Rookie RB's

[Clayton]

If you're not drafting to stash, I'd rank them:


1. Saquon. I expect him to be about on par with Kamara this year. Giants don't have to lean on him too him and there is explosive play potential.

2. Freeman. Locked in to RB#2 numbers, imo, just because the Broncos paved the way for him to play.

3. Jones. Not totally enamored with him as a football player but that burst is real, the Bucs O is actually pretty decent, and I really dont think much of his competition. Low workload is probably the only thing keeping we worried but I think there is a real shot for some big games despite a pretty terrible schedule.

4. Guice. I think he is a bit raw but Washington has a decent oline and a meh defense and Guice runs hard. RB2 upside but could run into the same issues as middle-season Hunt did last year when teams tried to solve Alex Smith and its just hard in general for me to picture Alex Smith without a pass catcher as a RB.

5. Penny. Not sure about his ability to catch but he is almost guaranteed to see action in Seattle. Seattle might not be as talented as Washington so Penny might suffer a bit.

6. Chubb. Like Freeman but with more competition and more upside. He'll beat out Hyde at some point but they paid Hyde for...some reason. I think he is the #2 talent in the draft, though, so maybe he is worth drafting once the team gives up on Hyde.

7. Michel. Part of the NE England Swiss Army knife. I personally think NE's D will be better this year and their O a little worse but Michel might have fumbling issues, might have knee issues....they did draft him for a reason but one of those reasons is probably because he can pass block.

8. Kerryon. Love the talent long-term. Don't love him next year with Blount there. Probably my #3 talent but...Lions.



There is a bigger gap between #1 and #2 than #2 and #8.

 

[eaglesnut]

If you're not drafting to stash, I'd rank them:


1. Saquon. I expect him to be about on par with Kamara this year. Giants don't have to lean on him too him and there is explosive play potential.

2. Freeman. Locked in to RB#2 numbers, imo, just because the Broncos paved the way for him to play.

3. Jones. Not totally enamored with him as a football player but that burst is real, the Bucs O is actually pretty decent, and I really dont think much of his competition. Low workload is probably the only thing keeping we worried but I think there is a real shot for some big games despite a pretty terrible schedule.

4. Guice. I think he is a bit raw but Washington has a decent oline and a meh defense and Guice runs hard. RB2 upside but could run into the same issues as middle-season Hunt did last year when teams tried to solve Alex Smith and its just hard in general for me to picture Alex Smith without a pass catcher as a RB.

5. Penny. Not sure about his ability to catch but he is almost guaranteed to see action in Seattle. Seattle might not be as talented as Washington so Penny might suffer a bit.

6. Chubb. Like Freeman but with more competition and more upside. He'll beat out Hyde at some point but they paid Hyde for...some reason. I think he is the #2 talent in the draft, though, so maybe he is worth drafting once the team gives up on Hyde.

7. Michel. Part of the NE England Swiss Army knife. I personally think NE's D will be better this year and their O a little worse but Michel might have fumbling issues, might have knee issues....they did draft him for a reason but one of those reasons is probably because he can pass block.

8. Kerryon. Love the talent long-term. Don't love him next year with Blount there. Probably my #3 talent but...Lions.



There is a bigger gap between #1 and #2 than #2 and #8.

4. Chris Thompson will catch the ball plenty. And the nature of Alex Smith will put a few in Guice's hands too.

 

[eaglesnut]

Not really on 2. Sure the nfl gets things wrong but if you want the easiest indicator of nfl success it's gonna be draft position.

Of course there would be some correlation just from an opportunities standpoint and from college production/athleticism of the earlier guys. But it is not very indicative.

Look for yourself

NFL.com Draft 2018 - NFL Draft History: Full Draft Year

Look at those top 10s each year. You'd reorder over half of it.

Plus these singular misses which are most relatable to our discussion here:
David Johnson 7th.
Jordan Howard 10th.
Devonta Freeman 9th.

