Worst Case Scenario

[iknowftbll]

Thread title is simple: what do you consider to be the Broncos worst case scenario in 2017? I've alluded to this on other threads, but I think this group is realistic enough about this team to be able to discuss in its own thread.

Now the easy answer to this question involves injuries to key players. That's an underlying "no shit" to this whole discussion and more or less applies to every team out there. It's also impossible to predict. So for the sake of this conversation let's assume relatively good health even as we discuss "worst" case scenario.

For the Broncos consider:

- Major questions at the O-line. In summary, can they elevate their play from last year?
- Significant questions in the RB group. The more proven RBs have injury questions.
- Significant questions about the run defense. Can the bandaid fixes to the front 7 elevate the run defense into the top 10? (Does it need to be top 10 for the Broncos season to be a success?)
- Realistic questions about the coaching staff. Can this group come together in year one and get more out of a team that the last coaching staff got out of a SB defending champion?
- Realistic questions about the QBs. Can Siemian or Lynch emerge as a legitimate option? Can Siemian build on last season or can Lynch make the jump into the league and beat out the competition?

There's 5 realistic factors that can put a hurting on the Broncos chances in 2017. I've more or less ordered those in the sequence I consider them most likely to derail the Broncos season. Granted if the Broncos have sufficiently addressed all 5 of those, this team is a SB contender. However realistically it's unlikely that they'll just smoothly cover those areas and everything just works out. Now a combination of 2 or more of those factors could make for an ugly season. And if all 5 of those factors come to light, it would be a complete disaster.

But just as unrealistic as it is to believe all 5 factors will be just fine, it is unrealistic to believe all 5 will come to light and destroy the team this year. For example, I do think we'll have a good coaching staff that better uses the skills and talents of the roster rather than tries to force the roster into a system ill suited for the skills and talents. With that in mind, I believe the other 4 areas will be improved TO SOME SMALL DEGREE (some areas better than others).

But if a worst case scenario were to play out, my guess is these factors will have a major hand in it.

Discuss, Broncos fans, because we're not afraid to have these hard conversations the way many other fans are.

 

[cdumler7]

O-Line is to me the big big question mark on the team. Once again a lot of new pieces starting just like the last 2 years. So that means not only not knowing the level of talent but also this team having to go through the growing pains of them all learning to communicate together. So even though I am a huge optimist I still know this unit will have moments of struggle.

I will say for the OL though I love the size/attitude of this unit much more. I don't worry so much about the short yardage situations or them just completely getting shoved into the lap of the QB.

Coaching staff wise it is a bit of a worry to have 3 guys at critical positions on the staff being 1st year guys. They all obviously have plenty of experience in the NFL seeing others do well but still there will probably be some growing pains for them as well.

I think we all know the QB position is a bit of a worry but at the same time I do expect improvements for both Lynch and Siemian over last year now with some experience and I think an offense they are more comfortable with. So not as worried about this one as some.

 

[iknowftbll]

I agree about the QBs, which is why I listed it last. It remains to be seen how these guys will perform in the new system especially given all these other factors. However because of the tools on offense at WR and the potential at TE, and given Siemian's poise and Lynch's physical talents, I think it's possible the Broncos may well have one of the more prolific passing attacks in 2017. I think if they get more out of the TEs up the seems and the RBs in the flats, even with just a small amount of improvement in pass blocking from the O-line the passing game has the potential to be a barn burner.

Or it could flame out. You really never know until it happens in the NFL.

 

[Mingo]

My worst case scenario is for Crash to be right about everything (anything?).

 

[BigKen]

I spent three hours yesterday in Barnes & Noble. I parked myself in the Sports magazine section while my wife meandered around looking for reading material.

All of the preseason, fantasy and prediction magazines are out. Athalon, Lindy, USA, etc., etc., etc.

So I grabbed a copy of every different different magazine and started reading........ZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzz as far as the Fantasy mags go. I ended up actually buying Lindy's and Athalon because a couple of articles caught my attention and I really want to digest them and not try to recall the important stuff. I haven't taken them out of the bag yet, but I will today and plunk myself in the man-cave for a few hours.

I honestly skipped over anything about the Patriots. Even I can only take so much fluff..

I did want to check on several other teams that "I" think present a challenge to the Pats and the first team I look at is always the Broncos, followed by the Steelers, then the Ravens and Dolphins.

