Bracketology - End Of January Edition

[ericd7633]

Midwest Region(Cleveland, OH)

1. KENTUCKY(SEC)
16. ST FRANCIS(NY)(NEC)/NMSU(WAC)
KFC Yum!Center (Louisville, KY)
8. Xavier
9. Stanford

5. Butler
12. GREEN BAY(HORIZON)
Key Arena(Seattle, WA)
4. Iowa State
13. KENT STATE(MAC)

6. Oklahoma
11. Old Dominion/George Washington
Century Link Center(Omaha, NE)
3. Louisville
14. NCCU(MEAC)

7. SAN DIEGO STATE(MWC)
10. Texas A&M
Nationwide Arena(Columbus, OH)
2. WISCONSIN(B1G)
15. SOUTH DAKOTA ST(SUMMIT)

East Regional(Syracuse, NY)

1. VIRGINIA(ACC)
16. NORTH FLORIDA(ATLANTIC SUN)/SAC ST(BIG SKY)
Time Warner Cable Arena(Charlotte, NC)
8. Georgia
9. Oklahoma State

5. Maryland
12. WOFFORD(SOUTHERN)
Consol Enegy Center(Pittsburgh, PA)
4. West Virginia
13. YALE(IVY)

6. Texas
11. Colorado State
Consol Enegy Center(Pittsburgh, PA)
3. Villanova
14. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN(SOUTHLAND)

7. Arkansas
10. TULSA(AAC)
Nationwide Arena(Columbus, OH)
2. Notre Dame
15. GEORGIA SOUTHERN(SUN BELT)

West Regional(Los Angeles, CA)

1. GONZAGA(WCC)
16. TEXAS SO(SWAC)
Key Arena(Seattle, WA)
8. Indiana
9. LSU

5. Baylor
12. WESTERN KENTUCKY(C-USA)
Moda Center(Portland, OR)
4. Utah
13. IONA(MAAC)

6. PROVIDENCE(BIG EAST)
11. Davidson/Ole Miss
KFC Yum! Center(Louisville, KY)
3. WICHITA STATE(MVC)
14. WILLIAM & MARY(CAA)

7. Ohio State
10. Dayton
Time Warner Cable Arena(Charlotte, NC)
2. Duke
15. LONG BEACH STATE(BIG WEST)

South Regional(Houston, TX)

1ARIZONA(PAC 12)
16. BUCKNELL(PATRIOT)
Moda Center(Portland, OR)
8. Cincinnati
9. Michigan State

5. Georgetown
12. Miami(Fl)
Jacksonville VMA(Jacksonville, FL)
4. VCU(A-10)
13. MURRAY STATE(OVC)

6. Northern Iowa
11. Seton Hall
Jacksonville VMA(Jacksonville, FL)
3. UNC
14. HIGH POINT(BIG SOUTH)

7. SMU
10. Iowa
Century Link Center(Omaha, NE)
2. KANSAS(BIG 12)
15. ALBANY(AM EAST)

Last 4 Byes: Iowa, Miami(Fl), Seton Hall, Colorado State
Last 4 IN: George Washington, Davidson, Ole Miss, Old Dominion
First 4 OUT: St. John's, Washington, Temple, NC State
Next 4 OUT: Boise State, St. Mary's, Sryacuse, Kansas State

Top 10 on "S" Curve: Kentucky, Virginia, Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, Notre Dame, Duke, Wisconsin, Villanova, Louisville.

Bids by Conference:
AAC(3)
A10(4)
ACC(6)
Big 12(7)
Big East(6)
B1G(6)
MVC(2)
Mtn. West(2)
Pac 12(3)
SEC(6)

 

[ericd7633]

Top 4 Of Each Region:

Midwest:
1. Kentucky
2. Wisconsin
3. Louisville
4. Iowa State

East:
1. Virginia
2. Notre Dame
3. Villanova
4. West Virginia

West:
1. Gonzaga
2. Duke
3. Wichita State
4. Utah

South:
1. Arizona
2. Kansas
3. UNC
4. VCU

 

[Jim Rome is Flaming]

I wouldn't be thrilled about being in the same region as UK, but we have as good a chance as any at beating them.

