Chris Lincecum

[calsnowskier]

Is he a Beauty Pageant mom?

 

[Heathbar012]

Is he a Beauty Pageant mom?

Little League Dad, which is, in some ways, worse.

 

[Stokes1931]

Righetti diagnoses Lincecum: 'He?s just not defeating his challenges'

 

[msgkings322]

Righetti diagnoses Lincecum: 'He?s just not defeating his challenges'

Rags' comments only reinforce my gut feeling about Timmy. The dude is struggling, learning a new style. He should be thrilled with the chance to work on his game in a low risk place like the minors.

And if he's not he's a fucking idiot.

 

[SF11704]

Rags' comments only reinforce my gut feeling about Timmy. The dude is struggling, learning a new style. He should be thrilled with the chance to work on his game in a low risk place like the minors.

And if he's not he's a fucking idiot.

I tend to agree. I just hope that his struggles are because he's trying to learn a new system. But, my gut tells me that he still sees himself as Timmy 2008 and really doesn't quite accept or understand that this is not just a 'mechanics' problem and he'll be OK as soon as he figures it all out. From my perspective he's lost about 2mph per year since he was called up and I just don't think it's all mechanics. I just think he's lost velocity and that's all there is to it. Changing from a thrower to a pitcher isn't an easy transition especially if you still see yourself with a 95 mph heater that you feel is available on demand.

 

[1phlapdown]

Baggs: "It’s hard to imagine the Giants breaking free of their .500 treadmill until their ace figures it out. Lincecum’s last two defeats both stopped three-game winning streaks."

Sadly Timmy is still the Stopper, just in the wrong way.:frown:

 

[msgkings322]

Baggs: "It’s hard to imagine the Giants breaking free of their .500 treadmill until their ace figures it out. Lincecum’s last two defeats both stopped three-game winning streaks."

Sadly Timmy is still the Stopper, just in the wrong way.:frown:

Actually for me it's hard to imagine breaking free of .500 until Panda gets back. If Timmy is our 5th best starter, while that's really weird to contemplate, it's not enough for us to lose as many as we win.

 

[Heathbar012]

I tend to agree. I just hope that his struggles are because he's trying to learn a new system. But, my gut tells me that he still sees himself as Timmy 2008 and really doesn't quite accept or understand that this is not just a 'mechanics' problem and he'll be OK as soon as he figures it all out. From my perspective he's lost about 2mph per year since he was called up and I just don't think it's all mechanics. I just think he's lost velocity and that's all there is to it. Changing from a thrower to a pitcher isn't an easy transition especially if you still see yourself with a 95 mph heater that you feel is available on demand.

I don't think he sees it that way, and I definitely don't think he has been a thrower at any point in his ML career. Very few of what I would consider throwers even make it to the bigs anymore. You might be able to make a case for Aroldis Chapman, but even he understands changing up speeds and sight-lines.

Timmy has understood the ins and outs of how to get a guy out for a very long time. He used to do an excellent job of hitting his spots with the majority of his pitches, especially his change-up. That is an accuracy issue, and something that I would expect during a change in mechanics. The drop in velocity affects the potency of that great change, but not to the degree that loss of accuracy can hurt a good pitcher. I'm perfectly fine with him taking a couple turns in Fresno's rotation, but I think it's extremely short-sighted to believe that he thinks he can reach back and hit 95 anytime he wants or doesn't know where the pitch needs to be to get a great hitter out. That, to me, is a thrower. A thrower doesn't understand the importance of each pitch, and I think Timmy does.

I was laughed off the ESPN board three years ago when I suggested feeling out possible trade partners for Timmy, and I completely understood the immediate reaction. He was still under team control at a very cheap price. I was merely pointing to the unlikelihood that a person of his size and stature could continue to throw as hard as he does without major injury. I also didn't like how he arched his back in the middle of his motion, but that seems to have taken stress off of his shoulder and elbow, so I was probably wrong on that (though, I still foresee major back problems in his 30s). It turns out that hasn't been as much of an issue, but obviously, something has worn down over the years. What is to blame for that doesn't matter as much as what needs to be done moving forward.

Now, it seemingly doesn't make sense to trade him because his value is lower than it was 10-12 months ago, and it didn't make sense to trade him then because he was one of the faces of the franchise and only had one awful month in a year that the Giants won the World Series. If he rebounds from this with great mechanics and a Maddux-like approach, which I think he is capable of and had, to a certain extent, before (when he had the mid-90s heater at his disposal), then it won't make sense to trade him because the Giants will have yet another ace. If he continues to do poorly, his leverage for FA in 2013 will decrease, as will his trade value this off-season.

