Young QB debate - RWill stats vs ALuck stats

[SeattleOspreys]

Found a blog that looked worthy of off-season debate. Granted the opinionsare from Andrew Brandt, whatever, and while Tim Hasselbeck isn't bad, he doeslike the Hawks.I did find the statistics surprising and to me, corroborate RWill to having a bettersophomore season. Here goes with stats first and then evaluation.

2012 Luck Wilson vs. 8 Common Opp.

W-L 5-3 6-2
Attempts 364 213
Completions 197 137
Comp. pct. 54.1 64.3
Pass yards 2,573 1,742
Yds/att 7.1 8.2
Pass TD 14 17
INT 13 1
NFL rating 74.6 114.4
Sack pct. 5.2 5.6
Pass FD 120 84
Avg. pass dist. 10.1 9.3
30+ passes 10 10
Rushes 24 48
Rush yards 115 306
Rush TD 1 3
Rush FD 10 20
Fumbles 6 4
Fumbles lost 3 2
QB PAA +25.2 +40.2
QB PAR +61.8 +66.0
Total QBR 68.1 84.8
Source: ESPN Stats & Information

Unfortunately, from the copy, I couldn't edit into columns for ease of viewing. The stat that jumped
off the page is obviously RWill's 17 TD's thrown with only 1 pick while Luck had 14 td's and 13 picks.

Regarding the new QBR ranking. For the 1st half of the season, Luck was ranked 4th in NFL but in the final 8, Luck was ranked #20.

RWill on the other hand, was ranked #18 during the 1st half which is understandable but finished #1 in the NFL over the final 8 games.

 

[SeattleOspreys]

Oh, and Tim is stroking up Luck because of Matt....



ESPN's Tim Hasselbeck and Andrew Brandt think Andrew Luck will have the best second season as a starting quarterback in 2013 over Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III. They think it'll be close, however.

2012 Luck-Wilson vs. 8 Common Opp.

QBLuckWilsonW-L5-36-2Action plays441310Dropbacks397250Completions197137Attempts364213Comp. pct.54.164.3Pass yards2,5731,742Yards/attempt7.18.2Pass TD1417INT131NFL rating74.6114.4Sack pct.5.25.6Pass FD12084Avg. pass dist.10.19.330+ passes1010Rushes2448Rush yards115306Rush TD13Rush FD1020Fumbles64Fumbles lost32QB PAA+25.2+40.2QB PAR+61.8+66.0Total QBR68.184.8Source: ESPN Stats & Information



Hasselbeck, whose brother backs up Luck for the Indianapolis Colts, ranks Wilson a "close second" on his list, followed by Kaepernick and Griffin. He thinks receiver issues could help Wilson and hurt Kaepernick.

"His game is complete," Hasselbeck said of Wilson. "And he can run. He is an athletic quarterback. We see them do some of the read-option type stuff with him. Then you add Percy Harvin to the fold, who I think is one of the more dynamic players in the entire NFL. That is going to have a big impact on how he plays."

Brandt also had Luck first. He called Wilson and Griffin a toss-up for the second spot.

"I think Wilson and Griffin are two guys who elevate the whole team," Brandt said. "They have great character, they have great gifts, but they seem to make players better around them. If I had to flip a coin, I would agree with Tim, and Russell Wilson would be my No. 2."

The chart is one we discussed during the regular season as Wilson was gaining momentum and Luck slowed some after carrying his team.

Luck posted a 76.1 Total QBR score in his team's first eight games, fourth-highest in the NFL. That figure fell to 48.3, which ranked 20th, over the final eight. Wilson was at 53.0 (18th) in the first eight and 83.9 (first) in the final eight.

Kaepernick gets the short end of this discussion. He owns fewer starts than the others. He had the best supporting cast. Top receiver Michael Crabtree suffered a torn Achilles' tendon. Those factors could make analysts a little more cautious as they search for reasons to rank one player slightly ahead of another.

All four young quarterbacks exceeded reasonable expectations for first-year starters. All four appear to have bright futures. We might want to keep in mind Ryan Tannehill as well. He was slightly better than Luck in both Total QBR and NFL passer rating over the final eight games of the 2012 season.