 

[ehb5]

He runs like Trich, that's enough for me

So he runs like a great prospect?

I think he has a lot in common with Marshawn honestly.

 

[ehb5]

Of course there would be some correlation just from an opportunities standpoint and from college production/athleticism of the earlier guys. But it is not very indicative.

Look for yourself

NFL.com Draft 2018 - NFL Draft History: Full Draft Year

Look at those top 10s each year. You'd reorder over half of it.

Plus these singular misses which are most relatable to our discussion here:
David Johnson 7th.
Jordan Howard 10th.
Devonta Freeman 9th.

Of course you'd reorder every year. But just guessing the order they're drafted in is by far the most accurate way to go. Reality is we dont know more than nfl teams on most things. It is more fun to come up with our own rankings. I mean i had rojo last despite all this.

 

[eaglesnut]

Of course you'd reorder every year. But just guessing the order they're drafted in is by far the most accurate way to go. Reality is we dont know more than nfl teams on most things. It is more fun to come up with our own rankings. I mean i had rojo last despite all this.

Do an experiment and do last years top 10 draftees with darts. Then match it up with 2017 results. You'll be as close as the draft order was.

 

[TREFF]

So he runs like a great prospect?

I think he has a lot in common with Marshawn honestly.

suppose I could see a little of that. 'Member though, Lynch was on his way to bust status before being traded to Seattle

 

[ehb5]

Do an experiment and do last years top 10 draftees with darts. Then match it up with 2017 results. You'll be as close as the draft order was.

Ok now do that for 10 years. (Also every rb taken last year in the first 3 rounds hit or is very promising still so even last year wouldnt show anything.

 

[eaglesnut]

Ok now do that for 10 years. (Also every rb taken last year in the first 3 rounds hit or is very promising still so even last year wouldnt show anything.

I gave you all the past drafts and three years of individual examples. You mentioned the order they were drafted mattering for 2018. I'm showing you otherwise.

If you're now saying the order is irrelevant then Freeman being 8th drafted is irrelevant too.

Draft order doesn't determine fantasy production any more than my rankings do.

 

[Chef99]

He runs like Trich, that's enough for me

Did you say...TRich??

 

[ehb5]

I gave you all the past drafts and three years of individual examples. You mentioned the order they were drafted mattering for 2018. I'm showing you otherwise.

If you're now saying the order is irrelevant then Freeman being 8th drafted is irrelevant too.

Draft order doesn't determine fantasy production any more than my rankings do.

I mean...it quite literally does but you do you.

 

[eaglesnut]

I mean...it quite literally does but you do you.

The correlation isn't stronger than other factors.

Are you really still trying to deny that?

 

[ehb5]

The correlation isn't stronger than other factors.

Are you really still trying to deny that?

Please tell me what other factors have stronger correlations.

This is like arguing that a stock price is less indicative of a stock's value than a other factors. The stock price IS all the factors.

 

[eaglesnut]

Please tell me what other factors have stronger correlations.

This is like arguing that a stock price is less indicative of a stock's value than a other factors. The stock price IS all the factors.

I already gave you the draft lists with which to check your theory

It's not like your stock example at all. What would be analogous to your stock example is ADP. Do you not even understand that?

 

[Chef99]

 

[TREFF]

Please tell me what other factors have stronger correlations.

This is like arguing that a stock price is less indicative of a stock's value than a other factors. The stock price IS all the factors.

Hey


WR's are worthless

 

[ehb5]

I already gave you the draft lists with which to check your theory

It's not like your stock example at all. What would be analogous to your stock example is ADP. Do you not even understand that?

Yeaaaa people have done actual studies on this. Not naming a couple draft classes as you did.

It would apply to both actually.

 

[ehb5]

Hey


WR's are worthless

 

[ehb5]

Im the worlds worst millennial that took like 18 tries to do correctly

 

[eaglesnut]

Yeaaaa people have done actual studies on this. Not naming a couple draft classes as you did.

It would apply to both actually.

Super double secret studies.