out the whole season (see 2012 and 2014)

I'm not ready to say Ivory to Jags spells doom and gloom to Yeldon or necessarily means less passing either - Jags will be game flow dependent again, so I'd guess we'll still see lots of passing in the 2nd halves. Defense has to stop somebody, and just when it looks like they will, they don't.

Fleener to Saints and Sanu to Falcons are the only TE/WR moves that I think will be good fits so far. Brees is still in NO next year, so he'll target his TEs frequently. I think Sanu is good enough to hold off a rookie or Justin Hardy for early downs. Falcons showed last year that the guy who gets down and dirty and plays the complete game is going to get the snaps opposite Julio. Probably still won't be fantasy relevant, unless you're in 14+ team leagues.

 

[averagejoe]

Chris Hogan - signs with Patriots. Maybe there is little fantasy relevance here? But if there is a team that can turn a nobody into a somebody it's the Pats. Rotoworld suggests that this may mean the end for Amendola. Of course, @TKOSpikes will probably be mad at the Bills organization if Hogan turns out to be a star for his divisional nemesis.

Mark Sanchez - traded to Broncos. Maybe I'm alone on Sanchez island, but I think he's been put into poor situations in his time with the Jets and Eagles. Maybe he doesn't even come close to starting for Denver, but I think he finally has a coach (former QB himself) that may actually help.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Chris Hogan - signs with Patriots. Maybe there is little fantasy relevance here? But if there is a team that can turn a nobody into a somebody it's the Pats. Rotoworld suggests that this may mean the end for Amendola. Of course, @TKOSpikes will probably be mad at the Bills organization if Hogan turns out to be a star for his divisional nemesis.

Mark Sanchez - traded to Broncos. Maybe I'm alone on Sanchez island, but I think he's been put into poor situations in his time with the Jets and Eagles. Maybe he doesn't even come close to starting for Denver, but I think he finally has a coach (former QB himself) that may actually help.

Chris (or as I like to call him), Hulk Hogan is a fearless, shifty, gutsy player. Team first. Sure, he lacks WR1 talent, but he makes up for it with heart. He will make a great Welker/Edelman player for Brady.

....yes, I'm disgusted.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

the Hogan thing is looking eerily similar to Welker leaving Miami for the Patriots.
Does he have the same quicks in and out of cuts?
probably not, but that doesn't mean that McDaniels/Brady won't be able to get him the ball.

No name player that still has a few prime seasons left - seems like a wet dream for the Hoodie.

My buddy that's a Bills fan had a similar disgust to the news as you @TKOSpikes
He didn't think the Bills were going to do much in FA after locking up Crazy Incognito

 

[TKOSpikes]

the Hogan thing is looking eerily similar to Welker leaving Miami for the Patriots.
Does he have the same quicks in and out of cuts?
probably not, but that doesn't mean that McDaniels/Brady won't be able to get him the ball.

No name player that still has a few prime seasons left - seems like a wet dream for the Hoodie.

My buddy that's a Bills fan had a similar disgust to the news as you @TKOSpikes
He didn't think the Bills were going to do much in FA after locking up Crazy Incognito

What Hogan lacks to Welker's agility, he gains with straight speed and strength... yes, he'll fit in well.

As for Incognito, I'm on his side. Not for what he said or how he acted in Miami or anywhere else, but for how he's been since he's been here. Pro bowler. We definitely needed him back. Very happy with that signing.

 

[TREFF]

I love Incognito. Perhaps I'm a little biased being a Husker guy, but he's the prototypical hate him when he's on someone else's team, love him when he's on yours, type of player

 

[TREFF]

Chris Hogan - signs with Patriots. Maybe there is little fantasy relevance here? But if there is a team that can turn a nobody into a somebody it's the Pats. Rotoworld suggests that this may mean the end for Amendola. Of course, @TKOSpikes will probably be mad at the Bills organization if Hogan turns out to be a star for his divisional nemesis.

Mark Sanchez - traded to Broncos. Maybe I'm alone on Sanchez island, but I think he's been put into poor situations in his time with the Jets and Eagles. Maybe he doesn't even come close to starting for Denver, but I think he finally has a coach (former QB himself) that may actually help.

Not much if an opinion on Hogan, other than I'd Amendola becomes a cap causality, then he'll be on my radar.

But Sanchize? Even if Denver doesn't still get Kap, or draft a high round pick and he's all they got. .bad news for everyone involved

 

[Stomp]

seasons/2016/freeagency - nfl

 

[averagejoe]

C.J. Anderson - signs with Dolphins. Nearly days after the Miami Herald reported that Ajayi can be a 3-down back, they sign Anderson. A young 24 year-old Anderson comes in averaging an impressive 4.7 ypc. Could be a headache of a RBBC unless Adam Gase turns this unit into scoring machine. Or maybe Gase wants Tannehill to throw less?

As lefty mentioned on another thread, Denver matched Miami's offer.
That practically catapults Jay Ajayi as the starter in Miami.
I would also say that Anderson's value takes a hit staying in Denver, as it seems he and Hillman may have the same workload they each had last season.

And while we're on Denver, they still have to find a QB. Will it be Kaepernick? Or RG3? Or Sanchez? Foles may be let go. Options are thin and not very promising. From a fantasy perspective, you'd have to think that this hurts Demaryius and Emmanuel.

Spoiler

Treff's response to Denver's problems

 

[averagejoe]

Almost forgot...

Mike Wallace signs with Ravens. He went from marginally relevant on the Vikes to extinct on the Ravens. Unless I'm missing something, Steve Smith is still "the man" in Balrimore. And Kamar Aiken did well enough when Smith went down to rack up 75 receptions and almost 1K yards. Wallace does give them depth, but I see Smith and Aiken getting most of the looks.

 

[TREFF]

I dunno Joe. .Wallace is sort of an enigma. He wasn't semi relevant in Pit. Because he was a good WR, rather he was great at taking the lid off, and had a QB that could take advantage of that. In Minnesota, he still could, but the QB wasnt exactly a risk taker. Now in Baltimore, Flacco definitely cam outthrow coverage, but can Wallace still outrun it? Smith is still the guy, but age is finally catching up with his durability. Wallace could just be a deep threat / insurance policy, one that would make for sneaky good streaming. ..if you guess the right week. And a very nice grab should Smith, or Aiken, go down