"[Tannehill] isn't far behind those guys," ESPN.com NFL scout Matt Williamson said during a recent chat. "I don't throw the term 'franchise QB' around lightly, but Tannehill is/will be a franchise QB."

 

[SeattleOspreys]

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9473118

 

[CakesW]

The Hardest part of an evaluation like this is the fact that I don't think a single person on the planet would tell you that Indy's talent is even remotely close to that of the Seattle Seahawks.

Yes, i agree Wilson and Luck both "elevate their team", it's just that the Colts needed quite a bit more lifting in my opinion.

 

[SeattleOspreys]

The Hardest part of an evaluation like this is the fact that I don't think a single person on the planet would tell you that Indy's talent is even remotely close to that of the Seattle Seahawks.

Yes, i agree Wilson and Luck both "elevate their team", it's just that the Colts needed quite a bit more lifting in my opinion.

That's why I don't know why they like Luck to have the best 2nd season.

Hawks have a better OL, a better Running attack and now add Percy Harvin to the receiving corp? add in that RWill was #1 in QBR over the final 8 games and is still learning the NFL game. I say RWilson.

Had Kaep not lost Crabs, it'd be a toss up. I love RG3 but the wheels are a concern and Luck's surrounding cast and not a real elite arm to find those tight spaces, leaves RWilson standing.

You know I'm not a homer but straight objective corroborating poster, so RWill is objective.

What I did find surprising was the 17 td : 1 interception ratio for Wilson and the 14:13 which is 1:1 TD : Int ration For Luck over the 8 common games. That is a significant sample size. RWilson makes very good decisions and frankly, for a rookie, some of the best I've ever seen.

Heck, many of RWills 10 picks were balls bouncing inexplictly off the receivers mitts, especially a couple of quick screens.

RWilson is going to have a banner 2nd season from jumpstreet and it won't take him 1/2 a season to figure out the playbook and defensive schemes.

 

[Wolverine830872]

I'd have to say I agree. Sure its easy to say that Luck has the better pedigree than Wilson and therefore has the higher ceiling and is all-around better, the simple fact that the Hawks roster outshines the Colts roster makes all the difference in the world.

I'm calling it right now though, once Wilson's numbers outpace Luck's, the talking headings will start talking about the difference in roster talent and how Luck is still better

 

[RoboticDreams]

I'd have to say I agree. Sure its easy to say that Luck has the better pedigree than Wilson and therefore has the higher ceiling and is all-around better, the simple fact that the Hawks roster outshines the Colts roster makes all the difference in the world.

I'm calling it right now though, once Wilson's numbers outpace Luck's, the talking headings will start talking about the difference in roster talent and how Luck is still better

Luck is better. The Colts are nowhere near the team that the Hawks are. I'd venture a guess that his interception numbers will dramatically decrease, while his TD numbers will increase. I think he will have a stellar year.

 

[Jikkle]

Luck vs RGIII/Kaep/RW is a tough one because of the offenses they ran

RGIII vs Kaep vs RW is a fair comparison because they largely had the same offensive philosophy and held the 1st, 3rd, and 4th spots in total rushing and it probably would've been 1-3 if AP didn't have as stellar of a year as he had.

Luck had nowhere near of as an effective rushing attack as those 3 QBs did last season.

My point being is that when your rushing attack is that good it makes it a lot easier on a QB in the passing game. Defenses creep forward and put more people closer to the LOS to stop the run, play action is more effective, and not to mention the threat of those QBs running make it harder on a defense as well (not that Luck is a statue in the pocket but he's not on the level of the other 3).

It's a case of splitting hairs when it comes to saying who'll be better as all of them are showing their arrows are trending upwards and it probably won't be for another 2 or 3 years till they start to separate themselves out.

 

[Wolverine830872]

Luck is better. The Colts are nowhere near the team that the Hawks are. I'd venture a guess that his interception numbers will dramatically decrease, while his TD numbers will increase. I think he will have a stellar year.

Luck is still limited by his team. I think he will have better numbers this year but he will still have a ton of picks as he will be playing from behind a lot and will have to force the ball downfield to try to get his team back in games

 

[SeattleOspreys]

Luck had nowhere near of as an effective rushing attack as those 3 QBs did last season.

