whose your top 5 picks for next year

[MilkSpiller22]

Depends.
I say that only because some may be more consistent than others.

That's the same logic that suggests since QB scores the most they are worthy of being picked first.
Again, the position is deep and you can find value after the first round.

I get that many teams employ a committee or don't run as much, yet the fact that most leagues start 2 RB still make their value more crucial to your team.
And this thread is talking about the FIRST 5 PICKS.... would be crazy to pass on RB that early since the drop-off in their value is sudden and significant.

I do think that this season was a little bit of a mirage... Yes, it brought us back to old-school fantasy where Running backs are the most valuable again, but what was weird this season was that there were no major running back injuries... I think it would be a mistake to base your drafting entirely on an outlier season, when the trend has clearly gone to this league being a passing league...

and I don't think the ELITE #1 WR pool is deep at all...

 

[averagejoe]

So who would you go at 4 and 5 then?

If this is directed to me, my top 5 as of January are:

Bell < averaged an insane 157 yards from scrimmage per game.
DJohn < consistent and I see the same type of game plan next season.
EE < Dallas ran more than they passed this season. Wouldn't shock me to see less touches for EE next year.
Howard < averaged 114 yards from scrimmage in the 13 games he started. With a banged up O-line & 3 different QB.
McCoy < undecided here yet. Could be Gordon, Freeman or Rawls here? It's only January.

 

[Trudem]

If this is directed to me, my top 5 as of January are:

Bell < averaged an insane 157 yards from scrimmage per game.
DJohn < consistent and I see the same type of game plan next season.
EE < Dallas ran more than they passed this season. Wouldn't shock me to see less touches for EE next year.
Howard < averaged 114 yards from scrimmage in the 13 games he started. With a banged up O-line & 3 different QB.
McCoy < undecided here yet. Could be Gordon, Freeman or Rawls here? It's only January.

It was. I was just curious.

I think Murray and Lacyin FA will be interesting as well as others.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

If this is directed to me, my top 5 as of January are:

Bell < averaged an insane 157 yards from scrimmage per game.
DJohn < consistent and I see the same type of game plan next season.
EE < Dallas ran more than they passed this season. Wouldn't shock me to see less touches for EE next year.
Howard < averaged 114 yards from scrimmage in the 13 games he started. With a banged up O-line & 3 different QB.
McCoy < undecided here yet. Could be Gordon, Freeman or Rawls here? It's only January.

Very interesting top 5... I am not surprised a Bears fan would have Howard in the top 5... But I do think MOST people don't have Howard in the first round... I do agree he had one hell of a season, but being on a bad team is not going to help his draft value... whether that logic is right or wrong, you know it will be the logic...

 

[averagejoe]

Very interesting top 5... I am not surprised a Bears fan would have Howard in the top 5... But I do think MOST people don't have Howard in the first round... I do agree he had one hell of a season, but being on a bad team is not going to help his draft value... whether that logic is right or wrong, you know it will be the logic...

Well, Milk, I'm not trying to play the homer card.
LeVeon Bell played in the same amount of games and on a better offense as Howard and has a whopping 1 TD more than Howard.
TD's are tough to predict. Can't bank on them from year-to year.
Can safely say that it has more to do with the fact that despite being putrid on offense, they stuck with the run. And teams still couldn't stop him.
And I hope I am alone in my assessment of Howard.

 

[averagejoe]

I think Murray and Lacyin FA will be interesting as well as others.

I don't trust Lacy.
If he can't cut it in Green Bay, is he really going to be better on a comparable or worse team?
I don't see it.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Well, Milk, I'm not trying to play the homer card.
LeVeon Bell played in the same amount of games and on a better offense as Howard and has a whopping 1 TD more than Howard.
TD's are tough to predict. Can't bank on them from year-to year.
Can safely say that it has more to do with the fact that despite being putrid on offense, they stuck with the run. And teams still couldn't stop him.
And I hope I am alone in my assessment of Howard.

I think no matter what you are playing the homer card... same why a giant fan will take Odell over Antonio brown... You are right that he had a great season and a great per game average... BUT it is hard to trust a sophomore after a season of under 16 games of starting on a terrible team...

and the team is going to hurt his value...

 

[Trudem]

I don't trust Lacy.
If he can't cut it in Green Bay, is he really going to be better on a comparable or worse team?
I don't see it.

I think the Packers bring him back for cheap. The talent is there he just has to stay healthy and keep the weight down a bit. I am hoping seeing this team perform well without him will light a fire under his ass.

 

[averagejoe]

True. It something to weigh to be sure.
But as of now that's where I have him.

I know many see the Bears as a floundering franchise.
And maybe this is homerism, but there were injuries galore on both sides of the ball.
Only 3 skill players played on more than 60% of the offensive snaps. (Howard was one of them.)
They had their worst record in like 40 years.
I don't see them being as bad in 2017.
Any improvement - even a little one - is still a positive for Howard IMO.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

True. It something to weigh to be sure.
But as of now that'w where I have him.