 

[ericd7633]

I wouldn't be thrilled about being in the same region as UK, but we have as good a chance as any at beating them.

I would agree with that. I'm afraid, however, if Wisconsin doesn't get a 1 seed, the committee will stick them in the Midwest for geographical reasons. Could very well have the best 1 seed(UK) and the best 2 seed(Wisconsin) in the same region. Not saying that is right, but based on what they've done in the past, I think it's a realistic scenario.

Being a Wisconsin fan, as a preference, if they do end up on the 2 line, would you prefer Wisconsin playing closer to home or having an "easier" opponent such as Gonzaga or Arizona, but having to travel much further away?

 

[Smart]

I wouldn't be thrilled about being in the same region as UK, but we have as good a chance as any at beating them.

I can't see us being 8th on the S-curve today. I get that Kansas and Notre Dame have played much tougher schedules and have a similar record, but the committee will notice that Frank wasn't playing against Rutgers. That only leaves the Duke loss where they shot out of their minds. Considering the advanced metrics favor us, I think we are likely 5th on the S-curve as of today.

Obviously, it's still a long ways off, though. Considering how far the B1G is down, our margin of error is pretty small. This team can't surrender more than two losses between now and Selection Sunday.

As always, Eric did a good job. He always seems to outperform the pros and this year looks no different.

 

[Smart]

Being a Wisconsin fan, as a preference, if they do end up on the 2 line, would you prefer Wisconsin playing closer to home or having an "easier" opponent such as Gonzaga or Arizona, but having to travel much further away?

Cleveland and Columbus are 8 hours away from Madison. Houston and LA are both cheap airfare destinations. I don't think this is a close call. If either round were in Milwaukee, Chicago, or Minneapolis, I'd personally prefer that over the allegedly more favorable matchup.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

I can't see us being 8th on the S-curve today. I get that Kansas and Notre Dame have played much tougher schedules and have a similar record, but the committee will notice that Frank wasn't playing against Rutgers. That only leaves the Duke loss where they shot out of their minds. Considering the advanced metrics favor us, I think we are likely 5th on the S-curve as of today.

Obviously, it's still a long ways off, though. Considering how far the B1G is down, our margin of error is pretty small. This team can't surrender more than two losses between now and Selection Sunday.

As always, Eric did a good job. He always seems to outperform the pros and this year looks no different.

As Eric stated he placed Wisconsin with UK because of location that the committee tries to favor the top teams.

Wisco is definitely 5 on the curve or the best 2 seed right now. It just depends on how the committee decides to place teams.

 

[ericd7633]

I can't see us being 8th on the S-curve today. I get that Kansas and Notre Dame have played much tougher schedules and have a similar record, but the committee will notice that Frank wasn't playing against Rutgers. That only leaves the Duke loss where they shot out of their minds. Considering the advanced metrics favor us, I think we are likely 5th on the S-curve as of today.

Obviously, it's still a long ways off, though. Considering how far the B1G is down, our margin of error is pretty small. This team can't surrender more than two losses between now and Selection Sunday.

As always, Eric did a good job. He always seems to outperform the pros and this year looks no different.

Yeah IMO 5-8 on the S Curve are really razor thin. I went with Kansas, Duke and ND higher do to more quality wins(top 25 and 50 wins). I think ND has slightly less room for error than Wisconsin because of their non conf SOS, which is in the 330's. Another ND loss will have more effect on their RPI than a Wisconsin loss will(if it's to a similar like opponent) You are correct though Wisconsin does have a short margin for error as well. And I will admit the h2h between Duke and Wisconsin did come in to play, whether it should or not I don't know, since they are relatively close in resume right now.

 

[ericd7633]

Cleveland and Columbus are 8 hours away from Madison. Houston and LA are both cheap airfare destinations. I don't think this is a close call. If either round were in Milwaukee, Chicago, or Minneapolis, I'd personally prefer that over the allegedly more favorable matchup.

That's interesting. But that does make sense. If Cleveland is an 8 hour drive, and Houston and LA are cheap flights, it might not make that big of a difference, in terms of getting fans to the arena.

