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Cave_Johnson
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Get it? Independence Day! Because Idaho and NMSU were both independent for a year back in 2013! One of them will be independent again in 2018 while the other will fall back into more irrelevance. That's another issue though. Anyway, that's all the movie connection I got for this one. In hindsight this movie theme thing wasn't the best idea. But I'll power through it. You know what they say, "When life throws you a curve ball, grab it by the pussy".
Boy howdy was that a game last week against ULM. I definitely started getting some deja vu at the beginning after the Vandals forced a few big turnovers and weren't able to capitalize. Up 16-0 after one quarter and I still was positive they were going to let that one get away. They did end up winning the game thanks to Austin Rehkow's last second field goal set up by a huge 40 yard run by Aaron Duckworth, but the fact that they weren't able to put the Warhawks away was concerning.
The defense once again started strong and faltered late. Kaden Elliss forced yet another first quarter turnover (he's done that 3 games in a row now) and the Idaho secondary added two more key interceptions that lead to the Vandals winning the turnover battle 4-0.
Idaho's special teams deserve the credit for that win though. Rehkow nailed 4 FGs and consistently pinned ULM deep in their own territory. Oh, and Idaho blocked a punt that was returned for a TD. That hasn't happened since the 2011 game at Virginia.
It's probably not worth going over too much else about that game. Same shit, different week. Inconsistent offense that can't finish drives, defense that only plays well in the first quarter ( still an improvement from last year though), and plenty of shooting themselves in the foot. You can get away with that against a bad team like ULM though. Same can't be said for a decent, highly improved squad in NMSU.
To the NMSU game this week, the number of similarities between these two teams is really astounding. Yes there's the whole kicked out of the Sun Belt thing. But aside from that both teams have won games against MWC teams they were supposed to lose to and both teams have looked like complete trash when they've played good teams.
NMSU comes into this one after an unexpected home win against ULL. Their other win was against rival UNM. They also have a blowout loss to Troy and two losses to bad UTEP and Kentucky teams on their resume this season.
Despite all that, this is still an underrated team, and it's one that should contend for bowl eligibility. Like Idaho, their defense is bottom 20 in FBS although the Aggies don't force nearly as many turnovers. Offensively they've been much better than Idaho and that's with Larry Rose III missing the first 3 games of the season. Look for Rose to have yet another big game against the Vandal defense that will be without Tony Lashley for the first half of the game. Yes, the Sun Belt refs love their "targeting" calls and even tried to kick out two Vandal players on the same play last week. I guess they were feeling generous because Khalin Smith ended up being saved from the ejection.
I could go on for awhile about how retarded the NCAA's "targeting" rule is. I'll just leave it at this:
99% of these "targeting" calls are not malicious and in no way, shape, or form warrant an ejection. The majority are guys just trying to make a play and probably half are caused by the ball carrier lowering his head into the opposing player. If you're going to insist this horseshit stay in the college football rulebook at least make it possible to overturn the ejection while keeping a call for a hit to the head. Right now it's all or nothing on both sides and it's fucking stupid.
Where was I? Oh yeah, the Holocaust never happened. No...wait that's not right....ah here we are:
Idaho can't afford to come out slow on offense and stall in the red zone in this one. NMSU will score 40+ in this game and the Idaho offense is going to have to keep up. That means letting Rehkow rest his leg for once.
Really a lower scoring game will benefit Idaho here so I'd expect an offensive strategy that involves controlling the clock and keeping possession of the ball to keep NMSU's offense off the field. Honestly I feel like I could just paste the same keys to the game that I used last week. So I will.
1. Establish the run and stick to it. Feed Duckworth the ball behind the big O-line, control the clock, and keep those chains moving.
2. Utilize the middle of the field in the passing game. Linehan almost looks scared to throw down the middle of the field this year. It seems like 75% of the passing plays end up with the ball being thrown outside the hash marks. I guess he feels like those throws are safer but damn, you gotta get the ball to Cowan in the seems and Hightower on the crossing routes to really run this offense effectively.
3. Score TDs in the red zone. I harped on this last week. Idaho had two chances early on to score TDs and put Troy in a big hole. They didn't and it only took one big play for the Trojans to swing all the momentum in their favor after they went up 7-6.
4. Make tackles in space. This is another issue that has plagued the team all year. Just can't seem to bring many ball carriers down with the first guy.
5. Catch the damn ball when it hits you in the hands. What else needs to be said here? When Linehan is able to hit guys in stride they seem to drop the rock half the time. This is basic shit.
Literally nothing new.
Prediction:
This is yet another game that Idaho should win on paper. The talent is all there for the Vandals, but the mental toughness just isn't. If Idaho can play a full 60 minutes this is their's to lose.
Final Score:
Idaho 44
NMSU 42
Rehkow with the last second FG to win it again. Mostly taking Idaho here because NMSU QB Tyler Rogers is INT prone and Idaho is a top 10 defense in terms of interceptions. Might be smart for the Aggies to just run the ball every play since Rose is guaranteed to average 8+ ypc in this one. These Sun Belt coaches though man, they make some dumbass decisions sometimes. I'm going to bet it takes Martin too long to figure this out.
