Would 20 wins (4 more) be good enough to make the Big Dance?

[iowajerms]

Right now, Iowa sits at 9th in the B1G. They have Minn, @Neb, Pur, @Ind, Ill, Neb still left to play. I think 4 wins is do-able.

Iowa is 5 games back from 1st. 6th place in the standing is currently 4 games back. I think if Iowa reaches 20 wins, they would be 6th. The B1G this season is clearly the best conference in basketball.

Could they get 6 bids?

 

[herky]

I'm pretty sure that the B1G will get 6 bids. The question is how Illinois finishes. If they go 3-3 to finish out, that would put them at 20-11 and they'll have wins against Butler, Gonzaga, Ohio St, Indiana, and Minnesota. It would be hard to keep them out of the dance, especially if they do decent in the conference tourney. Realistically, we would most likely need to go 5-1 and a win in the conference tourney to put us at 21-11. That would give us win over either Minnesota or a fucking miracle at Indiana. If one of the wins is at Indiana, 21-11 looks a lot better and I could see the B1G getting 7, maybe 8 if there are no upsets in the Mid Major conference tourneys.

 

[herky]

I just looked at Bracketology and Lunardi has 7 from the B1G in right now. That's everyone above us. He also has 3 from the MVC (Creighton/Wichita St/Indiana St) and 5 from the Pac 12.

 

[iowajerms]

I can see Iowa being top 7 with 20 wins.

 

[rmilia1]

Iowa needs to either A) Win 5 out of 6 and get a B10 tourney win, B) win 4 of 6 and get 2 B10 tourney wins or C) win the B10 tourney. 22 wins is the magic number for this team. RPI of 89, SOS of 99, only 3 top 100 wins, only 2 true road wins, now if Iowa can win 5 of their last 6 they should be a lock but I think a B10 tourney win would seal the deal. The reality is that the Hawks need to win their home games and take care of Nebraska on the road and they will be fine.

 

[HawkeyesRuleURFace]

Need to win NOW!!!

 

[herky]

Trevor Mbakwe is the Jess Settles of Minnesota bball.

 

[iowajerms]

Iowa needs to either A) Win 5 out of 6 and get a B10 tourney win, B) win 4 of 6 and get 2 B10 tourney wins or C) win the B10 tourney. 22 wins is the magic number for this team. RPI of 89, SOS of 99, only 3 top 100 wins, only 2 true road wins, now if Iowa can win 5 of their last 6 they should be a lock but I think a B10 tourney win would seal the deal. The reality is that the Hawks need to win their home games and take care of Nebraska on the road and they will be fine.

If Iowa plays like they did today, I think that could just happen. If they play like they did today at Indiana, Iowa could very well win that one too.

 

[HawkeyesRuleURFace]

They're playing like a different team after that Wisconsin loss

 

[rmilia1]

Alot of fans were so down after the 3-7 start but the team had actually played BETTER than I figured they would. Results were not there to match the performance though. That said, this team is fully capable of going 7-1 to end the year ( 4-1 now). The Hawks are favored in 4 of the alst 5 games and if they do that and get a B10 tourney win then the are in.

 

[herky]

Iowa creeps onto NCAA tournament bubble after win over Minnesota | CollegeBasketballTalk

 

[herky]

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2013

 

[HawkeyesRuleURFace]

I'd love to see us as a 9/10 seed...we would be a 9/10 seed people would need to worry about

 

[herky]

Off topic here -
If they're going to have play in games, then penalize the last 4 in/out. Not these teams from small conferences that will be 16 seeds. They're going to lose anyway so have them lose when everyone is watching.

If you do the last 4 in/out, it gives meaning to 'the bubble'. Play better and you won't have to worry about it. You take these teams and the winner is a 12/13 seed. That way, they have a tough 1st round matchup.

Win and it won't matter.

 

[iowajerms]

I'd love to see us as a 9/10 seed...we would be a 9/10 seed people would need to worry about

The only problem with those seeds is that 9th seed would have the #1 seed 2nd round and the 10th seed would have the #2 seed 2nd round.