Anyway, from what I could take, no one really has a solid take on the Broncos. Predictions range from 8-8 to 11-5. Every mag starts with the same doubt.......Quarterback. Seems most like Siemian and have little faith in Lynch. They all appear to like what's been done with the O-Line. It gets weird when the defense is talked about.

Everyone seems to agree that the biggest problem was not addressed properly, and that was a bad run defense.
The Broncos were something like 26th in run defense and most of the prognosticators have them sitting in the 23-28 spot.

Most of them don't see the Broncos making the playoffs.

As I have said previously, I think the AFC West will be a bloodbath. I know the OP said that injuries are not supposed to be considered, but in the case of the AFC West, I think injuries will be a major consideration when all is said and done.

I have several questions that I don't think anyone can answer for sure.....

1. How seriously will the move to LA affect the Chargers??
2. Have the Chiefs really improved enough to make it back to the playoffs??
3. Were the Raiders "really" as good as they appeared in 2016 or was it a combination of schedule and
health until they lost Carr?
4. How seriously will another coaching change affect the Broncos??
5. Are either Siemian or Lynch the long term answer at QB for the Broncos??

I know it's a lot to digest and discuss, but the Broncos have made some dramatic changes and ""I""
think that they will be in the dogfight until Week 17.

 

[LGM]

My worst case scenario is for Crash to be right about everything (anything?).

That blueberry sauce recipe was pretty damn good though. He was right about that.

Worst case is pretty much a continuation of last year's performance, even with all the changes made.

 

[Mingo]

Worse Case:

Neither QB turns out worth a spit.

The Oline never gels.

DT drops more passes than last year.

Vance Joseph and Mike McCoy get into a fistfight in the middle of a Monday night game - and coaches from both sides jump in.

The Broncos get caught up in the Russian investigation - and Elway has to lawyer up.

Von Miller quits after three games for a career in dancing.

The No Fly Zone gets arrested in a point shaving scandal.

The next return guys turn out really good, but are every other return fumblers.

MacManus devotes himself to beating Matt Prater's Bronco's drinking record (for a kicker).

 

[cdumler7]

I spent three hours yesterday in Barnes & Noble. I parked myself in the Sports magazine section while my wife meandered around looking for reading material.

All of the preseason, fantasy and prediction magazines are out. Athalon, Lindy, USA, etc., etc., etc.

So I grabbed a copy of every different different magazine and started reading........ZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzz as far as the Fantasy mags go. I ended up actually buying Lindy's and Athalon because a couple of articles caught my attention and I really want to digest them and not try to recall the important stuff. I haven't taken them out of the bag yet, but I will today and plunk myself in the man-cave for a few hours.

I honestly skipped over anything about the Patriots. Even I can only take so much fluff..

I did want to check on several other teams that "I" think present a challenge to the Pats and the first team I look at is always the Broncos, followed by the Steelers, then the Ravens and Dolphins.

Anyway, from what I could take, no one really has a solid take on the Broncos. Predictions range from 8-8 to 11-5. Every mag starts with the same doubt.......Quarterback. Seems most like Siemian and have little faith in Lynch. They all appear to like what's been done with the O-Line. It gets weird when the defense is talked about.

Everyone seems to agree that the biggest problem was not addressed properly, and that was a bad run defense.
The Broncos were something like 26th in run defense and most of the prognosticators have them sitting in the 23-28 spot.

Most of them don't see the Broncos making the playoffs.

As I have said previously, I think the AFC West will be a bloodbath. I know the OP said that injuries are not supposed to be considered, but in the case of the AFC West, I think injuries will be a major consideration when all is said and done.

I have several questions that I don't think anyone can answer for sure.....

1. How seriously will the move to LA affect the Chargers??
2. Have the Chiefs really improved enough to make it back to the playoffs??
3. Were the Raiders "really" as good as they appeared in 2016 or was it a combination of schedule and
health until they lost Carr?
4. How seriously will another coaching change affect the Broncos??
5. Are either Siemian or Lynch the long term answer at QB for the Broncos??

I know it's a lot to digest and discuss, but the Broncos have made some dramatic changes and ""I""
think that they will be in the dogfight until Week 17.

Good breakdown. Really with the Broncos it is understandable why people are picking against them. They have one of the bigger unknowns at the most important position compared to the Chiefs, Raiders, and Chargers especially they are just easier to pick because of the QB. These national media guys don't have the time to dig deep on every team in the league so they look for specific things like the QB position and then of course last year's results. Easy to just pick the same teams to continue to be successful.