I know many see the Bears as a floundering franchise.
And maybe this homerism, but there were injuries galore on both sides of the ball.
Only 3 skill players played on more then 60% of the offensive snaps. (Howard was one of them.)
They had their worst record in like 40 years.
I don't see them being as bad in 2017.
Any improvement - even a little one - is still a positive for Howard IMO.

I think Howard is going to be one of the better RBs next year. Not Bell/Johnson/Zeke good but after those three I got him with Gordan/ Freeman level.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

True. It something to weigh to be sure.
But as of now that's where I have him.

I know many see the Bears as a floundering franchise.
And maybe this homerism, but there were injuries galore on both sides of the ball.
Only 3 skill players played on more then 60% of the offensive snaps. (Howard was one of them.)
They had their worst record in like 40 years.
I don't see them being as bad in 2017.
Any improvement - even a little one - is still a positive for Howard IMO.

I do agree... And I understand the optimism... But can you draft a player so high with such optimism?? its one of those if your right you feel all warm and fuzzy, but if you are wrong, you are going to be so angry at yourself for taking such a big VALUE risk...

 

[averagejoe]

I do agree... And I understand the optimism... But can you draft a player so high with such optimism?? its one of those if your right you feel all warm and fuzzy, but if you are wrong, you are going to be so angry at yourself for taking such a big VALUE risk...

Good question.
Maybe 2016 is a poor example, but if you look at previous seasons, many of the top RB played on poor offensive teams.
AP, McCoy, Freeman, Gurley.
Some of the best RB of all time played on bad offenses.
Bad teams tend to lean on their RB.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Good question.
Maybe 2016 is a poor example, but if you look at previous seasons, many of the top RB played on poor offensive teams.
AP, McCoy, Freeman, Gurley.
Some of the best RB of all time played on bad offenses.
Bad teams tend to lean on their RB.

Yes, you are right, but the 4 players you brought up, one is a HOFer, one has had success in the past, one was the BEST running back the previous season in points, and one was the top prospect... Howard is none of that yet...

 

[jeffro151]

Well, Milk, I'm not trying to play the homer card.
LeVeon Bell played in the same amount of games and on a better offense as Howard and has a whopping 1 TD more than Howard.
TD's are tough to predict. Can't bank on them from year-to year.
Can safely say that it has more to do with the fact that despite being putrid on offense, they stuck with the run. And teams still couldn't stop him.
And I hope I am alone in my assessment of Howard.

I don't think you are being a homer. If Howard is the starter from game 1, it's quite possible he earns rookie of the year honors.

 

[averagejoe]

Howard is none of that yet...

True. But the "formula" is there. Bad team, run-first philosophy, and Howard has done well in his audition.

 

[TREFF]

Well, of course the first question to be answered is whether you are playing standard or any type of PPR...

in standard, backs are generally much more valuable than receivers... while PPR, the opposite...

When it comes to 3 down backs who usually stay on the field for obvious passing situations like Bell, like DJ, like Zeke, it's not the opposite at all, in fact it only emphasise and increases that value, as yet again, the ppr aspect raises most all WR's scoring, watering down even further the elite ones elite value.

The opposite effect doesn't kick in until we start talking about guys like Blount.

 

[eaglesnut]

True. It something to weigh to be sure.
But as of now that's where I have him.

I know many see the Bears as a floundering franchise.
And maybe this is homerism, but there were injuries galore on both sides of the ball.
Only 3 skill players played on more than 60% of the offensive snaps. (Howard was one of them.)
They had their worst record in like 40 years.
I don't see them being as bad in 2017.
Any improvement - even a little one - is still a positive for Howard IMO.

Who's going to be the QB for majority of the games? That'll make a difference.

Howard is going to get a lot of love by draft time. Sophomore's are scary though.

 

[leftypower]

Good question.
Maybe 2016 is a poor example, but if you look at previous seasons, many of the top RB played on poor offensive teams.
AP, McCoy, Freeman, Gurley.
Some of the best RB of all time played on bad offenses.
Bad teams tend to lean on their RB.

After passing on DJ in MBBRL this past yr for Gurley (a mistake which ended up sending me to relegation) - a very poor OL is a very poor OL, and no matter the real, or perceived, talent of the runner, you will not get the value you seek with a first rd pick. (Added that to my 'lessons learned' for next yr.)

 

[Sam Sportboy]

Very interesting top 5... I am not surprised a Bears fan would have Howard in the top 5... But I do think MOST people don't have Howard in the first round... I do agree he had one hell of a season, but being on a bad team is not going to help his draft value... whether that logic is right or wrong, you know it will be the logic...

Just to jump in here but I bet Howard has a first round ADP by the middle of August next year..............and this is coming from a guy who damn near lost all faith and was a click away from dropping him. If the dude can improve at all in the passing game, he could easily end up top 5.

Spoiler

I can't stand tBears

 

[averagejoe]

Who's going to be the QB for majority of the games? That'll make a difference.

Will it?
Cutler started 5 games.
So did Hoyer.
Barkley started 6 games.

Here's how Howard did on average yards from scrimmage for each:
Cutler = 114.5
Hoyer = 89.3
Barkley = 121.7