My point being is that when your rushing attack is that good it makes it a lot easier on a QB in the passing game. Defenses creep forward and put more people closer to the LOS to stop the run, play action is more effective, and not to mention the threat of those QBs running make it harder on a defense as well (not that Luck is a statue in the pocket but he's not on the level of the other 3).

It's a case of splitting hairs when it comes to saying who'll be better as all of them are showing their arrows are trending upwards and it probably won't be for another 2 or 3 years till they start to separate themselves out.

Jik, I think you didn't read the article or my response in #5.

The article is forecasting who will have the best 2nd year. Thus, it's not about splitting hairs to determine in 2 or 3 years. Make your case 4 NEXT year.

Regarding my comments in #5, that is EXACTLY why I have RWill as having the BEST 2nd year. OL, running attack, PHarvin addition. Yes, play action is very obvious.

Based on your comments, reads like your on board for RWill having the best 2nd season.

 

[yossarian]

The Hardest part of an evaluation like this is the fact that I don't think a single person on the planet would tell you that Indy's talent is even remotely close to that of the Seattle Seahawks.

Yes, i agree Wilson and Luck both "elevate their team", it's just that the Colts needed quite a bit more lifting in my opinion.

That's exactly right. Seattle is touted as being the best team in the league now, top to bottom. No one is saying that about the Colts.

 

[CakesW]

Being from central North Carolina, I've really liked Russell Wilson for years...

The main knock on him in my eyes, really isn't a knock at all.. it's basically a compliment.

That being... I don't see Russell Wilson EVER getting marketably better than he is right now. I know some will take that as a supreme slap in the face, but it isn't.

He was one of the rare athletes where he came into the league as Ready as he would ever be, and played probably as good as he will ever play. I don't expect a significant improvement from him, but more importantly, I don't see a significant drop from him.


I'm pretty sure if you asked any Seattle fan if they would take a duplicate of the 2012 Season, not a single one of them would be dissapointed if he repeated those numbers.

 

[yossarian]

Being from central North Carolina, I've really liked Russell Wilson for years...




I'm pretty sure if you asked any Seattle fan if they would take a duplicate of the 2012 Season, not a single one of them would be dissapointed if he repeated those numbers.

Not the first 5-6 games, but the last 11, sure.

 

[CakesW]

Not the first 5-6 games, but the last 11, sure.

Irrelevant....

His Final numbers were a 100 QB Rating... and a 69.4 QBR...

Which is high rent district for an entire season...


Nobody is asking anybody to cherry pick his best games etc...


If Russell Wilson ends up with a 100 QB Rating for 2013, with a 69.4 QBR.... I'm sure Seahawk Fans would be exstatic.

 

[yossarian]

Irrelevant....

His Final numbers were a 100 QB Rating... and a 69.4 QBR...

Which is high rent district for an entire season...


Nobody is asking anybody to cherry pick his best games etc...


If Russell Wilson ends up with a 100 QB Rating for 2013, with a 69.4 QBR.... I'm sure Seahawk Fans would be exstatic.

Not entirely irrelevant, because it still amounts to a smaller sample size of excellence. It's the same criticism of Kaepernick, that he only started 10 games (although those 10 games for the most part were pretty damn good).

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Being from central North Carolina, I've really liked Russell Wilson for years...

The main knock on him in my eyes, really isn't a knock at all.. it's basically a compliment.

That being... I don't see Russell Wilson EVER getting marketably better than he is right now. I know some will take that as a supreme slap in the face, but it isn't.

He was one of the rare athletes where he came into the league as Ready as he would ever be, and played probably as good as he will ever play. I don't expect a significant improvement from him, but more importantly, I don't see a significant drop from him.


I'm pretty sure if you asked any Seattle fan if they would take a duplicate of the 2012 Season, not a single one of them would be dissapointed if he repeated those numbers.

I can't really agree with that, Cakes. Nobody comes into the league as ready as they'll ever be. In fact I saw marked improvement from Wilson from the start of the season to the end of the season.

I'll give you an example early on when Wilson left the pocket, he would run into the direction his blockers were pushing the DL to and he ended up getting sacked. Not only that but he also ran in the same direction when he left the pocket early in the season. Later he learn to spin and go the other way.

They be lots of small things he'll learn to do better, like resetting his blockers when needed, going thru his reads faster etc.