I think I would rather have 11th or 12th seed. I'm confident to have them face a 5th or 6th seed first round and then a 3rd or 4th 2nd round. I can see sweet 16 as an 11th or 12th seed where as a 9th or 10th, I see just 1 win.

 

[iowajerms]

Off topic here -
If they're going to have play in games, then penalize the last 4 in/out. Not these teams from small conferences that will be 16 seeds. They're going to lose anyway so have them lose when everyone is watching.

If you do the last 4 in/out, it gives meaning to 'the bubble'. Play better and you won't have to worry about it. You take these teams and the winner is a 12/13 seed. That way, they have a tough 1st round matchup.

Win and it won't matter.

I do understand what you are saying. It may be the only time those guys get any TV time, and on a rare occasion, cause a little drama in the dance. If a team, like Iowa, falls just short in the bubble, then you can bring up other games of the season and say Iowa should have won here and there. They had their TV time during the season, where a team that has had more success in their own level just reaches the ticker.

But I don't quite agree with you. I think the 16th seeds should be the winners of the games involving 65th-68th teams. Now, I don't always agree that those teams are the good teams of schools no bigger than DII. I think the 7th+ bids of major conferences (yes, Iowa would be in that situation this year). Those teams that get the 16th seed today be moved up to 15th seed safety.

 

[herky]

Vegas' Bracketology : Outkick The Coverage

#1 Overall Seed: Florida Region

1) Florida vs 16) Robert Morris (NEC Champion) / Charleston Southern (Big South Champion)
2) Kansas vs 15) South Dakota St (Summit League Champion)
3) Michigan St vs 14) Weber St (Big Sky Champion)
4) VCU vs 13) Akron (MAC Champion)
5) Arizona vs 12) Oklahoma
6) Cincinnati vs 11) Stephen F. Austin (Southland Champion)
7) Iowa vs 10) Kentucky
8) Belmont vs 9) Iowa St

 

[herky]

Basketball Predictions

Iowa is one of the teams that I've been keeping in my bracket projections while most everybody else has them out. The other best example is Virginia. The case against Iowa is pure RPI obsession - their RPI stinks (81st in the nation). But the reason their RPI stinks is the biggest reason that the RPI as a rating system stinks - it's so strongly affected by whether you had some really bad teams on your schedule. Iowa has three nice wins (Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa State) to go with only two RPI 35+ losses (Virginia Tech and Purdue), and their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is 31st. Why does Sagarin think Iowa's resume is 31st best while the RPI has it 81st? Because the Sagarin ratings recognize that beating team #200 isn't significantly more impressive than beating team #340 when you're as good as Iowa, but the RPI doesn't. Iowa has played seven teams with a 250+ RPI, including five outside the RPI Top 300. That's the way you murder your RPI.

The good news for Iowa is that the Selection Committee is not as obsessed with the RPI as the media is. If Iowa gets to 10-8 in Big Ten play (going 4-1 in their final five games - four of which they'll be favored in) then they should be NCAA Tournament bound. If they end up only 9-9 then they'll need to win a game in the Big Ten tournament, but that probably will be enough. Like I said, their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is 31st, and no team with a Sagarin ELO rating higher than 35th (and only three higher than 40th) has missed the Tournament in the past four seasons. Iowa's next game is a must-win, on the road at Nebraska on Thursday.

 

[herky]

Basketball Predictions: W-4 BP68

Same site as linked above, just a different post.

This caught my eye.

6. San Diego State
6. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
6. Cincinnati
6. New Mexico

...

11. Iowa
11. Wichita State
11. Maryland
11. Virginia

If Iowa/New Mexico were matched up, and we know that the selection committee loves putting together interesting combinations, there wouldn't be a fucking thing accomplished in the state that entire day. We'd watch the game, get shitfaced, and be extremely happy or driving to NM to find Alfraud.

:crossesfingers:

 

[ForkEmBucky]

Herk and I were just talking about the B1G tourney, too. That's anybody's trophy at this point. A strong showing by the Hawkeyes will turn heads. The B1G is deep this year and that will get them some points.