Heck I remember back in 2015 people were predicting doom and gloom for the Broncos. Some expected us to finish 3rd in the division and miss the playoffs. Well we all know how that turned out. That is what is so great about the NFL is from season to season things can be so different. This is why I don't know how anybody can like the NBA right now. I think most knew exactly who would be in the finals unless there was a huge injury to one of the stars. In the NFL it is impossible to know. Although the Broncos and Patriots have been pretty good bets in the AFC here for the past few years.

 

[nflbronco]

On paper the AFC West looks loaded top to bottom. As most people should know every year has a different feel for all the teams.

1. The Raiders how do they handle big expectations in 17 instead of very little expectations for years.
2. KC still has Andy Reid at the helm he always finds a way to screw things up in crunch time.
3. SD imo could be the sleeper if they stay healthy in 17. I think they have solid corners and Bosa played well. Rivers is a gamer.
4. Denver has so many questions in key areas they are the hardest to predic. in our division. I just want to see strides made as season goes on with O. I want to see a tude on offense this year. I'm just glad we are no longer in Kubes system.

 

[BigKen]

These national media guys don't have the time to dig deep on every team in the league so they look for specific things like the QB position and then of course last year's results. Easy to just pick the same teams to continue to be successful.

I read the Broncos PFW breakdown over a bowl of Honeynut Cheerios this morning. These guys think the Broncos will be 8-8 primarily because Mularkey likes the passing game and they're not sure if Siemian can improve on 18 TDs and 10 INTs last year. They seem to agree that the O-Line will be better this year and they also noted that the defense did add two 300 lb DLs in free agency.

I read the Patriots breakdown last night and of course the big negative is the "potential" injuries to key positions.

Isn't that true of every freakin' football team from Pop Warner to the Pittsburgh Steelers? If all 32 teams have their quarterbacks injured and out for the season in the first quarter of game 1, who's the favorite? What if every team loses their entire offense and entire defense for the entire season in the first quarter of game 1? And to think that somebody is paying these guys about $150,000 a year for that incredible piece of prognostication.

 

[CEH]

As mingo alluded to, not finding the QBOTF from our current crop is my the worst case scenario . Right now I'm at 80% that he is on the roster today
2nd worst case is CJ going down again. A healthy CJ playing in almost a contract year for him will instantly boost this offense .
3rd worst case is the defense continues to give up 1st drive points

 

[Dr Cyanide 28]

people are still sleeping on us I think. The defense is gonna be lit still

 

[Dr Cyanide 28]

gotsis, kerr, peko along with bulked up crick, wolfe... we are gonna better stop the run (assuming ray can help set the edge). Secondary honest to god should be as good or better. Justin Simmons is gonna be well known throughout denver by the end of the year.

 

[58crash]

I read the Broncos PFW breakdown over a bowl of Honeynut Cheerios this morning. These guys think the Broncos will be 8-8 primarily because Mularkey likes the passing game and they're not sure if Siemian can improve on 18 TDs and 10 INTs last year. They seem to agree that the O-Line will be better this year and they also noted that the defense did add two 300 lb DLs in free agency.

I read the Patriots breakdown last night and of course the big negative is the "potential" injuries to key positions.

Isn't that true of every freakin' football team from Pop Warner to the Pittsburgh Steelers? If all 32 teams have their quarterbacks injured and out for the season in the first quarter of game 1, who's the favorite? What if every team loses their entire offense and entire defense for the entire season in the first quarter of game 1? And to think that somebody is paying these guys about $150,000 a year for that incredible piece of prognostication.

So the grey matter in your QB's hair is no problem what so ever ..

 

[58crash]

people are still sleeping on us I think. The defense is gonna be lit still

they will be better than last year I am sure ..

They were tired from SB and it showed Walker was going to be our run stopper in the middle .............

So yes we might improve there

But you guys are assuming our Brilliant DC was just a product of our players .................nope sorry not buying that stock

 

[58crash]

Losing two HOF People on the D side is going to leave holes

 

[LGM]

Losing two HOF People on the D side is going to leave holes

Huh? I'm sure in your mind Phillips is one, and he's good, but not HOF good. Who's the other?
If Ward's defenses could sustain that dominant status more than 2 years, he'd have a case.

 

[iknowftbll]

I have wanted to reply to this for a while and either keep forgetting or don't have the time.

I spent three hours yesterday in Barnes & Noble...