I'm going to take a page from Russ Wilson here and start ending every preview with the following:
"Go Vandals"
Boy howdy was that a game last week against ULM. I definitely started getting some deja vu at the beginning after the Vandals forced a few big turnovers and weren't able to capitalize. Up 16-0 after one quarter and I still was positive they were going to let that one get away. They did end up winning the game thanks to Austin Rehkow's last second field goal set up by a huge 40 yard run by Aaron Duckworth, but the fact that they weren't able to put the Warhawks away was concerning.
The defense once again started strong and faltered late. Kaden Elliss forced yet another first quarter turnover (he's done that 3 games in a row now) and the Idaho secondary added two more key interceptions that lead to the Vandals winning the turnover battle 4-0.
Idaho's special teams deserve the credit for that win though. Rehkow nailed 4 FGs and consistently pinned ULM deep in their own territory. Oh, and Idaho blocked a punt that was returned for a TD. That hasn't happened since the 2011 game at Virginia.
It's probably not worth going over too much else about that game. Same shit, different week. Inconsistent offense that can't finish drives, defense that only plays well in the first quarter ( still an improvement from last year though), and plenty of shooting themselves in the foot. You can get away with that against a bad team like ULM though. Same can't be said for a decent, highly improved squad in NMSU.
To the NMSU game this week, the number of similarities between these two teams is really astounding. Yes there's the whole kicked out of the Sun Belt thing. But aside from that both teams have won games against MWC teams they were supposed to lose to and both teams have looked like complete trash when they've played good teams.
NMSU comes into this one after an unexpected home win against ULL. Their other win was against rival UNM. They also have a blowout loss to Troy and two losses to bad UTEP and Kentucky teams on their resume this season.
Despite all that, this is still an underrated team, and it's one that should contend for bowl eligibility. Like Idaho, their defense is bottom 20 in FBS although the Aggies don't force nearly as many turnovers. Offensively they've been much better than Idaho and that's with Larry Rose III missing the first 3 games of the season. Look for Rose to have yet another big game against the Vandal defense that will be without Tony Lashley for the first half of the game. Yes, the Sun Belt refs love their "targeting" calls and even tried to kick out two Vandal players on the same play last week. I guess they were feeling generous because Khalin Smith ended up being saved from the ejection.
I could go on for awhile about how retarded the NCAA's "targeting" rule is. I'll just leave it at this:
99% of these "targeting" calls are not malicious and in no way, shape, or form warrant an ejection. The majority are guys just trying to make a play and probably half are caused by the ball carrier lowering his head into the opposing player. If you're going to insist this horseshit stay in the college football rulebook at least make it possible to overturn the ejection while keeping a call for a hit to the head. Right now it's all or nothing on both sides and it's fucking stupid.
Where was I? Oh yeah, the Holocaust never happened. No...wait that's not right....ah here we are:
Idaho can't afford to come out slow on offense and stall in the red zone in this one. NMSU will score 40+ in this game and the Idaho offense is going to have to keep up. That means letting Rehkow rest his leg for once.
Really a lower scoring game will benefit Idaho here so I'd expect an offensive strategy that involves controlling the clock and keeping possession of the ball to keep NMSU's offense off the field. Honestly I feel like I could just paste the same keys to the game that I used last week. So I will.
1. Establish the run and stick to it. Feed Duckworth the ball behind the big O-line, control the clock, and keep those chains moving.
2. Utilize the middle of the field in the passing game. Linehan almost looks scared to throw down the middle of the field this year. It seems like 75% of the passing plays end up with the ball being thrown outside the hash marks. I guess he feels like those throws are safer but damn, you gotta get the ball to Cowan in the seems and Hightower on the crossing routes to really run this offense effectively.
3. Score TDs in the red zone. I harped on this last week. Idaho had two chances early on to score TDs and put Troy in a big hole. They didn't and it only took one big play for the Trojans to swing all the momentum in their favor after they went up 7-6.
4. Make tackles in space. This is another issue that has plagued the team all year. Just can't seem to bring many ball carriers down with the first guy.
5. Catch the damn ball when it hits you in the hands. What else needs to be said here? When Linehan is able to hit guys in stride they seem to drop the rock half the time. This is basic shit.
Literally nothing new.
Prediction:
This is yet another game that Idaho should win on paper. The talent is all there for the Vandals, but the mental toughness just isn't. If Idaho can play a full 60 minutes this is their's to lose.
Final Score:
Idaho 44
NMSU 42
Rehkow with the last second FG to win it again. Mostly taking Idaho here because NMSU QB Tyler Rogers is INT prone and Idaho is a top 10 defense in terms of interceptions. Might be smart for the Aggies to just run the ball every play since Rose is guaranteed to average 8+ ypc in this one. These Sun Belt coaches though man, they make some dumbass decisions sometimes. I'm going to bet it takes Martin too long to figure this out.
I'm going to take a page from Russ Wilson here and start ending every preview with the following:
"Go Vandals"