 

[ericd7633]

For the geography question I was just curious how fans of the tops teams felt. The Gophers haven't been a top team in almost 20 years, and back then the selecting process was different, with geography not playing a factor. It's s shame this isn't 2016 for Wisconsin, that year there is a regional in Chicago and Louisville.

 

[jontaejones]

Top 4 Of Each Region:

Midwest:
1. Kentucky
2. Wisconsin
3. Louisville
4. Iowa State

East:
1. Virginia
2. Notre Dame
3. Villanova
4. West Virginia

West:
1. Gonzaga
2. Duke
3. Wichita State
4. Utah

South:
1. Arizona
2. Kansas
3. UNC
4. VCU

They can't stick UVa with Notre Dame. The Irish would have to be in the Midwest to spread out the ACC.

I know, it's January. Forgive me.

Nice bracket, tho!

 

[mr.hockey4242]

They can't stick UVa with Notre Dame. The Irish would have to be in the Midwest to spread out the ACC.

I know, it's January. Forgive me.

Nice bracket, tho!

Yes, they can. That potential matchup isn't until the Elite 8.

They try to avoid inter conference before the sweet 16 if at all possible.

 

[jontaejones]

Yes, they can. That potential matchup isn't until the Elite 8.

They try to avoid inter conference before the sweet 16 if at all possible.

I think they try to spread out the first 3 teams.

A 1 and 2 seed from the same conference? Has it happened since expansion to 64? 1 in 3 they will do, but only if they have to.

I need to check real quick.
* Too lazy to check right now.

Silly to argue this at this juncture anyway. It's just a bracket. Bracket looks good.

 

[azchamps]

I believe Kentucky will go undefeated this year.

 

[ericd7633]

They can't stick UVa with Notre Dame. The Irish would have to be in the Midwest to spread out the ACC.

I know, it's January. Forgive me.

Nice bracket, tho!

I don't think its ideal to have them in the same region, but it gets really tough to avoid that particularly this year with the ACC being so top heavy. If you move them to the Midwest as the #2, you then have to move Louisville out of the Midwest and into the East. The ACC having at this point, IMO, 2 #2 seeds and 2 #3 seeds its hard to maneuver them around. I also could see a scenario on selection Sunday where UVA is a 1 seed and the ACC has 3 teams on the two line, depending how it plays out. Then what will they do? It would be interesting. I don't think that happens, but like I said the ACC being top heavy could cause some bracketing problems come selection Sunday.

 

[ericd7633]

I think they try to spread out the first 3 teams.

A 1 and 2 seed from the same conference? Has it happened since expansion to 64? 1 in 3 they will do, but only if they have to.

I need to check real quick.
* Too lazy to check right now.

Silly to argue this at this juncture anyway. It's just a bracket. Bracket looks good.

I can't recall it off the top of my head, but the committee has a much tougher job with the expansion of these conferences. It was easier for them to avoid it when there were 12 teams or less in every major conference. Now with conferences having 14 and even 15 teams in them its hard to avoid this. Either way given my seed projections at this point UVA could potentially be playing an ACC school in the E8 no matter what. Whether that would be ND as the #2, Louisville as the #3 or UNC as the #3.

 

[ericd7633]

I will say I love the debate, discussion and interaction doing this has caused. I'll try and release another one in a couple of weeks. I wanna try and get 2 done in February.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

I will say I love the debate, discussion and interaction doing this has caused. I'll try and release another one in a couple of weeks. I wanna try and get 2 done in February.

Yeah the ACC is going to make it interesting this year, not just because of the number of teams but because of the close grouping.

In years past it seemed like the committee really made an effort to avoid repeating regular season matchups, be it a conference team or not. I don't remember specific examples, but I do remember thinking on several occasions that it looked like they moved a particular team down a spot (usually to a better location) or up a spot (usually to a worse location) to avoid a regular season repeat.

I remember they had a particularly tough time a few years ago when the Big East got 17 of their 28 teams in. (only a slight exaggeration) I seem to recall Marquette playing a particularly early game against another Big East team in either the round of 32 or Sweet 16. Syracuse maybe? now I might have to go and look it up.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

Yep. 2011 Round of 32.

 

[lilchi721]

You don't think the NCAA won't match A&M and Texas in same region.