I honestly skipped over anything about the Patriots. Even I can only take so much fluff..

I don't blame you even if you're a Pats fan. The sports media has jizzed in their pants over the Patriots FA signings and draft every chance they got. Granted the Pats loaded up, and sports media would have blathered on about them either way because they pretty much always do, but I can see how even as a Pats fan that gets tiresome.

I did want to check on several other teams that "I" think present a challenge to the Pats and the first team I look at is always the Broncos, followed by the Steelers, then the Ravens and Dolphins.

That's interesting because of the AFC teams that maybe represent a threat to the Pats I'd list these same ones. If you read my playoff predictions, I have the Titans at 13-3 but I'd give a young up and coming Titans team, even a 13-3 one, absolutely no chance against the Patriots in the playoffs. The Chiefs and Raiders are both coming off 12-4 seasons but the Raiders need to demonstrate some staying power and play some defense while the Chiefs, despite being greater than the sum of their parts under Reid, are just not good enough to beat a team like the Pats. The Dolphins may be good enough to swipe a regular season win but they would get smoked in the playoffs by the Pats.

The Ravens didn't even make the playoffs but they are the kind of team that if they do, they always seem to do well. As for the Steelers, while they have that "little brother" complex toward the Patriots, they are still a capable team and the possibility they reverse their fortunes is always there.

As for the Broncos, nobody in the Pats organization or fan base will admit this, but if there's any team out there capable of making the Patriots the "little brother" it's the Broncos. I'll leave it at that because we've discussed this elsewhere.

Anyway, from what I could take, no one really has a solid take on the Broncos. Predictions range from 8-8 to 11-5. Every mag starts with the same doubt.......Quarterback. Seems most like Siemian and have little faith in Lynch. They all appear to like what's been done with the O-Line. It gets weird when the defense is talked about.

That seems reasonable. I think a lot of analysts want to even predict a sub .500 year for the Broncos but can't bring themselves to do it because the defense alone should be good enough to get them to 8-8 even if the offense doesn't improve.

Everyone seems to agree that the biggest problem was not addressed properly, and that was a bad run defense.
The Broncos were something like 26th in run defense and most of the prognosticators have them sitting in the 23-28 spot.

Most of them don't see the Broncos making the playoffs.

I think what a lot of the analysts are missing is that sometimes it isn't the best FA signings that make or break a team, it's the RIGHT signings. And when it comes to signings on defense, I think Elway has proven that he can bring in the right players. The Broncos made names out of players who were signings that nobody even noticed. This doesn't mean I expect them to be as dominant as they were in 2015, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if they cracked the top 10 on run defense.

Meanwhile I can understand why most analysts have them out of the playoffs. Most analysts seem unable to look past the most recent standings when making future predictions. The Raiders will get a lot of hype because of their offense and the Chiefs have been steadily solid under Reid while the Broncos have turned over the coaching department and still have questions as I outlined above.

As I have said previously, I think the AFC West will be a bloodbath. I know the OP said that injuries are not supposed to be considered, but in the case of the AFC West, I think injuries will be a major consideration when all is said and done.

Perhaps. But again, since that's impossible to predict (beyond the acknowledgement that all 4 teams will suffer injuries to their players at some point along the way) I leave it out of these types of discussions.

I have several questions that I don't think anyone can answer for sure.....

1. How seriously will the move to LA affect the Chargers??
2. Have the Chiefs really improved enough to make it back to the playoffs??
3. Were the Raiders "really" as good as they appeared in 2016 or was it a combination of schedule and
health until they lost Carr?
4. How seriously will another coaching change affect the Broncos??
5. Are either Siemian or Lynch the long term answer at QB for the Broncos??

I know it's a lot to digest and discuss, but the Broncos have made some dramatic changes and ""I""
think that they will be in the dogfight until Week 17.

Those are all valid questions and sure to come up from more than one source as we approach the 2017 season. And as I've said repeatedly about the NFL: If anything ever surprises you then you haven't been watching the league for very long. In the NFL just about anything can happen and that seems very true of the AFC West going into this season.

 

[Mingo]

I think when people go back in this thread- they will realize - that Me - the eternal forum optimist - had some pretty good worst case scenarios in this thread.

[you think it is easy - trying to bring mirth to this joyless world?]

 

[iknowftbll]

Interesting read from Sayre Bedinger at Predominantly Orange. Notice how similar his list is to mine?

Denver Broncos: Five reasons to be pessimistic for 2017