Now some of his stat make not look better. For example the two you used "100 QB Rating... and a 69.4 QBR..." However he will be better and will continue to get better.

Now some other QBs may make a bigger leap forward from last year, because they were not as NFL ready. Regradless, I think Seahawks fans will being loving their QB

 

[SeattleOspreys]

Being from central North Carolina, I've really liked Russell Wilson for years...

The main knock on him in my eyes, really isn't a knock at all.. it's basically a compliment.

That being... I don't see Russell Wilson EVER getting marketably better than he is right now. I know some will take that as a supreme slap in the face, but it isn't..

That's a compliment? Honey, you really don't look that fat in that dress. I just don't EVER see you
getting into that spaghetti strap summer dress. Not too far off...
Is RWill going to grow? No. Is he going to develop a rocket arm? No. Does he need to? No. I guess
the variable is what you consider "marketably better". The growth from RWill's first 5 games to the
last 11 was dramatic.

It's the experience of knowing the offense. It's the implementation of the read/option that he never used in college, it's the improved timing of receivers for 2013, it's the leadership and control he
took of the team that starts from jumpstreet.

Hawks NEVER lose game #1 last year to Zona with an experienced RWill. 4 shots at the endzone with
minimal time left. He finds a way to get the rock in the endzone and guess what? That's the
difference from a 2 seed and a 5th seed.

Based on those above improvement areas for a full season makes RWill "marketably better" in 2013.

He was one of the rare athletes where he came into the league as Ready as he would ever be, and played probably as good as he will ever play. I don't expect a significant improvement from him, but more importantly, I don't see a significant drop from him..

To say RWill has a "high floor" is accurate. To say RWill has a "low ceiling" is jumping the gun at
this early tenure with the surrounding talent the Hawks have and the continuity he'll have in year
2. Again, it comes back to your definition of "significant improvement".

If you can quantify what "marketably and significant" actual mean as attributed Win improvement, Passing yard improvement, TD to interceptions and overall command of the team for 16 games
would make it easier to converse.


Why I say he will improve and play better than he did last year is because of the early season losses
that would be wins this year. As stated, Zona in week 1. So just having 16 games to do what he showed in the final 8 - 11 will be enough improvement to carry the Hawks to the mtn top that we've never experienced.

I'm pretty sure if you asked any Seattle fan if they would take a duplicate of the 2012 Season, not a single one of them would be dissapointed if he repeated those numbers.

Well, that didn't take long for 1 fan to be disappointed if he had a duplicate of 2012. I believe we'll
see more play action, while being a pound the rock based O, I don't see a 60/40 type split but
more balanced. RWill has shown he can carry and lead the Hawks in crunch time. i.e. Bears and the
385 yds passing against the Falcons. Bevell needs to think "bury" the opponents early and then use
Lynch to pound teams in the 2nd half when we're already up by 10-14.

Why get PHarvin if we're just going to pass as infrequently as we did in 2012? RWill has a renewed
chemistry with Zach Miller, knows Rice going post and even the 15 yard outs. The O is going to be
more wide open and thus duplicate of 2012 would be disappointing.

 

[SeattleOspreys]

Not the first 5-6 games, but the last 11, sure.

 

[SeattleOspreys]

Irrelevant....

His Final numbers were a 100 QB Rating... and a 69.4 QBR...

Which is high rent district for an entire season...


Nobody is asking anybody to cherry pick his best games etc...


If Russell Wilson ends up with a 100 QB Rating for 2013, with a 69.4 QBR.... I'm sure Seahawk Fans would be exstatic.

I wouldn't be ecstatic because we've seen what RWill could do his final 13 games. Early on, he wasn't
a finished product and still has room for improvement, which is scary and why Hawk fans are
so confident and excited for the season.

Now with a more aggressive D-Co and hopefully, a more balanced O, we don't cough up late leads
and games like we did vs Detroit, Miami, Atlanta.

Those ratings don't mean much to me. Tony Romo has one of the HIGHEST QB ratings in
NFL HISTORY =

 

[yossarian]

The O is going to be
more wide open and thus duplicate of 2012 would be disappointing.[/QUOTE]


I don't have the cite, but Carroll has said a number of times the offense is NOT going to be more wide open.