The cost-benefit analysis of all of this is better suited to gp and the other great economic/mathematical minds that inhabit this board, but trading him before next year's trade deadline is beginning to look like the likeliest/smartest of scenarios, no matter what he does.

 

[Heathbar012]

Actually for me it's hard to imagine breaking free of .500 until Panda gets back. If Timmy is our 5th best starter, while that's really weird to contemplate, it's not enough for us to lose as many as we win.

So right. I owe you rep. Baggs must be distracted by being back in the Midwest. Too much partying with old college buddies.

 

[msgkings322]

I don't think he sees it that way, and I definitely don't think he has been a thrower at any point in his ML career. Very few of what I would consider throwers even make it to the bigs anymore. You might be able to make a case for Aroldis Chapman, but even he understands changing up speeds and sight-lines.

Timmy has understood the ins and outs of how to get a guy out for a very long time. He used to do an excellent job of hitting his spots with the majority of his pitches, especially his change-up. That is an accuracy issue, and something that I would expect during a change in mechanics. The drop in velocity affects the potency of that great change, but not to the degree that loss of accuracy can hurt a good pitcher. I'm perfectly fine with him taking a couple turns in Fresno's rotation, but I think it's extremely short-sighted to believe that he thinks he can reach back and hit 95 anytime he wants or doesn't know where the pitch needs to be to get a great hitter out. That, to me, is a thrower. A thrower doesn't understand the importance of each pitch, and I think Timmy does.

I was laughed off the ESPN board three years ago when I suggested feeling out possible trade partners for Timmy, and I completely understood the immediate reaction. He was still under team control at a very cheap price. I was merely pointing to the unlikelihood that a person of his size and stature could continue to throw as hard as he does without major injury. I also didn't like how he arched his back in the middle of his motion, but that seems to have taken stress off of his shoulder and elbow, so I was probably wrong on that (though, I still foresee major back problems in his 30s). It turns out that hasn't been as much of an issue, but obviously, something has worn down over the years. What is to blame for that doesn't matter as much as what needs to be done moving forward.

Now, it seemingly doesn't make sense to trade him because his value is lower than it was 10-12 months ago, and it didn't make sense to trade him then because he was one of the faces of the franchise and only had one awful month in a year that the Giants won the World Series. If he rebounds from this with great mechanics and a Maddux-like approach, which I think he is capable of and had, to a certain extent, before (when he had the mid-90s heater at his disposal), then it won't make sense to trade him because the Giants will have yet another ace. If he continues to do poorly, his leverage for FA in 2013 will decrease, as will his trade value this off-season.

The cost-benefit analysis of all of this is better suited to gp and the other great economic/mathematical minds that inhabit this board, but trading him before next year's trade deadline is beginning to look like the likeliest/smartest of scenarios, no matter what he does.

If Timmy has truly devolved from ace to maybe a #3 type pitcher, this won't be as hard to bear

 

[tzill]

I tend to agree. I just hope that his struggles are because he's trying to learn a new system. But, my gut tells me that he still sees himself as Timmy 2008 and really doesn't quite accept or understand that this is not just a 'mechanics' problem and he'll be OK as soon as he figures it all out. From my perspective he's lost about 2mph per year since he was called up and I just don't think it's all mechanics. I just think he's lost velocity and that's all there is to it. Changing from a thrower to a pitcher isn't an easy transition especially if you still see yourself with a 95 mph heater that you feel is available on demand.

I wonder how many people remember Cain's 96mph fastball? Dudes lose velocity after they throw 1000 or so professional innings. Timmy's adjusting. He'll be fine.

 

[msgkings322]

I wonder how many people remember Cain's 96mph fastball? Dudes lose velocity after they throw 1000 or so professional innings. Timmy's adjusting. He'll be fine.

Man, if Kershaw or Kennedy or whomever were going through this you'd be crowing about how done they are.

 

[gp956]

I wonder how many people remember Cain's 96mph fastball? Dudes lose velocity after they throw 1000 or so professional innings. Timmy's adjusting. He'll be fine.

Verlander

 

[tzill]

Man, if Kershaw or Kennedy or whomever were going through this you'd be crowing about how done they are.

Probably not. I'd look to see how they adjust. This happens with some frequency. Just about every power pitcher I can think of lost velocity as he stayed in the majors. The good ones adjust and learn how to pitch.

 

[tzill]

Verlander

He may be an exception, but he'd be a rare one. Even then, it seems that he lost velocity in 2008 and then adjusted. He may have gained some/all of it back. That can happen too. IIRC, Randy Johnson was like that.

 

[msgkings322]

He may be an exception, but he'd be a rare one. Even then, it seems that he lost velocity in 2008 and then adjusted. He may have gained some/all of it back. That can happen too. IIRC, Randy Johnson was like that.

Nolan Ryan too. But they are rare exceptions, agreed.

I just wish I had your rock solid confidence Timmy the Ace is due back in July.

 

[tzill]

Nolan Ryan too. But they are rare exceptions, agreed.

I just wish I had your rock solid confidence Timmy the Ace is due back in July.

Oh, I don't know if we'll get Timmy the Ace -- we might. But we will get Timmy the Front of Rotation Starter. He's pretty close to putting it all together.

 

[OzzieGiant]

I wonder how many people remember Cain's 96mph fastball? Dudes lose velocity after they throw 1000 or so professional innings. Timmy's adjusting. He'll be fine.

I certainly fall into the Timmeh will be fine camp, what I am struggling with is what does this mean and what will his value be??

Let’s assume by fine we mean an above average SP maybe a solid no two or 3 (in some cases ace) on some clubs. Here he would be a 3 maybe 4. I just don’t see how we can pay a no 3 pitcher $20M per year, especially given the holes we have all over the field.

I have pretty much come to the conclusion Timmeh will be better value on other clubs unless he can return to close to the Timmeh of old.

That raises the question of when not if we move him. Given we need to do something with Melky and need to add two of 1B, SS Power corner I think that time is sooner rather than later.

In summary I think the real issue with Timmeh has more to do with whether he can be as good as or better than Cain and Madbum, if not we cant afford him.

 

[Heathbar012]

I certainly fall into the Timmeh will be fine camp, what I am struggling with is what does this mean and what will his value be??

Let’s assume by fine we mean an above average SP maybe a solid no two or 3 (in some cases ace) on some clubs. Here he would be a 3 maybe 4. I just don’t see how we can pay a no 3 pitcher $20M per year, especially given the holes we have all over the field.

I have pretty much come to the conclusion Timmeh will be better value on other clubs unless he can return to close to the Timmeh of old.

That raises the question of when not if we move him. Given we need to do something with Melky and need to add two of 1B, SS Power corner I think that time is sooner rather than later.

In summary I think the real issue with Timmeh has more to do with whether he can be as good as or better than Cain and Madbum, if not we cant afford him.

My guess is: if the Giants are 10 games back or more from a playoff spot (highly unlikely, but possible) on July 31st, then he is gone before the deadline. Any other scenario, and he will be traded before 2013's deadline. How soon depends on how much Timmy comes back and where the team finishes. If he finishes with a 3.75 or better ERA and 1.20 or better WHIP, I think it will be in the 2012/13 off-season. However, that depends on where the Giants finish. If they make it to the NLCS, I think they'll hold him til the deadline. Anything worse, and I believe he is gone. No matter what, I agree that he won't be under contract with the Giants prior to his off-season as a Free Agent (unless he pitches so horribly that you could get him for 3 years at less than $9 mil per, and I don't think that is going to happen). This, of course, is all speculation and opinion.

 

[tzill]

My guess is: if the Giants are 10 games back or more from a playoff spot (highly unlikely, but possible) on July 31st, then he is gone before the deadline. Any other scenario, and he will be traded before 2013's deadline. How soon depends on how much Timmy comes back and where the team finishes. If he finishes with a 3.75 or better ERA and 1.20 or better WHIP, I think it will be in the 2012/13 off-season. However, that depends on where the Giants finish. If they make it to the NLCS, I think they'll hold him til the deadline. Anything worse, and I believe he is gone. No matter what, I agree that he won't be under contract with the Giants prior to his off-season as a Free Agent (unless he pitches so horribly that you could get him for 3 years at less than $9 mil per, and I don't think that is going to happen). This, of course, is all speculation and opinion.

With the addition of the second wild card, I can't realistically see the Gs being out of it at either the 2012 or 2013 deadline. Thus, I seriously doubt they deal Freak. Now, they may choose not to match the market in 2013 (especially if the Ms step up with a big offer) but they won't trade away a huge draw like Tim during a playoff race. I think it's more likely we sign him to a five year extension this offseason.